Rick Hahn

[Cali]

Pitchers & Catcher report in 40 days.... When do we start worrying that this is the team we're gonna have?

 

I wasn't. I thought for sure Thornton or Floyd would be moved by now, but s***... Looking like they might be with the team in Arizona

[Marty34]

Pitchers & Catcher report in 40 days.... When do we start worrying that this is the team we're gonna have?

I wasn't. I thought for sure Thornton or Floyd would be moved by now, but s***... Looking like they might be with the team in Arizona

 

It depends on what your expectations are for this team. I think 77 wins is a reasonable expectation. I posted an article where Scott Boras gave a pretty good argument that team's should be at their historical high for payroll given that revenues are up 200% since 2000 and franchise values have skyrocketed. No reason to believe the Sox couldn't add $25M to their payroll with ease.

[ScottyDo]

It depends on what your expectations are for this team. I think 77 wins is a reasonable expectation. I posted an article where Scott Boras gave a pretty good argument that team's should be at their historical high for payroll given that revenues are up 200% since 2000 and franchise values have skyrocketed. No reason to believe the Sox couldn't add $25M to their payroll with ease.

Sounds trustworthy. He's got nothing at stake there.

 

Incidentally, I saw a commercial by a corn lobby recently. It turns out high fructose corn syrup is totally cool now.

[Thad Bosley]

It depends on what your expectations are for this team. I think 77 wins is a reasonable expectation. I posted an article where Scott Boras gave a pretty good argument that team's should be at their historical high for payroll given that revenues are up 200% since 2000 and franchise values have skyrocketed. No reason to believe the Sox couldn't add $25M to their payroll with ease.

Approximately half of the 2011 White Sox opening day roster is still on the team as of now. In many instances where the roster has turned over, it has represented an upgrade (e.g. De Aza > Pierre; Keppinger > Morel; Veal > Ohman) or a neutral changeover. Now that 2011 team underachieved about as much as we could have ever thought possible, and yet they still managed to win 79 games. So how, precisely, do you reach this conclusion that 77 wins is a "reasonable expectation"?

[southsider2k5]

Sounds trustworthy. He's got nothing at stake there.

 

Incidentally, I saw a commercial by a corn lobby recently. It turns out high fructose corn syrup is totally cool now.

 

[ptatc]

Sounds trustworthy. He's got nothing at stake there.

 

Incidentally, I saw a commercial by a corn lobby recently. It turns out high fructose corn syrup is totally cool now.

The body doesn't know the difference between types of sugar.

[Chicago White Sox]

It depends on what your expectations are for this team. I think 77 wins is a reasonable expectation. I posted an article where Scott Boras gave a pretty good argument that team's should be at their historical high for payroll given that revenues are up 200% since 2000 and franchise values have skyrocketed. No reason to believe the Sox couldn't add $25M to their payroll with ease.

How many teams are actually up 200% or anywhere close that number though? I'd be willing to guess that number is highly skewed by some major TV deals for a couple premier franchises.

[TomSeaverFan]

Pitchers & Catcher report in 40 days.... When do we start worrying that this is the team we're gonna have?

 

I wasn't. I thought for sure Thornton or Floyd would be moved by now, but s***... Looking like they might be with the team in Arizona

 

I can't imaging any big trades coming at this point, can you? It looks like they are banking on the possibility of this pitching staff being dominant to go with just enough offense to win.

[Balta1701]

I can't imaging any big trades coming at this point, can you? It looks like they are banking on the possibility of this pitching staff being dominant to go with just enough offense to win.

Once again...I'll repeat.

 

The White Sox scored the 4th most runs in the American league last year. They outscored the Tigers. They outscored every other team in the AL Central.

 

They did so with a .600 OPS out of their 3b slot. That's cumulative, over the full season...a .600 OPS. Counting Youkilis.

 

Getting >.700 OPS out of the 3b slot would be like Viciedo turning into an all star for what it would do to the offense.

 

Yes, we lost AJ and his .830 OPS. Flowers could do that, but if all he does is put up a low-.700 OPS, the Sox will, on paper, be exactly where they were last year in offense.

 

If they're expecting "Just enough offense", then they're expecting substantially worse seasons from Rios, Konerko, etc, with no improvement from Viciedo or Beckham to offset it. Because last year, the Sox had substantial offense.

 

It was the middle-of-the-pack pitching staff that cost the Sox last year, not the offense.

[witesoxfan]

It depends on what your expectations are for this team. I think 77 wins is a reasonable expectation. I posted an article where Scott Boras gave a pretty good argument that team's should be at their historical high for payroll given that revenues are up 200% since 2000 and franchise values have skyrocketed. No reason to believe the Sox couldn't add $25M to their payroll with ease.

 

Teams ARE at their historical high for payroll. Not all contracts have been finalized, but I can gaurantee that payrolls across the majors will be up. In fact, I bet if you went back and looked at progressive payrolls across the majors, teams have spent more money every single year for the previous 10, 12, perhaps 25 years...something like that.

 

That is, of course, looking at it from a macro level, which, whether Boras meant it that way or not, is absolutely true. And since 2000, every team has increased their payroll. The Sox team payroll in 2000 was, give or take, $15 million.

 

Now, speaking from a micro level, do you think it would be wise for the New York Mets to continue to spend money and increase their payroll?

 

 

[Marty34]

How many teams are actually up 200% or anywhere close that number though? I'd be willing to guess that number is highly skewed by some major TV deals for a couple premier franchises.

 

Chairman Reinsdorf ownership group bought the team for roughly $20M. A conservative estimate (the Padres sold for $800M) from Forbes shows the Sox are worth $600M. According to Forbes over the last 10 years the Sox operating income is roughly $175M. They could easily afford an extra $25M in payroll.

[ptatc]

Chairman Reinsdorf ownership group bought the team for roughly $20M. A conservative estimate (the Padres sold for $800M) from Forbes shows the Sox are worth $600M. According to Forbes over the last 10 years the Sox operating income is roughly $175M. They could easily afford an extra $25M in payroll.

According to baseball cube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/stats.asp?Y=2000&T=7) the sox payroll in 2000 was 31.1 million. With the 200% increase you were referring to the payroll should be 93.3 million. I think the Sox have out performed what you should expect from those calculations.

[ptatc]

Chairman Reinsdorf ownership group bought the team for roughly $20M. A conservative estimate (the Padres sold for $800M) from Forbes shows the Sox are worth $600M. According to Forbes over the last 10 years the Sox operating income is roughly $175M. They could easily afford an extra $25M in payroll.

If the operating income is 175 million and you want to spend 125 on the MLB payroll, the rest of the organization will only get 50 million. So you don't want much for minor leagues and support staff, I assume. Where will future growth come from will minimal minor league production and minimal medical support.

[Balta1701]

If the operating income is 175 million and you want to spend 125 on the MLB payroll, the rest of the organization will only get 50 million. So you don't want much for minor leagues and support staff, I assume. Where will future growth come from will minimal minor league production and minimal medical support.

And, you know, actually opening the doors of the ballpark.

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree with you Balta, but the offense did play a role in our failures down the stretch. We went from one of the best teams with RISP to one of the worst.

 

Even if you say it was regression to the mean, it demonstrates the streakiness of our offense, which is a real problem for us. We tend to score runs in big clusters and then have extended stretches with minimal production. So while we were 7th in baseball in total runs, we're not scoring them in a very efficient manner. Also, when the offense goes cold for a long stretch, it puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff, which is never a good thing.

[Balta1701]

I agree with you Balta, but the offense did play a role in our failures down the stretch. We went from one of the best teams with RISP to one of the worst.

 

Even if you say it was regression to the mean, it demonstrates the streakiness of our offense, which is a real problem for us. We tend to score runs in big clusters and then have extended stretches with minimal production. So while we were 7th in baseball in total runs, we're not scoring them in a very efficient manner. Also, when the offense goes cold for a long stretch, it puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff, which is never a good thing.

And you know some of the big things that led to the end of the season failure? A lot of that was...having veterans get tired out or worn down. Which happened, in no small part, because Ventura never trusted his bench in the first place, and then the majority of it was traded away to fill in for injuries.

 

I will definitely say that it would be useful to see Hahn bring in another backup IF/utility man to strengthen the bench before this season starts. That would be an addition that would be bigger than the numbers, just if it gave Ventura more confidence in using his bench.

 

Having a guy like Flowers, who can work a count, and a contact guy like Keppinger, take over for the elder guys who did tire down the stretch...is also exactly what you're asking for.

[southsider2k5]

If the operating income is 175 million and you want to spend 125 on the MLB payroll, the rest of the organization will only get 50 million. So you don't want much for minor leagues and support staff, I assume. Where will future growth come from will minimal minor league production and minimal medical support.

 

Not to mention that the value of the team has NOTHING to do with how much money there is to spend. Having a million dollar house doesn't mean you have a million in cash to spend.

[Harry Chappas]

Not to mention that the value of the team has NOTHING to do with how much money there is to spend. Having a million dollar house doesn't mean you have a million in cash to spend.

NBA players do not agree with you.

 

[PorkChopExpress]

Once again...I'll repeat.

 

The White Sox scored the 4th most runs in the American league last year. They outscored the Tigers. They outscored every other team in the AL Central.

 

They did so with a .600 OPS out of their 3b slot. That's cumulative, over the full season...a .600 OPS. Counting Youkilis.

 

Getting >.700 OPS out of the 3b slot would be like Viciedo turning into an all star for what it would do to the offense.

 

Yes, we lost AJ and his .830 OPS. Flowers could do that, but if all he does is put up a low-.700 OPS, the Sox will, on paper, be exactly where they were last year in offense.

 

If they're expecting "Just enough offense", then they're expecting substantially worse seasons from Rios, Konerko, etc, with no improvement from Viciedo or Beckham to offset it. Because last year, the Sox had substantial offense.

 

It was the middle-of-the-pack pitching staff that cost the Sox last year, not the offense.

 

Come on now. That is not telling the whole story. The full season stats are skewed somewhat by a monstrous start to the season for a few of our key players. For instance, at the end of May, Konerko was hitting .381 with a 1.097 OPS, Dunn was at .230/.935, Viciedo was at .291/.827, Rios was at .283/.766 and AJ was at .299/.857.

 

By the break, Konerko had dropped to .329/.932, Dunn had dropped to .208/.859, Viciedo had dropped to .255/.738, Rios had risen to .318/.874 and AJ was holding at .285/.865.

 

By the end of August, Konerko fell even more to .308/.877, Dunn to .205/.820, Viciedo to .255/.714, Rios to .300/.842 and AJ continued to hold at .288/.868.

 

And by the end of the year the final numbers for Konerko were .298/.857, Dunn .204/.800, Viciedo .255/.744, Rios .304/.850 and AJ .278/.827.

 

The big starts for Konerko, Dunn and Viciedo will tend to make the overall numbers look a little better, but while I was watching last year, the offense was a problem, despite what the stats might tell you. Add to that that one of the consistencies last year was AJ, and now he is gone. Yes, Keppinger should do better than a .600 OPS, but flowers is a question mark. A potentially exciting question mark if he can approach his minor league numbers, but not something you bank on.

 

[witesoxfan]

Come on now. That is not telling the whole story. The full season stats are skewed somewhat by a monstrous start to the season for a few of our key players. For instance, at the end of May, Konerko was hitting .381 with a 1.097 OPS, Dunn was at .230/.935, Viciedo was at .291/.827, Rios was at .283/.766 and AJ was at .299/.857.

 

By the break, Konerko had dropped to .329/.932, Dunn had dropped to .208/.859, Viciedo had dropped to .255/.738, Rios had risen to .318/.874 and AJ was holding at .285/.865.

 

By the end of August, Konerko fell even more to .308/.877, Dunn to .205/.820, Viciedo to .255/.714, Rios to .300/.842 and AJ continued to hold at .288/.868.

 

And by the end of the year the final numbers for Konerko were .298/.857, Dunn .204/.800, Viciedo .255/.744, Rios .304/.850 and AJ .278/.827.

 

The big starts for Konerko, Dunn and Viciedo will tend to make the overall numbers look a little better, but while I was watching last year, the offense was a problem, despite what the stats might tell you. Add to that that one of the consistencies last year was AJ, and now he is gone. Yes, Keppinger should do better than a .600 OPS, but flowers is a question mark. A potentially exciting question mark if he can approach his minor league numbers, but not something you bank on.

 

So something they did during the season was why they ended the season as one of the best offenses in the AL.

 

I bet if you take out their worst months, they're even better too.

 

Come on, what do you think is closest to this team's true talent level - what they did when they were cold, what they did when they were hot, or the cumulative result of everything that happened over the duration of the season? I'm going to guess the latter.

[Marty34]

According to baseball cube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/stats.asp?Y=2000&T=7) the sox payroll in 2000 was 31.1 million. With the 200% increase you were referring to the payroll should be 93.3 million. I think the Sox have out performed what you should expect from those calculations.

 

Using Forbes numbers since 2003 Sox revenue is uo 101.8%, their payroll is up 102.9%, and their franchise value is up 157%. Moreover during this time the Sox have made $175M. When the value of the asset goes from $20M to $600M, more of that profit should be spent on payroll.

[witesoxfan]

What would spend an additional $25 million at this juncture?

[southsider2k5]

Using Forbes numbers since 2003 Sox revenue is uo 101.8%, their payroll is up 102.9%, and their franchise value is up 157%. Moreover during this time the Sox have made $175M. When the value of the asset goes from $20M to $600M, more of that profit should be spent on payroll.

 

And there you go.

[Dick Allen]

12 years ago today, Kenny Williams awoke from his coma and traded for David Wells.

[Marty34]

And there you go.

 

Where did that $175M profit go? Asset is up 2900% AND you need $175M profit?