Rick Hahn

[southsider2k5]

My problem is that we got about as much production out of what I would call the "keys" to our ballclub last year as one could legitimately expect, and still couldn't win a crappy division. I just don't see those same keys putting up that same production again this year.

 

It's like when you're playing blackjack and you can't win with 19 and 20's...at some point, you just shake your head and say "it's not my night."

 

I'm kind of feeling that way about this roster.

 

I sure hope I am wrong.

 

I don't really agree with that. We got nothing in the second half out of Konerko and Dunn. We got nothing out of John Danks. Addison Reed flopped pretty badly out of the closer role. Peavy and Sale didn't really go a full season.

 

There is still plenty of upside here.

[iamshack]

I don't really agree with that. We got nothing in the second half out of Konerko and Dunn. We got nothing out of John Danks. Addison Reed flopped pretty badly out of the closer role. Peavy and Sale didn't really go a full season.

 

There is still plenty of upside here.

Maybe so, but we got out of Quintana some pretty similar production that one could have expected from John Danks, Dunn hit 40 home runs, and I don't see PK improving on his '12 numbers a whole lot this season. Hard to expect Sale and Peavy to replicate '12, let alone improve on it in '13, if you ask me.

[caulfield12]

Reed and Jones are going to be keys.

 

The bullpen was atrocious the first two months, and that really hurt us in the end.

 

If you look at our starters, the only areas where you can look for improvement are probably going to be Viciedo (doubles, walks, batting average), Ramirez and Beckham.

 

Flowers, there's just not many who are going to go out on a limb and say he'll come close to replicating AJ's 2012 season offensively, although some might argue their 2013 numbers could be similar.

 

Hopefully, DeAza can stay healthy and hit at something between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.

 

You can also look at the overall numbers for 3B going up, because they were atrocious simply due to the first 2-3 months of Morel and then Hudson manning the position. Anything over a 700+ OPS would be great, but then you also have to consider the defensive shortcomings of Keppinger as well.

 

 

 

 

[bhawk99]

CF A. Jackson 7 vs DeAza 6 slight advantage Jackson

LF T. Hunter 6 vs Tank 7 almost a wash but I'll say slight advantage Tank

RF Q. Berry/ A. Garcia 6 vs Rios 8 advantage Rios

1B Prince 9 vs Paulie 8 sorry to say but I have to give advantage to Prince

2B R. Santiago 4 vs Beckham 5 both suck but because of D slight advantage Beckham

SS J. Peralta 5 vs Alexi 7 advantage Alexi

3B KM. Cabrerra 10 vs Keppinger 7 blowout advantage Cabrerra

C A. Avila 5 vs Flowers 4 Flowers is unproven advantage Avila

DH V. Martinez 8 vs Dunn 8 push

Ace Verlander 10 vs Sale 9 Sale is very good but Verlander gets the advantage

Rest of Starters Det 6 Sox 7 slight advantage Sox

Bullpens Det 5 Sox 5 push

Bench Det 5 Sox 3 Sox have no bench

Manager Det 6 Sox 4 Robin still learning

 

In my opinion and home made formula Detroit wins 92 games and the Sox win 88 [maybe enough for wildcard but doubtful]

 

4 games Detroit advantage is catchable if Rick Hahn makes the right moves. Come on Rick we are counting on you.

[justBLAZE]

Hey Rick Hahn:

 

[Cali]

Weren't Hamilton and Greinke the dominos that were supposed to fall in order for the Sox to find a taker for Floyd/Thornton/DeAza/Viciedo etc?

 

 

[caulfield12]

CF A. Jackson 7 vs DeAza 6 slight advantage Jackson

LF T. Hunter 6 vs Tank 7 almost a wash but I'll say slight advantage Tank

RF Q. Berry/ A. Garcia 6 vs Rios 8 advantage Rios

1B Prince 9 vs Paulie 8 sorry to say but I have to give advantage to Prince

2B R. Santiago 4 vs Beckham 5 both suck but because of D slight advantage Beckham

SS J. Peralta 5 vs Alexi 7 advantage Alexi

3B KM. Cabrerra 10 vs Keppinger 7 blowout advantage Cabrerra

C A. Avila 5 vs Flowers 4 Flowers is unproven advantage Avila

DH V. Martinez 8 vs Dunn 8 push

Ace Verlander 10 vs Sale 9 Sale is very good but Verlander gets the advantage

Rest of Starters Det 6 Sox 7 slight advantage Sox

Bullpens Det 5 Sox 5 push

Bench Det 5 Sox 3 Sox have no bench

Manager Det 6 Sox 4 Robin still learning

 

In my opinion and home made formula Detroit wins 92 games and the Sox win 88 [maybe enough for wildcard but doubtful]

 

4 games Detroit advantage is catchable if Rick Hahn makes the right moves. Come on Rick we are counting on you.

 

 

I would probably pick Dunn over Victor Martinez, simply because Martinez is coming off a devastating injury.

 

Bruce Rondon is currently projected to be the Tigers' closer, and that's a HUGE gamble to go with a rookie when you have the nearly complete roster that Detroit does. Alburqurque and Coke would be back-up options for now, as well as Villarreal, Benoit and Dotel. Very, very deep bullpen...with Drew Smyly a capable back-end of the rotation guy but currently slated as the long man.

 

Considering I'm not 100% confident in either Addison Reed or N. Jones, and the fact that Thornton might be traded, a definite edge goes to DET for now, although Rondon could certainly blow up like Valverde did last season.

 

Infante was disappointing defensively for the Tigers, but he was a better offensive player than Beckham last year, so it's probably a wash, with the "upside/potential" tag no longer quite so bright for Gordo.

 

Quintin Berry and Andy Dirks are likely to platoon in LF unless they decide to go with Avisail Garcia everyday...doubt Garcia will stay in the bigs as a player getting only 30% of the at-bats.

 

Brennan Boesch, Danny Worth and Darin Downs might be on the outside looking in for roster spots.

If they waive him, he would be a good pick-up for the White Sox to replace Dan Johnson and take some ab's from Viciedo.

 

Peavy vs. Scherzer (based on the 2nd half of last season, BIG edge to Scherzer)

Fister vs. Danks (edge to Fister, as Danks is coming off an injury and Fister has been close to great when healthy for the Tigers)

A. Sanchez vs. Floyd (edge to Tigers)

Porcello vs. Quintana/Santiago (slight edge to Tigers)

 

There's just no way that you can give the Sox rotation 2-5 an advantage over the Tigers at this point either. Scherzer was close to as good as Verlander in the 2nd half and led the AL in K's, whereas Peavy was one of the 5 best pitchers in the AL the first half and faded down the end a bit.

 

Fister and Sanchez were both great near the end of the season...whereas Gavin is Gavin.

 

Porcello has disappointed, but he's their version of Jon Garland and could have a breakout season. 90% of scouts in baseball would pick him over either Quintana or Hector Santiago.

 

Heck, you could also argue Drew Smyly over either Quintana or Santiago.

[southsider2k5]

Maybe so, but we got out of Quintana some pretty similar production that one could have expected from John Danks, Dunn hit 40 home runs, and I don't see PK improving on his '12 numbers a whole lot this season. Hard to expect Sale and Peavy to replicate '12, let alone improve on it in '13, if you ask me.

 

There is also plenty of upside left in the pen, and out of guys like Alexei and Gordon.

[Balta1701]

There is also plenty of upside left in the pen, and out of guys like Alexei and Gordon.

(and Viciedo...perhaps the biggest upside of them all).

[Marty34]

Maybe so, but we got out of Quintana some pretty similar production that one could have expected from John Danks, Dunn hit 40 home runs, and I don't see PK improving on his '12 numbers a whole lot this season. Hard to expect Sale and Peavy to replicate '12, let alone improve on it in '13, if you ask me.

 

Saw a projection that had the Sox as a 77 win team right now. I think that's a fair assessment.

[NorthSideSox72]

Saw a projection that had the Sox as a 77 win team right now. I think that's a fair assessment.

 

The SoxTalk crowd, whenever we do the poll in Spring Training, is actually amazingly good at predicting the season. The top of the bell curve is usually really close, at least the last few years. Better than a lot of the professional projections have been.

 

77 wins seems far too low to me. This was an 85 win team... now getting back what was supposed to be its best starting pitcher, and with Sale and Q matured a year... a bullpen more loaded with rookies than any in baseball in years has had a chance to grow up... the team now has a 3B that won't (likely) be a black hole for the first half of the season... Viciedo and Flowers with a chance to grow into their roles. On the downside, there is almost no way the Sox get production at C anything like what AJ had in 2012... and Rios is highly unlikely to repeat his 2012, though his mechanical changes meant he was more consistent through the year, so a big drop isn't likely... and then you have the arm health questions about Danks and Sale.

 

Assuming Danks can get back to being somewhat close to his healthy numbers, and Sale/Q handle the innings load OK... this team should be better than last year, not worse. So go up from 85, instead of down. If healthy becomes an issue for multiple SP's, then yeah, 77 wins is a good guess, or maybe worse.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

Saw a projection that had the Sox as a 77 win team right now. I think that's a fair assessment.

 

No way we lost 8 wins this offseason.

[caulfield12]

Saw a projection that had the Sox as a 77 win team right now. I think that's a fair assessment.

 

 

77-85 wins is probably where 15-18 major league teams come into nearly every season projected at...

 

They're definitely not in rebuilding mode, more like "win as you go" while trying to get younger and cheaper simultaneously.

 

Even with Josh Hamilton signed to play CF and DeAza in LF, you would be hard pressed to put up 90 wins unless Danks comes back at 100%, the bullpen is better than major league average and the Sox could also stay relatively healthy.

 

FWIW, if the Tigers let Brennan Boesch go, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up in a Sox uniform as LH insurance for Viciedo.

Edited January 8, 2013 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

No way we lost 8 wins this offseason.

 

 

Between AJ being gone, the fact that Ozzie Guillen not being around won't count for plus 3 wins again, the wear and tear on Peavy/Sale/Quintana, uncertainty over Danks' health, Flowers' bat, trepidation about Reed and Jones in the bullpen, about Keppinger holding up as an everyday player...and the improvements in the Tigers, Royals and Indians (on paper), it's probably not minus 8 but minus 3-5 realistically. And that's with Rios and Dunn putting up similar seasons to what they managed in 2012 offensively.

Edited January 8, 2013 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

Between AJ being gone, the fact that Ozzie Guillen not being around won't count for plus 3 wins again, the wear and tear on Peavy/Sale/Quintana, uncertainty over Danks' health, Flowers' bat, trepidation about Reed and Jones in the bullpen, about Keppinger holding up as an everyday player...and the improvements in the Tigers, Royals and Indians (on paper), it's probably not minus 8 but minus 3-5 realistically. And that's with Rios and Dunn putting up similar seasons to what they managed in 2012 offensively.

Dunn didn't have a good season, so I'm not sure why people think he's unlikely to repeat his 2012 totals.

 

Also, I think Robin made some rookie mistakes last year that cost us some games. We could win a few more in 2013 just from his natural development.

[Marty34]

The SoxTalk crowd, whenever we do the poll in Spring Training, is actually amazingly good at predicting the season. The top of the bell curve is usually really close, at least the last few years. Better than a lot of the professional projections have been.

 

77 wins seems far too low to me. This was an 85 win team... now getting back what was supposed to be its best starting pitcher, and with Sale and Q matured a year... a bullpen more loaded with rookies than any in baseball in years has had a chance to grow up... the team now has a 3B that won't (likely) be a black hole for the first half of the season... Viciedo and Flowers with a chance to grow into their roles. On the downside, there is almost no way the Sox get production at C anything like what AJ had in 2012... and Rios is highly unlikely to repeat his 2012, though his mechanical changes meant he was more consistent through the year, so a big drop isn't likely... and then you have the arm health questions about Danks and Sale.

 

Assuming Danks can get back to being somewhat close to his healthy numbers, and Sale/Q handle the innings load OK... this team should be better than last year, not worse. So go up from 85, instead of down. If healthy becomes an issue for multiple SP's, then yeah, 77 wins is a good guess, or maybe worse.

 

Best case scenario for the pitching aside, this team is going to have difficulty scoring. What do you expect from Konerko, Dunn, and Viciedo? I see a net drop from last year even if Viciedo improves. And as you mentioned, Flowers isn't going to put up 2012 AJ numbers. I don't see improvements from Keppinger, Ramirez, and Beckham (if they happen) being enough to offset the declines.

[ZionrulZ]

CF A. Jackson 7 vs DeAza 6 slight advantage Jackson

LF T. Hunter 6 vs Tank 7 almost a wash but I'll say slight advantage Tank

RF Q. Berry/ A. Garcia 6 vs Rios 8 advantage Rios

1B Prince 9 vs Paulie 8 sorry to say but I have to give advantage to Prince

2B R. Santiago 4 vs Beckham 5 both suck but because of D slight advantage Beckham

SS J. Peralta 5 vs Alexi 7 advantage Alexi

3B KM. Cabrerra 10 vs Keppinger 7 blowout advantage Cabrerra

C A. Avila 5 vs Flowers 4 Flowers is unproven advantage Avila

DH V. Martinez 8 vs Dunn 8 push

Ace Verlander 10 vs Sale 9 Sale is very good but Verlander gets the advantage

Rest of Starters Det 6 Sox 7 slight advantage Sox

Bullpens Det 5 Sox 5 push

Bench Det 5 Sox 3 Sox have no bench

Manager Det 6 Sox 4 Robin still learning

 

In my opinion and home made formula Detroit wins 92 games and the Sox win 88 [maybe enough for wildcard but doubtful]

 

4 games Detroit advantage is catchable if Rick Hahn makes the right moves. Come on Rick we are counting on you.

 

Fair analysis, except for 3 issues...1) If you give the advantage to Beckham over Santiago because of defense, then you have to give the advantage to Torii over Tank for the same reason. Hunter is WAYYY better defensively than Viciedo ever will be. 2) IMO, you are underrating Detroit's starters (2-5). 3) The difference between Jim Leyland and Robin Ventura (at this point) is more like 8-4 than 6-4. Leyland is one of the best managers ever.

[iamshack]

Saw a projection that had the Sox as a 77 win team right now. I think that's a fair assessment.

I think that is fair as well.

[bigruss]

I think that is fair as well.

I think we are slightly higher, more like 80-82 wins.

 

That said, it pretty much states that without a few moves, this team needs a ton to go right to compete which is spot on. Rickels has time though.

[Cali]

As constructed right now, this team is at about 83 wins... Same old, Same old. Middle of the Pack Purgatory.

[ZionrulZ]

As constructed right now, this team is at about 83 wins... Same old, Same old. Middle of the Pack Purgatory.

[Balta1701]

Best case scenario for the pitching aside, this team is going to have difficulty scoring. What do you expect from Konerko, Dunn, and Viciedo? I see a net drop from last year even if Viciedo improves. And as you mentioned, Flowers isn't going to put up 2012 AJ numbers. I don't see improvements from Keppinger, Ramirez, and Beckham (if they happen) being enough to offset the declines.

This was the #4 offense in the AL last year.

 

From that offense, they've added ~.135 OPS points at 3b, assuming Keppinger puts up something close to his career average. For comparison, that'd be about the equivalent offensive upgrade of Dayan Viciedo from last year turning into Billy Butler.

 

Yes, we've lost AJ. If Flowers can put up a low.-700's OPS, then those 2 positions are very close to a wash together...and at the same time, OBP has been upgraded and the lineup has gained more stability by removing the 3b black hole that existed for 2 months.

 

So, if this team is going to struggle to score runs, then a very large number of bad things must happen. Konerko, Dunn, Rios, and De Aza must produce significantly less between them, perhaps along with Flowers and Keppinger doing extra struggling beyond those numbers, and there can be limited improvement from Viciedo, Beckham, Ramirez, and the remainder of the bench (which was exceedingly weak last year).

 

For this team to struggle to score runs, you need more than a net drop, you need an implosion from one or more of those guys. You need 2011 Dunn and Rios. If that happens, this team will struggle to score runs.

[southsider2k5]

This was the #4 offense in the AL last year.

 

From that offense, they've added ~.135 OPS points at 3b, assuming Keppinger puts up something close to his career average. For comparison, that'd be about the equivalent offensive upgrade of Dayan Viciedo from last year turning into Billy Butler.

 

Yes, we've lost AJ. If Flowers can put up a low.-700's OPS, then those 2 positions are very close to a wash together...and at the same time, OBP has been upgraded and the lineup has gained more stability by removing the 3b black hole that existed for 2 months.

 

So, if this team is going to struggle to score runs, then a very large number of bad things must happen. Konerko, Dunn, Rios, and De Aza must produce significantly less between them, perhaps along with Flowers and Keppinger doing extra struggling beyond those numbers, and there can be limited improvement from Viciedo, Beckham, Ramirez, and the remainder of the bench (which was exceedingly weak last year).

 

For this team to struggle to score runs, you need more than a net drop, you need an implosion from one or more of those guys. You need 2011 Dunn and Rios. If that happens, this team will struggle to score runs.

 

AJ isn't going to put up his 2012 numbers again either.

[Balta1701]

AJ isn't going to put up his 2012 numbers again either.

True, but that's an .830-ish OPS (heavy on the slugging) that the Sox need to replace to have a similar production level. So if Flowers puts up an OPS around .700 and Keppinger is around .730, the Sox are at about the same starting point as last year, except with a more balanced lineup and an OBP upgrade. If Flowers comes in ~ .750 or better, which he's fully capable of doing, then the White Sox have upgraded those 2 positions compared to last year, on the whole.

[LittleHurt05]

Between AJ being gone, the fact that Ozzie Guillen not being around won't count for plus 3 wins again, the wear and tear on Peavy/Sale/Quintana, uncertainty over Danks' health, Flowers' bat, trepidation about Reed and Jones in the bullpen, about Keppinger holding up as an everyday player...and the improvements in the Tigers, Royals and Indians (on paper), it's probably not minus 8 but minus 3-5 realistically. And that's with Rios and Dunn putting up similar seasons to what they managed in 2012 offensively.

 

Let's remember that Danks essentially provided you nothing in 2012, so his health concerns don't really subtract anything. His ERA was 5.70 in the 53.2 innings he did pitch.