White Sox winter meetings thread...

[witesoxfan]

While you're writing programs and punching in numbers to come with that 2.058 figure, I'll be sitting in my recliner with a cold brew and enjoying a ballgame. And the last time I looked on the only output format that really matters (the scoreboard) a home run is worth exactly 1 run with 1 run added for every baserunner. I don't need a computer for that.

 

And I have no problem enjoying the game knowing the statistical analysis behind the outlying numbers themselves while also apprciating 450 foot home runs and incredible diving plays.

 

It's primarily a matter of asking people to not patronize, insult, or ignore the idea of using advanced statistical analysis to determine the value of baseball players and rather to partake and consider that these concepts exist and they are generally accurate in their portrayal. People don't ask you to agree with it or to use it, but for you to try to understand them, to consider that these numbers aren't that complex, and that they do paint a pretty clear picture.

[southsider2k5]

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/baseballinsi...P#axzz2E0MJGoRX

 

--Carl “American Idle” Pavano has changed agents once again, going from Tom O’Connell to Dave Pepe, who represents Pavano’s former Twins teammate Joe Nathan. He’s coming off an injury-plagued 2012 season and turns 37 in January, but he’d be a good low-risk pickup for someone. Possible fits? I say Miami, where he helped the 2003 Marlins get a World Series title, and the White Sox, whose pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the best.

[YASNY]

And I have no problem enjoying the game knowing the statistical analysis behind the outlying numbers themselves while also apprciating 450 foot home runs and incredible diving plays.

 

It's primarily a matter of asking people to not patronize, insult, or ignore the idea of using advanced statistical analysis to determine the value of baseball players and rather to partake and consider that these concepts exist and they are generally accurate in their portrayal. People don't ask you to agree with it or to use it, but for you to try to understand them, to consider that these numbers aren't that complex, and that they do paint a pretty clear picture.

 

This, I can agree with. Though, my main point was I just want to enjoy the game and not make a science out of it.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The advanced stats are a wonderful tool for compiling lists for fantasy drafts and other internet nonsense that doesn't ever matter in real life.

 

In reality, fit is everything.

 

If you're too right-handed, you need lefties.

 

If you're too slow, you need some speed.

 

If you're too one-dimensional in any manner on offense, you need to make the adjustments necessary to score in as many different ways as possible.

 

The Detroit Tigers don't need more win shares up the middle, they need defense up the middle.

 

The Minnesota Twins don't need to figure out the average worth of their home runs, they need to get some starting pitching.

 

The Kansas City Royals might as well can every stat happy member of their FO if their s***ty owner isn't going to spend any money.

 

Etc.

 

Fit is absolutely everything & right now the Sox need a 3B that they can fit into their budget. They're pretty average IMO all across the board, better on the pitching and defense side of things, but the Sox overall don't appear to have an elite starting staff, an elite bullpen, an elite defense, an elite offense, nor are they exceptionally balanced, young, or cheap. Because of this there are several possibilities to consider. If they sign Youkilis then they need to make salary disappear from another area which weakens the team in another area most likely, and also, they still need to acquire a long-term fit (prospect most likely) since Youk isn't going to be more than a 2-3 year option. Youkilis provides some offense, but he's still not going to provide a huge lift unless he has a major rebound which you can't bet on, so if you sign him you still need to add a bat. Get Reynolds and it's the same thing, money and a short term solution, but the defense takes a major hit. The offense upgrades and the cost per year is much lower, and if you plan on Reynolds as a 1B/3B, you're still right-handed heavy, but maybe you can move Paulie or even possibly Dunn in the right deal, and save more cash. Maybe you bring in a little lefty in a platoon role and play him some at 3B and some in the OF or 2B as a backup. There are endless possibilities and I'm not advocating signing either Reynolds or Youkilis, I am just pointing out that *nowhere* in the process do you go all-out all the Bill James and start posting graphs all over the place like in that movie A Beautiful Mind where that dude puts s*** all over his wall because he's trying to catch up to the Ruskies or whatever. You just look at what you have in terms of a lineup, what your defense is, what your payroll situation is, what trade chips you have, etc. and you try to engineer the best possible team in as few moves as possible, because 8 trades and 5 signings in an offseason is really unlikely, but 3 trades and 2 signings could happen. You try to be realistic and you try to keep in line with the major goal of your offseason, which (should be) to either go younger and build a longer term window or contention, or win right now.

 

Also, the home run is the best offensive stat ever. That's the best thing you can do as a hitter and it's value can only ever be equaled, i.e. a HBP with the bases juiced in the bottom of the ninth is just as good as a HR, but it's not better. That said, the HR isn't everything and you'll get into trouble building an offense that can't do much outside of that, but if you are talking about power hitters (and SLG is supposed to measure power/driving the ball) then there is NOTHING better than a HR. Adam Dunn, worst case scenario, collects votes and remains on the HOF ballot when his career is over. Napoli would be very lucky to hang on there long enough to reach year 2. There's no comparison. Both players have exactly 2 skills and that is it. Dunn's use of those 2 skills, both in 2012 and over his career dwarfs Napoli's use of his two skills. The only thing Napoli ever had on Dunn was the ability to call himself a catcher and compare himself to other catchers. He can't do that anymore because he's not good enough to stick there.

 

 

 

 

[SI1020]

All of these offensive numbers do not need to make these kind of estimates. It's all based on linear weights, and it is, conceptually, very simple. Essentially, it has to do with coming up with average run values for each possible offensive event. These values change every year because the run environment changes every year. For example, on average, a homerun was worth 2.058 runs in 2012 because sometimes people were on base and sometimes they weren't on base. If a guy hit a homerun, you give him credit for 2.058 runs regardless, because that's what a homerun is typically worth. You're stripping context from the measurement -- the guy did these things, and we're giving him credit for the average amount of runs so we can compare him to other guys who did similar things.

 

I have a major problem with the bolded.

 

 

No, not at all. You just need to actually try to learn about it before passing judgement, just like everything else on this planet. You just need to set aside uninformed pop journalism prejudices for long enough to actually see what is going on.

 

OMG you obviously don't know me. I love it when someone disagrees or tries to gore a sacred ox, my how the insults or stereotypes fly. As for the whole saber thing, I'm done with it. I'll bet I've spent more time on it, much more time than the average afficianado. Oh and I don't know about pop journalism but right now as I type I'm jamming to the Ramsey Lewis version of The In Crowd. Ordinarily I favor more serious pianists like Monk, Powell and Red Garland. Very little of what I like, journalism or otherwise is pop. Cal Tjader's on now. Gotta go.

[Dick Allen]

The advanced stats are a wonderful tool for compiling lists for fantasy drafts and other internet nonsense that doesn't ever matter in real life.

 

In reality, fit is everything.

 

If you're too right-handed, you need lefties.

 

If you're too slow, you need some speed.

 

If you're too one-dimensional in any manner on offense, you need to make the adjustments necessary to score in as many different ways as possible.

 

The Detroit Tigers don't need more win shares up the middle, they need defense up the middle.

 

The Minnesota Twins don't need to figure out the average worth of their home runs, they need to get some starting pitching.

 

The Kansas City Royals might as well can every stat happy member of their FO if their s***ty owner isn't going to spend any money.

 

Etc.

 

Fit is absolutely everything & right now the Sox need a 3B that they can fit into their budget. They're pretty average IMO all across the board, better on the pitching and defense side of things, but the Sox overall don't appear to have an elite starting staff, an elite bullpen, an elite defense, an elite offense, nor are they exceptionally balanced, young, or cheap. Because of this there are several possibilities to consider. If they sign Youkilis then they need to make salary disappear from another area which weakens the team in another area most likely, and also, they still need to acquire a long-term fit (prospect most likely) since Youk isn't going to be more than a 2-3 year option. Youkilis provides some offense, but he's still not going to provide a huge lift unless he has a major rebound which you can't bet on, so if you sign him you still need to add a bat. Get Reynolds and it's the same thing, money and a short term solution, but the defense takes a major hit. The offense upgrades and the cost per year is much lower, and if you plan on Reynolds as a 1B/3B, you're still right-handed heavy, but maybe you can move Paulie or even possibly Dunn in the right deal, and save more cash. Maybe you bring in a little lefty in a platoon role and play him some at 3B and some in the OF or 2B as a backup. There are endless possibilities and I'm not advocating signing either Reynolds or Youkilis, I am just pointing out that *nowhere* in the process do you go all-out all the Bill James and start posting graphs all over the place like in that movie A Beautiful Mind where that dude puts s*** all over his wall because he's trying to catch up to the Ruskies or whatever. You just look at what you have in terms of a lineup, what your defense is, what your payroll situation is, what trade chips you have, etc. and you try to engineer the best possible team in as few moves as possible, because 8 trades and 5 signings in an offseason is really unlikely, but 3 trades and 2 signings could happen. You try to be realistic and you try to keep in line with the major goal of your offseason, which (should be) to either go younger and build a longer term window or contention, or win right now.

 

Also, the home run is the best offensive stat ever. That's the best thing you can do as a hitter and it's value can only ever be equaled, i.e. a HBP with the bases juiced in the bottom of the ninth is just as good as a HR, but it's not better. That said, the HR isn't everything and you'll get into trouble building an offense that can't do much outside of that, but if you are talking about power hitters (and SLG is supposed to measure power/driving the ball) then there is NOTHING better than a HR. Adam Dunn, worst case scenario, collects votes and remains on the HOF ballot when his career is over. Napoli would be very lucky to hang on there long enough to reach year 2. There's no comparison. Both players have exactly 2 skills and that is it. Dunn's use of those 2 skills, both in 2012 and over his career dwarfs Napoli's use of his two skills. The only thing Napoli ever had on Dunn was the ability to call himself a catcher and compare himself to other catchers. He can't do that anymore because he's not good enough to stick there.

Computers and cell phones are bad ideas too. I don't know what you have against advanced stats that can tell you even more about performance. Granted, no stat is unflawed, but you have written paying Napoli $13 million a year is stupid, and paying Adam Dunn $15 million a year is wise. Then you mention home runs. Over the past 3 years, Napoli homers more per plate appearance than Adam Dunn. Gets more hits, reaches base more often. I would think that is more significant than what happened 7 or 8 years ago.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

While you're writing programs and punching in numbers to come with that 2.058 figure, I'll be sitting in my recliner with a cold brew and enjoying a ballgame. And the last time I looked on the only output format that really matters (the scoreboard) a home run is worth exactly 1 run with 1 run added for every baserunner. I don't need a computer for that.

 

That's totally fine -- if you aren't interested in evaluating player performance, there's nothing wrong with that. Just acknowledge (to yourself) that you have no idea what you're talking about and remember that since you don't understand and have no interest in learning, that no one should take your assessment seriously.

[NorthSideSox72]

That's totally fine -- if you aren't interested in evaluating player performance, there's nothing wrong with that. Just acknowledge (to yourself) that you have no idea what you're talking about and remember that since you don't understand and have no interest in learning, that no one should take your assessment seriously.

Now this is just ridiculous.

 

Having more knowledge of advanced stats does not grant you some sort of special talisman that means anyone else's opinions on the value or performance of a player are wrong. YASNY could just as easily make your exact same post in reverse - that if you are unwilling to acknowledge or learn about the dynamic, non-stats-driven aspects of the game, that your assessments should not be taken seriously. How does that sound to you?

 

Stats are powerful tools in evaluating impact and performance of players over time. They can also be used as semi-reliable predictors of LIKELY outcomes - not definite ones. Therefore, all stats are limited in scope, have inherent flaws, and will never be able to capture all aspects of a player's value to a team. That is an impossible standard.

 

Stats are great. Baseball is great. Stats only describe certain aspects of the game. Get it?

 

[YASNY]

That's totally fine -- if you aren't interested in evaluating player performance, there's nothing wrong with that. Just acknowledge (to yourself) that you have no idea what you're talking about and remember that since you don't understand and have no interest in learning, that no one should take your assessment seriously.

 

Bull! This game has been a huge part of my life enough trust my judgement on what I see, the unmeaserable chemistry factor and watching the game itself being played. I have expressed many opinions over the years on soxtalk and I stand by my record of my words over your stats. I grant that your advanced stats give you a little, very little, insight to player evaluation. For you to come on here and say I have no idea of what I'm talking about because I don't happen to agree with your microscopic standard of player management is ridiculously short-sighted, at best. And, I'm being very restrained in my response to your arrogance.

[ptatc]

Bull! This game has been a huge part of my life enough trust my judgement on what I see, the unmeaserable chemistry factor and watching the game itself being played. I have expressed many opinions over the years on soxtalk and I stand by my record of my words over your stats. I grant that your advanced stats give you a little, very little, insight to player evaluation. For you to come on here and say I have no idea of what I'm talking about because I don't happen to agree with your microscopic standard of player management is ridiculously short-sighted, at best. And, I'm being very restrained in my response to your arrogance.

I love the stats arguments. I was one of the biggest supporters of the advanced stats when they first started coming out in the late 80's early 90's (still am). However with the way some people think they are everything and go overboard on them, I find myself shying away from them. The stats are nothing more than someone's opinion of what is important in baseball and finding numbers for them. They offer insight but are still just a numeric version of someone's opinion.

[bigruss]

Bull! This game has been a huge part of my life enough trust my judgement on what I see, the unmeaserable chemistry factor and watching the game itself being played. I have expressed many opinions over the years on soxtalk and I stand by my record of my words over your stats. I grant that your advanced stats give you a little, very little, insight to player evaluation. For you to come on here and say I have no idea of what I'm talking about because I don't happen to agree with your microscopic standard of player management is ridiculously short-sighted, at best. And, I'm being very restrained in my response to your arrogance.

The arrogance on both sides will make this thread unbearable soon.

[Dick Allen]

The arrogance on both sides will make this thread unbearable soon.

Personally, I think the best evaluators are good using both sides. I think at times stats lie and at times your eyes deceive.

 

That said, I don't think any here actually is being paid for evaluations. If people want to argue a player's worth using either or both, what's the harm? Debating player performance is part of what makes the game fun.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Dick Allen

[chw42]

Bull! This game has been a huge part of my life enough trust my judgement on what I see, the unmeaserable chemistry factor and watching the game itself being played. I have expressed many opinions over the years on soxtalk and I stand by my record of my words over your stats. I grant that your advanced stats give you a little, very little, insight to player evaluation. For you to come on here and say I have no idea of what I'm talking about because I don't happen to agree with your microscopic standard of player management is ridiculously short-sighted, at best. And, I'm being very restrained in my response to your arrogance.

 

I think he was trying to say that you should acknowledge you don't know about the advanced stats themselves (not baseball) and stop attempting to invalidate them (i.e. you go calculate your stupid stats while I drink a refreshment while I watch the game).

[YASNY]

I love the stats arguments. I was one of the biggest supporters of the advanced stats when they first started coming out in the late 80's early 90's (still am). However with the way some people think they are everything and go overboard on them, I find myself shying away from them. The stats are nothing more than someone's opinion of what is important in baseball and finding numbers for them. They offer insight but are still just a numeric version of someone's opinion.

 

I'm not looking to get into a pissing over this crap, and I'm not implying that you in any way are attempting to engage in this. But this ... person, man, woman, kid, bigfoot, neanderthal, whatever ... chose to resort to a personal insult by saying that I didn't know what I was talking about. Ten years of opinions on soxtalk and I don't know s***. Fifty years of fandom. Yeah, right.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

Computers and cell phones are bad ideas too. I don't know what you have against advanced stats that can tell you even more about performance. Granted, no stat is unflawed, but you have written paying Napoli $13 million a year is stupid, and paying Adam Dunn $15 million a year is wise. Then you mention home runs. Over the past 3 years, Napoli homers more per plate appearance than Adam Dunn. Gets more hits, reaches base more often. I would think that is more significant than what happened 7 or 8 years ago.

Ugh.

 

I've responded to all of you points in other posts, I just think that you aren't reading them. That's fine, few here read my posts anyway.

 

For the record, I hate iPads and all that s*** anyway. I think they're excessive and too many people use them to be lazy. When they're too busy looking at their phones and junk to watch for cars while crossing the street/parking lot, I feel a deep inner desire to run them over on purpose. I'd love to own a snowplow, and if I did I'd weld spikes onto it, and I'd pile up bodies in the parking lots of every major shopping area. People wouldn't identify Wal-Marts by the big lighted signs out front, they'd identify the stores by the giant mass of rotting flesh mounded in the back of the parking lot. But I don't know why I'm going on about this because this has nothing to do with baseball.

 

I was just thinking yesterday that it's like I'm the one coaching first base here, and I'm out there shagging flyballs to Rajai Davis, and he keeps making these one-handed spin catches all the time even though after every single one I have to hear Farmio in my ear screaming "God damn it Rajai that's not how we play it!" Do we still play defense in the bottom of the 3rd inning while on the road? Do we still have to wear pants in the outfield? Yes, Rajai. Yes we do. Grab your glove and take the field. The game hasn't changed *that* much in the last 100+ years to the point where OPS on paper is so valuable that it negates proper context. Put aside this argument for a second and just consider that one last point of mine about the HOF. Dunn is going to be on that list, and if he doesn't get in, he'll stick around because of the sheer number of HRs he has hit during his career. Napoli OTOH doesn't sniff it. Maybe you and others think the game hasn't caught up to the times/stats, but I OTOH disagree, and I feel that the understanding of the game has generally gone down, and people probably know less about it now than before, and weights on stats like HRs are actually important for the right reasons. Granted, ERA is way overrated, as is fielding %, but batting average is NOT since contact (especially hard contact) is a specific skill, and so on. Graphs & computers have done a great job as far as evaluating movement on pitches and movement on defense/defensive sets in relation to batted balls, but offensively, IMO the stats are making fans dumber. JMO.

 

Tell ya what: you say toe-mah-toe all you want & I'm gonna keep saying toe-may-toe & that will be that. But if you can find where I said that paying $15M per to Adam Dunn is wise I will not post on this forum for at least 6 months. I promise.

[chw42]

Personally, I think the best evaluators are good using both sides. I think at times stats lie and at times your eyes deceive.

 

That said, I don't think any here actually is being paid for evaluations. If people want to argue a player's worth using either or both, what's the harm? Debating player performance is part of what makes the game fun.

 

Yeah, you need to take a bit of both to evaluate a lot of situations.

 

However, something like the linear weight of a home run isn't really all that complicated or debatable, which is what was being discussed here.

[Dick Allen]

Ugh.

 

I've responded to all of you points in other posts, I just think that you aren't reading them. That's fine, few here read my posts anyway.

 

For the record, I hate iPads and all that s*** anyway. I think they're excessive and too many people use them to be lazy. When they're too busy looking at their phones and junk to watch for cars while crossing the street/parking lot, I feel a deep inner desire to run them over on purpose. I'd love to own a snowplow, and if I did I'd weld spikes onto it, and I'd pile up bodies in the parking lots of every major shopping area. People wouldn't identify Wal-Marts by the big lighted signs out front, they'd identify the stores by the giant mass of rotting flesh mounded in the back of the parking lot. But I don't know why I'm going on about this because this has nothing to do with baseball.

 

I was just thinking yesterday that it's like I'm the one coaching first base here, and I'm out there shagging flyballs to Rajai Davis, and he keeps making these one-handed spin catches all the time even though after every single one I have to hear Farmio in my ear screaming "God damn it Rajai that's not how we play it!" Do we still play defense in the bottom of the 3rd inning while on the road? Do we still have to wear pants in the outfield? Yes, Rajai. Yes we do. Grab your glove and take the field. The game hasn't changed *that* much in the last 100+ years to the point where OPS on paper is so valuable that it negates proper context. Put aside this argument for a second and just consider that one last point of mine about the HOF. Dunn is going to be on that list, and if he doesn't get in, he'll stick around because of the sheer number of HRs he has hit during his career. Napoli OTOH doesn't sniff it. Maybe you and others think the game hasn't caught up to the times/stats, but I OTOH disagree, and I feel that the understanding of the game has generally gone down, and people probably know less about it now than before, and weights on stats like HRs are actually important for the right reasons. Granted, ERA is way overrated, as is fielding %, but batting average is NOT since contact (especially hard contact) is a specific skill, and so on. Graphs & computers have done a great job as far as evaluating movement on pitches and movement on defense/defensive sets in relation to batted balls, but offensively, IMO the stats are making fans dumber. JMO.

 

Tell ya what: you say toe-mah-toe all you want & I'm gonna keep saying toe-may-toe & that will be that. But if you can find where I said that paying $15M per to Adam Dunn is wise I will not post on this forum for at least 6 months. I promise.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:02 PM)

3 years, $39M is a good deal for Dunn if he was a FA right now

 

My mistake, you said 3 years 39 million is a good deal for Dunn.

[YASNY]

I think he was trying to say that you should acknowledge you don't know about the advanced stats themselves (not baseball) and stop attempting to invalidate them (i.e. you go calculate your stupid stats while I drink a refreshment while I watch the game).

 

I simply expressed how I choose to enjoy the game of baseball and did not attempt to invalidate the advanced stats ... disagree with the importance some people put on them, sure. But I didn't personally insult anybody that holds these stats to a higher regard. Wite is an example, he holds a high opinion of these stats but he's knowledgable baseball fan above and beyond just the stats.

 

As for the comment someone made about arrogance on both sides, let someone insult your baseball insight and see if you don't get your hackles up.

[chw42]

I simply expressed how I choose to enjoy the game of baseball and did not attempt to invalidate the advanced stats ... disagree with the importance some people put on them, sure. But I didn't personally insult anybody that holds these stats to a higher regard. Wite is an example, he holds a high opinion of these stats but he's knowledgable baseball fan above and beyond just the stats.

 

As for the comment someone made about arrogance on both sides, let someone insult your baseball insight and see if you don't get your hackles up.

 

I think you have to understand that stats people don't like it when you deem their work to be completely worthless and a waste of time. IMO, that is an insult in what one believes in. Maybe not a personal insult, but a insult nonetheless.

Edited December 4, 2012 by chw42

[The Ultimate Champion]

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:02 PM)

3 years, $39M is a good deal for Dunn if he was a FA right now

 

My mistake, you said 3 years 39 million is a good deal for Dunn.

I did, and in this market I think that's fair coming off another 40+ HR season and given his entire career of performance. I wouldn't personally give that out, but I wouldn't want to give out any of these other deals I keep seeing signed either for the most part. Haren I think is inflated but very fair. Upton's is crazy, but better than Napoli because he does more things.

 

I don't like the way OPS is used in general. Compare the OPS of Paul Konerko (.857 career) to Napoli's (.863 career) and Napoli is better. However, Paul Konerko is a far more dangerous, far more complete and astute hitter than Napoli will ever be. Paulie has been in the league for 16 seasons and will go into his 17th next year, and could very possibly play 20 if he wants to stick around a bit as a platoon type/backup/PH. Napoli OTOH I think would be lucky to get another 4-5 in and he has 7. If you look at needing to upgrade an offense and you say "I'll take Napoli over Paulie because the OPS is higher" then you are very stupidly ignoring all the things Paulie can do as a hitter that Napoli can't, and you're probably hurting yourself. If you want a RH #5/6 type hitter who will clean up behind the bigger boys then Napoli is your kind of guy, but certainly not at $13M per IMO.

[iamshack]

Oh boy...not this again.

 

Please, HahnSolo,make a move...

[The Ultimate Champion]

Bull! This game has been a huge part of my life enough trust my judgement on what I see, the unmeaserable chemistry factor and watching the game itself being played. I have expressed many opinions over the years on soxtalk and I stand by my record of my words over your stats. I grant that your advanced stats give you a little, very little, insight to player evaluation. For you to come on here and say I have no idea of what I'm talking about because I don't happen to agree with your microscopic standard of player management is ridiculously short-sighted, at best. And, I'm being very restrained in my response to your arrogance.

[YASNY]

I think you have to understand that stats people don't like it when you deem their work to be completely worthless and a waste of time. IMO, that is an insult in what one believes in. Maybe not a personal insult, but a insult nonetheless.

 

I don't believe they are worthless and never said so. Microscopic, I did say that ... but I was pissed at the time. I just chose to express how I prefer to enjoy the game. Take that into context. I had already been told I don't what I'm talking and challenged to admit that as fact. Sorry, I know better.

[YASNY]

 

Thank you. That helps.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Oh boy...not this again.

 

Please, HahnSolo,make a move...

We went from Kenny to Can't He.