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'12 payroll was higher than reported, more room available?


southsider2k5

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http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/artic...ws&c_id=cws

 

White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf pointed out Tuesday night that the White Sox payroll for 2012 was higher than what has been reported. While the payroll at the start of the season was $97.7 million, by the end of the season the total figure had risen to $109 million, Reinsdorf said.

 

When asked if the payroll would be at that level again in 2013, Reinsdorf said that it would be at least that much. The White Sox currently have $89.95 million committed to 10 players but still have a little more room to work when factoring in Gordon Beckham and Alejandro De Aza's arbitration and the rest of the roster.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 10:35 AM)

$90M plus say $7M for Beckham and De Aza is $97M. If the payroll is at least that much, that leaves at least $10M of head room. And if you can trade Floyd for Salty or the like, and get a few more million, that should be more than enough to get Youk or AJ or maybe both. If they want to.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:40 AM)
$90M plus say $7M for Beckham and De Aza is $97M. If the payroll is at least that much, that leaves at least $10M of head room. And if you can trade Floyd for Salty or the like, and get a few more million, that should be more than enough to get Youk or AJ or maybe both. If they want to.

But that $97M is only 12 players. Viciedo will be at least $2M. Then the $0.5M league minimum to Quintana, Reed, Flowers, etc., and the head room is gone.

Edited by 3E8
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QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 10:49 AM)
But that $97M is only 12 players. Viciedo will be at least $2M. Then the $0.5M league minimum to Quintana, Reed, Flowers, etc., and the head room is gone.

 

That would put us at about $105m ($99m with Viciedo, plus 12 players at 1/2 million each) without a dealing of Floyd, leaving say $5 million if we stay pretty much where we were last year (say $110m). We are back in the $95 million range if Floyd goes in a deal that doesn't bring back a major leaguer.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 10:54 AM)
That would put us at about $105m ($99m with Viciedo, plus 12 players at 1/2 million each) without a dealing of Floyd, leaving say $5 million if we stay pretty much where we were last year (say $110m). We are back in the $95 million range if Floyd goes in a deal that doesn't bring back a major leaguer.

 

The SP free agent market is thin. Haren signed for $13M and one year with his declining velocity and K rate. Dempster wants $13M per year for three years, will probably get it. Greinke will probably get his 7 Year, $180M deal from the Dodgers. That leaves two legit pitchers available for trade, Nolasco at $11.5M or Floyd at $9.5M. While both one year trades. I do believe there will be a few teams who see one year of Floyd at $9.5M is a better option than Nolasco at $11.5M, Dempster or Haren at $13M. That being said I expect Floyd to be traded. What we get, probably not too much. Maybe a legit prospect with a throw in. Something similar to what Minnesota just got for Span.

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I'll be interested to see what return would be for Floyd. For me to say 'dont trade Gavin' seems to be becoming a more and more outsider opinion. I don't totally see why.

 

Between Sale, Peavy and Danks..injury is (as is the case with everyone) a concern. And at the end of the rotation, there's suckage potential.

 

Again though, want to see what the return will be.

 

 

 

 

I suppose this will be reminiscent of how we traded Jon Garland for an infielder who played a key role for a bit.

Edited by Jose Paniagua
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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:55 AM)
I'll be interested to see what return would be for Floyd. For me to say 'dont trade Gavin' seems to be becoming a more and more outsider opinion. I don't totally see why.

 

Between Sale, Peavy and Danks..injury is (as is the case with everyone) a concern. And at the end of the rotation, there's suckage potential.

 

Again though, want to see what the return will be.

 

 

 

 

I suppose this will be reminiscent of how we traded Jon Garland for an infielder who played a key role for a bit.

The reason is that if Danks comes back strong (there is no reason to expect otherwise) you have a surplus of starting pitchers with a weak offense. If you deal from strength he is the most likely trade candidate. The Sox just need to hope that Sale and Q have no adverse effects of the huge increase in workload last year.

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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:55 AM)
I suppose this will be reminiscent of how we traded Jon Garland for an infielder who played a key role for a bit.

 

Okay, now you got my mind working (my boss has been trying to for years now), who did we trade Garland for again? :huh

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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:55 AM)
I'll be interested to see what return would be for Floyd. For me to say 'dont trade Gavin' seems to be becoming a more and more outsider opinion. I don't totally see why.

 

Between Sale, Peavy and Danks..injury is (as is the case with everyone) a concern. And at the end of the rotation, there's suckage potential.

 

Again though, want to see what the return will be.

 

If Sale or Peavy get seriously hurt, I don't think the Sox stand much of a chance anyways.

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Like was stated above, one of the studs goes down, chances are you aren't winning anyways. Trade Floyd, maybe BMac gets signed, probably not, but in a month or so, there will be a lot of guys in the bargain bin looking for jobs. There's a decent chance one of them is serviceable in cases your #4 or #5 can't handle it.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:09 PM)
Like was stated above, one of the studs goes down, chances are you aren't winning anyways. Trade Floyd, maybe BMac gets signed, probably not, but in a month or so, there will be a lot of guys in the bargain bin looking for jobs. There's a decent chance one of them is serviceable in cases your #4 or #5 can't handle it.

 

I agree completely with this, and I really think the world of Gavin Floyd's talent. He just doesn't make sense at this point.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:01 PM)
The reason is that if Danks comes back strong (there is no reason to expect otherwise) you have a surplus of starting pitchers with a weak offense. If you deal from strength he is the most likely trade candidate. The Sox just need to hope that Sale and Q have no adverse effects of the huge increase in workload last year.

I would think, as long as there aren't any mechanical issues, there is a good chance that guys like Sale and Q will actually do better in 2012, rather than worse - now that they are stretched out innings-wise. Is that not typically the case?

 

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Very sweeping to say 'one of the studs go down, we have no chance of winning'. Danks went down last year, it was nearly enough with the other guys.

 

What if a stud goes down for a chunk of the year (that determines playoff viability) but then will be back for the playoffs? If you guys can paint random scenarios, so can I.

 

The only reason I take these positions is the following: in MLB, you just want to get into the playoffs. It's not like the NBA-- in MLB, once you're in, you have a chance. That's how chaotic MLB playoffs can be.

 

Innings-eaters give you a chance.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:03 PM)
Plus Floyd has really been pretty blah the last few seasons and is a free agent after the year. Do you really want to go 8 figures a year and 4 or 5 years for him? I think the Sox need to re-allocate his dollars for the 2013 squad if they can.

 

In this day and age, Floyd on the open market is probably worth something close to what Danks got in his extension.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 12:18 PM)
I would think, as long as there aren't any mechanical issues, there is a good chance that guys like Sale and Q will actually do better in 2012, rather than worse - now that they are stretched out innings-wise. Is that not typically the case?

Not always. There is some anecdotal research out there that shows that an increase in the amount innings pitched above a certain levels decreases the pitcher's performance the following year.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:18 PM)
Not always. There is some anecdotal research out there that shows that an increase in the amount innings pitched above a certain levels decreases the pitcher's performance the following year.

 

Some people buy into the Verducci effect, some don't. I would have to imagine Peavy, Sale, and Quintana are at the top of that list for 2013.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:19 PM)
Some people buy into the Verducci effect, some don't. I would have to imagine Peavy, Sale, and Quintana are at the top of that list for 2013.

 

Sale and Quintana for sure, Peavy doesn't technically qualify because of his age.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:19 PM)
Some people buy into the Verducci effect, some don't. I would have to imagine Peavy, Sale, and Quintana are at the top of that list for 2013.

 

Even besides the Verducci effect of young pitchers, there is some stuff out there. It mostly involves pitchers who pitch alot in the playoffs and World Series (when most veterans really add innings). Pitchers who go deep into the playoffs sometimes tend to have down years the next year. Some speculate this is why it is difficult to repeat as Champions. Again anecdotal stuff but it is a guideline than a rule.

 

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