Top Prospects List, Offseason

[southsider2k5]

I am also surprised Chris Beck isn't on there. If the stories about his body changing back to where it was are accurate, he could be a Brandon McCarthy type of quick mover through the system.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

I am also surprised Chris Beck isn't on there. If the stories about his body changing back to where it was are accurate, he could be a Brandon McCarthy type of quick mover through the system.

 

Chris Beck is listed at #8 *shrug*

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=19444

 

1. OF Courtney Hawkins

2. OF Trayce Thompson

3. IF Carlos Sanchez

4. RHP Erik Johnson

5. LHP Scott Snodgress

6. RHP Andre Rienzo

7. CF Keenyn Walker

8. RHP Christopher Beck

9. RHP Myles Jaye

10. 1B Keon Barnum

 

There's a paywall, but Jason Parks has the best format for analysis on these lists, by far, IMO. I would consider paying for it if I were you. I'll paste Hawkins' profile so you can get a taste of what you'd be getting:

 

1. Courtney Hawkins

Position: OF

DOB: 11/12/1993

Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 220 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Mary Carroll High School (Corpus Christi, TX)

2012 Stats: .284/.324/.480 at rookie level Bristol (38 games), Low-A Kannapolis

(16 games), High-A Winston-Salem (5 games)

The Tools: 7+ raw; 5+ hit; 6 arm

 

What Happened in 2012: Impressive professional debut for the back-flipping Texan, as Hawkins looked good early and finished the season at the High-A level.

 

Strengths: Massive raw strength/power; well above-average athlete for his size; shows very good hand-eye skills; produces bat speed; power is carrying tool; easy 7+ raw that could play at 6 or higher at developmental maturity; arm is plus; glove could be above-average.

 

Weaknesses: High maintenance body; potential to add bad weight and lose athleticism; aggressive approach; will chase out of the zone; swing has miss; doesn’t project up the middle.

 

Overall Future Potential: 6; first division player

 

Explanation of Risk: High risk; moved quickly in first season, but bat will need to get very close to ceiling to play in a corner.

 

Fantasy Future: Prototypical right field profile, with big power potential and good contact ability. Approach could limit utility, but has 25-plus home run potential.

 

The Year Ahead: Hawkins stormed through the lower minors in 2012, but the big Texan could use a full-season of A-ball before making the big professional jump to the Double-A level. Because of his impressive strength and excellent hand-eye coordination, Hawkins should be able to hit low-level pitching, but the real test will come when he face arms that can hit spots and spin quality off-speed pitches. It remains to be seen if Hawkins has the type of bat that will play with his approach, or if the raw power is merely a product of mature strength against inferior stuff. Sources appear mixed on his future, so a full season of professional at-bats should help clarify the developmental path Hawkins is on.

[QuickJones81]

Myles Jaye is a surprise in the top 10. Anyone else this high on him? I'm interested in what excites them about him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Myles Jaye is a surprise in the top 10. Anyone else this high on him? I'm interested in what excites them about him.

I questioned that in another thread. He's got a decent fastball and one good breaking pitch, along with an emerging change-up. But he has control issues as well. He's young. I think he's certainly worth keeping an eye on, but I don't get the 9th ranking at all.

 

[maggsmaggs]

25-home run potential for Hawkins? He had eight in 229 at-bats, which extrapolates to 21 HR over a full season. Mind you that was with a wood bat for the first time. Because it's potential and obviously no guarantee he would ever reach that, that seems awfully conservative.

[witesoxfan]

25-home run potential for Hawkins? He had eight in 229 at-bats, which extrapolates to 21 HR over a full season. Mind you that was with a wood bat for the first time. Because it's potential and obviously no guarantee he would ever reach that, that seems awfully conservative.

 

When I read 25-homer potential, I generally consider it to mean an average of 25, meaning he is probably a 30-35 homer hitter during his prime years.

[Eminor3rd]

25-home run potential for Hawkins? He had eight in 229 at-bats, which extrapolates to 21 HR over a full season. Mind you that was with a wood bat for the first time. Because it's potential and obviously no guarantee he would ever reach that, that seems awfully conservative.

 

I don't think anyone questions his raw power, but game power is a massively different thing from A to the majors. His biggest flaw is his plate discipline, and his weakest tool is his hit tool, and those together can limit his game power. Think Delmon Young.

[YASNY]

When I read 25-homer potential, I generally consider it to mean an average of 25, meaning he is probably a 30-35 homer hitter during his prime years.

 

I read it as top possible production.

[maggsmaggs]

I don't think anyone questions his raw power, but game power is a massively different thing from A to the majors. His biggest flaw is his plate discipline, and his weakest tool is his hit tool, and those together can limit his game power. Think Delmon Young.

Right, but Delmon Young as a prospect had 35+ HR power, if not 40+. He didn't reach it because of his mechanical flaws, but potential is based on what happens if all goes right for player A. Not what is likely or what will happen if his mechanical flaws persist.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

Right, but Delmon Young as a prospect had 35+ HR power, if not 40+. He didn't reach it because of his mechanical flaws, but potential is based on what happens if all goes right for player A. Not what is likely or what will happen if his mechanical flaws persist.

 

Well, I'm not saying that he'll have the same developmental path, I'm just using Young as an example of a guy who has way more raw power than game power. Parks says 7+ raw, and 7 power is much higher than 25 homer potential, so I think he's saying that he won't be able to utilize that raw power to its fullest extent against ML pitching.

 

But I could be wrong.

[Eminor3rd]

Myles Jaye is a surprise in the top 10. Anyone else this high on him? I'm interested in what excites them about him.

 

 

I questioned that in another thread. He's got a decent fastball and one good breaking pitch, along with an emerging change-up. But he has control issues as well. He's young. I think he's certainly worth keeping an eye on, but I don't get the 9th ranking at all.

 

Here's this from the article, hope I'm not making people at BP angry

 

9. Myles Jaye

Position: RHP

DOB: 12/28/1991

Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 170 lbs.

Bats/Throws: B/R

Drafted/Acquired: 17th round, 2010 draft (Jays), Starr’s Mill High School (Fayetteville, GA)

2012 Stats: 6.04 ERA (79 IP, 102 H, 65 K, 39 BB) at Low-A Kannapolis

The Tools: 6 FB; 5+ potential SL; 5 potential CH

 

What Happened in 2012: The projectable Jaye is new to the mound, so his setbacks in his full-season debut are to be expected.

 

Strengths: Good arm strength; very fresh arm; fastball works 89-94; slider has projection; works low-80s with two-plane break; will flash a changeup.

 

Weaknesses: Very inexperienced on the mound; mechanics are still a work in progress; command is below average; slider can get slurvy and lose its snap; long way to go.

 

Overall Future Potential: 5; no. 4 starter

 

Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; new to pitching; wide gap between present/future.

 

Fantasy Future: Has a projectable body and the potential for the three playable pitches; could log innings and develop into league-average type; lots of unknowns still.

 

The Year Ahead: Jaye took his lumps in his initial full-season experience, but at this stage of the developmental game, logging innings and finding his pitching rhythm is more important than the production. You have to like what he has to work with, from the body/frame, to the low-90s fastball, to the average or better potential of the secondary arsenal. Jaye isn’t going to be an overnight sensation, but a little extra patience could pay off if the 21-year-old can develop into a major-league caliber arm.

 

Major league ETA: 2016

[NorthSideSox72]

Here's this from the article, hope I'm not making people at BP angry

Seems like his high ranking is mostly about a projectable frame and potential for breaking pitches, only one of which he throws now (and not that well). I fail to see how a guy like that is #9 in the system. But hey, its all opinions.

 

[witesoxfan]

There are definitely many, many others I'd take above Jaye right now. I see a scouting report like that and, even in the Sox system, I can't help but think he should be rated in the 15-20 range at best.

[balfanman]

There are definitely many, many others I'd take above Jaye right now. I see a scouting report like that and, even in the Sox system, I can't help but think he should be rated in the 15-20 range at best.

 

Maybe he has family that works at BP.

[Ross]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3...system-rankings

 

Ranked 28th.

[NorthSideSox72]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3...system-rankings

 

Ranked 28th.

Well, that's better than 30th like we have been in recent years.

 

[witesoxfan]

Not surprising, because there's not a lot of depth. I think they'll continue to rise over the next few years too.

[maggsmaggs]

There is no doubt that our drafting in the last three years has gotten much better the last three years. But we have been hurt by our inability to sign non-Cuban foreign free agents. Whereas most teams have those types of player littered throughout their system, we don't really have any top prospects of such. But we are most definitely pointed in the right direction drafting wise. The jury is still out on the foreign free agents as we won't know probably for 2-3 years whether or not we are doing good in that regard.

 

That DR scandal really really really hurt us in incredible ways. Such a shame.

[witesoxfan]

There is no doubt that our drafting in the last three years has gotten much better the last three years. But we have been hurt by our inability to sign non-Cuban foreign free agents. Whereas most teams have those types of player littered throughout their system, we don't really have any top prospects of such. But we are most definitely pointed in the right direction drafting wise. The jury is still out on the foreign free agents as we won't know probably for 2-3 years whether or not we are doing good in that regard.

 

That DR scandal really really really hurt us in incredible ways. Such a shame.

 

Well, that and the cost of signing IFA's before last year was astronomical. Sano signed for like $3 million, didn't he? You can't make a signing like that and be wrong.

[maggsmaggs]

Well, that and the cost of signing IFA's before last year was astronomical. Sano signed for like $3 million, didn't he? You can't make a signing like that and be wrong.

Well prior to the new CBA, that was risk you took. If the Twins could afford that risk money-wise, the Sox should have, too.

[witesoxfan]

Well prior to the new CBA, that was risk you took. If the Twins could afford that risk money-wise, the Sox should have, too.

 

I think that was primarily management of the team. Given the choice, Williams re-invested that money in the MLB team rather than the minors. I think that changes in a big way under Hahn.

[southsider2k5]

I think that was primarily management of the team. Given the choice, Williams re-invested that money in the MLB team rather than the minors. I think that changes in a big way under Hahn.

 

And I think those changes already started before Hahn ever "took over".

[Y2HH]

Not that I think much of the White Sox farm system, but let's try to keep in mind that these "farm rankings" are a huge steaming pile of bulls***...

 

Granted, this is the Cubs, but these same people ranked their farm in the top 10 five years in a row (even hitting #1, #2 and #3 in consecutive years).

 

2001: Cubs #2

2002: Cubs #1

2003: Cubs #3

2004: Cubs #7

2005: Cubs #10

 

...that really seemed to make a difference.

 

From http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...ntrankings.html

[witesoxfan]

Not that I think much of the White Sox farm system, but let's try to keep in mind that these "farm rankings" are a huge steaming pile of bulls***...

 

Granted, this is the Cubs, but these same people ranked their farm in the top 10 five years in a row (even hitting #1, #2 and #3 in consecutive years).

 

2001: Cubs #2

2002: Cubs #1

2003: Cubs #3

2004: Cubs #7

2005: Cubs #10

 

...that really seemed to make a difference.

 

From http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...ntrankings.html

 

Well the Sox were #1 after 2000. It produced a buttload of decent to good relievers, a few journeyman starting pitchers, a CFer who had his moments, a 3Bman who had an incredible calendar year, and some dude named MB.