2014 Youth Movement?

[Marty34]

Rebuild by getting other teams prospects and by getting the payroll down, not necessarily through the draft. Hopefully you can get something for Peavy and Rios at the trade deadline if the Sox aren't in it. It's a tough road, but so is sticking in the middle.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox can do it if Flowers and Viciedo become consistent offensive forces (meaning legit middle of the order hitters).

 

Ultimately, they might need to look at unloading Ramirez, Peavy, Floyd, Danks, Crain, Thornton, Rios and Dunn. Those are the obvious ones, and Sale will always be "you're damned if you trade him, damned if you don't" because of the ongoing injury concerns. KW lost out on both Jenks and Crede, but at least he didn't sign either of those guys long-term, either.

 

Sanchez, if he can emerge as a Keppinger-like player with an OPS of 700-750 at any of the infield positions...that would be a huge help. If Sanchez can play a legit SS, and reports are that he's capable, then it's a BIT easier to find 2B/3B.

 

All three of those infield positions are a challenge to fill offensively, at least compared to a decade ago, especially 3B. Offensively, Beckham was in the bottom decile/quintile all season long.

 

The perfect outfield arrangement would be Thompson in CF, DeAza in LF and Hawkins in RF, with Walker and Mitchell currently on the outside looking in.

Edited January 11, 2013 by caulfield12

[floridafan]

Isn't Flowers strike out percentage in the high 40's? I thought I saw that somewhere. I would think that fanning that often would be a problem, regardless of position. You can't even move a runner over without making contact.

 

What is it about 3rd that makes it so hard to fill? What kind of production would make you happy out of a 3rd baseman? Realistically?

Edited January 11, 2013 by floridafan

[knightni]

It'll probably be 2015 for full youth movement.

[caulfield12]

Isn't Flowers strike out percentage in the high 40's? I thought I saw that somewhere. I would think that fanning that often would be a problem, regardless of position. You can't even move a runner over without making contact.

 

What is it about 3rd that makes it so hard to fill? What kind of production would make you happy out of a 3rd baseman? Realistically?

 

10-15 years ago, during the steroid age, you could expect an 800+ OPS out of both 3B and SS (especially).

 

Now, 2B has become more of a power position than even 3B, which is a bit strange since you normally think of 3B as bigger/stronger, typically.

 

What you have to be happy with these days at 3B is anything above a 725 OPS. Morel's OPS was just atrocious, it's why the average for the entire season at that position for the year was around only 600, and Hudson didn't help matters, either.

 

Everyone would be elated at this point if Beckham could put up a 725 or even 750. Keppinger's right in the middle of that range, although his defense is suspect (not unlike Youk or Teahen or Viciedo).

 

I still wish we could go back for post 2008 and have figured out a way to keep Juan Uribe from eating himself out of the game....he seemed to be happiest in Chicago, although he lost his motivation a bit after 2005 (just my perception, maybe it's wrong).

Edited January 11, 2013 by caulfield12

[floridafan]

How many homers do they need to put up for you to feel that you are happy with your 3rd baseman?

 

It is odd how 2B has become a power position, but I still expect power out of 3rd. Is 20HR a substantive enough figure, with a BA of around .300?

[LittleHurt05]

How many homers do they need to put up for you to feel that you are happy with your 3rd baseman?

 

It is odd how 2B has become a power position, but I still expect power out of 3rd. Is 20HR a substantive enough figure, with a BA of around .300?

 

If you get 20 HR with a .300 average from your 3B, that's one of the top 5-7 3b in all of baseball.

[2nd_city_saint787]

 

If our guys pan out the future could be bright...just looking at what the sox already have I'm kinda excited....

 

 

C-Flowers

1B-Viciedo

2B-Sanchez

SS-Semien

3B-Grabe (Just putting him in there for his pops)

OF-Thompson

OF-Hawkins

OF-Mitchell/Walker

DH-Barnum (Perhaps a move to 3B?)

 

SP-Sale

SP-Santiago

SP-Johnson

SP-Quintana

SP-Snodgress/Molina/Castro/Rienzo/Beck/Other

 

 

 

I'm sure all of those guys won't be ready by 2015 and of course all of them won't pan out buttttt come 2015 they should have a ton of cash to fill in holes. Barnum moving to 3B could be a good way to put him on the fast track with the Sox projecting Tank as the 1B for the future. A 2015 big named LH free agent to DH would be nice to balance out that potential lineup. Looking ahead the Panda could be perfect in that role. Something like...

 

1. Mitchell/Walker LF

2. Sanchez 2B

3. Hawkins CF

4. Sandoval DH

5. Viciedo 1B

6. Thompson RF

7. Barnum 3B

8. Flowers C

9. Semien SS

 

...has the potential to be a young and exciting lineup.....Who says our farm sucks???

 

[caulfield12]

Sandoval, Semien and Grabe are huge reaches to even put in the major leagues as bench players at some future point.

 

Barnum has a lot of power potential, but it's more likely to be at 1B/DH or LF, in all likelihood.

 

Beck has as much of a chance to be a 3 starter as anyone currently in our system...and Johnson, who knows what we have with him, really?

 

All things considered, you're more likely to see Thompson in CF and Hawkins on a corner, probably RF.

 

Mitchell, Walker and DeAza are more prototypical LFer's, although DeAza did fine in CF (at least MLB average) the first 4-4 1/2 months or so, before losing some confidence, partly attributable to some of the injuries he was going through.

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

Sandoval, Semien and Grabe are huge reaches to even put in the major leagues as bench players at some future point.

 

Barnum has a lot of power potential, but it's more likely to be at 1B/DH or LF, in all likelihood.

 

Beck has as much of a chance to be a 3 starter as anyone currently in our system...and Johnson, who knows what we have with him, really?

 

All things considered, you're more likely to see Thompson in CF and Hawkins on a corner, probably RF.

 

Mitchell, Walker and DeAza are more prototypical LFer's, although DeAza did fine in CF (at least MLB average) the first 4-4 1/2 months or so, before losing some confidence, partly attributable to some of the injuries he was going through.

 

Pablo Sandoval doesn't fit with those other 2 guys. 2015 he's potentially a FA, and we'll have lots of $$. Grabe I put up there for his pops, and I don't mean power, I mean his dad, soxtalker floridafan. Semien put up pretty good numbers for a SS last year so why not. I'm talking about 2015 here, if I didn't mention it before.

 

Plus I was just talking about our current guys, trades are sure to be made if that's the direction they wanna go and of course they don't have to go that young.

 

Most importantly though, that was all for funsies as I try to fall asleep =p

Edited January 11, 2013 by 2nd_city_saint787

[YASNY]

10-15 years ago, during the steroid age, you could expect an 800+ OPS out of both 3B and SS (especially).

 

Now, 2B has become more of a power position than even 3B, which is a bit strange since you normally think of 3B as bigger/stronger, typically.

 

What you have to be happy with these days at 3B is anything above a 725 OPS. Morel's OPS was just atrocious, it's why the average for the entire season at that position for the year was around only 600, and Hudson didn't help matters, either.

 

Everyone would be elated at this point if Beckham could put up a 725 or even 750. Keppinger's right in the middle of that range, although his defense is suspect (not unlike Youk or Teahen or Viciedo).

 

I still wish we could go back for post 2008 and have figured out a way to keep Juan Uribe from eating himself out of the game....he seemed to be happiest in Chicago, although he lost his motivation a bit after 2005 (just my perception, maybe it's wrong).

 

It's ironic. Most of the time Uribe was with the Sox, it seemed like most of Soxtalk would rather castrate him than have him on the roster.

[Balta1701]

It's ironic. Most of the time Uribe was with the Sox, it seemed like most of Soxtalk would rather castrate him than have him on the roster.

Some of this is the change in the structure of the league since 2007. In 2007, a guy hitting in the low .200's with 20 HR and good defense was a major liability. Offense has stepped back so much since then that the same production has gone from being a serious weakness in the lineup to a tolerable guy.

[Dick Allen]

Some of this is the change in the structure of the league since 2007. In 2007, a guy hitting in the low .200's with 20 HR and good defense was a major liability. Offense has stepped back so much since then that the same production has gone from being a serious weakness in the lineup to a tolerable guy.

Most of it is a lot of people like the same or worse players on other teams. Watch if Josh Bell has a decent spring training. A lot of guys who have already told you Beckham is useless and will tell you if he hits .800 in spring training its meaningless, and think Viciedo may be useless, will be all gung ho about him.

[ZionrulZ]

Interesting articles...

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...rolls-and-wins/

 

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ll-all-related/

Edited January 11, 2013 by Lamar Johnson 23

[witesoxfan]

Interesting articles...

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...rolls-and-wins/

 

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...ll-all-related/

 

Top 10: $140 million, .525 Win%

Middle 10: $88 million, .511 Win%

Bottom 10: $66 million, .464 Win%

 

Excluding the bottom - you are talking about the likes of Kansas City, San Diego, and Houston as well as Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Baltimore - you are looking at approximately 83 wins for $88 mill (82.78 wins to be exact) or 85 wins for $140 mill (85.05). Typically, if you spend more money, you are going to win more games. But, unless you do it well, you are not going to win enough.

 

Rick Hahn is spending money well. Honestly, spending in the current market would be absolutely irrational and irresponsible. The only real upgrade that could be acquired in free agency would be in the bullpen, and at this point, you may as well wait that out. Trades are still possible, but only if it truly makes sense.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Excluding the bottom - you are talking about the likes of Kansas City, San Diego, and Houston as well as Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Baltimore - you are looking at approximately 83 wins for $88 mill (82.78 wins to be exact) or 85 wins for $140 mill (85.05). Typically, if you spend more money, you are going to win more games. But, unless you do it well, you are not going to win enough.

 

Rick Hahn is spending money well. Honestly, spending in the current market would be absolutely irrational and irresponsible. The only real upgrade that could be acquired in free agency would be in the bullpen, and at this point, you may as well wait that out. Trades are still possible, but only if it truly makes sense.

 

$60 million is the difference in two wins? Wow.

[witesoxfan]

$60 million is the difference in two wins? Wow.

I wouldn't say that so much as that spending wisely and developing players is far more important than building a team through free agency. These people who want the Sox to spend, spend, spend need to look at these two numbers and see that there isn't a big difference, and then they need to think about teams like the Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and Marlins and realize that spending a boatload - even on the best free agents, like the Marlins did - doesn't guarantee anything. The free agents the Sox would bring in would be far worse than that and would, if anything, help win 1 more game. Waiting the free agent game out is far more efficient.

 

There is virtually no difference between an $90 mill payroll and a $140 mill payroll, so why spend frivolously and use up money that can instead be allocated for later on down the road?

[caulfield12]

Some of this is the change in the structure of the league since 2007. In 2007, a guy hitting in the low .200's with 20 HR and good defense was a major liability. Offense has stepped back so much since then that the same production has gone from being a serious weakness in the lineup to a tolerable guy.

 

Except Uribe for most of his Sox career was a .240-.260ish hitter.

 

Like Crede, he consistently put up 20+ homers and 65-75 RBI's.

 

Great at getting the runner in from 3rd base with less than 2 outs.

 

Great defense.

 

Plus plus throwing arm, the best the Sox have had except for Jose Valentin on the infield.

 

Great clubhouse presence, one of the most popular teammates, bridged the gap between white, black and Hispanic players better than anyone in recent franchise memory....will always remember his smile, his love for the game and sense of humor, that's why everyone liked Buehrle and Ozzie Guillen (the player) so much, as well.

 

In 2004, will also remember the Juan-O-Meter, when he was hitting nearly .400 for the first 2+ months and had about 10 hits in that crazy game we somehow lost to the Expos thanks to Willie Harris, started by our junkballing short lefty who was projected to be Gio Gonzalez by some and who ended up more like Jerry Kutzler.

[balfanman]

Let me give me 2 cents on rebuilding. It can work, with the right executives in place. Just because you have a bunch of top 10 picks doesn't mean you will win a few years down the road. There are several players that the Sox have had a shot at in the draft, (Mike Trout for one) and passed that have turned out to become great young talents at the big league level. Some have been for a while. Some, but less than you might think star level talent or good players did the Sox not have a shot to draft or have a chance to sign from their homeland. The level of talent evaluation is HUGE when you talk about a rebuild. Do the Sox have that? I don't know. You have to have great scouts as well. I think that 2014 could be like '09 in some ways. How many top draft picks have been busts? Probably a lot. Didn't we have an ace that was drafted in the 36th or 38th round? The part that I don't get about when fans talk about a rebuild in any sport (besides the NBA) is that you have to be horrible. In any sports there are great players taken in the lower rounds all the time. The psychological factor of this sport is huge as you move up the rankings, and many guys who have great physical tools can't cut it in that realm. Scouting that is very difficult, and sometimes near impossible. The one problem I have with rebuilding is that we have a GM in charge who has never done it. If we have a phasing out of the vets after 2013 fine (which is what is likely to happen IMO) and then retool in 2014. Scouting in baseball for amateur players is difficult just because you don't know how they will respond to the advanced level of play both physically and psychologically. Plus players are playing against others that are older than them for the first time, and others that are just as talented if not more.

 

Realistically though, how many G.M's who have rebuilt teams SUCCESSFULLY are available to rebuild ours. It would require at least a little bit of luck with draft choices as you've mentioned the diffuculty of accurately scouting amatuer players and I would think that most everyone of them who has done it, it was their first time.

Edited January 14, 2013 by balfanman

[southsider2k5]

I wouldn't say that so much as that spending wisely and developing players is far more important than building a team through free agency. These people who want the Sox to spend, spend, spend need to look at these two numbers and see that there isn't a big difference, and then they need to think about teams like the Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and Marlins and realize that spending a boatload - even on the best free agents, like the Marlins did - doesn't guarantee anything. The free agents the Sox would bring in would be far worse than that and would, if anything, help win 1 more game. Waiting the free agent game out is far more efficient.

 

There is virtually no difference between an $90 mill payroll and a $140 mill payroll, so why spend frivolously and use up money that can instead be allocated for later on down the road?

 

I think you can't mention teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Marlins, and Mets enough in these discussions. You have to be smart spenders, not just spenders. What the Sox really needed this winter was ridiculously expensive, so instead of making a stupid mistake, they signed a guy that can be a super-utility guy, even if a better player comes up at 3B (minors, free agent, or trade) in the near future.

[southsider2k5]

Realistically though, how many G.M's who have rebuilt teams SUCCESSFULLY are available to rebuild ours. It would require at least a little bit of luck with draft choices as you've mentioned the diffuculty of accurately scouting amatuer players and I would think that most everyone of them who has done it, it was their first time.

 

There are very few examples of being successful in a full rebuild anyway. Most franchises just enter a cycle of repeated rebuilds and decimate their fan base.

[balfanman]

There are very few examples of being successful in a full rebuild anyway. Most franchises just enter a cycle of repeated rebuilds and decimate their fan base.

 

Yeah, that's what I thought. That's why when people make comments that something can't be done because they're just getting started in their position, in this case G.M., and they've never done it before strike me as being silly. It's like saying that Robin Ventura can't win a world series as a manager because he's never done it before.

[Marty34]

There are very few examples of being successful in a full rebuild anyway. Most franchises just enter a cycle of repeated rebuilds and decimate their fan base.

 

You decimate a fan base by repeatedly not making the postseason whether in a rebuild or by "going for it".

[southsider2k5]

You decimate a fan base by repeatedly not making the postseason whether in a rebuild or by "going for it".

 

History shows two completely different results, or do you have some proof this time?

[Marty34]

History shows two completely different results, or do you have some proof this time?

 

The White Sox are my proof.