**2012 Election Day thread**

[StrangeSox]

Interesting that over the last week or so more have become "toss-ups," at least according to realclearpolitics.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ollege_map.html

 

Still Obama with the 1-3% lead in most of those. I'd be surprised if Romney won, but I don't think it would be unheard of. There's a lot of close states and if more people than expected show up he could easily win a few of those big states.

 

One state moved to "toss-up" since 10/11, when a handful did after the first debate. Obama's recovered in most of those states (e.g. Michigan is +4.0) but they've left them at "toss-up" for some reason.

[greg775]

Interesting that over the last week or so more have become "toss-ups," at least according to realclearpolitics.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ollege_map.html

 

Still Obama with the 1-3% lead in most of those. I'd be surprised if Romney won, but I don't think it would be unheard of. There's a lot of close states and if more people than expected show up he could easily win a few of those big states.

 

Edit: It's also pretty sad when you look at how much less people are voting (or expected to vote) for Obama than 4 years ago. A competent Republican candidate would have cleaned house in this election. Unfortunately, you have to sell your soul to the devil to get elected as the GOP candidate, even if you truly are more moderate.

 

Great post. I can't believe the Republicans could only come up with this Romney guy.

[Soxbadger]

Edit: It's also pretty sad when you look at how much less people are voting (or expected to vote) for Obama than 4 years ago. A competent Republican candidate would have cleaned house in this election. Unfortunately, you have to sell your soul to the devil to get elected as the GOP candidate, even if you truly are more moderate.

 

Maybe, its hard to tell. Basically youd need a Republican candidate who can deliver 1 big urban state. Given the current Republican platform they just are not going to get a lot of traction in major metropolitan areas.

 

Id personally rather burn money on the street than let the govt tell me how to live my life socially.

[Dick Allen]

I get that its their strategy to say that they are winning, but it comes off as Baghdad Bob. Win or lose tonight, I would think they would still want some credibility tomorrow.

There is a theory that people like to vote for winners. Tell everyone your data shows you winning big, if it is bought, it gets you more votes. Pretty much every loser in the presidential race was publicly optimistic on Election Day. If Romney loses in a landslide, no one will remember or care where his people had the numbers . If he loses, he won't be running for president again.

[Soxbadger]

Yeah but his campaign strategist will want another job and if Im hiring Id say that its a terrible idea to say you are going to win big.

 

I personally believe that people are more likely to vote when they think its close and believe that there vote is the difference between a loss and a win.

 

If I think my guy is going to win no matter what, why sit in line?

[Jake]

There are several reports coming from VA saying that turnout resembles 2008 if not greater, at least in terms of sheer numbers. I suppose we won't know for sure until the numbers come out though.

[Jake]

Yeah but his campaign strategist will want another job and if Im hiring Id say that its a terrible idea to say you are going to win big.

 

I personally believe that people are more likely to vote when they think its close and believe that there vote is the difference between a loss and a win.

 

If I think my guy is going to win no matter what, why sit in line?

 

If they are knowingly lying publicly, Mitt could just tell the next guy running for election that these guys were giving him good numbers secretly.

[bmags]

Edit: It's also pretty sad when you look at how much less people are voting (or expected to vote) for Obama than 4 years ago. A competent Republican candidate would have cleaned house in this election. Unfortunately, you have to sell your soul to the devil to get elected as the GOP candidate, even if you truly are more moderate.

 

I really don't think it was Romney's faults. Incumbents have big advantages, but also, 2008 is not a year often recreated.

[Soxbadger]

If they are knowingly lying publicly, Mitt could just tell the next guy running for election that these guys were giving him good numbers secretly.

 

That may be true, but I think their strategy is defective.

 

Id need to see some evidence that showed that somehow telling people its going to be a landslide increased voting in their favor. That to me just goes against all common sense.

 

For example, Obama is going to win IL. Many Obama voters are indifferent on voting because their vote doesnt matter. They dont go out and vote just to say they voted.

 

 

[StrangeSox]

That may be true, but I think their strategy is defective.

 

Id need to see some evidence that showed that somehow telling people its going to be a landslide increased voting in their favor. That to me just goes against all common sense.

 

For example, Obama is going to win IL. Many Obama voters are indifferent on voting because their vote doesnt matter. They dont go out and vote just to say they voted.

 

For Romney to win, the state polls need to be seriously off. They need to be systematically biased in Obama's favor, and if that's true in Ohio, it's true in NV, PA, WI etc. That would be Romney landslide territory.

 

I don't think optimistic projections for your candidate are really going to damage your reputation as a campaign strategist down the road. The "landslide" victory still requires winning a bunch of tight races in numerous states.

[RockRaines]

I know it sounds racist, but IMO the advanced polls and experts always forget that the really active contributors in projects arent always the people who turn out to vote. I.E. the poorer minority vote here in chicago that dont even have internet. They get bused to voting stations today.

[Dick Allen]

That may be true, but I think their strategy is defective.

 

Id need to see some evidence that showed that somehow telling people its going to be a landslide increased voting in their favor. That to me just goes against all common sense.

 

For example, Obama is going to win IL. Many Obama voters are indifferent on voting because their vote doesnt matter. They dont go out and vote just to say they voted.

And if he said things weren't looking so good, he woul have a hard time getting more votes. People like going with winners. Bandwagon fans isn't exclusive to sports.

[Soxbadger]

I wouldnt hire any strategist who came out and said "we are going to get over 300, its not going to be close."

 

Its not about the polls or anything, its about strategy. And if that is their "strategy" id never hire them, because I think that a better strategy is:

 

"We are going to win, its going to be close, we need everyone to get out there and share the victory with us. We may even be able to get over 300 electoral votes if all of our people show up in force like we think they will."

 

But thats just me.

[Jenksismyhero]

Maybe, its hard to tell. Basically youd need a Republican candidate who can deliver 1 big urban state. Given the current Republican platform they just are not going to get a lot of traction in major metropolitan areas.

 

Id personally rather burn money on the street than let the govt tell me how to live my life socially.

 

GOP always gets Texas. There's your urban state. They've been getting Florida, there's another. The fact is until the extreme right realizes it's better to lose the battles of gay marriage and abortion in order to win the war, they're going to get crushed. And it's going to be harder and harder as time goes by because Democrats are pandering like crazy to the Hispanic vote which is getting bigger and bigger.

[Dick Allen]

For Romney to win, the state polls need to be seriously off. They need to be systematically biased in Obama's favor, and if that's true in Ohio, it's true in NV, PA, WI etc. That would be Romney landslide territory.

 

I don't think optimistic projections for your candidate are really going to damage your reputation as a campaign strategist down the road. The "landslide" victory still requires winning a bunch of tight races in numerous states.

I would be surprised if Romney won, but I think he has a chance. McCain had no chance.

[bmags]

And if he said things weren't looking so good, he woul have a hard time getting more votes. People like going with winners. Bandwagon fans isn't exclusive to sports.

 

This. Karl Rove believes in this and has done it every year since 2000 (yes, in 2006, he said the republicans would keep all of their seats.)

[Soxbadger]

And if he said things weren't looking so good, he woul have a hard time getting more votes. People like going with winners. Bandwagon fans isn't exclusive to sports.

 

You dont have to say things arent looking good. I posted a better statement above that keeps it positive but also reinforces the fact that everyone still needs to vote, because my projection is based on them doing it.

[StrangeSox]

If by "pandering" you mean "not demonizing immigrants" then...

 

 

But the Republicans really do have a demographic problem. For Mitt to win, he has to have huge margins with white males. Republican policies, rightly or wrongly, have alienated most others from the party.

[Soxbadger]

GOP always gets Texas. There's your urban state. They've been getting Florida, there's another. The fact is until the extreme right realizes it's better to lose the battles of gay marriage and abortion in order to win the war, they're going to get crushed. And it's going to be harder and harder as time goes by because Democrats are pandering like crazy to the Hispanic vote which is getting bigger and bigger.

 

I should have been more clear. An urban state that was not part of the confederacy.

[bmags]

There are several reports coming from VA saying that turnout resembles 2008 if not greater, at least in terms of sheer numbers. I suppose we won't know for sure until the numbers come out though.

 

I'm wondering if, sheer numbers terms, their growing population in nova is making up for dead loss.

[Dick Allen]

You dont have to say things arent looking good. I posted a better statement above that keeps it positive but also reinforces the fact that everyone still needs to vote, because my projection is based on them doing it.

But saying it is close is also heard from the other side, and could, if your theory is correct, encourage the other side out to vote. Saying you are blowing them out even if you are not isn't bad strategy, and there is always a slight chance it's even correct.

[Jenksismyhero]

If by "pandering" you mean "not demonizing immigrants" then...

 

 

But the Republicans really do have a demographic problem. For Mitt to win, he has to have huge margins with white males. Republican policies, rightly or wrongly, have alienated most others from the party.

 

No, it's absolutely pandering. Romney's immigration plan isn't to kick every illegal out as soon as we find them. It's a pretty moderate position. But anything less than full amnesty is "demonizing" them apparently, because democrats have been great at making people associate any conservative with Sheriff Joe.

 

This is why the GOP sucks. They don't combat this crap from liberals because of a fear of looking like mean oppressors. There's a tactful way of responding to "we don't want full amnesty and it's not because we want children who are victims of their parents crimes to die on the streets." But, they don't, because they think its' easier to pander to more white people about how the gays and fetus killing mobs are going to ruin the world. Again, lose those battles and think of the long-term war.

[Jenksismyhero]

If by "pandering" you mean "not demonizing immigrants" then...

 

 

But the Republicans really do have a demographic problem. For Mitt to win, he has to have huge margins with white males. Republican policies, rightly or wrongly, have alienated most others from the party.

 

And wasn't he doing really well with women?

[Soxbadger]

But saying it is close is also heard from the other side, and could, if your theory is correct, encourage the other side out to vote. Saying you are blowing them out even if you are not isn't bad strategy, and there is always a slight chance it's even correct.

 

its the same with saying its a landslide, it could drive the other sides people to go out and vote as a hail mary.

 

Regardless, I dont think people are stupid enough to just blindly believe what people are saying on tv. Which is why it reminds me of Baghdad Bob, and why I think its a terrible strategy.

[Jake]

I haven't reviewed the research as far as what makes the campaigners believe saying they're going to win does, but I assume there's something promising.

 

So far in exit polling, it appears that the electorate has the same amount of youth vote as '08 as well as several other important indicators. 73% white is another promising one, same portion as '08. 10% latino so far this year compared to 9% last time around. Incomplete data though so far, of course.