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AJ will not return to Sox


Big Hurt35

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:02 AM)
The catchers who signed were back ups like Laird and Ross. The only starting catcher who signed I believe, was Russell Martin. Napoli, who isn't really a catcher, has not signed.

Not exactly true/fair/realistic. Napoli was signed...but the deal hasn't been completed because of health issues.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 08:02 AM)
More AJ isn't any good and nobody wants him hyperbole.

 

 

The catchers who signed were back ups like Laird and Ross. The only starting catcher who signed I believe, was Russell Martin. Napoli, who isn't really a catcher, has not signed.

 

Well, he agreed to one, but they are worried about his hips.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 08:02 AM)
More AJ isn't any good and nobody wants him hyperbole.

 

 

The catchers who signed were back ups like Laird and Ross. The only starting catcher who signed I believe, was Russell Martin. Napoli, who isn't really a catcher, has not signed.

 

In exactly 2/3 of the games that Napoli appeared last year, he played catcher. How exactly is he not a catcher?

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:02 AM)
More AJ isn't any good and nobody wants him hyperbole.

 

 

The catchers who signed were back ups like Laird and Ross. The only starting catcher who signed I believe, was Russell Martin. Napoli, who isn't really a catcher, has not signed.

The proof is in the pudding. Nobody wanted AJ. That's why he didn't even get a 2 year offer. He's just not a catcher anymore. I would have loved to have him as a back up, but there's no way he'd do it. With his attitude, it would be more harm than good.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:13 AM)
The proof is in the pudding. Nobody wanted AJ. That's why he didn't even get a 2 year offer. He's just not a catcher anymore. I would have loved to have him as a back up, but there's no way he'd do it. With his attitude, it would be more harm than good.

Huh?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:18 AM)
Yes. He's not the greatest defender back there, but if he's not a catcher then there are like 8 catchers in the league.

Not the greatest defender? LOL. It's not like he's league average. He's bad. He was never a good catcher, and last year he showed regression. He went from bad to really bad.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:22 AM)
Not the greatest defender? LOL. It's not like he's league average. He's bad. He was never a good catcher, and last year he showed regression. He went from bad to really bad.

Which is funny, because both fangraphs and B-R have him being better on defense in 2012 than he was in 2011.

 

The only year he's been moderately below average on defense was 2011. Aside from that, including 2012, he's been about average with everything rolled in together.

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I call BS. He's an awful defender. He had a career year in his mid 30's. If he was anybody else, we'd all be convinced he was cheating. He's a DH playing an important defensive position. For the life of me, I can't understand the butt hurt. I really can't. Granted, I've always disliked the guy, but I'll root for a guy I don't like, if it's the right move. Resigning AJ clearly wasn't the right move. The only thing he had going for him was hitting from the left side. I'd make a decent wager Flowers puts up a better WAR with more HR's and walks. Its pretty evident Rick Hahn agrees.

The ONLY "advantage" Flowers has over AJ is that he's cheaper. That's it! (Unless striking out 200+ times is an advantage?)

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Which is funny, because both fangraphs and B-R have him being better on defense in 2012 than he was in 2011.

 

The only year he's been moderately below average on defense was 2011. Aside from that, including 2012, he's been about average with everything rolled in together.

Didn't AJ throw out a higher percentage of base stealers in 2012 than he had in previous years?

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:33 AM)
Didn't AJ throw out a higher percentage of base stealers in 2012 than he had in previous years?

Correct. Some may think that's a consequence of the pitchers being more prepared, but that's something he definitely improved on.

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Here's the bottom line...as of 12/21/12, the current Sox are not as good as the 2012 Sox. We have taken a big step backwards at C, (and left handed hitting!) and arguably at 3B (the jury is still out on Youk vs Keppinger). If Danks comes back, that's a plus. Does Danks coming back come close to equalling the effect that Victor Martinez coming back to Detroit will have? Not likely.

 

I'm not suggesting "panic mode" yet, but if the Sox don't make MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS prior to the 2013, they might as well start the rebuild ASAP.

 

Just one man's humble opinion....

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I really don't think this step back at catcher is as big as a lot of people think. I honestly think Flowers could very easily be a .250/.350/.500 player at his peak and he could be a guy that hits 25-30 homers, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him out OPS AJ next season.

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:50 AM)
Here's the bottom line...as of 12/21/12, the current Sox are not as good as the 2012 Sox. We have taken a big step backwards at C, (and left handed hitting!) and arguably at 3B (the jury is still out on Youk vs Keppinger). If Danks comes back, that's a plus. Does Danks coming back come close to equalling the effect that Victor Martinez coming back to Detroit will have? Not likely.

 

I'm not suggesting "panic mode" yet, but if the Sox don't make MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS prior to the 2013, they might as well start the rebuild ASAP.

 

Just one man's humble opinion....

To be fair...there are a couple wild cards also.

 

You're also not just going from Youk to Keppinger, you're going from 2.5 months of Morel + Hudson + 3.5 months of Youk to Keppinger. That makes it a lot more likely to be a wash/upgrade.

 

But where we really need to improve on last year is the pitching, if we want to compete. We had too many innings where guys were put in situations they shouldn't have been in because of injury or lack of depth. This year, a lot of those guys are now 2nd year players. If they improve somewhat now that they're no longer rookies, then that can make up the difference. Danks returning could also help a lot.

 

The biggest downside risk though, is also the pitching...and that's because of the Verducci effect. If that holds, then Peavy, Quintana, and Sale are all high on the list of risky guys, because they vastly increased their innings load last year. If our pitching coach can overcome that trend and take advantage of those guys being stretched out to improve their late-season reliability...then that can overcome that gap.

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Hahn not bringing back AJ isn't about the money, it's about developing a long-term answer at catcher. Flowers is going to be 27 next year and I'm not sure how many people realize that. It's really now or never for him. If Hahn brought back AJ, he'd basically be writing off Flowers.

 

And let's not forget that Flowers was a highly regarded catching propsect. This was entirely due to his bat and he put up some big numbers in the minors. Yes, we all know he strikes out a ton, but he walks a lot and hits a lot of HRs. As a catcher he doesn't need to put up Adam Dunn like BB & HR totals to be valuable. With consistent playing time, he should make better contact too. He's not going to be Mike Piazza, but he could become a poor man's Mike Napoli IMO.

 

Furthermore, despite being an offensive-minded prospect, he's developed into an above-average defender. For a team that is pitching-driven, his defense will be extremely valuable. The presence of his arm should slow down the run game quite a bit and allow the pitchers to focus more on the batters and less on the base-runners. That's something that's nearly impossible to quantify, but it will make the pitching staff better.

 

Overall, if everything goes right, we have an above-average catcher in his prime under contract for 5 years. That's what Hahn is hoping for and the only way to find that out is if Flowers is given a chance to play everday.

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