AJ Talk

[Texsox]

The problem you're over-looking is that retaining AJ will also be a downgrade at the position. The guy just had a career year as a 35 year old catcher and will not come close to those numbers next year. No matter who we go with, we'll be getting less production at catcher than we did this past season.

 

I wasn't overlooking AJ's age. I agree he will most likely drop off (how many said that a year ago and were very wrong). We probably disagree how far he will drop off. I'm not certain what you mean by "not come close". Are you thinking his .278 avg to .225? Slugging from .501 to .300? A 15% drop? 50% drop? Adam Dunn 2011 drop?

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I'll say this again like I did a month ago... baseball is aware of AJ's prickly demeanor, and that has an effect. They are also all very aware that his 2012 is 99.9% likely to be an aberration. So you're looking at a 36 year old catcher with a ton of innings who is likely to regress offensively, has already been on the decline defensively for a while, and has potential character issues. Not surprising that teams aren't jumping to get him.

 

Yankees are intriguiing though - seems like a potential fit for a number of reasons. But they are no longer the Yankees of unlimited budget.

 

I'll be surprised if he gets more than 2 years, or more than $8M per. Probably more like $6-7M per for 2. And at that range, the Sox might think about taking him.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I wasn't overlooking AJ's age. I agree he will most likely drop off (how many said that a year ago and were very wrong). We probably disagree how far he will drop off. I'm not certain what you mean by "not come close". Are you thinking his .278 avg to .225? Slugging from .501 to .300? A 15% drop? 50% drop? Adam Dunn 2011 drop?

I'm talking about his slugging % dropping from .501 to about .405. Even at his career OBP of .324, we're talking about an OPS of roughly .730 next year, which is about where he was at in 2011. Solid for a catcher, but nothing spectacular.

 

Flowers had OPSs of .719 and .708 the last two years with us in minimal playing time. Those numbers should improve with consistent playing time. Honestly, I think he'll have a higher OPS than AJ next year, even if AJ hits 50 points higher than him, because he draws a lot more walks and should hit more home runs. I do think that batting average is often underrated, so AJ deserves some credit for that, but overall offensively I think they'll be pretty close.

 

Also, not that this is the gospel or anything, but Bill James is projecting a .791 OPS for Flowers next year vs a .732 OPS for AJ. Thought it was worth pointing out though.

[Cali]

What I want for a catcher is someone who calls a good game, that pitchers like and who can defend

 

Flowers does all of that. He's gonna be a downgrade offensively, yes (AJ will never repeat his 2012 season)

 

As for AJ being the "heart and soul" of the team and him bringing something to the clubhouse that may be true, but what has that gotten the Sox since '05? Maybe it's time for a heart transplant.

[Dick Allen]

I'm talking about his slugging % dropping from .501 to about .405. Even at his career OBP of .324, we're talking about an OPS of roughly .730 next year, which is about where he was at in 2011. Solid for a catcher, but nothing spectacular.

 

Flowers had OPSs of .719 and .708 the last two years with us in minimal playing time. Those numbers should improve with consistent playing time. Honestly, I think he'll have a higher OPS than AJ next year, even if AJ hits 50 points higher than him, because he draws a lot more walks and should hit more home runs. I do think that batting average is often underrated, so AJ deserves some credit for that, but overall offensively I think they'll be pretty close.

 

Also, not that this is the gospel or anything, but Bill James is projecting a .791 OPS for Flowers next year vs a .732 OPS for AJ. Thought it was worth pointing out though.

If the White Sox are confident Flowers would put up a .791 OPS they would not even consider bringing AJ back. Maybe they are. It has been very quiet on the AJ front.

 

I do think Flowers defensive reputation here will take a little hit if he plays everyday. When he is a little more banged up, and a little more drained from playing, blocking balls in the dirt is going to be a bit more difficult.

[Chicago White Sox]

If the White Sox are confident Flowers would put up a .791 OPS they would not even consider bringing AJ back. Maybe they are. It has been very quiet on the AJ front.

 

I do think Flowers defensive reputation here will take a little hit if he plays everyday. When he is a little more banged up, and a little more drained from playing, blocking balls in the dirt is going to be a bit more difficult.

First let me say that I find that Bill James projection to be very aggressive. I seriously doubt that Hahn expects a .790 OPS out of him next year either, but I really do think that Hahn wants Flowers as his starting catcher. This is an easy spot for Hahn to upgrade the lineup's OBP while saving money for other needs.

 

Your points about Flowers' defense are fair enough. We'll have to see how he handles a full season workload. I think it would be foolish to expect to him to play as many games as AJ typically has, so getting a catcher that can hit right-handed pitching well seems critical to me if Flowers end up as our starter.

[GreatScott82]

A part of me wants to give Flowers a full season to prove his worth. Another part of me is really scared of all those strike outs coming from his at bats. We already have that issue with Dunn. If AJ's price-tag comes down, lock him up! If not, I guess we should take our chances with Flowers....

[macsandz]

If the White Sox are confident Flowers would put up a .791 OPS they would not even consider bringing AJ back. Maybe they are. It has been very quiet on the AJ front.

 

I do think Flowers defensive reputation here will take a little hit if he plays everyday. When he is a little more banged up, and a little more drained from playing, blocking balls in the dirt is going to be a bit more difficult.

 

In spite of what they've said publicly, and unless things have drastically changed in the past week, I've heard the Sox are not planning on AJ returning,...even if he wants to. That time has passed. They will spend their limited coin elsewhere. Like the bullpen.

[macsandz]

First let me say that I find that Bill James projection to be very aggressive. I seriously doubt that Hahn expects a .790 OPS out of him next year either, but I really do think that Hahn wants Flowers as his starting catcher. This is an easy spot for Hahn to upgrade the lineup's OBP while saving money for other needs.

 

Your points about Flowers' defense are fair enough. We'll have to see how he handles a full season workload. I think it would be foolish to expect to him to play as many games as AJ typically has, so getting a catcher that can hit right-handed pitching well seems critical to me if Flowers end up as our starter.

 

+1. Great post.

[southsider2k5]

In spite of what they've said publicly, and unless things have drastically changed in the past week, I've heard the Sox are not planning on AJ returning,...even if he wants to. That time has passed. They will spend their limited coin elsewhere. Like the bullpen.

 

With limited dollars, and the roster constructed as it is, this makes perfect sense.

[elrockinMT]

I really don't want Olivo. That ship has sailed. Letting AJ go is a huge mistake. Sure hope Flowers is ready to catch all but 20 games.

 

 

I would much rather have AJP back also. But, two years ago they were almost ready to pull that trigger for Olivo. If I had my choice between AJ and Youk for one FA I would take AJP

[The Ginger Kid]

AJP is going to be a 36 y/o catcher next season and teams aren't lining up to sign him? Shocking.

[spiderman]

AJP is going to be a 36 y/o catcher next season and teams aren't lining up to sign him? Shocking.

 

It's still early. He may have had a career season in 2012, but he's still going to have better numbers than most catchers even if he comes back down to a .270, 15 HR and 60 RBI type of season next year. He's also a left handed hitter. I really think some team will give him a 1 year (maybe 2 year deal) for at least what Russell Martin got - maybe he's not a full time catcher anymore, maybe he can get some time at 1B/DH for a team.

 

As for the White Sox, I think it does make sense to pass on AJ. I do think they'd be spending money on past production, not future, and just don't have the money to spend on what likely will be a reduction in his production. If they sign him back, it would have to be a modest increase over last season, and he'd have to agree to 4 days (at most) a week in the lineup since he has a history of wearing down in the 2nd half. With the lack of financial flexibility and the desire to see what Flowers would do with more time, I just don't see a path here for AJ.

[The Ginger Kid]

It's still early. He may have had a career season in 2012, but he's still going to have better numbers than most catchers even if he comes back down to a .270, 15 HR and 60 RBI type of season next year. He's also a left handed hitter. I really think some team will give him a 1 year (maybe 2 year deal) for at least what Russell Martin got - maybe he's not a full time catcher anymore, maybe he can get some time at 1B/DH for a team.

 

As for the White Sox, I think it does make sense to pass on AJ. I do think they'd be spending money on past production, not future, and just don't have the money to spend on what likely will be a reduction in his production. If they sign him back, it would have to be a modest increase over last season, and he'd have to agree to 4 days (at most) a week in the lineup since he has a history of wearing down in the 2nd half. With the lack of financial flexibility and the desire to see what Flowers would do with more time, I just don't see a path here for AJ.

I love AJ but the law of the wall just isn't in his favor -- at his age, he's due to start dropping off sharply.

[ShandyMan]

if AJ is the difference between sanchez at third or someone else, i say flowers.

[spiderman]

if AJ is the difference between sanchez at third or someone else, i say flowers.

 

What I am discouraged about is the White Sox seem more likely to find patches for 3B and maybe a backup type catcher to complement Flowers than actually upgrade the offense. I don't know the answer as to how to fix the offense, but it's got 4 or 5 guys in the lineup on most days who can't get on base. If the only off-season moves are to find some aging veteran on the cheap to fill out the lineup, I don't see how that makes the team better for next season.

 

Saying that, it's a long off-season and we rarely know what the White Sox will do until they do so here's hoping that they address the OBP issues.

[Ross]

Is Josh Phegley the backup catcher then?

[spiderman]

Is Josh Phegley the backup catcher then?

 

If they don't bring back AJ, my guess is that they will bring in a veteran catcher who can complement Flowers.

[NorthSideSox72]

Is Josh Phegley the backup catcher then?

 

 

If they don't bring back AJ, my guess is that they will bring in a veteran catcher who can complement Flowers.

 

Yeah, Phegley is probably well down the list of options. He did play AAA all of last year, and he is currently at the top of the minor league depth chart for Sox catchers. But... he only did "OK" in Charlotte last year (.266/.306/.373, good contact rate though amd hit .361 in final 10 games)... his defense was never considered a strong suit... he's actually only gotten in 2.5 full season's worth of AB's due to his injury history (but was healthy in 2012)... and he was a much better hitter last year against lefties (.830 OPS) than righties (.611 OPS). So he just doesn't fit well as a backup for Flowers.

 

[ShandyMan]

backup for flowers would probably have to be someone like olivo

[swzissman]

Sign AJ (3 years, 24 million), trade Flowers to Mets for a top prospect 3B that is MLB ready and that wold be inexpensive. With David Wright blocking the position for the next 8 years they should have some expendable pieces at 3b in the minors and they seem to be interested in Flowers whose power is great but I worry about the Sox adding another peice to the everyday lineup that strikes out all of the time in place of a fairly consistent contact hitter with some pop in AJP.

 

[Quin]

Sign AJ (3 years, 24 million), trade Flowers to Mets for a top prospect 3B that is MLB ready and that wold be inexpensive. With David Wright blocking the position for the next 8 years they should have some expendable pieces at 3b in the minors and they seem to be interested in Flowers whose power is great but I worry about the Sox adding another peice to the everyday lineup that strikes out all of the time in place of a fairly consistent contact hitter with some pop in AJP.

 

What top prospect are you getting for Flowers?

[NorthSideSox72]

Sign AJ (3 years, 24 million), trade Flowers to Mets for a top prospect 3B that is MLB ready and that wold be inexpensive. With David Wright blocking the position for the next 8 years they should have some expendable pieces at 3b in the minors and they seem to be interested in Flowers whose power is great but I worry about the Sox adding another peice to the everyday lineup that strikes out all of the time in place of a fairly consistent contact hitter with some pop in AJP.

Flowers will not get you a "top prospect 3B'.

 

And I don't think AJ is worth 3/24, nor do I think that any team will give him 3 years. The Sox may indeed sign AJ, as it seems few teams are on him right now, but only if the market really dries up and they can get him cheap on a 1+1 type deal in terms of years.

 

if they can't get him for that cheap, I'd rather not get him at all. I hate to say that because I love AJ, but, he's likely to go back to career norms or lower with the bat in 2013, and his defense is declining.

 

[Harry Chappas]

What top prospect are you getting for Flowers?

 

If the Sox sign AJ, trade Flowers and Morel for a 3B prospect that is comparable on the prospect scale as Flowers. This was most likely Morel last spring.

[Steve9347]

Sign AJ (3 years, 24 million), trade Flowers to Mets for a top prospect 3B that is MLB ready and that wold be inexpensive.

I can't believe Hahn hasn't thought of this yet.