Can the Sox fix the bullpen?

[Eminor3rd]

Not to mention, Brandon is the exact opposite type of pitcher you want in USCF.

 

He's different now -- he started throwing sinkers and cutters and now he's a groundballer. He's a really interesting career turn-around guy because he re-invented himself. There have been some cool articles about him this year describing it.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah, it's hard to argue that being the team to snatch up McCarthy on an incentive deal early so that you can move Floyd to someplace like Toronto isn't a great idea. It's not like you're asking either of them to be mid-rotation guys -- even a disaster has you with a revolving door 5th man, which is a pretty common thing. The upside, though, is really enticing. MCarthy has pitched like a 2/3 guy when healthy lately.

[Eminor3rd]

Part of the reason Baltimore's bullpen won a ton of games is because their rotation was a complete joke nearly all season. Their bullpen was snatching wins up that most team's starters would have been getting. Secondly, the volatility or RP performance from year to year is a reliable condition, and it makes it very risky and almost always bad to spend a lot of resources on depth guys there. You'd like to have an anchor or two, but the rest of it is just a crapshoot. You need cheap talent there, and we have it already.

[cabiness42]

Yeah, it's hard to argue that being the team to snatch up McCarthy on an incentive deal early so that you can move Floyd to someplace like Toronto isn't a great idea. It's not like you're asking either of them to be mid-rotation guys -- even a disaster has you with a revolving door 5th man, which is a pretty common thing. The upside, though, is really enticing. MCarthy has pitched like a 2/3 guy when healthy lately.

 

My biggest worry is that if the Sox sign McCarthy, teams will KNOW that we need to unload Gavin and will lowball offers. Would be nice to be able to get both deals worked out at the exact same time though I realize that's difficult to pull off.

[southsider2k5]

My biggest worry is that if the Sox sign McCarthy, teams will KNOW that we need to unload Gavin and will lowball offers. Would be nice to be able to get both deals worked out at the exact same time though I realize that's difficult to pull off.

 

Besides, if McCarthy is that hot of a commodity, and so cheap to sign, why would they trade something for Floyd, when they could just sign Brandon themselves?

[2nd_city_saint787]

My biggest worry is that if the Sox sign McCarthy, teams will KNOW that we need to unload Gavin and will lowball offers. Would be nice to be able to get both deals worked out at the exact same time though I realize that's difficult to pull off.

 

Me thinks there may already be something in the works if they get BMac

[VAfan]

We're using win-loss record for bullpen analysis? Yikes...

 

I consider the loss column to be much more important for the bullpen than the win column. For wins, the team has to rally from behind or a tie. But losses mean the bullpen was given the lead or tie but couldn't hold it.

 

The Sox bullpen lost 25 games. Next worst was the Tigers at 23, then Tampa Bay 21, LA 20, NY 17, Texas 14, Oakland 14, O's 11.

 

That's a 14-game difference from the O's, who won only 8 more games than us.

An 11 game difference from the A's and Texas, who won 9 and 8 more games.

An 8 game difference from NY, who won 10 more games.

A 5 game difference from LA, who won 4 more games.

A 4 game difference from Tampa, who won 5 more games.

A 2 game difference from Detroit, who won 3 more games.

 

I think you can make a pretty good case that the Sox' difference in bullpen losses is one of the primary reasons we missed the playoffs this year.

 

I can also "guarantee" that if the Sox bullpen loses 25 games again in 2013, we will have no chance of making the playoffs.

 

The Sox have to get the bullpen losses down.

 

The question is how to do that? I'm all for keeping Reed, and Veal, and Jones. Personally, I would find a way to trade Matt Thornton, who didn't just melt down in 2012. He also stunk in 2011. I would give him away if someone would take his contract.

 

I also like the idea of getting a veteran closer. The only one mentioned on this thread has been Brian Wilson. I'm not sure if he's the answer. In 2011 he was 6-4 with 5 blown saves. His stat line that season isn't significantly better than Reed's in 2012, and in some areas it's worse.

 

But if the Sox were able to dump Thornton's salary, then use it towards signing an experienced closer, Reed, Jones, Veal, and Crain would make a more formidable set up crew. Add one more lefty and a long-man and you'd have a nice 7-man bullpen that wouldn't cost too much, but could help us win more games than it lost.

[VAfan]

Part of the reason Baltimore's bullpen won a ton of games is because their rotation was a complete joke nearly all season. Their bullpen was snatching wins up that most team's starters would have been getting. Secondly, the volatility or RP performance from year to year is a reliable condition, and it makes it very risky and almost always bad to spend a lot of resources on depth guys there. You'd like to have an anchor or two, but the rest of it is just a crapshoot. You need cheap talent there, and we have it already.

 

This might explain Baltimore's wins. It does not explain Baltimore's AL-low 11 bullpen losses. That's the stat worth paying attention to. Baltimore's bullpen blew almost no games, and gave the team whatever time it needed to come back to win games.

[Eminor3rd]

Besides, if McCarthy is that hot of a commodity, and so cheap to sign, why would they trade something for Floyd, when they could just sign Brandon themselves?

 

Right, that's why hopefully the Sox jump on it. If you get that deal done, you increase Gavin's market. The advantage that the Sox have is that they're already $9.5m into that 4th pitching slot, whereas many other teams may be looking to guarantee less than that to McCarthy. So the Sox could feasibly pay him up to that much money if they're confident they can move Floyd. Ideally, they want to save what they can, but they gain the Floyd haul even if the money is a wash.

[Eminor3rd]

This might explain Baltimore's wins. It does not explain Baltimore's AL-low 11 bullpen losses. That's the stat worth paying attention to. Baltimore's bullpen blew almost no games, and gave the team whatever time it needed to come back to win games.

 

Sure it does. If the starting rotation is bad, the bullpen inherits fewer leads to blow in addition to more innings. More innings leads to more chances to regain the lead and take a win, fewer chances to blow a lead and take a loss. That's the problem with context stats, you can't reduce the variables enough to determine causality.

[VAfan]

My biggest worry is that if the Sox sign McCarthy, teams will KNOW that we need to unload Gavin and will lowball offers. Would be nice to be able to get both deals worked out at the exact same time though I realize that's difficult to pull off.

 

I would not want to replace Gavin Floyd in our rotation with Brandon McCarthy.

 

McCarthy has one season of 170 IPs. Next highest is 111. Then 102.

 

The FEWEST innings Gavin Floyd has pitched in the last 5 years is this year's 168, which happened because of his elbow issues. Otherwise it's 193, 187, 193, 206.

 

McCarthy is not a reliable season-long starter.

 

Plus, McCarthy has very significant home-away split differences. At the Oakland Coliseum, his ERA is in the mid-2's. Away, in 2011 it was 3.99, in 2012 it was 3.66. Meanwhile, over the last two years, pitching at US Cellular has hurt Floyd's stats.

 

So, if McCarthy were cheap, he might be good insurance in case: Danks' return is delayed, or Quintana/Santiago don't pitch as well out of the 5th spot as they did this year. He is no replacement for Gavin Floyd, however. At least not a reliable one.

[Eminor3rd]

White Sox GM Rick Hahn expects to hear from many teams interested in acquiring some of Chicago’s starting pitching depth, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com reports. “We will absolutely listen on any ideas and trades will be one of the avenues we pursue to potentially fill some of our holes,” Hahn said. Gavin Floyd could be among the pitchers drawing trade interest this year, Hayes writes

[VAfan]

Sure it does. If the starting rotation is bad, the bullpen inherits fewer leads to blow in addition to more innings. More innings leads to more chances to regain the lead and take a win, fewer chances to blow a lead and take a loss. That's the problem with context stats, you can't reduce the variables enough to determine causality.

 

So, let's see if I have this right. The Baltimore bullpen finished 32-11 w-l in relief because their starting staff gave them more chances, and in most of those games they were already behind. But that's not better than the Sox bullpen, which finished 25-25 w-l in relief, even though the Sox starters were better and so turned over more games where we were ahead or tied?

 

To my way of looking at it, to get to 32-11, the Baltimore bullpen had to pitch well enough for the team to rally to victories 32 times, and had to hold on when they did catch up enough to lose only 11 games. Both numbers indicate significantly better bullpen performance than the Sox' got, which lost 25 times when it was handed a lead or a tie.

 

If someone wanted to do the game-by-game breakdown, I think it would bear this out.

[Dick Allen]

I would not want to replace Gavin Floyd in our rotation with Brandon McCarthy.

 

McCarthy has one season of 170 IPs. Next highest is 111. Then 102.

 

The FEWEST innings Gavin Floyd has pitched in the last 5 years is this year's 168, which happened because of his elbow issues. Otherwise it's 193, 187, 193, 206.

 

McCarthy is not a reliable season-long starter.

 

Plus, McCarthy has very significant home-away split differences. At the Oakland Coliseum, his ERA is in the mid-2's. Away, in 2011 it was 3.99, in 2012 it was 3.66. Meanwhile, over the last two years, pitching at US Cellular has hurt Floyd's stats.

 

So, if McCarthy were cheap, he might be good insurance in case: Danks' return is delayed, or Quintana/Santiago don't pitch as well out of the 5th spot as they did this year. He is no replacement for Gavin Floyd, however. At least not a reliable one.

If he could give you 170 innings, he is most likely an upgrade from Floyd, but he could give you less than 100 and no one would or at least should be surprised. I guess if they do sign him, it will be Herm's big job in 2013,

[VAfan]

Right, that's why hopefully the Sox jump on it. If you get that deal done, you increase Gavin's market. The advantage that the Sox have is that they're already $9.5m into that 4th pitching slot, whereas many other teams may be looking to guarantee less than that to McCarthy. So the Sox could feasibly pay him up to that much money if they're confident they can move Floyd. Ideally, they want to save what they can, but they gain the Floyd haul even if the money is a wash.

 

I'll reply here as well. McCarthy is not a reliable replacement for Floyd. In 7 seasons, he's averaging less than 100 IPs per year (654 innings total since 2005). Floyd has pitched 1127 innings since 2004. Both guys are 29 (Floyd is older by 6 months.).

[Eminor3rd]

So, let's see if I have this right. The Baltimore bullpen finished 32-11 w-l in relief because their starting staff gave them more chances, and in most of those games they were already behind. But that's not better than the Sox bullpen, which finished 25-25 w-l in relief, even though the Sox starters were better and so turned over more games where we were ahead or tied?

 

To my way of looking at it, to get to 32-11, the Baltimore bullpen had to pitch well enough for the team to rally to victories 32 times, and had to hold on when they did catch up enough to lose only 11 games. Both numbers indicate significantly better bullpen performance than the Sox' got, which lost 25 times when it was handed a lead or a tie.

 

If someone wanted to do the game-by-game breakdown, I think it would bear this out.

 

I'm not saying that the Baltimore pen wasn't better, I'm just saying that looking at W-L is a bad way to tell because W-L is a proxy, not a measure of isolated performance. How much more/less run support did the Baltimore bullpen get? What was the difference in leverage index? Which teams did they beat and which did they lose to? If you want to compare the bullpens, you should look at how their pitchers actually performed.

[VAfan]

If he could give you 170 innings, he is most likely an upgrade from Floyd, but he could give you less than 100 and no one would or at least should be surprised. I guess if they do sign him, it will be Herm's big job in 2013,

 

I don't even trust him as an upgrade over 170 innings, which I would consider unlikely. The main reason is that he's only been good in Oakland. When he pitched in Texas, he wasn't any better than Floyd, even at markedly fewer innings per year.

 

Gavin Floyd is an enigmatic pitcher. For stretches, he's horrible. But for other stretches, he's the best pitcher the Sox have -- better than Peavy, almost as good as Sale. For the money we've signed him for, I hope the Sox give Floyd one more chance to put together a season made up of more of the good stretches than the bad ones. His upside seems pretty significant to me, whereas about the worst we get is a guy who eats innings, wins in double figures, but also loses about as often as he wins. For a 4th or 5th starter, that's a lot better than we might get if we cut him loose.

[Dick Allen]

I'll reply here as well. McCarthy is not a reliable replacement for Floyd. In 7 seasons, he's averaging less than 100 IPs per year (654 innings total since 2005). Floyd has pitched 1127 innings since 2004. Both guys are 29 (Floyd is older by 6 months.).

Don't really care about 3 or 4 or 5 years ago. But the point is true, chances are Floyd will give you more innings, the question is how many less would BMac give you. Assuming they are better innings, if he works for less money, and you can get something useful for Floyd, you can live with fewer innings as long as its still a,decent nimbler.

[Eminor3rd]

I'll reply here as well. McCarthy is not a reliable replacement for Floyd. In 7 seasons, he's averaging less than 100 IPs per year (654 innings total since 2005). Floyd has pitched 1127 innings since 2004. Both guys are 29 (Floyd is older by 6 months.).

 

Right but now Floyd has elbow issues. His lowest season was his most recent. McCarthy missed most of last season with a freak head injury, which would have to be considered not to be a long-term issue if someone is willing to sign him.

 

I don't think career innings makes sense here, I think we have to look at the situation and see how likely it is to be a problem going forward.

[VAfan]

I'm not saying that the Baltimore pen wasn't better, I'm just saying that looking at W-L is a bad way to tell because W-L is a proxy, not a measure of isolated performance. How much more/less run support did the Baltimore bullpen get? What was the difference in leverage index? Which teams did they beat and which did they lose to? If you want to compare the bullpens, you should look at how their pitchers actually performed.

 

Fair enough. I'm not saying my analysis is the most sophisticated one available.

 

However, I do think my point is still salient. The Sox need much better bullpen performance if they want to contend next year, and this is probably the area where the most difference could be made, since the rotation and lineup seem pretty set.

[VAfan]

Right but now Floyd has elbow issues. His lowest season was his most recent. McCarthy missed most of last season with a freak head injury, which would have to be considered not to be a long-term issue if someone is willing to sign him.

 

I don't think career innings makes sense here, I think we have to look at the situation and see how likely it is to be a problem going forward.

 

Brain surgery doesn't concern you at least as much as a first-time elbow issue? This is one area where neither of us have enough information to evaluate the health of the respective players.

 

However, I strongly disagree about discounting career innings. McCarthy is just not a proven full-time starter, despite only 1 less year in the league than Gavin Floyd. Floyd has done it 5 years in a row. In US Cellular.

[VAfan]

Don't really care about 3 or 4 or 5 years ago. But the point is true, chances are Floyd will give you more innings, the question is how many less would BMac give you. Assuming they are better innings, if he works for less money, and you can get something useful for Floyd, you can live with fewer innings as long as its still a,decent nimbler.

 

I'm not sure you can assume McCarthy even gives you better innings in US Cellular. He wasn't any better than Floyd in Texas. For example, in 2007, he started 22 games, pitched 101 innings, with a whip of 1.56 and an era of 4.87. In 2009, he started 17 games, 97 innings, whip 1.36 and era 4.62.

 

Since becoming a full-time starter, Gavin Floyd hasn't had any year as bad as those two McCarthy years.

[Eminor3rd]

Fair enough. I'm not saying my analysis is the most sophisticated one available.

 

However, I do think my point is still salient. The Sox need much better bullpen performance if they want to contend next year, and this is probably the area where the most difference could be made, since the rotation and lineup seem pretty set.

 

I agree with that -- the pen could have been much better and it includes bigger holes that would be easier to upgrade than those in the rotation/lineup, 3B notwithstanding. I wonder, though, how much of that bullpen performance can be efficiently improved through acquisition, given how volatile RP performance tends to be from year to year. I'm afraid the Sox could pay up big (either in cash or prospects) for a couple guys coming off good years who are nearly as likely to flop as to dominate, when their current pen may not actually be facing much worse odds.

 

This is interesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Just using the Orioles/Sox comparison, their bullpens produced 6.4 and 3.6 WAR, respectively. So, that basically means that those values were the average amount of marginal wins that those teams' bullpens would produce given their numbers in the current run environment. Obviously, the reality is context driven and much was different, as the Orioles pen ended up winning them many more than 6 games. But, numbers-wise, that pen's performance was only a 2-3 wins better than Chicago's on average, which is the way you have to look at it if you want to project success, since you can't predict context.

 

I think what this shows is that the bullpen can really save you or kill you whether it's good or bad, depending on how situations and events play out. This is just an area that's really difficult to predict and thus very risky to invest in. The range of outcomes may be very similar whether the Sox go in with the league-average-ish pen they have now or with a costly one based on guys that were good last year.

 

It's just a scary place to put your resources, and I think I'd be more comfortable rolling this year's crop out than taking that type of a gamble. I'd rather see those resources put toward 3B/C/SP, even if the money won't go quite as far.

[Eminor3rd]

Brain surgery doesn't concern you at least as much as a first-time elbow issue?

 

It's not that, it's just that it's probably easier to evaluate whether or not it affects him immediately (based on his coordination, etc.) when compared to elbow pain, which is something that almost always continues to get worse.

 

I mean, I'm not confident arguing that McCarthy is safe going forward, but I do think it's closer to a wash than the career IP numbers suggest, and I would be more confident in the Sox staff's assessment of McCarthy this year than of Floyd this year, just based on the type of injuries.

[witesoxfan]

I'm just focused on two numbers -- wins and losses in relief. Here's how the teams ranked, by wins over losses in relief, then by fewest bullpen losses.

/facepalm

 

The Royals had the best bullpen in the Majors. By far. Their W-L? 25-21. They had a mediocre to slightly above average offense and a horrible, horrible rotation. That's why their W-L was so mediocre.

 

I think bullpen losses are important.

 

I'm not singling you out but with all the "new" stats, we are told you can't judge a SP by wins and losses, you can't judge RP by wins or losses, saves are supposedly a flawed stat. How are we supposed to know who is a good pitched and who isn't? You can't really go by ERA for RP because one bad outing can skew their ERA. I think I even heard Steve Stone say in a broadcast that you can tell a good pitcher by the number of unearned runs he's allowed.

 

To me, if a SP is 19-7, I don't care what his ERA is. Same with my closer. If he saves 40+ and only 2-3 blown saves, he can have an ERA of 4.5+.

 

/double facepalm

 

Jake Peavy went 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA and a 4.4 fWAR in 219 innings.

Phil Hughes went 16-13 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.9 fWAR in 191.1 innings.

 

For relievers, you figure out how many baserunners they allow. WHIP. Strikeouts prevent balls from being put into play. ERA helps, but it isn't an end all, be all.

 

Just saying.