2013-2014 NFL Thread

[Jenksismyhero]

Seven games is a very small sample. It's a complete crapshoot to believe that McCown will continue to put up 100+ QB ratings for the rest of this season and then into next year.

 

Oh I agree. But I think he's a mid 90's guy and Cutler is maybe around 100. As SB just said, that upgrade is not worth the cost.

 

Now, having argued all this, if they can sign Cutler to a long term deal at a discount and backload some of the cap stuff then I'd be fine with that.

[Jake]

It is hard to reconcile the fact that I don't believe Cutler has ever had a 6 game run like this -- certainly nothing even close while he's been a Bear.

[RockRaines]

I agree he's the safer bet and I agree he's a much better QB. I just don't think the 12-14 million he's going to cost is going to get you THAT much more, especially if you don't take care of the defense.

 

IMO they'll need one if not two safeties, at least one linebacker, and at least two if not three defensive lineman. Even if you strike gold and get two draft picks that can start and fill those needs, you'll still need to sign guys. And that's not even counting back ups for depth.

I think its a safe bet the Bears arent going out and buying themselves defensive fill ins. You have a young MLB and OLB with Briggs filling in and that core is about done. Im betting Major Wright is still the starting safety and you arent buying DT's in the offseason. Draft 1-3 players that can contribute, and you are about where I expect the Bears to be.

[RockRaines]

It is hard to reconcile the fact that I don't believe Cutler has ever had a 6 game run like this -- certainly nothing even close while he's been a Bear.

Either has McCown.

[Jake]

Either has McCown.

 

Except...right now.

 

It isn't so much that McCown is Jesus Christ incarnate, it's that he has exposed the possibility that what we are getting from Jay Cutler is not worth this much money and drama

 

[iamshack]

Yes, every QB has those. But if we're going to talk about how much smarter with the ball McCown is, we need to look at the decisions he's making with it. Whether or not the DB catches the ball that's thrown right at him doesn't tell us whether the QB made a good decision to throw it there.

I wasn't talking about him relative to Cutler. I was talking about him relative to being a fluke.

[StrangeSox]

So McCown can't go from journeyman 77 QB rating guy to 109 qb rating guy, but Cutler is going to go from an 85 qb rating to something significantly higher than 110?

 

The risk isn't that huge at all.

 

Yes, the risk of dumping a franchise QB in favor of a journeyman having a good half season and betting he'll put up similar numbers next year is huge. I don't think McCown's 109 is sustainable, especially as the league gets more footage on him and Trestman's system. If you actually think McCown would continue to put up 100+ QB ratings through another full year, you're delusional.

 

 

Let's pretend that Cutler is everything you think he'll be. He's up there with Rogers/Manning/Brees. He's putting up numbers. They're averaging more than nearly 30 points a game (a pipe dream). And yet their defense is STILL going to be terrible because you've handcuffed the GM's ability to sign more guys. And you're still placing all of your chips on a guy who hasn't been able to finish 3 of the 5 seasons he's been here.

 

I don't think Cutler is a Top-3 or Top-4 QB, so don't pretend anyone is comparing him to Rodgers or Manning or Brees.

 

I do think he's substantially better than a career journeyman who was coaching HS football fairly recently.

 

What are the defensive FA's you think the Bears should be spending money on, anyway? Will the defense be substantially better? Will it be better enough to matter in the NFL in 2014, which is a hugely passing offense-oriented game?

 

[Jenksismyhero]

Yeah, that remains a very important part of the equation. We're looking at how Cutler and the offense performed in the first few weeks with a brand new system versus how McCown has performed as the rest of the offensive unit learns that system more and more.

 

There are a lot of throws that Cutler can make and McCown can't. That's basic, objective fact. I really find it hard to believe that anyone truly thinks this offense isn't better with an objectively better QB who is a real threat deep.

 

This system isn't designed for the deep ball, so that skill is nice but unnecessary.

 

Also, why does it matter that Cutler hasn't had time to adjust to the system (not really true btw, he had the offseason, preseason, and 7-8 games with starter reps) when McCown didn't either? McCown literally came into two games this year without any practice and performed immensely better than Cutler. And it had nothing to do with his physical abilities.

[StrangeSox]

I wasn't talking about him relative to Cutler. I was talking about him relative to being a fluke.

McCown being smarter with the ball keeps being a big selling point for him, so we should actually look at the decisions he's making, not just the outcomes. Yesterday, he made two really dumb decisions (or bad throws) that thankfully were dropped, but they were still not smart plays on his part. Let's see some evidence that McCown really is smarter with the ball, and that the difference is big enough to make up for the clearly inferior physical talents.

[Soxbadger]

Statistically speaking its almost guaranteed he returns to the mean. This is a guy that was so bad at QB that detroit made him a WR. I think our offensive staff and our weapons have made him flourish, but its a MUCH safer bet to think Cutler will be more consistently good with a higher ceiling.

 

It doesnt matter what other teams do.

 

People are wrong and sometimes systems matter. The second McCown came in weeks ago, you could see that there was a different vibe with the Bears offense. It was crisper, plays were being called smoother and audibles were much better.

 

Did you know that McCowns worst rating 90.7 is better than Cutlers worst rating 65.6

 

And McCowns best rating 141.9 is better than Cutlers best rating 128.1

 

McCown has had a rating above 100 in 5 games. Cutler has had a rating above 100 in 2 games.

 

So maybe Cutler will be better, maybe McCown will be bad. But the stats right now seem to suggest that McCown is better, and unless Jay wants a salary comparable to McCown im not sure how you take a $10mil+ risk.

 

(Edit)

 

I also like how people keep acting like journeyman is a bad thing. Where I come from desire matters, sometimes the person with the most god given talent doesnt win or finish first, not because they didnt have the talent, but because someone else had more desire, more will to win.

Edited December 10, 2013 by Soxbadger

[RockRaines]

It doesnt matter what other teams do.

 

People are wrong and sometimes systems matter. The second McCown came in weeks ago, you could see that there was a different vibe with the Bears offense. It was crisper, plays were being called smoother and audibles were much better.

 

Did you know that McCowns worst rating 90.7 is better than Cutlers worst rating 65.6

 

And McCowns best rating 141.9 is better than Cutlers best rating 128.1

 

McCown has had a rating above 100 in 5 games. Cutler has had a rating above 100 in 2 games.

 

So maybe Cutler will be better, maybe McCown will be bad. But the stats right now seem to suggest that McCown is better, and unless Jay wants a salary comparable to McCown im not sure how you take a $10mil+ risk.

Based on Jay having the first few games and McCown coming in against mostly cupcakes? No thanks, I dont buy it. I think its funny that we finally have a system for our franchise level QB and now people are clamoring for the backup. who by all accounts was out of football a year ago.

[StrangeSox]

This system isn't designed for the deep ball, so that skill is nice but unnecessary.

 

What system doesn't have deep passes as an important play or at least important to be a credible threat?

 

Also, why does it matter that Cutler hasn't had time to adjust to the system (not really true btw, he had the offseason, preseason, and 7-8 games with starter reps) when McCown didn't either? McCown literally came into two games this year without any practice and performed immensely better than Cutler. And it had nothing to do with his physical abilities.

 

You're not following.

 

The entire offense didn't have time to adjust to the new system. The entire rest of the offense has kept playing, even with Cutler down. Everyone else on the field is more experienced in that offense. The two rookie linemen have gained immensely valuable experience. Alshon Jeffrey has gone from being a pretty good developing WR2 to a highlight reel machine. That's all really independent of Cutler or McCown personally having experience with the system.

 

McCown has performed pretty well so far. "Immensely" better? No, not really, and he's not putting up any more points than Cutler was.

[StrangeSox]

McCown has only faced one defense ranked higher than 21st. That was the Ravens in the rain and mud.

They are rated that low because McCown shredded them and destroyed their mental confidence for the entire season! Even retroactively!

[RockRaines]

What system doesn't have deep passes as an important play or at least important to be a credible threat?

 

 

 

You're not following.

 

The entire offense didn't have time to adjust to the new system. The entire rest of the offense has kept playing, even with Cutler down. Everyone else on the field is more experienced in that offense. The two rookie linemen have gained immensely valuable experience. Alshon Jeffrey has gone from being a pretty good developing WR2 to a highlight reel machine. That's all really independent of Cutler or McCown personally having experience with the system.

 

McCown has performed pretty well so far. "Immensely" better? No, not really, and he's not putting up any more points than Cutler was.

You are basing your second point on people watching more than the QB. The blocking schemes they are using now including with Forte are incredibly different than what was in place earlier in the season. The routes they are running and the audibles that are available are MUCH better and I dont think Josh McCown has anything to do with either.

[StrangeSox]

Based on Jay having the first few games and McCown coming in against mostly cupcakes? No thanks, I dont buy it. I think its funny that we finally have a system for our franchise level QB and now people are clamoring for the backup. who by all accounts was out of football a year ago.

Most Bears fans have a deep, subconscious desire to want a mediocre QB and to always, always root for the backup. It's all they know from decades of suffering.

[BigSqwert]

McCown being smarter with the ball keeps being a big selling point for him, so we should actually look at the decisions he's making, not just the outcomes. Yesterday, he made two really dumb decisions (or bad throws) that thankfully were dropped, but they were still not smart plays on his part. Let's see some evidence that McCown really is smarter with the ball, and that the difference is big enough to make up for the clearly inferior physical talents.

 

Why do you keep focusing on two plays out of 69 snaps on offense? We can all easily find at minimum two poor decisions in each of Cutler's games.

[Jenksismyhero]

McCown being smarter with the ball keeps being a big selling point for him, so we should actually look at the decisions he's making, not just the outcomes. Yesterday, he made two really dumb decisions (or bad throws) that thankfully were dropped, but they were still not smart plays on his part. Let's see some evidence that McCown really is smarter with the ball, and that the difference is big enough to make up for the clearly inferior physical talents.

 

Did you miss the 13 to 1 TD:INT ratio? You're unnecessarily pooh poohing a guy away who has had one of the best stretches as a Bears QB EVER, in the history of the franchise.

 

Do we really want to go through the tape to find a bunch of awful throws Cutler has made over the years? Didn't he lead the league for a long stretch with the most red zone interceptions?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Letting Cutler walk in favor of McCown is trading your number 2 starter to make room for Bruce CHen.

[LittleHurt05]

McCown has only faced one defense ranked higher than 21st. That was the Ravens in the rain and mud.

 

Interesting. The 1st half of the schedule B.MC. (Before McCown) definitely had tougher passing matchups.

 

Ranked by passing yards / game

 

CIN - 8th

MIN -30th

PIT - 11th

DET - 26th

NO - 4th

NYG - 13th

 

WAS - 27th

GB - 22nd

DET - 26th

BAL - 12th

STL - 19th

MIN -30th

DAL - 31st

 

CLE - 5th

PHI - 32nd

GB - 22nd

[StrangeSox]

Why do you keep focusing on two plays out of 69 snaps on offense? We can all easily find at minimum two poor decisions in each of Cutler's games.

 

Because those two plays were really dumb decisions/bad throws that don't show up on the stat sheet. That the DB's happened to drop the ball doesn't make those decisions any better, so if we're talking about a player being "smart" with the ball, that needs to be taken into consideration. If those two balls are picked, which they easily could have been, there's not so much ridiculous talk about dumping Cutler and sticking with a journeyman QB who was out of the NFL.

[Soxbadger]

Based on Jay having the first few games and McCown coming in against mostly cupcakes? No thanks, I dont buy it. I think its funny that we finally have a system for our franchise level QB and now people are clamoring for the backup. who by all accounts was out of football a year ago.

 

What about based on the game where they played the same opponent with the same team?

 

Redskins:

 

J. McCown 14/20 204 10.2 1 0 1-7 94.6 119.6

J. Cutler 3/8 28 3.5 0 1 1-6 0.1 8.3

 

Detroit:

 

Game 1

 

J. Cutler 27/47 317 6.7 2 3 3-31 36.6 65.6

 

Game 2

 

J. Cutler 21/40 250 6.3 1 1 1-9 47.2 69.8

 

J. McCown 6/9 62 6.9 1 0 1-3 93.3 123.4

 

 

But you are right, lets give Cutler a blank check, because what if he is good.

 

What I find funny is that people are making excuses for a guy who is going to want $100mil + at age 31 with stats that are worse than a journeyman. And you guys are just lining up to pay him.

 

 

[RockRaines]

Because those two plays were really dumb decisions/bad throws that don't show up on the stat sheet. That the DB's happened to drop the ball doesn't make those decisions any better, so if we're talking about a player being "smart" with the ball, that needs to be taken into consideration. If those two balls are picked, which they easily could have been, there's not so much ridiculous talk about dumping Cutler and sticking with a journeyman QB who was out of the NFL.

I'll laugh at whoever signs Josh McCown as their starter in the offseason, and if its the Bears i'll laugh in shame.

[StrangeSox]

Did you miss the 13 to 1 TD:INT ratio? You're unnecessarily pooh poohing a guy away who has had one of the best stretches as a Bears QB EVER, in the history of the franchise.

 

Thanks for bringing up the stat, which is exactly the point. That TD:INT ratio doesn't tell the whole story about whether a player is making smart decisions with the ball. If McCown throws it right to the DB 50 times but they always drop it, wouldn't it be pretty silly to talk about how he always makes great decisions?

 

Do we really want to go through the tape to find a bunch of awful throws Cutler has made over the years? Didn't he lead the league for a long stretch with the most red zone interceptions?

Actually, he had the longest gap between red zone interceptions until earlier this year with that tipped ball. He hadn't thrown one since 2010.

 

Nobody is arguing that Cutler doesn't make dumb decisions, though. Just that how "smart" McCown is is overstated by seven games worth of TD:INT.

[RockRaines]

But you are right, lets give Cutler a blank check, because what if he is good.

 

What I find funny is that people are making excuses for a guy who is going to want $100mil + at age 31 with stats that are worse than a journeyman. And you guys are just lining up to pay him.

Its not a blank check, its a set amount of money. And yes, I would pay a franchise QB to play in this system, 100% of the time.

[StrangeSox]

Its not a blank check, its a set amount of money. And yes, I would pay a franchise QB to play in this system, 100% of the time.

 

Remember when NE let Brady go after Cassel had that good season and proved it was really just the system and the QB didn't matter?