Yearly Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Season forecast

[chisoxfan09]

Link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,7279767.story

 

 

By Mark Gonzales Tribune reporter

 

9:01 p.m. CST, February 11, 2013

 

GLENDALE, Ariz. - It's virtually axiomatic that Detroit is a prohibitive favorite to repeat as American League Central champions.

 

But Baseball Prospectus doesn't envision the Chicago White Sox coming close to dethroning the Tigers as they nearly did in 2012.

 

The Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA projections have forecast a 77-85 record for the Sox, who were 85-77 and finished three games behind Detroit last year.

 

Here's a chart of Baseball Prospectus' predictions for the Sox and the Sox's actual record in seasons since 2005, according to the Sox:

 

Year Prediction Actual Difference in Wins

 

2005 80-82 99-63 +19

 

2006 82-80 90-72 +8

 

2007 73-89 72-90 -1

 

2008 77-85 89-74* +12

 

2009 73-89 79-83 +6

 

2010 79-83 88-74 +9

 

2011 82-80 79-83 -3

 

2012 78-84 85-77 +7

 

*actual 2008 record includes the tiebreaker game

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

So it consistently underrates us.

[chisoxfan09]

So it consistently underrates us.

 

Yeah, I was looking at how they've been off most of the years. Does PECOTA forecast anything correctly? I think they also do player forecasts, don't they?

[chw42]

So it consistently underrates us.

 

They've underrated the Sox by 7.125 games on average each year. So it should be a good bet that the Sox will win 84-85 games this year then.

[Quin]

They've underrated the Sox by 7.125 games on average each year. So it should be a good bet that the Sox will win 84-85 games this year then.

 

I approve.

[Cali]

How does everyone else look?

 

Also, didn't these guys really take pride in themselves for 2007 being almost 100% right? Like as a sign that they know what the Sox will always do? Even though they've been wrong most of the time? (or am I thinking of someone else who got full of themselves projection-wise)

[witesoxfan]

How does everyone else look?

 

Also, didn't these guys really take pride in themselves for 2007 being almost 100% right? Like as a sign that they know what the Sox will always do? Even though they've been wrong most of the time? (or am I thinking of someone else who got full of themselves projection-wise)

 

Will Carroll with BP predicted the Sox to go 72-90 in 2007 and nailed it perfectly, and then he gloated about it because White Sox fans ripped him. The year before he predicted them to do well, but in 2005 he predicted them to win about 70 games again and then they won the World Series.

 

He's an idiot because he suggested it would be largely due to a terrible, terrible pitching staff with a mediocre offense, when the pitching staff was actually pretty good and the offense was absolutely terrible (though the bullpen was pretty terrible that year outside of Jenks).

 

He then predicted something similar in 2008 and ate s*** again.

 

Will Carroll is smart but he's a small, bitter man.

[hogan873]

Looking at what the Sox lost during the offseason, I don't see a substantial drop in wins for 2013. The starting pitching could (and should) be as good or better. The bullpen looks very solid. Third base is at least a minor upgrade. Catcher might be the only big drop off, and that's only because of AJ's outlier of a year. Realistically, I think Flowers and AJ have similar years in 2013.

 

If Rios, Konerko, and Dunn don't have major regressions, the power department should be adequate. And truthfully, Dunn didn't have a terrific year. The HRs were good, but his BA was poor. If he makes any sort of adjustment, we could see a few less HRs and a few added points to his BA.

 

The bench is a bit of a concern, and I hope another move or two is made to solidify it.

 

All that being said, I don't believe the Sox have the team to catch the Tigers. On paper, that is. Last year, we didn't think they would compete like they did, either. I see another 84-87 win season, taking second place behind Detroit.

[witesoxfan]

I honestly think the Sox have enough on the bench - more specifically, on the bench or in the minors - that the quality of the bench players in the MLB won't matter much. The most you're going to see a bench player really ever bring is 1 win...and that is the most. Typically, they'll be between -0.5 and 0.5, so you want to find ones whose advantages and upside you can control the most. Angel Sanchez is a good fielder, and fielding generally doesn't sleep. Wise has turned into a pretty steady bat off the bench for the Sox. Can the backup come in and catch a couple games in a row if necessary? Then he's all you need. Considering Flowers, Dunn, and Konerko can all play 1B (and maybe Kepp and Viciedo in a pinch), you have all 9 positions covered. At that point, last guy on the bench is just who earned a spot in Spring Training. I'm hoping for Morel.

[southsider2k5]

Will Carroll with BP predicted the Sox to go 72-90 in 2007 and nailed it perfectly, and then he gloated about it because White Sox fans ripped him. The year before he predicted them to do well, but in 2005 he predicted them to win about 70 games again and then they won the World Series.

 

He's an idiot because he suggested it would be largely due to a terrible, terrible pitching staff with a mediocre offense, when the pitching staff was actually pretty good and the offense was absolutely terrible (though the bullpen was pretty terrible that year outside of Jenks).

 

He then predicted something similar in 2008 and ate s*** again.

 

Will Carroll is smart but he's a small, bitter man.

 

He is smart in the regards that everyone looks at his predictions and talks about them every year. If it takes some wrong years to get that attention, it doesn't really matter.

[Dick Allen]

Projections mean nothing. They are good for conversation. I really like BP and get it every year. However, of the 3 teams they projected to finish in last place in the AL last year, 2 of them made the playoffs. Watch all the experts and all the systems pick playoff teams and MVPs and Cy Young winners. Then look at it the day after the WS ends. It will make you really wonder why anyone would possibly get riled up over said projections in the first place.

[witesoxfan]

Projections mean nothing. They are good for conversation. I really like BP and get it every year. However, of the 3 teams they projected to finish in last place in the AL last year, 2 of them made the playoffs. Watch all the experts and all the systems pick playoff teams and MVPs and Cy Young winners. Then look at it the day after the WS ends. It will make you really wonder why anyone would possibly get riled up over said projections in the first place.

 

This is exactly right. On top of that, most good projections will give an expected, an high end projection, and a low end projection.

 

A good projection for Alexei Ramirez would be .260/.300/.350 for a .650 OPS. Would anybody be surprised if he put up .280/.330/.400 for a .730 OPS? Or would you be surprised if he put up .250/.280/.320 for a .600 OPS?

 

Same thing with Viciedo...he could put up anywhere between .850 or .900 or as low as .675 or .700. Most of the time, these projections are pretty accurate. It only takes them inaccurate on about 4 of them for things to go either really well or really poorly.

 

Projections give a nice baseline to compare to and they fill column space during dead periods. They should, all the same, be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[The Ultimate Champion]

lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal

[chw42]

lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal

 

PECOTA's been bad for a long time and they should feel bad.

[Texsox]

lol how in the f*** did those cocksuckers manage to predict an 80-82 record for the 2006 juggernaut club that returned a WS champ plus Jim Thome & Javy Vazquez... unreal

 

 

Winning the WS bumped them up 2 games from the prior year's prediction.

[The Ginger Kid]

I like Beckham's quote this morning:

 

"Baseball Prospectus. I don't even know what that is."

[JoshPR]

That's why the games are played on the field and not on paper or looking through a crystal ball

Edited February 12, 2013 by JoshPR

[Balta1701]

Looking at what the Sox lost during the offseason, I don't see a substantial drop in wins for 2013. The starting pitching could (and should) be as good or better. The bullpen looks very solid. Third base is at least a minor upgrade. Catcher might be the only big drop off, and that's only because of AJ's outlier of a year. Realistically, I think Flowers and AJ have similar years in 2013.

3b ought to be more than a minor upgrade. It really is hard to believe how little the sox got from that position last year. .600 ops from that position with rotten defense. Average defense from Kep and his career .730 ish ops would be like replacing one of the other spots in our lineup with an all star.

[witesoxfan]

3b ought to be more than a minor upgrade. It really is hard to believe how little the sox got from that position last year. .600 ops from that position with rotten defense. Average defense from Kep and his career .730 ish ops would be like replacing one of the other spots in our lineup with an all star.

 

-0.1 WAR from all Sox 3B. That includes 1.2 WAR from Youk.

 

To specify, this is actually just from people who played 3B at some point. It was probably slightly above replacement level, but it was ugly. It should be considerably "not ugly" for the whole year.

Edited February 12, 2013 by witesoxfan

[StillMissOzzie]

This should be all you need to know about BP and PECOTA: These rocket scientists have PECOTA'd both the Sox and the Cubs to identical 77-85 records for 2013.

 

I think that the Sox pitching will keep them above .500, while I look forward to the Cubs going back-to-back 100 games losers. Bite me, PECOTA

 

SMO

[DirtySox]

People sure do get upset by PECOTA every year.

[witesoxfan]

This should be all you need to know about BP and PECOTA: These rocket scientists have PECOTA'd both the Sox and the Cubs to identical 77-85 records for 2013.

 

I think that the Sox pitching will keep them above .500, while I look forward to the Cubs going back-to-back 100 games losers. Bite me, PECOTA

 

SMO

 

Here's this for those who are wondering. It's merely a projection based system. It almost always says the Sox are going to be worse. You really shouldn't care too much about this.

[max power]

The white sox roster is usually quite dynamic throughout the year, so I don't blame pectora for messing it up somewhat. Some years, however, make no sense at all, like 2006.

Edited February 14, 2013 by MAX

[Balta1701]

The white sox roster is usually quite dynamic throughout the year, so I don't blame pectora for messing it up somewhat. Some years, however, make no sense at all, like 2006.

I don't think "A dynamic roster" has very much to do with it at all. I think PECOTA seriously underestimates the things the Sox tend to be good at and highlights some of our weaknesses. We have pitchers who, for example, sometimes trade velocity and strikeouts for better control (one of Cooper's signatures). PECOTA loves strikeout pitchers. It never liked Mark Buehrle.

[Quincystandback]

I like Beckham's quote this morning:

 

"Baseball Prospectus. I don't even know what that is."

 

That's my favorite Beckham quote. Doesn't pay attention to that stuff, just plays baseball.