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AJ will not return to Sox


Big Hurt35

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QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 12:32 PM)
Computers do not agree with you guys and say Sox are one of the least improved teams this offseason.

 

See table in this article.

For what it's worth -- also on the list of least improved teams: the team that signed AJP

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:35 AM)
They already re-signed Geovany Soto, so they will be in a L/R platoon I assume. There is talk that they will use AJP as DH sometimes too.

I would have no problem with the Sox doing this, but I wonder if the Sox thought there might be issues with AJ's ego if he took a back seat to Flowers.

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Why not? If the pitching slightly improves on last year, when it was the biggest weakness on the team, why can that not be worth a couple of wins? If Keppinger is serviceable then the Sox have the same 3b setup they had last year, and if Flowers is adequate behind the plate last year, then they lose a slight bit of offense from the #4 offense in the league (which they might well make up for with defense).

Because Detroit added Torii Hunter and gets Victor Martinez back. Those are HUGE pieces!

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:36 AM)
I would have no problem with the Sox doing this, but I wonder if the Sox thought there might be issues with AJ's ego if he took a back seat to Flowers.

Almost guaranteed.

 

If AJ was on the Sox, he's catching 120 games unless he gets hurt. If you want to give the young catcher a shot, that's a bad thing. No one in Texas cares about developing HGovannyH or seeing what he can do for the long term.

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:37 AM)
Because Detroit added Torii Hunter and gets Victor Martinez back. Those are HUGE pieces!

 

Hunter turns 38 this season and Martinez is coming back from a pretty severe knee injury. There are no guarantees for either of those two.

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Torii had a pretty good season in 2012. Victor coming back is a bonus. Without V-Mart, the Tigers still finished better than the Sox last season.

 

Don't forget, the Royals are much improved too. In fact, most of the guys I've heard on MLB radio have KC finishing in 2nd in the Central next year.

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:52 AM)
Assuming both Danks and V-Mart come back at 100%; who do you think accounts for more wins? WARs?

 

Danks without a doubt

 

Martinez is going to be primarily a DH, so whatever offense he adds is going to add less value than Danks will in the rotation.

Edited by witesoxfan
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QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:32 AM)
Computers do not agree with you guys and say Sox are one of the least improved teams this offseason.

 

See table in this article.

I'm surprised that we're projected currently as a 77-win team. I had figured us slightly above .500. The 2012 team outscored opponents by over 70 runs, a pythagorean 88-win team.

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At 1/$7.5M, I am perfectly happy they didn't sign him.

 

Despite what B>W and others have said, I actually do think Flowers is likely to be a better player than AJ in 2013, and even more confident in that in 2014. If you look at AJ's career numbers, 2012 was highly aberrant. IF he puts up the more likely OPS of high 600's, which is slightly below his career averages (he's 36), with his terrible defense... Flowers will very likely beat that. And for $500k instead of $7.5M. It is POSSIBLE Aj has a 2013 like his 2012 offensively... but very, very unlikely.

 

You aren't deciding between 2012 AJ and 2012 Flowers, you are deciding on 2013.

 

 

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 09:32 AM)
Computers do not agree with you guys and say Sox are one of the least improved teams this offseason.

 

See table in this article.

 

Over the years, many of the heavily reported computer projections from various publications have been less able to predict the Sox than any other team. I seem to recall B-A or B-P even penning an article about how wrong they amost always were about the Sox, for whatever reason(s). I'd bet if you look at the pre-season polls taken on SoxTalk every year, using the average win total, this site would be better correlated to reality than those publications.

 

I think the really interesting question is... WHY are the Sox specifically so hard to predict?

 

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Danks without a doubt

 

Martinez is going to be primarily a DH, so whatever offense he adds is going to add less value than Danks will in the rotation.

I like Danks a lot...that said, if given a choice between having him on my team or Victor Martinez, I'd have to go with Victor.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:27 AM)
At 1/$7.5M, I am perfectly happy they didn't sign him.

 

Despite what B>W and others have said, I actually do think Flowers is likely to be a better player than AJ in 2013, and even more confident in that in 2014. If you look at AJ's career numbers, 2012 was highly aberrant. IF he puts up the more likely OPS of high 600's, which is slightly below his career averages (he's 36), with his terrible defense... Flowers will very likely beat that. And for $500k instead of $7.5M. It is POSSIBLE Aj has a 2013 like his 2012 offensively... but very, very unlikely.

 

You aren't deciding between 2012 AJ and 2012 Flowers, you are deciding on 2013.

 

So important to note here.

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:29 AM)
I like Danks a lot...that said, if given a choice between having him on my team or Victor Martinez, I'd have to go with Victor.

 

You keep changing the arguments you are making. Danks and Victor hold completely different values to their respective teams.

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:29 AM)
I like Danks a lot...that said, if given a choice between having him on my team or Victor Martinez, I'd have to go with Victor.

 

I like Peyton Manning a lot, but if given the choice between Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, I'd take Josh Hamilton.

 

This is essentially your argument right now.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:41 AM)
I like Peyton Manning a lot, but if given the choice between Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, I'd take Josh Hamilton.

 

This is essentially your argument right now.

 

:lol:

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QUOTE (Lamar Johnson 23 @ Dec 21, 2012 -> 10:54 AM)
Ok...I'll play your (stupid) semantics game, who do you think is a BETTER BASEBALL PLAYER, John Danks or Victor Martinez?

 

Who is the better pitcher, Victor Martinez or Adam Dunn?

 

Who is the better hitter, John Danks or Anibal Sanchez?

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