Top Prospects List, Offseason

[hammerhead johnson]

Speaking of company man... How does Ricketts pay to have you parrot their company line?

 

Is that really the company line? Because I thought it was just common sense. If you're in rebuilding mode, then the short term is meaningless.

 

You can see that the Cubs are going to have enormous payroll flexibility and a top 5 minor league system in the business come 2015, correct? God, it sucks to be them!

[maggsmaggs]

Is that really the company line? Because I thought it was just common sense. If you're in rebuilding mode, then the short term is meaningless.

 

You can see that the Cubs are going to have enormous payroll flexibility and a top 5 minor league system in the business come 2015, correct? God, it sucks to be them!

Nevermind those 100+ years of futility...

 

They have one cornerstone player right in Castro, and it reamins to be seen what his future holds. That's it. So even if their farm system is good, there is no guarantee of anything. The Sox had the #1 farm system in baseball in 2000 and an insanely young and talented roster. Those teams did squat.

Edited March 10, 2013 by maggsmaggs

[Chicago White Sox]

Nevermind those 100+ years of futility...

 

They have one cornerstone player right in Castro, and it reamins to be seen what his future holds. That's it. So even if their farm system is good, there is no guarantee of anything. The Sox had the #1 farm system in baseball in 2000 and an insanely young and talented roster. Those teams did squat.

See this is what I find so funny about his post. He's acting like having 4 top 100 prospects is going to lead to guaranteed success for the Cubs. This is a team that lost 100 games last year. They don't have much of a core at the major league level. And most of their 4 top 100 prospects are at least 2 or 3 years away from hitting the big leagues if all goes right.

 

I'm friends with a couple of smart Cubs fans and they're starting to realize this rebuilding thing is going to take a lot longer than they originally expected, especially with all the CBA changes. Theo is going to have a real hard tume accelerating the rebuilding process without all the loopholes he took advanagage of before. This isn't the NBA, one top draft pick isn't enough to change a franchise's fortunes. They're going to have to string together several big drafts and then wait a few years while those guys develop. Who knows when or if that will ever happen for them.

[Balta1701]

See this is what I find so funny about his post. He's acting like having 4 top 100 prospects is going to lead to guaranteed success for the Cubs. This is a team that lost 100 games last year. They don't have much of a core at the major league level. And most of their 4 top 100 prospects are at least 2 or 3 years away from hitting the big leagues if all goes right.

 

I'm friends with a couple of smart Cubs fans and they're starting to realize this rebuilding thing is going to take a lot longer than they originally expected, especially with all the CBA changes. Theo is going to have a real hard tume accelerating the rebuilding process without all the loopholes he took advanagage of before. This isn't the NBA, one top draft pick isn't enough to change a franchise's fortunes. They're going to have to string together several big drafts and then wait a few years while those guys develop. Who knows when or if that will ever happen for them.

The one thing he's right about is that by 2015 they won't have a lot of bad money on their roster from the current players...

 

But that's because they'll have 2 players under contract out of the current group. Castro and Jackson. Basically, yes they'll have some money to spend, but they're literally starting from scratch, and it will be a couple years before they can do so.

[hammerhead johnson]

Nevermind those 100+ years of futility...

 

I'm sorry, but how is this in any way relevant to their current rebuilding efforts?

 

And how are guys like Rizzo and Samardzija not noteworthy assets?

[Chicago White Sox]

The one thing he's right about is that by 2015 they won't have a lot of bad money on their roster from the current players...

 

But that's because they'll have 2 players under contract out of the current group. Castro and Jackson. Basically, yes they'll have some money to spend, but they're literally starting from scratch, and it will be a couple years before they can do so.

Um, so will we and we're not rebuilding. As of now, we'll have four guys under guaranteed contracts prior to the 2015 season: Sale, Danks, Ramirez, & Keppinger. I guess I don't see what the point is.

 

Also, with the new CBA rules, the Cubs might get a slight advantage by rebuilding (higher picks, larger bonus pools), but it probably won't be a signicant enough of an edge to build a vastly superior farm system unless they actually hit on more of their picks. The physical act of going out and losing 100 games several years doesn't allow them to scout better.

 

Again, given the new CBA rules, I think there is little incentive to do a full rebuild. At some point, I expect the Cubs to lose patience and just start overpaying guys in free agency.

[hammerhead johnson]

He's acting like having 4 top 100 prospects is going to lead to guaranteed success for the Cubs.

 

Uh, I'm saying that having a top minor league system and a boatload of cash could lead to success.

 

This is a team that lost 100 games last year.

 

Again - who cares? You're zoning in on a grain of sand and missing the beach, kid.

Edited March 10, 2013 by hammerhead johnson

[Balta1701]

Uh, I'm saying that having a top minor league system and a boatload of cash could lead to success.

And it could also lead to a lost decade, particularly if their ticket sales erode while they're piling up those draft picks.

[hammerhead johnson]

And it could also lead to a lost decade, particularly if their ticket sales erode while they're piling up those draft picks.

 

Their ticket sales are not gonna erode. Come on.

 

But yeah, it's possible that the vast majority of these highly-talented prospects could turn out to be crap. That shouldn't be a revelation to anyone.

[Balta1701]

Their ticket sales are not gonna erode. Come on.

They lost 135,000 in attendance last year and that's with season tickets still locked up from when they had a decent team.

 

This year the ticket brokers aren't going to take the kind of losses they did last year.

[Chicago White Sox]

Their ticket sales are not gonna erode. Come on.

 

But yeah, it's possible that the vast majority of these highly-talented prospects could turn out to be crap. That shouldn't be a revelation to anyone.

So they're a "real organization" because they're willing to gamble 5 or more seasons on a rebuilding process that has a good chance of not workinng out? I still don't get what your original point was other than to troll.

[Quin]

So I should be envious of the Cubs who are going to have to wait around 3 or 4 years for their current crop of prospects to POSSIBLY reach the majors. Then they have to let them adjust to the MLB for another year or two. Then they have to try and sign free agents who will look at all the recent terrible seasons and not sign. So they're going to have to hope all their prospects hit their prime at the same time.

 

I'd rather be where the Sox are than hoping my current batch of prospects all hit their prime 10 years from now.

 

Bad team + great farm is worse than in playoff hunt + bad farm.

 

See: Royals

[Balta1701]

So I should be envious of the Cubs who are going to have to wait around 3 or 4 years for their current crop of prospects to POSSIBLY reach the majors. Then they have to let them adjust to the MLB for another year or two. Then they have to try and sign free agents who will look at all the recent terrible seasons and not sign. So they're going to have to hope all their prospects hit their prime at the same time.

 

I'd rather be where the Sox are than hoping my current batch of prospects all hit their prime 10 years from now.

 

Bad team + great farm is worse than in playoff hunt + bad farm.

 

See: Royals

MLB Free Agents won't generally care about whether or not the Cubs are winning if they're offering the most money.

 

The problem of course is that signing Free Agents as a method of building your team has become ungodly expensive. So many teams are trying to find that last guy to put them over the edge into the playoffs, or are locking their guys up early, that you pay things like 5/$25 for Hamlton when even fangraphs thinks that's an overpay. Or you lock yourself into an 8 year deal for someone like Prince. Etc.

 

Basically, so many teams are competing for "The guy to put you over the edge" that it makes very little sense to sign high-salary guys for any other purpose.

[southsider2k5]

Is that really the company line? Because I thought it was just common sense. If you're in rebuilding mode, then the short term is meaningless.

 

You can see that the Cubs are going to have enormous payroll flexibility and a top 5 minor league system in the business come 2015, correct? God, it sucks to be them!

 

They have been rebuilding since 1908. Flexibility and minor league systems don't mean anything if they don't translate to wins. Last I saw the World Series trophy wasn't handed out for how many bad contracts you had expiring.

[southsider2k5]

So they're a "real organization" because they're willing to gamble 5 or more seasons on a rebuilding process that has a good chance of not workinng out? I still don't get what your original point was other than to troll.

 

Plus it ignores the reality that the Cubs don't have a bandwagon fanbase that won't desert the team if they lose 100 games.

[southsider2k5]

So I should be envious of the Cubs who are going to have to wait around 3 or 4 years for their current crop of prospects to POSSIBLY reach the majors. Then they have to let them adjust to the MLB for another year or two. Then they have to try and sign free agents who will look at all the recent terrible seasons and not sign. So they're going to have to hope all their prospects hit their prime at the same time.

 

I'd rather be where the Sox are than hoping my current batch of prospects all hit their prime 10 years from now.

 

Bad team + great farm is worse than in playoff hunt + bad farm.

 

See: Royals

 

This isn't OOTP. The object isn't to rebuild, it is to win. If you have to rebuild, you did something wrong.

[The Ultimate Champion]

This isn't OOTP. The object isn't to rebuild, it is to win. If you have to rebuild, you did something wrong.

You could also be so high on yourself that you feel putting your own stamp on an organization is worth the loss of 2-4 years of any kind of worthwhile product. I think that is what Theo & the buttholes are doing over there.

 

There's no reason why a team that is capable of supporting a $130M+ payroll while playing .500 baseball should tear down everything and run out role players & AAAA guys in starting roles. They probably could "build" just as quickly with a marginal team as with a s***ty one - IF they can rely on scouting to draft the right guys and not just count on draft positioning - but I guess you'd have to be a real genius to do that, not a paper one.

 

I saw that lefty they got from the Reds, Travis Wood I think, and I'm wondering wtf they made that trade for? He's not your future unless you're expecting something especially bleak, so why not try to sign some free agent or something to take that spot and just hold onto your player until the deadline when the relief demand is higher? What's the point there? Why $7M for Concepcion, who from his scouting report seemed like the type who gets 5th round money in the Rule-4 draft? Put that money into the team instead of throwing it away, I mean if that $2M beach house isn't for sale, that doesn't mean you should go spend $1.5M on a townhouse next to a swamp. I think the buttholes over there are just trying to tear s*** down so they can say they built it all themselves. I think it's a legacy thing, and it's why they dumped Tyler Colvin and took on someone else's bust, and why they having been itching to eat almost every penny on Soriano's deal, and why they want Garza gone so bad, etc.

[southsider2k5]

You could also be so high on yourself that you feel putting your own stamp on an organization is worth the loss of 2-4 years of any kind of worthwhile product. I think that is what Theo & the buttholes are doing over there.

 

There's no reason why a team that is capable of supporting a $130M+ payroll while playing .500 baseball should tear down everything and run out role players & AAAA guys in starting roles. They probably could "build" just as quickly with a marginal team as with a s***ty one - IF they can rely on scouting to draft the right guys and not just count on draft positioning - but I guess you'd have to be a real genius to do that, not a paper one.

 

I saw that lefty they got from the Reds, Travis Wood I think, and I'm wondering wtf they made that trade for? He's not your future unless you're expecting something especially bleak, so why not try to sign some free agent or something to take that spot and just hold onto your player until the deadline when the relief demand is higher? What's the point there? Why $7M for Concepcion, who from his scouting report seemed like the type who gets 5th round money in the Rule-4 draft? Put that money into the team instead of throwing it away, I mean if that $2M beach house isn't for sale, that doesn't mean you should go spend $1.5M on a townhouse next to a swamp. I think the buttholes over there are just trying to tear s*** down so they can say they built it all themselves. I think it's a legacy thing, and it's why they dumped Tyler Colvin and took on someone else's bust, and why they having been itching to eat almost every penny on Soriano's deal, and why they want Garza gone so bad, etc.

 

I could buy Ego in Theo's case.

[Balta1701]

I saw that lefty they got from the Reds, Travis Wood I think, and I'm wondering wtf they made that trade for? He's not your future unless you're expecting something especially bleak, so why not try to sign some free agent or something to take that spot and just hold onto your player until the deadline when the relief demand is higher? What's the point there? Why $7M for Concepcion, who from his scouting report seemed like the type who gets 5th round money in the Rule-4 draft? Put that money into the team instead of throwing it away, I mean if that $2M beach house isn't for sale, that doesn't mean you should go spend $1.5M on a townhouse next to a swamp. I think the buttholes over there are just trying to tear s*** down so they can say they built it all themselves. I think it's a legacy thing, and it's why they dumped Tyler Colvin and took on someone else's bust, and why they having been itching to eat almost every penny on Soriano's deal, and why they want Garza gone so bad, etc.

Why spend $40 million on Edwin Jackson when the team isn't going to be in a position to compete for the first 2 years of the deal?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Is that really the company line? Because I thought it was just common sense. If you're in rebuilding mode, then the short term is meaningless.

 

You can see that the Cubs are going to have enormous payroll flexibility and a top 5 minor league system in the business come 2015, correct? God, it sucks to be them!

 

Because we all saw the White Sox destroy baseball shortly following their years loaded with minor league arms as the number one farm system in baseball. Oh wait...

[Y2Jimmy0]

Why are you guys arguing Cubs vs White Sox? Who the f*** cares? Now I will argue White Sox vs Royals, Twins, Indians, or Tigers any day. Cubs vs White Sox is stupid and does not matter. You guys have all made valid points though. Even though the Sox farm system has supplemented the ML roster with relievers, 1st round picks moving quickly through the system, and backup infielder types, it is still a terrible system that is getting much better. The Sox have some young pitching with #3 starter type upside. They also have numerous OF's that will be on the radar in the next few years. Courtney Hawkins is the best position player the Sox have had in their system in a long time. He was on numerous Top 100 lists and will most likely start the year at High A Winston-Salem as an 18 year old. OTOH, what the Cubs are doing is smart. They have 3-4 prospects that look like they can be studs. They also have absolutely no young starting pitchers in the minors as of yet. I am sure Garza, Marmol, etc will be turned into young pitching. I do believe with Theo and Jed Hoyer running things the correct way, that Cubs fans should be very excited. Hell, I will be out to Kane County to checkout Almora and Vogelbach myself. Barring a huge change in thinking, the Cubs should get to a spot within the next 2-3 years where they should be favored to win that division on a consistent basis. But still that doesn't affect what Rick Hahn will do on the southside.

 

hammerhead, how does looking at 1 source's top 100 list tell you that Hawkins is not any good? Did you checkout the other Top 100 lists in which he was included? I enjoy this site very much but sometimes it just gets downright comical.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Why spend $40 million on Edwin Jackson when the team isn't going to be in a position to compete for the first 2 years of the deal?

Because he fills a hole in the rotation & you're not broke. He doesn't cost you a prospect either.

[Eminor3rd]

Marc Hulet's top 100 list came out today on Fangraphs, and includes a HUGE surprise. Courtney Hawkins is at #63, but check out #64:

 

64. Carlos Sanchez, 2B, Chicago (AL): Probably the second most shocking ranking on list, I’m going against the field here with Sanchez — whom I doubt made any other Top 100 lists. The second baseman impresses me with his baseball skills, as well as the way he carries himself on the field. I think he gets a bit of a raw deal because he’s in the White Sox underrated system and because he doesn’t have loud tools. I truly think he’ll exceed expectations when given the opportunity.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/f...00-prospects-2/

[Chicago White Sox]

Barring a huge change in thinking, the Cubs should get to a spot within the next 2-3 years where they should be favored to win that division on a consistent basis.

This has to be the most comical statement I've seen on this site yet.

 

So having 4 top 100 prospects, several which are 2-3 years away, will guarantee them favorite status in the NL Central in 2-3 years. This despite you already acknowledging they have almost no pitching in their system. How does that make any sense to you?

 

Also, can we please stop pretending systems automatically lead to major league success. It's getting really tiring to bring this up, but look at the Royals for god's sake. They've had monster systems in the past few years and yet they haven't been able to win at all. I get the Cubs have a big financial edge over them, but money isn't going to be enough to build a consistent winner. At some point they'll need their prospects to turn into major league contributors and I'm still skeptical of these four guys who are ranked so highly because of their tools and not their production.

[Y2Jimmy0]

This has to be the most comical statement I've seen on this site yet.

 

So having 4 top 100 prospects, several which are 2-3 years away, will guarantee them favorite status in the NL Central in 2-3 years. This despite you already acknowledging they have almost no pitching in their system. How does that make any sense to you?

 

Also, can we please stop pretending systems automatically lead to major league success. It's getting really tiring to bring this up, but look at the Royals for god's sake. They've had monster systems in the past few years and yet they haven't been able to win at all. I get the Cubs have a big financial edge over them, but money isn't going to be enough to build a consistent winner. At some point they'll need their prospects to turn into major league contributors and I'm still skeptical of these four guys who are ranked so highly because of their tools and not their production.

 

 

With the system that they are building and the ability to have a payroll north of $150 million annually, yes they better get to a position in which they are the favorites to win that division every season. Do you think they are going to stop adding players? They will also have high pick at the top of each round next year again. Most people on this board hate the Cubs because they are on the other side of town, or blue, or their parents told them they should a long time ago. That doesn't matter. I am trying to look at this objectively. I think Theo and Jed are smart guys. I am not going to dismiss them just because they are running the Cubs and for some reason that makes them destined to fail. Doesn't make any sense. I think in 2015 they are contending.