2013-2014 NFL Thread

[StrangeSox]

Come on now, we are seeing it happen with McCown right now.

 

That's a pretty great self-refuting argument lol

[Dick Allen]

I don't think anyone is really saying Cutler isn't as good as McCown, but right now McCown is playing like a Pro Bowl QB. If you really think he can sustain this type of performance, there is no reason to bring back Cutler, even if he is better. I don't know how you can determine that, but if it can be determined by the people closest to the situation, the money would be better spent elsewhere as the offense is plenty explosive enough. One problem though is if you let Cutler walk and McCown gets hurt, can the next guy be as good?

Edited December 10, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Harry Chappas]

LOLWhat? Several people in this thread has said yes pay him. Less Risk, Higher upside. Its a NO BRAINER.

 

unless you have a better QB option, tell me. Otherwise its McCown vs Cutler and its not even a debate IMO.

 

Cutler's upside is what McCown is doing now. MCown is not going to carry this forward but the question is, is there another quarterback that can be placed into this system that can produce at a QBR that McCown is?

 

Oddly, the defense will cost this team any shot of the playoffs.

 

In reference to McCown and the Minnesota game that was all on Trestman pulling back the reins once the Bears went up. Something he did not do last evening. He lost them that game.

 

Trestman knows Cutler is the better option for his offense the question will be, does Jay want to play for the Bears on the Bears terms. If so he will be here for a few more years. If not he will be franchised.

[LittleHurt05]

What about based on the game where they played the same opponent with the same team?

 

Redskins:

 

J. McCown 14/20 204 10.2 1 0 1-7 94.6 119.6

J. Cutler 3/8 28 3.5 0 1 1-6 0.1 8.3

 

Detroit:

 

Game 1

 

J. Cutler 27/47 317 6.7 2 3 3-31 36.6 65.6

 

Game 2

 

J. Cutler 21/40 250 6.3 1 1 1-9 47.2 69.8

 

J. McCown 6/9 62 6.9 1 0 1-3 93.3 123.4

 

 

But you are right, lets give Cutler a blank check, because what if he is good.

 

What I find funny is that people are making excuses for a guy who is going to want $100mil + at age 31 with stats that are worse than a journeyman. And you guys are just lining up to pay him.

 

Cutler played the first quarter and a half vs WAS then got hurt. McCown played the second half where the Bears kept playing catch up.

 

Cutler's stats @ Detroit where McCown hasn't played this year.

 

Cutler played a whole game hurt (shouldn't have played IMO), then McCown plays one drive where the Lions are in prevent.

 

Great comparison, those are all identical situations.

[StrangeSox]

And thats silly if you can use that money to fix other positions.

 

What are the great defensive FA's this year? I honestly don't know who's up.

 

If the Bears had no other holes and had money to burn, sure spend it on Cutler, all things being equal (money) he probably is the safer bet.

 

But if you are living in a world where you have fixed income, you cant always spend your money on luxuries.

 

Regardless of needs, it's wrong to think that if someone is going to cost five times as much, you should get five times as much production. That's not how marginal utility works.

[Soxbadger]

Two games Cutler left because of injuries? One of which he was clearly injured the entire time? Yeah, that's a pretty horrible comparison.

 

 

Yep McCown played better against the Vikings. And if we're going to keep talking about his (half) season numbers, we need to keep in mind that he's been putting them up against garbage defenses.

 

Look you are a Cutler apologist, I get it.

 

Cutler wasnt injured to start the Redskins game, he just sucked. He wasnt injured against the Vikings, McCown just had better stats.

 

We get that youre argument is "Im hoping Jay Cutler can be better", I just see no reason to put "hope" into the equation. I come from a world where you "hope for the best, prepare for the worst". And the worst is that Jay Cutler is a mediocre/average Qb that isnt very good at pre-snap reads/audibles and is not a good fit for Trestman's system.

 

If that is true, you dont spend $15mil per year on him. McCown is irrelevant, he just exposed the myth of Cutler.

 

But hey, Im fine with hoping. I hope that Cutler turns int a HOF QB and wins 7 Super Bowls. We can all sleep easy now.

[Soxbadger]

Cutler played the first quarter and a half vs WAS then got hurt. McCown played the second half where the Bears kept playing catch up.

 

Cutler's stats @ Detroit where McCown hasn't played this year.

 

Cutler played a whole game hurt (shouldn't have played IMO), then McCown plays one drive where the Lions are in prevent.

 

Great comparison, those are all identical situations.

 

What about the Vikings?

 

Cutler and McCown have only played 3 similar opponents.

 

In each of those games McCown out performed Cutler.

 

These are the stats. You tell me why Cutler didnt do as good against the Vikings. McCown had a rating of 114, Cutler 97.7.

 

I guess its because the game was outside and McCown was inside?

 

How many excuses do you want to make for a $15mil per year player?

[Kyyle23]

Cutler's upside is what McCown is doing now. MCown is not going to carry this forward but the question is, is there another quarterback that can be placed into this system that can produce at a QBR that McCown is?

 

Oddly, the defense will cost this team any shot of the playoffs.

 

In reference to McCown and the Minnesota game that was all on Trestman pulling back the reins once the Bears went up. Something he did not do last evening. He lost them that game.

 

Trestman knows Cutler is the better option for his offense the question will be, does Jay want to play for the Bears on the Bears terms. If so he will be here for a few more years. If not he will be franchised.

 

This is all it is. If Jay wants to remain within this offense, with these tools, and a system and coach that understands offense, then they will work it out. 15 mil per year can not happen, it has to be a compromise on both sides.

 

And to be honest, Jay has to understand this better than most. He had arguably his finest year in Denver when their defense was an absolute sieve. Going off for numbers like he did and not going to the playoffs has to hurt. The defense needs to be fixed, the Bears need money for that

[Jenksismyhero]

Good point! Deep passes are never considered a threat with Trestman. Wait....

 

 

 

Oh, so deep passes are important? Whoops.

 

McCown has had a couple of deep passes. He is nowhere near the deep threat that Cutler is. And it's not just depth, but longer throws across the field or harder throws to get into tighter windows. Cutler can make those throws while McCown can't.

 

 

 

 

 

He left earlier in the game. No, he wasn't playing well and yes McCown stepped in and did.

 

How is McCown "in more control of the offense"? What does that mean?

 

What is the evidence that he's calling better audibles? How do you know when he's calling audibles?

 

The deep ball is not essential to the system. At all. The Bears have scored on more long, sustained drives than at any time I can remember. That's the west coast system. Yes, they occasionally throw it deep, its not frequent enough to need a QB with an arm like that.

 

Do you watch the games? If you can't agree that how McCown operates the offense is better than Cutler I'm just down arguing with you. You're not watching the same games i'm watching. The ball moves around much better with McCown. McCown is actually reading the progressions. It's absolutely noticeable how each respective QB operates in the system. That's not to say Cutler can't get better, i'm sure he will. But I just don't know how much better he'll be than how McCown is playing now.

 

And yes, you can tell the audible when he walks up to the line, points to a bunch of guys and says "oh s***! they're coming" and then executes a perfect screen play. He's done it several times this season and multiple times last night. Cutler wasn't doing that at the beginning of the season. He'd retreat backwards and then throw the ball at someone's feet.

 

Again, not saying McCown is some pro bowler. I'm defending him more than I should. I just don't agree with you that he's some nobody who has just gotten lucky over his "brief" time as a starter. He's been very, very good. And I think you're overstating how good Cutler is/will be.

[Jake]

McCown has been started 7 games in a row twice. The last time, his team went 6-7 with him on the field and 0-3 off. The only other time he had significant starting time was three years later in Oakland where he replaced a just 30-year-old Daunte Culpepper, who didn't fare any better than McCown did.

 

This is the just the second time he's consistently started, the third our fourth time in a decade that he's had appreciable playing time, and the first time he's had a decent supporting cast around him. In Arizona, he had two rookie wideouts that turned out great -- Boldin and Fitzgerald. Arizona replaced McCown with Kurt Warner, who went 2-8.

 

While McCown is almost surely not this good, it is not impossible that he is much, much better than the McCown of the past that played sporadically for horribad football teams.

[Harry Chappas]

Yep McCown played better against the Vikings. And if we're going to keep talking about his (half) season numbers, we need to keep in mind that he's been putting them up against garbage defenses.

 

He played better against the Vikings in Minnesota when the Vikigns seem to be playing much better than earlier in the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Zach Zaidman ‏@ZachZaidman 9m

 

NFL has flexed December 22nd #Bears game in Philadelphia to Sunday night.

[StrangeSox]

Look you are a Cutler apologist, I get it.

 

Cutler wasnt injured to start the Redskins game, he just sucked. He wasnt injured against the Vikings, McCown just had better stats.

 

I didn't say he was injured against the Redskins. I said he left that game pretty early thanks to injury. I come from a world where it's useless to look at 1qtr+ of play and compare it against 2+qtr of play and think you get anything meaningful out of it.

 

We get that youre argument is "Im hoping Jay Cutler can be better", I just see no reason to put "hope" into the equation. I come from a world where you "hope for the best, prepare for the worst". And the worst is that Jay Cutler is a mediocre/average Qb that isnt very good at pre-snap reads/audibles and is not a good fit for Trestman's system.

 

If that is true, you dont spend $15mil per year on him. McCown is irrelevant, he just exposed the myth of Cutler.

 

But hey, Im fine with hoping. I hope that Cutler turns int a HOF QB and wins 7 Super Bowls. We can all sleep easy now.

 

Oh, so there's absolutely no hope in plugging in a 35 year old journeyman QB who was pretty horrible until this one seven game stretch? It's pretty much a lock that McCown will put up a 90+QB rating next year and we won't be wasting the first good set of offensive talent in decades?

[Jake]

Emery has already said that he does not feel comfortable giving Cutler the money that will go to a franchise tagged QB. It's too much money.

[southsider2k5]

McCown has been started 7 games in a row twice. The last time, his team went 6-7 with him on the field and 0-3 off. The only other time he had significant starting time was three years later in Oakland where he replaced a just 30-year-old Daunte Culpepper, who didn't fare any better than McCown did.

 

This is the just the second time he's consistently started, the third our fourth time in a decade that he's had appreciable playing time, and the first time he's had a decent supporting cast around him. In Arizona, he had two rookie wideouts that turned out great -- Boldin and Fitzgerald. Arizona replaced McCown with Kurt Warner, who went 2-8.

 

While McCown is almost surely not this good, it is not impossible that he is much, much better than the McCown of the past that played sporadically for horribad football teams.

 

The fact that McCown is 34 years old and hasn't started much isn't a statment in his favor. It tells you how good the guy really is.

[Harry Chappas]

The audible McCown called when he told Forte to block the blitzing weak side linebacker was a nice read.

[StrangeSox]

The deep ball is not essential to the system. At all. The Bears have scored on more long, sustained drives than at any time I can remember. That's the west coast system. Yes, they occasionally throw it deep, its not frequent enough to need a QB with an arm like that.

 

It is, again, not just about throwing it vertically down the field, which, again, really is important as a threat for any system. There are throws that are shorter vertically but still need to get across the field in a hurry. Cutler, with his significantly stronger arm, can make throws that McCown can't.

 

Do you watch the games? If you can't agree that how McCown operates the offense is better than Cutler I'm just down arguing with you. You're not watching the same games i'm watching. The ball moves around much better with McCown. McCown is actually reading the progressions. It's absolutely noticeable how each respective QB operates in the system. That's not to say Cutler can't get better, i'm sure he will. But I just don't know how much better he'll be than how McCown is playing now.

 

Yes, I watch the games, but no, I don't agree with your subjective and ill-defined argument that the "ball moves around much better," and I don't really see the evidence that McCown is reading progressions whereas Cutler wasn't.

 

And yes, you can tell the audible when he walks up to the line, points to a bunch of guys and says "oh s***! they're coming" and then executes a perfect screen play. He's done it several times this season and multiple times last night. Cutler wasn't doing that at the beginning of the season. He'd retreat backwards and then throw the ball at someone's feet.

 

That's not the only time a play is audibled or the QB has an option. Short of a formation change, we don't really know what was called and what was audibled.

 

Again, not saying McCown is some pro bowler. I'm defending him more than I should. I just don't agree with you that he's some nobody who has just gotten lucky over his "brief" time as a starter. He's been very, very good. And I think you're overstating how good Cutler is/will be.

 

He is just some nobody who's gotten lucky, or he's the first person ever to go from so-bad-he's-out-of-the-league to top-10 QB in a year. Yes, he's playing very well. Nobody disputes that. But it's taking a huge, huge risk to assume he'll keep playing this well for another full season.

 

[Jenksismyhero]

I understand that you're not following the argument, but it's not that complicated. If we want to talk about QBs making good decisions, you can't look only at the number of INTs they have. It misses all of the times that they made really poor decisions but were lucky with them.

 

Nobody has said anything close to what you're trying to parody here.

 

 

 

Many, including you, are arguing that he can keep up pretty phenomenal and completely unprecedented (for him) pace.

 

 

 

That's not the argument because that's not how football/economics works e.g. you might have to pay twice as much to get 10% better production.

 

That's your argument! "Look guys, he had two dropped interceptions last night. I'm ignoring all of the good throws he made and pointing to two out of 70 to show you that he's not as smart as you think." Come on. And the TD:INT ration isn't the be all end all statistic, but it's an important one. And you know what it's better than? The 13 to 8 ratio that Cutler has (and he's had some dropped int's too! Totally not smart with the ball!)

 

 

[RockRaines]

The audible McCown called when he told Forte to block the blitzing weak side linebacker was a nice read.

And who knows if that particular protection call was in place 5 weeks ago.

[StrangeSox]

That's your argument! "Look guys, he had two dropped interceptions last night. I'm ignoring all of the good throws he made and pointing to two out of 70 to show you that he's not as smart as you think." Come on. And the TD:INT ration isn't the be all end all statistic, but it's an important one. And you know what it's better than? The 13 to 8 ratio that Cutler has (and he's had some dropped int's too! Totally not smart with the ball!)

No, it isn't. You're just being silly now.

 

eta: you could very well be right about McCown being much smarter than Cutler, but let's see some evidence beyond TD:INT and "don't you watch the games?!" I realize that what I'm asking for would be a lengthy piece for a professional sports writer and would take a ton of effort to produce, though.

Edited December 10, 2013 by StrangeSox

[Jenksismyhero]

No, it isn't. You're just being silly now.

 

eta: you could very well be right about McCown being much smarter than Cutler, but let's see some evidence beyond TD:INT and "don't you watch the games?!" I realize that what I'm asking for would be a lengthy piece for a professional sports writer and would take a ton of effort to produce, though.

 

It would. You need the advanced stats like Time to Throw.

[RockRaines]

At least this Cutler argument has evolved past his facial expressions on the sidelines to actual production.

[LittleHurt05]

What about the Vikings?

 

Cutler and McCown have only played 3 similar opponents.

 

In each of those games McCown out performed Cutler.

 

These are the stats. You tell me why Cutler didnt do as good against the Vikings. McCown had a rating of 114, Cutler 97.7.

 

I guess its because the game was outside and McCown was inside?

 

How many excuses do you want to make for a $15mil per year player?

 

You are right, a game against Vikings shows who is the better QB.

 

Flacco vs. Vikings - 64.2

Romo vs. Vikings - 90.1

Eli vs. Vikings - 81.1

Big Ben vs. Vikings - 90.6

Stafford vs. Vikings - 96.8

 

I guess McCown is also a better QB than Flacco, Romo, Eli Manning, Big Ben, & Stafford. Maybe the Bears should ask for a straight up trade, Stafford for McCown?

[Jake]

I've always been a big fan of Cutler. I think I may just be a bigger fan of Trestman

[Kyyle23]

i love soxtalk