2013-2014 NFL Thread

[RockRaines]

A ton? Come on. I don't think the offense can get much better than it is right now. They're the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. They have weapons all over the field. I think at best Cutler can be as good as McCown these last 7 games. Maybe slightly better, but at what point is that just a waste of resources?

 

The offense can be the best in the league. Cutler could become the next Manning. If the defense still sucks, it's all for naught.

You said how much better can Cutler get, and I think he can improve a ton over his career numbers in Chicago a TON. He's a safer bet with a higher ceiling. Those two combined is a no brainer to keep.

[StrangeSox]

A ton? Come on. I don't think the offense can get much better than it is right now. They're the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. They have weapons all over the field. I think at best Cutler can be as good as McCown these last 7 games. Maybe slightly better, but at what point is that just a waste of resources?

 

The offense can be the best in the league. Cutler could become the next Manning. If the defense still sucks, it's all for naught.

They put up 20 points against the Vikings.

 

What about the modern NFL says it's a good idea to handicap your offense to go after defensive FA's?

[Jenksismyhero]

Substantially. McCown has been putting up a ton of yards, but outside of last night, they've struggled to score points and have lost games because of it. McCown simply cannot make some of the throws that Cutler can, whether it's a deep pass or a pass that needs to be on a rope.

 

And let's not pretend the McCown has been mistake-free, either. There were two easy, easy picks last night that the Cowboys dropped.

 

I'm not suggesting that McCown is a pro bowler or that we should expect that next year. I'm saying that I see a slight upgrade from Cutler to McCown in this system and with all of these weapons. It makes little sense to spend an extra 12-14 million a year on Cutler for that slight upgrade when the defense is so awful.

 

[StrangeSox]

Not arguing we let Cutler walk, but McCown's passes are accurate and he makes good decisions. He's also pretty darn athletic. Yes, he's 34, but he doesn't have the mileage on him that a normal 34 year old NFL qb has. It doesn't look like a fluke to me at all.

 

he had two really dumb throws yesterday that was just luck/painfully cold that they were dropped.

[Jenksismyhero]

And I think Cutler is a 100+ QB rating guy with Trestman and this line.

 

Ok great, we have the same QB but 12-14 million less money to spend on the defense that needs to replace approximately 50% of the starters.

[DukeNukeEm]

Spending a first round pick on a QB doesnt help the defense.

[Jenksismyhero]

he had two really dumb throws yesterday that was just luck/painfully cold that they were dropped.

 

75% completion percentage isn't good enough?

[BigSqwert]

If the Bears could have picked up a yard on two tries last week, they'd be sitting on 8-5 and on top of their division right now even with their horrible defense.

 

They could have easily lost a couple more games earlier in the season when Cutler was starting. They had a couple of nail-biter, come from behind victories with him under center.

[StrangeSox]

I'm not suggesting that McCown is a pro bowler or that we should expect that next year. I'm saying that I see a slight upgrade from Cutler to McCown in this system and with all of these weapons. It makes little sense to spend an extra 12-14 million a year on Cutler for that slight upgrade when the defense is so awful.

I don't agree that it's only a "slight" upgrade.

 

It makes even less sense in the NFL in 2013 or 2014 to let a franchise QB walk, replacing him with a 35 year old journeyman who's had a good half-season. The risk you're taking there is huge.

[Jenksismyhero]

What part of the modern NFL screams "dump your QB for an old journeyman/rookie crapshoot to marginally improve your defense"? If the Bears could have picked up a yard on two tries last week, they'd be sitting on 8-5 and on top of their division right now even with their horrible defense. Why would you want to knee-cap your offense when you finally have great WRs, a good RB and a serviceable-and-improving line?

 

I honestly don't know, is there some great free agent class coming next year on the defensive side of the ball.

 

It's been 7 games. This isn't a crapshoot.

[RockRaines]

Ok great, we have the same QB but 12-14 million less money to spend on the defense that needs to replace approximately 50% of the starters.

We have a QB who is a safer bet with a higher upside and possibly one of the best offensive teams in the league while developing/drafting defensive players. Are you under the impression we are buying defensive fill ins in the offseason? I see that a a huge gamble and waste of money.

[StrangeSox]

They could have easily lost a couple more games earlier in the season when Cutler was starting. They had a couple of nail-biter, come from behind victories with him under center.

 

Ok? But they won those games, and we're talking about whether McCown is 'smarter' with the ball, because that's one of his big selling points. Yeah, he's limited the turnovers pretty well, but you can't overlook things like his bad, should-have-been-picked throws last night. Obviously Cutler has those as well, but McCown's gotten lucky a few times on bad throws. His numbers wouldn't look as hot without that.

[RockRaines]

They could have easily lost a couple more games earlier in the season when Cutler was starting. They had a couple of nail-biter, come from behind victories with him under center.

Cutler in his first go round in this offense had some really really good games. I want to see him with this offense in year 2, badly.

[StrangeSox]

It's been 7 games. This isn't a crapshoot.

 

Seven games is a very small sample. It's a complete crapshoot to believe that McCown will continue to put up 100+ QB ratings for the rest of this season and then into next year.

 

[iamshack]

he had two really dumb throws yesterday that was just luck/painfully cold that they were dropped.

That happens. Jay does this every week too, basically.

[RockRaines]

Ok? But they won those games, and we're talking about whether McCown is 'smarter' with the ball, because that's one of his big selling points. Yeah, he's limited the turnovers pretty well, but you can't overlook things like his bad, should-have-been-picked throws last night. Obviously Cutler has those as well, but McCown's gotten lucky a few times on bad throws. His numbers wouldn't look as hot without that.

We need to temper enthusiasm about the results last night, the Cowboys defense is worse than ours.

[Jenksismyhero]

I don't agree that it's only a "slight" upgrade.

 

It makes even less sense in the NFL in 2013 or 2014 to let a franchise QB walk, replacing him with a 35 year old journeyman who's had a good half-season. The risk you're taking there is huge.

 

So McCown can't go from journeyman 77 QB rating guy to 109 qb rating guy, but Cutler is going to go from an 85 qb rating to something significantly higher than 110?

 

The risk isn't that huge at all. Let's pretend that Cutler is everything you think he'll be. He's up there with Rogers/Manning/Brees. He's putting up numbers. They're averaging more than nearly 30 points a game (a pipe dream). And yet their defense is STILL going to be terrible because you've handcuffed the GM's ability to sign more guys. And you're still placing all of your chips on a guy who hasn't been able to finish 3 of the 5 seasons he's been here.

[Soxbadger]

Do you think Josh McCown is a 100+QB rating type of guy or is he the 77 he's shown in his career?

 

 

And I think Cutler is a 100+ QB rating guy with Trestman and this line.

 

Honestly I think that under Trestman McCown and Cutler likely put up similar Qb ratings.

 

I cant fathom any scenario where Cutler puts up 2x better stats than McCown, which is what would be necessary to justify a salary 5x greater than McCowns.

[RockRaines]

Seven games is a very small sample. It's a complete crapshoot to believe that McCown will continue to put up 100+ QB ratings for the rest of this season and then into next year.

Statistically speaking its almost guaranteed he returns to the mean. This is a guy that was so bad at QB that detroit made him a WR. I think our offensive staff and our weapons have made him flourish, but its a MUCH safer bet to think Cutler will be more consistently good with a higher ceiling.

[StrangeSox]

Cutler in his first go round in this offense had some really really good games. I want to see him with this offense in year 2, badly.

Yeah, that remains a very important part of the equation. We're looking at how Cutler and the offense performed in the first few weeks with a brand new system versus how McCown has performed as the rest of the offensive unit learns that system more and more.

 

There are a lot of throws that Cutler can make and McCown can't. That's basic, objective fact. I really find it hard to believe that anyone truly thinks this offense isn't better with an objectively better QB who is a real threat deep.

[iamshack]

They put up 20 points against the Vikings.

 

What about the modern NFL says it's a good idea to handicap your offense to go after defensive FA's?

The part where the rules favor offenses and we have outstanding weapons in place. That essentially means we can get away with a bit lesser-skilled qb than in the past.

[Jenksismyhero]

We have a QB who is a safer bet with a higher upside and possibly one of the best offensive teams in the league while developing/drafting defensive players. Are you under the impression we are buying defensive fill ins in the offseason? I see that a a huge gamble and waste of money.

 

I agree he's the safer bet and I agree he's a much better QB. I just don't think the 12-14 million he's going to cost is going to get you THAT much more, especially if you don't take care of the defense.

 

IMO they'll need one if not two safeties, at least one linebacker, and at least two if not three defensive lineman. Even if you strike gold and get two draft picks that can start and fill those needs, you'll still need to sign guys. And that's not even counting back ups for depth.

[RockRaines]

Honestly I think that under Trestman McCown and Cutler likely put up similar Qb ratings.

 

I cant fathom any scenario where Cutler puts up 2x better stats than McCown, which is what would be necessary to justify a salary 5x greater than McCowns.

Its less risky to pay Cutler since his average is better and his ceiling is higher. Its a no brainer IMO.

[StrangeSox]

That happens. Jay does this every week too, basically.

Yes, every QB has those. But if we're going to talk about how much smarter with the ball McCown is, we need to look at the decisions he's making with it. Whether or not the DB catches the ball that's thrown right at him doesn't tell us whether the QB made a good decision to throw it there.

[GoSox05]

McCown has only faced one defense ranked higher than 21st. That was the Ravens in the rain and mud.