chisoxfan09 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,7279767.story By Mark Gonzales Tribune reporter 9:01 p.m. CST, February 11, 2013 GLENDALE, Ariz. - It's virtually axiomatic that Detroit is a prohibitive favorite to repeat as American League Central champions. But Baseball Prospectus doesn't envision the Chicago White Sox coming close to dethroning the Tigers as they nearly did in 2012. The Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA projections have forecast a 77-85 record for the Sox, who were 85-77 and finished three games behind Detroit last year. Here's a chart of Baseball Prospectus' predictions for the Sox and the Sox's actual record in seasons since 2005, according to the Sox: Year Prediction Actual Difference in Wins 2005 80-82 99-63 +19 2006 82-80 90-72 +8 2007 73-89 72-90 -1 2008 77-85 89-74* +12 2009 73-89 79-83 +6 2010 79-83 88-74 +9 2011 82-80 79-83 -3 2012 78-84 85-77 +7 *actual 2008 record includes the tiebreaker game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So it consistently underrates us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chisoxfan09 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 So it consistently underrates us. Yeah, I was looking at how they've been off most of the years. Does PECOTA forecast anything correctly? I think they also do player forecasts, don't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 11, 2013 -> 11:35 PM) So it consistently underrates us. They've underrated the Sox by 7.125 games on average each year. So it should be a good bet that the Sox will win 84-85 games this year then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 02:54 AM) They've underrated the Sox by 7.125 games on average each year. So it should be a good bet that the Sox will win 84-85 games this year then. I approve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How does everyone else look? Also, didn't these guys really take pride in themselves for 2007 being almost 100% right? Like as a sign that they know what the Sox will always do? Even though they've been wrong most of the time? (or am I thinking of someone else who got full of themselves projection-wise) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (Cali @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 11:41 AM) How does everyone else look? Also, didn't these guys really take pride in themselves for 2007 being almost 100% right? Like as a sign that they know what the Sox will always do? Even though they've been wrong most of the time? (or am I thinking of someone else who got full of themselves projection-wise) Will Carroll with BP predicted the Sox to go 72-90 in 2007 and nailed it perfectly, and then he gloated about it because White Sox fans ripped him. The year before he predicted them to do well, but in 2005 he predicted them to win about 70 games again and then they won the World Series. He's an idiot because he suggested it would be largely due to a terrible, terrible pitching staff with a mediocre offense, when the pitching staff was actually pretty good and the offense was absolutely terrible (though the bullpen was pretty terrible that year outside of Jenks). He then predicted something similar in 2008 and ate s*** again. Will Carroll is smart but he's a small, bitter man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looking at what the Sox lost during the offseason, I don't see a substantial drop in wins for 2013. The starting pitching could (and should) be as good or better. The bullpen looks very solid. Third base is at least a minor upgrade. Catcher might be the only big drop off, and that's only because of AJ's outlier of a year. Realistically, I think Flowers and AJ have similar years in 2013. If Rios, Konerko, and Dunn don't have major regressions, the power department should be adequate. And truthfully, Dunn didn't have a terrific year. The HRs were good, but his BA was poor. If he makes any sort of adjustment, we could see a few less HRs and a few added points to his BA. The bench is a bit of a concern, and I hope another move or two is made to solidify it. All that being said, I don't believe the Sox have the team to catch the Tigers. On paper, that is. Last year, we didn't think they would compete like they did, either. I see another 84-87 win season, taking second place behind Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I honestly think the Sox have enough on the bench - more specifically, on the bench or in the minors - that the quality of the bench players in the MLB won't matter much. The most you're going to see a bench player really ever bring is 1 win...and that is the most. Typically, they'll be between -0.5 and 0.5, so you want to find ones whose advantages and upside you can control the most. Angel Sanchez is a good fielder, and fielding generally doesn't sleep. Wise has turned into a pretty steady bat off the bench for the Sox. Can the backup come in and catch a couple games in a row if necessary? Then he's all you need. Considering Flowers, Dunn, and Konerko can all play 1B (and maybe Kepp and Viciedo in a pinch), you have all 9 positions covered. At that point, last guy on the bench is just who earned a spot in Spring Training. I'm hoping for Morel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 12:06 PM) Will Carroll with BP predicted the Sox to go 72-90 in 2007 and nailed it perfectly, and then he gloated about it because White Sox fans ripped him. The year before he predicted them to do well, but in 2005 he predicted them to win about 70 games again and then they won the World Series. He's an idiot because he suggested it would be largely due to a terrible, terrible pitching staff with a mediocre offense, when the pitching staff was actually pretty good and the offense was absolutely terrible (though the bullpen was pretty terrible that year outside of Jenks). He then predicted something similar in 2008 and ate s*** again. Will Carroll is smart but he's a small, bitter man. He is smart in the regards that everyone looks at his predictions and talks about them every year. If it takes some wrong years to get that attention, it doesn't really matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Projections mean nothing. They are good for conversation. I really like BP and get it every year. However, of the 3 teams they projected to finish in last place in the AL last year, 2 of them made the playoffs. Watch all the experts and all the systems pick playoff teams and MVPs and Cy Young winners. Then look at it the day after the WS ends. It will make you really wonder why anyone would possibly get riled up over said projections in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 01:02 PM) Projections mean nothing. They are good for conversation. I really like BP and get it every year. However, of the 3 teams they projected to finish in last place in the AL last year, 2 of them made the playoffs. Watch all the experts and all the systems pick playoff teams and MVPs and Cy Young winners. Then look at it the day after the WS ends. It will make you really wonder why anyone would possibly get riled up over said projections in the first place. This is exactly right. On top of that, most good projections will give an expected, an high end projection, and a low end projection. A good projection for Alexei Ramirez would be .260/.300/.350 for a .650 OPS. Would anybody be surprised if he put up .280/.330/.400 for a .730 OPS? Or would you be surprised if he put up .250/.280/.320 for a .600 OPS? Same thing with Viciedo...he could put up anywhere between .850 or .900 or as low as .675 or .700. Most of the time, these projections are pretty accurate. It only takes them inaccurate on about 4 of them for things to go either really well or really poorly. Projections give a nice baseline to compare to and they fill column space during dead periods. They should, all the same, be taken with a huge grain of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 03:04 PM) lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal PECOTA's been bad for a long time and they should feel bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 03:04 PM) lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal Winning the WS bumped them up 2 games from the prior year's prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ginger Kid Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like Beckham's quote this morning: "Baseball Prospectus. I don't even know what that is." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 (edited) That's why the games are played on the field and not on paper or looking through a crystal ball Edited February 12, 2013 by JoshPR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 01:17 PM) Looking at what the Sox lost during the offseason, I don't see a substantial drop in wins for 2013. The starting pitching could (and should) be as good or better. The bullpen looks very solid. Third base is at least a minor upgrade. Catcher might be the only big drop off, and that's only because of AJ's outlier of a year. Realistically, I think Flowers and AJ have similar years in 2013. 3b ought to be more than a minor upgrade. It really is hard to believe how little the sox got from that position last year. .600 ops from that position with rotten defense. Average defense from Kep and his career .730 ish ops would be like replacing one of the other spots in our lineup with an all star. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 04:25 PM) 3b ought to be more than a minor upgrade. It really is hard to believe how little the sox got from that position last year. .600 ops from that position with rotten defense. Average defense from Kep and his career .730 ish ops would be like replacing one of the other spots in our lineup with an all star. -0.1 WAR from all Sox 3B. That includes 1.2 WAR from Youk. To specify, this is actually just from people who played 3B at some point. It was probably slightly above replacement level, but it was ugly. It should be considerably "not ugly" for the whole year. Edited February 12, 2013 by witesoxfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillMissOzzie Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This should be all you need to know about BP and PECOTA: These rocket scientists have PECOTA'd both the Sox and the Cubs to identical 77-85 records for 2013. I think that the Sox pitching will keep them above .500, while I look forward to the Cubs going back-to-back 100 games losers. Bite me, PECOTA SMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 People sure do get upset by PECOTA every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 QUOTE (StillMissOzzie @ Feb 13, 2013 -> 12:15 AM) This should be all you need to know about BP and PECOTA: These rocket scientists have PECOTA'd both the Sox and the Cubs to identical 77-85 records for 2013. I think that the Sox pitching will keep them above .500, while I look forward to the Cubs going back-to-back 100 games losers. Bite me, PECOTA SMO Here's this for those who are wondering. It's merely a projection based system. It almost always says the Sox are going to be worse. You really shouldn't care too much about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max power Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 (edited) The white sox roster is usually quite dynamic throughout the year, so I don't blame pectora for messing it up somewhat. Some years, however, make no sense at all, like 2006. Edited February 14, 2013 by MAX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 QUOTE (MAX @ Feb 14, 2013 -> 12:15 AM) The white sox roster is usually quite dynamic throughout the year, so I don't blame pectora for messing it up somewhat. Some years, however, make no sense at all, like 2006. I don't think "A dynamic roster" has very much to do with it at all. I think PECOTA seriously underestimates the things the Sox tend to be good at and highlights some of our weaknesses. We have pitchers who, for example, sometimes trade velocity and strikeouts for better control (one of Cooper's signatures). PECOTA loves strikeout pitchers. It never liked Mark Buehrle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincystandback Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 03:18 PM) I like Beckham's quote this morning: "Baseball Prospectus. I don't even know what that is." That's my favorite Beckham quote. Doesn't pay attention to that stuff, just plays baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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