Tough for Chicago to prove last season's surprising run wasn't

[BaseballNick]

Link

 

2012 record: 85-77

Finish: Second place, AL Central

2012 final payroll: $101.8 million


Estimated 2013 opening day payroll: $119 million

Yahoo! Sports offseason rank: 18th

Hashtags: #santajerry #danksyouverylittle #backloadedcontracthell #teachyourkidtoplaythird #mediocreville #greatsale #paulieballnuts #sinequanon #peaceoutaj #300obpprettyplease

 

OFFSEASON ACTION

On opening day last season, the White Sox carried a payroll of $96.9 million. Today they stand more than $20 million higher, and all they have to show for it is a 32-year-old who has gotten full-time at-bats once in his career, will man a position he has spent less than a quarter of his career playing and got a three-year contract nonetheless. Oh, and a reliever who throws hard.

Other than that, the White Sox's offseason has been dandy, thanks very much.

 

This is what Backloaded Contract Hell looks like, and with Jerry Reinsdorf pulling the budget reins like he's Santa and Rudolph is getting a little frisky, the White Sox are staring at a potential transition year. Already gone are one stalwart (catcher A.J. Pierzynski, to the Rangers) and three midseason acquisitions, Kevin Youkilis (New York), Brett Myers (Cleveland) and Francisco Liriano (Pittsburgh, ostensibly). Now comes the part where the White Sox have to win with even lesser personnel than the group that blew a playoff spot in 2012.

 

The not-really-a-third-baseman who had 418 plate appearances last season and is guaranteed $12 million over the next three years is Jeff Keppinger, whom Joe Maddon used in Tampa Bay last season to platoon perfection (.376/.402/.521 against lefties) but is neither good enough against right-handers nor in the field to merit a multiyear deal with a starting job. The third-base market thinned quickly, and with the Yankees chirping about a two-year deal, Keppinger played free agency to perfection.

 

Because the money isn't enormous, new general manager Rick Hahn – elevated to the position when Kenny Williams ascended to team president – won't necessarily regret if Keppinger spits the bit. Nor will he care if the signing of Matt Lindstrom, erratic fireballer, turns conflagrant for its one season.

 

The last time the White Sox devoted significant money – well, it has a chance to be one of the worst contracts out there. And they've got some other whoppers that, in hindsight, probably were ill-advised. Which is what made the White Sox winning at the clip they did last season so shocking.

And which makes any expectations on this season so misguided.

 

REALITY CHECK

So, where to start? Should it be with the guys who don't get on base, which is pretty much the whole team, or just the guys who play every day? Or should it be with the pitchers whose ERAs didn't exactly match their peripherals and thus are looking at serious regressions this year? Actually, perhaps it's best to save those gems for later and go with the pitcher responsible for the majority of the payroll hike this year, that aforementioned significant money.

 

For the first season of his five-year, $65 million deal, left-hander John Danks earned $2 million. This year, and for the next four, that annual figure jumps to $15.75 million. For that, the White Sox get a pitcher coming off shoulder surgery that limited him to about 50 innings last year and is expected to keep him out a portion of this year. Just 28, Danks has time to recover. It's just going to cost a lot, and even with advances in surgical technique, the return from shoulder work remains a crapshoot.

 

Chris Sale and Jake Peavy were excellent atop last year's rotation, though because of Sale's perceived fragility and Peavy's injury history, health always will be a question with them. Beyond them, there is the underachieving Gavin Floyd and a pair of effective rookies from last season, Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago, the former of whom doesn't strike out nearly enough hitters and the latter of whom walks far too many to repeat their performances.

 

And then there is the White Sox's lineup. If Alex Rios shows up again – it's really a year-by-year proposition at this point – and Adam Dunn tries to balance out his 200 strikeouts with 40 home runs, that helps. And if the White Sox's up-the-middle infield trio of catcher Tyler Flowers, shortstop Alexei Ramirez and second baseman Gordon Beckham can at least try to get their on-base percentages above .300 … well, they might get a round of applause from the bench. Because all eight White Sox bench players with at least 50 plate appearances last season couldn't muster a .300 OBP.

 

The 2012 season for the White Sox was as much about overachieving as it was succeeding. It did nothing to solve their failure at developing position prospects of any consequence (their only homegrown players are Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo, two Cuban refugees, and Beckham, a bust) and only served to put Chicago in that desperate no-man's land of mediocrity, where it's good enough to keep alive flickers of competitiveness but ultimately not a playoff team. If you're not going to be good, it pays to be really bad. In between shouldn't cost almost $120 million.

 

SAVIOR

The Paul Konerko of 2008 – the one who looked like he didn't have a good at-bat left in him – resurfaced in the second half of last season. Before the All-Star break: .329/.404/.528. After: .263/.333/.437. Respectable, of course. Just not Paulie. Even at 37 this spring, Konerko is the White Sox's sine qua non. If they want a chance at parlaying Robin Ventura's second year into an even greater success than the first, it starts with first-half Konerko. If second-half Konerko shows up, the White Sox could be in even more trouble than we imagine.

 

HAIKU

Now that the White Sox

No longer play with A.J.

They can hate him, too

[iamshack]

Hard to argue, perhaps except for the line about backloaded contract hell.

[LittleHurt05]

You forgot the best part!

 

[Marty34]

Passan is making a strong case for an 85-90 loss team. Hard to argue against.

[witesoxfan]

Passan is making a strong case for an 85-90 loss team. Hard to argue against.

 

In your opinion

[Marty34]

In your opinion

 

I wrote it, so I guess it would be my opinion.

[witesoxfan]

I wrote it, so I guess it would be my opinion.

 

You write it as if it is fact. It wears on people.

 

---

 

All I see is that Passan is advacting to be weary of regression. 85-90 losses is far more than regression. He brings up good points, but it's just as likely that this team wins 85 games again, in my mind, than it is that they lose 81-83, and it's far likelier that they win 85-90 than they lose 85-90.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Hard to argue, perhaps except for the line about backloaded contract hell.

There is really only one problematic backloaded contract anywhere on their books. Also, he's about $20M too high on payroll (no idea where he gets the $119M number, because it looks like complete fantasy), he seems to think that Rios and Dunn doing well only "help" (LOL), rails on the Keppinge acquisition while failing to acknowledge that almost ANYTHING is an upgrade to what the Sox had there already, and seems to think the team overachieved (never mind their pythag says otherwise, and that only a couple hitters and 1 SP overachieved).

 

Other than that, yeah, great article.

 

Some of his points make a lot of sense of course, sarcasm aside. Paulie is on the wrong side of the curve and may not bounce back, Rios is unlikely to repeat his 2012, Flowers won't likely get anywhere close to AJ's 2012 numbers (then again, neither will AJ), Quintana is a regression concern and Sale and Peavy are injury concerns. All true.

 

[hogan873]

Same guy predicted a last place finish for the Sox last year.

 

However, he makes a few good points. The backloaded contract hell comment doesn't really make sense, though.

 

If Rios has a decent year, Dunn hits 40+ HRs again, and Konerko is better after the surgery, the Sox have a chance to compete within the division. The pitching looks pretty good right now, especially if Danks returns to form.

[Balta1701]

There is really only one problematic backloaded contract anywhere on their books. Also, he's about $20M too high on payroll (no idea where he gets the $119M number, because it looks like complete fantasy), he seems to think that Rios and Dunn doing well only "help" (LOL), rails on the Keppinge acquisition while failing to acknowledge that almost ANYTHING is an upgrade to what the Sox had there already, and seems to think the team overachieved (never mind their pythag says otherwise, and that only a couple hitters and 1 SP overachieved).

 

Other than that, yeah, great article.

 

Some of his points make a lot of sense of course, sarcasm aside. Paulie is on the wrong side of the curve and may not bounce back, Rios is unlikely to repeat his 2012, Flowers won't likely get anywhere close to AJ's 2012 numbers (then again, neither will AJ), Quintana is a regression concern and Sale and Peavy are injury concerns. All true.

 

Actually, after reading that I thought it was wrong too, then I checked the Baseball-Reference numbers. They have us, right now, at $110 million committed for this year, with arbitration guys bringing that up to $116 million (I don't think they had Beckham's number in there yet). Add in Lindstrom, and yeah, $118 million is pretty close to where they have us.

 

[hogan873]

There is really only one problematic backloaded contract anywhere on their books. Also, he's about $20M too high on payroll (no idea where he gets the $119M number, because it looks like complete fantasy), he seems to think that Rios and Dunn doing well only "help" (LOL), rails on the Keppinge acquisition while failing to acknowledge that almost ANYTHING is an upgrade to what the Sox had there already, and seems to think the team overachieved (never mind their pythag says otherwise, and that only a couple hitters and 1 SP overachieved).

 

Other than that, yeah, great article.

 

Some of his points make a lot of sense of course, sarcasm aside. Paulie is on the wrong side of the curve and may not bounce back, Rios is unlikely to repeat his 2012, Flowers won't likely get anywhere close to AJ's 2012 numbers (then again, neither will AJ), Quintana is a regression concern and Sale and Peavy are injury concerns. All true.

Yeah, I was confused by that, too. I thought the payroll stood at about $100 million right now.

[Balta1701]

Here's the B-R link. They have Beckham and De Aza in there but not Lindstrom, and they have us at $116 million.

[witesoxfan]

I have them around $110 mill.

 

Dunn - $15 mill

Peavy - $14.5 mill

Danks - $14.25 mill

Rios - $12.5 mill

Floyd - $9.5 mill

Ramirez - $7 mill

Konerko - $6 mill

Thornton - $5.5 mill

Crain - $4.5 mill

Keppinger - $3.5 mill

Lindstrom - $3 mill

Beckham - $2.975 mill

Viciedo - $2.5 mill

De Aza - $2.075 mill

DeWayne Wise - $700k

= $103.5 for 15 arb+ players

 

+$5 mill for 10 pre-arb players

 

= $108.5 mill

 

+additional money for miscellaneous additions throughout the year

 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Actually, after reading that I thought it was wrong too, then I checked the Baseball-Reference numbers. They have us, right now, at $110 million committed for this year, with arbitration guys bringing that up to $116 million (I don't think they had Beckham's number in there yet). Add in Lindstrom, and yeah, $118 million is pretty close to where they have us.

I don't see that being the case, I think B-R is wrong here. Let's do the math, and then people can tell me if I am missing something...

 

COMMITTED 2013:

Dunn: $15M

Peavy: $14.5M

Danks: $14.25M (Passan was wrong here too, from what I can tell)

PK14: $13.5M

Rios: $12.5M

Floyd: $9.5M

Alexei: $7M

Thornton: $5.5M

Crain: $4.5M

Keppinger: $3.5M

Beckham: $2.975M

De Aza: $2.075M

Wise: $0.7M

Sale: $0.5M

A Sanchez: $0.5M

Flowers: $0.5M

Jones: $0.5M

Reed: $0.5M

Axelrod OR Santiago: $0.5M

Veal: $0.5M

Gimenez: $0.5M

Quintana: $0.5M

Viciedo: $0.5M

 

That totals to $109.45M. So he's actuall off $10M, not $20M. I exaggerated apparently.

 

Of course after he wrote that, the Sox acquired Lindstrom, so it goes up a few million. But that doesn't matter to what he wrote.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

I don't see that being the case, I think B-R is wrong here. Let's do the math, and then people can tell me if I am missing something...

 

COMMITTED 2013:

Dunn: $15M

Peavy: $14.5M

Danks: $14.25M (Passan was wrong here too, from what I can tell)

PK14: $13.5M

Rios: $12.5M

Floyd: $9.5M

Alexei: $7M

Thornton: $5.5M

Crain: $4.5M

Keppinger: $3.5M

Beckham: $2.975M

De Aza: $2.075M

Wise: $0.7M

Sale: $0.5M

A Sanchez: $0.5M

Flowers: $0.5M

Jones: $0.5M

Reed: $0.5M

Axelrod OR Santiago: $0.5M

Veal: $0.5M

Gimenez: $0.5M

Quintana: $0.5M

Viciedo: $0.5M

 

That totals to $109.45M. So he's actuall off $10M, not $20M. I exaggerated apparently.

 

Of course after he wrote that, the Sox acquired Lindstrom, so it goes up a few million. But that doesn't matter to what he wrote.

 

PK not making 13.5 this year. I believe 6 with 1 million per for the next 7 years.

[witesoxfan]

I missed the $500K, but $7 mill of Konerko's salary this year is deferred from 2014-2020 in $1 mill yearly installments

[NorthSideSox72]

I missed the $500K, but $7 mill of Konerko's salary this year is deferred from 2014-2020 in $1 mill yearly installments

OK, so take that down to more like $103M then. Not $119M. Cot's has him at a $13.5M for this year, then the $6M starting after, but maybe there is a misunderstanding there. So at the time Passan wrote the article, Sox had anywhere from $102M to $109M committed.

 

[witesoxfan]

OK, so take that down to more like $103M then. Not $119M. Cot's has him at a $13.5M for this year, then the $6M starting after, but maybe there is a misunderstanding there. So at the time Passan wrote the article, Sox had anywhere from $102M to $109M committed.

 

If nothing else, what these articles show is a general feeling of a team but not a completely accurate portrayal of a team. I don't fault him, and still believe Passan to be the best current writer in the game, but it's difficult to have a strong pulse on all 30 teams, especially one as reserved as the White Sox are.

[Eminor3rd]

I wrote it, so I guess it would be my opinion.

 

Passan has described our worst case scenario, which is indeed plausible. However, it is definitely not the most likely outcome. This team COULD be a 90 loss team, but you can't look at it, look at the competition, and not feel like it's much more likely a .500 team. Yes, we need everything to go right to end up with 90 wins, but we'd need everything to go wrong to end up with 90 losses. Neither is very likely.

[Greg Hibbard]

This team will do what 80% of our teams going back to 1999 have done, they will win between 79 and 87 games. They are set up to be competitive and to have a less than 50% chance of winning this division.

 

I am sincerely hoping that once we shake loose of these huge contracts in the next 2-3 year, the general White Sox strategy of ensuring that the team is "competitive" and "has the opportunity to win the division" every year (at the expense of bottoming out) gets revised.

 

White Sox fans aren't interested in a competitive team anymore, and if 2012 taught us anything, it's that being in first place even most of the year isn't going to put asses in seats unless the team wins the division.

 

Pre-05, the 80+ win strategy ensured interest and some fans coming to games. Moving forward, it will be better to completely scrap heap the team every few years. The floor of ticket sales and budget is easier to deal with than the ceiling. There apparently is nothing to be done to raise that ceiling these days, especially considering live baseball is a particularly good entertainment value anymore at the price points it has swelled to, given the HD home entertainment alternatives. That's a whole 'nother thread and conversation.

[witesoxfan]

This team will do what 80% of our teams going back to 1999 have done, they will win between 79 and 87 games. They are set up to be competitive and to have a less than 50% chance of winning this division.

 

I am sincerely hoping that once we shake loose of these huge contracts in the next 2-3 year, the general White Sox strategy of ensuring that the team is "competitive" and "has the opportunity to win the division" every year (at the expense of bottoming out) gets revised.

 

White Sox fans aren't interested in a competitive team anymore, and if 2012 taught us anything, it's that being in first place even most of the year isn't going to put asses in seats unless the team wins the division.

 

Pre-05, the 80+ win strategy ensured interest and some fans coming to games. Moving forward, it will be better to completely scrap heap the team every few years. The floor of ticket sales and budget is easier to deal with than the ceiling. There apparently is nothing to be done to raise that ceiling these days, especially considering live baseball is a particularly good entertainment value anymore at the price points it has swelled to, given the HD home entertainment alternatives. That's a whole 'nother thread and conversation.

 

If you are to believe attendance, not even a playoff birth prevents a decrease in attendance.

 

2006 - 2.95 mill

2007 - 2.68 mill

2008 - 2.5 mill

2009 - 2.28 mill

 

That means, in a matter of 4 years, the Sox pretty consistently lost between 180,000-300,000 fans per season over the course of 4 years. During those 4 years, they went from a 90 win team, to a 90 loss team, to a tie-breaker and division winner, to a mediocre jumbled mess.

 

The ony thing to be a proven cure-all is a World Series championship. My best guess would lead me to believe that an extended playoff run and/or multiple playoff births would do it as well.

[Eminor3rd]

If you are to believe attendance, not even a playoff birth prevents a decrease in attendance.

 

2006 - 2.95 mill

2007 - 2.68 mill

2008 - 2.5 mill

2009 - 2.28 mill

 

That means, in a matter of 4 years, the Sox pretty consistently lost between 180,000-300,000 fans per season over the course of 4 years. During those 4 years, they went from a 90 win team, to a 90 loss team, to a tie-breaker and division winner, to a mediocre jumbled mess.

 

The ony thing to be a proven cure-all is a World Series championship. My best guess would lead me to believe that an extended playoff run and/or multiple playoff births would do it as well.

 

Yeah, the answer is probably that the attendance issue can't be solved in one year. The bottom line is that the fans have to believe in the team, and the Sox have flirted with success a couple times, but it has so often felt like a failed charge and a fluke -- or at the very least, it's never felt good going into next year.

 

Two or three consecutive playoff appearance would cure that. Whether consciously or not, I'd feel a lot better about my team going into the year if they'd been in the playoffs a few years in a row.

[Vance Law]

Link

Jeff Keppinger, whom Joe Maddon used in Tampa Bay last season to platoon perfection (.376/.402/.521 against lefties) but is neither good enough against right-handers

 

Keppinger hit .302 against righties last year and .285 over the last three years. He also hit against righties more than twice as often as lefties. The "can't hit righties" comment makes no sense, nor does the notion that he was platooned.

 

[Cali]

I still wish they'd have traded Danks instead of resigned him last offseason. They'd have a little more payroll flexibility now if he was traded for prospects...

[Balta1701]

I still wish they'd have traded Danks instead of resigned him last offseason. They'd have a little more payroll flexibility now if he was traded for prospects...

The fact that he was resigned ought to tell you a lot about the quality of "prospects" that were being offered for him.