Yearly Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Season forecast

[Balta1701]

In retrospect, I could have dealt with 3 weeks of Dan Johnson while Konerko rested up -- but I don't know if I would have made the decision at the time if Paul said he was good enough to go.

The problem was that there was no guarantee 3 weeks would have done it. According to our resident physician and what we could get from the Sox post-season statements, there was a reasonable chance that if they tried to remove Konerko's bone chip, that would be it for him for the season. It turned out to be wrong, but that couldn't have been known before the surgery was attempted.

 

If you had a 50% chance of dealing with Dan Johnson from June - October, wouldn't the decision change?

[witesoxfan]

The solution, obviously, was to shut down Konerko and Youkilis in July and August and finish with an 82 win team?

 

I think you just proved my point for me.

[LittleHurt05]

Pure luck over 1, even 2 seasons makes some sense. We're talking about a trend that has lasted over a decade.

 

That is true and the Sox staff deserves credit, but there is some randomness when it comes to injuries. Some young pitchers get coddled and their arm falls off. Others get worked & worked yet they stay healthy as can be.

[Eminor3rd]

The problem was that there was no guarantee 3 weeks would have done it. According to our resident physician and what we could get from the Sox post-season statements, there was a reasonable chance that if they tried to remove Konerko's bone chip, that would be it for him for the season. It turned out to be wrong, but that couldn't have been known before the surgery was attempted.

 

If you had a 50% chance of dealing with Dan Johnson from June - October, wouldn't the decision change?

 

Certainly.

[Balta1701]

I think you just proved my point for me.

So what's the downside in playing guys if it produces extra wins?

[Eminor3rd]

So what's the downside in playing guys if it produces extra wins?

 

I think you guys are arguing the same thing.

[witesoxfan]

For the most part. Essentially, not having minor league depth, to some extent, reduces your ability to let guys like Konerko and Dunn sit and get healthy because you will lose too often due to the terrible quality of the replacements. As such, they will play and perform better than replacement level players, and thus better than projected, even though injured, but they will not be performing at their peak physical condition.

[Balta1701]

For the most part. Essentially, not having minor league depth, to some extent, reduces your ability to let guys like Konerko and Dunn sit and get healthy because you will lose too often due to the terrible quality of the replacements. As such, they will play and perform better than replacement level players, and thus better than projected, even though injured, but they will not be performing at their peak physical condition.

The fact that we're outperforming PECOTA so regularly argues to me that this doesn't really make a difference if it's the case...if guys were getting injured and playing through it when they should be resting, that shouldn't translate to extra wins. It might well translate to an extra win or two once, but it's going to sneak up and bite you the next season at the best.

[Eminor3rd]

For the most part. Essentially, not having minor league depth, to some extent, reduces your ability to let guys like Konerko and Dunn sit and get healthy because you will lose too often due to the terrible quality of the replacements. As such, they will play and perform better than replacement level players, and thus better than projected, even though injured, but they will not be performing at their peak physical condition.

 

Yeah, but for a guy who is going to spend all year in AAA if all goes well, you can't get much better than Dan Johnson. Anyone better wouldn't sign up for that kind of role.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, but for a guy who is going to spend all year in AAA if all goes well, you can't get much better than Dan Johnson. Anyone better wouldn't sign up for that kind of role.

 

Debatable. Johnson had been horrible in his major league stops going back all of the way to 2007.

[Cali]

The way Paulie was hitting during the wrist injury.... the numbers Johnson would have put up were at least gonna be comparable...

[Wedge]

Here's a paragraph from Nate Silver's book:

 

In 2007, for instance, PECOTA predicted that the Chicago White Sox -- just two years removed from winning a World Series title -- would finish instead with just seventy-two wins. The forecast was met with howls of protest from the Chicago media and from the White Sox front office. But it turned out to be exactly right: the White Sox went 72-90.

[southsider2k5]

Here's a paragraph from Nate Silver's book:

 

So the one year they were right, versus all of the others when they were horribly wrong. Sounds about right.

[Balta1701]

The way Paulie was hitting during the wrist injury.... the numbers Johnson would have put up were at least gonna be comparable...

Again, only known in hindsight. Paulie played through this bone chip for a year and a half.

[witesoxfan]

Here's a paragraph from Nate Silver's book:

 

Again, they're using the ends to justify the means, but that year PECOTA/BP stated that the Sox offense was going to be good and the pitching was going to be awful. The pitching was bad, but that was mostly due to a bullpen that was disasterous (only one regular reliever had an ERA under 4, and that was Jenks who had probably the best year of his career) and 3 good starting pitchers. Meanwhile, the Sox had the worst offense in the league by pretty much any measure you could find, so that was a clear outlier, and even then, they barely got it.

 

Oh, and because of the catastrophe that was the offense - they probably would have won 74-76 had they kept Iguchi and Mackowiak, but what was the point? - they got 1634 PAs out of players with a .645 OPS or less. That doesn't include the 235 they got out of Podsednik (.668). And realize that that .645 was the best - out of f***ing Erstad - out of the entire group of those players. Andy Gonzalez got 215 of those and he put up an astounding .529 OPS.

 

So yeah, if they want to hang their hat on that, they can, but it literally took everything going wrong for that forecast to be right.

[Cali]

Again, they're using the ends to justify the means, but that year PECOTA/BP stated that the Sox offense was going to be good and the pitching was going to be awful. The pitching was bad, but that was mostly due to a bullpen that was disasterous (only one regular reliever had an ERA under 4, and that was Jenks who had probably the best year of his career) and 3 good starting pitchers. Meanwhile, the Sox had the worst offense in the league by pretty much any measure you could find, so that was a clear outlier, and even then, they barely got it.

 

Oh, and because of the catastrophe that was the offense - they probably would have won 74-76 had they kept Iguchi and Mackowiak, but what was the point? - they got 1634 PAs out of players with a .645 OPS or less. That doesn't include the 235 they got out of Podsednik (.668). And realize that that .645 was the best - out of f***ing Erstad - out of the entire group of those players. Andy Gonzalez got 215 of those and he put up an astounding .529 OPS.

 

So yeah, if they want to hang their hat on that, they can, but it literally took everything going wrong for that forecast to be right.

 

Easily one of the Top 3 worst players I've ever seen in a Sox uniform, based on sucking while somehow still getting AB's. A double-whammy. His name make me shutter.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Cali

[southsider2k5]

Easily one of the Top 3 worst players I've ever seen in a Sox uniform, based on sucking while somehow still getting AB's. A double-whammy. His name make me shutter.

 

I'll bet you are thrilled he is in camp this year...

[Cali]

I'll bet you are thrilled he is in camp this year...

 

Maybe he's a funny guy?

 

Unlike 2007 there is NO ROOM FOR HIM ON THIS TEAM. And Ozzie is not in charge of putting together the team.

[Balta1701]

Maybe he's a funny guy?

 

Unlike 2007 there is NO ROOM FOR HIM ON THIS TEAM. And Ozzie is not in charge of putting together the team.

By my count, we have 1 infield utility man, Angel Sanchez. They may go with Danks and Wise as the backup of's, but if they want a utility guy who can play middle infield positions, I don't see anyone else.

[Cali]

By my count, we have 1 infield utility man, Angel Sanchez. They may go with Danks and Wise as the backup of's, but if they want a utility guy who can play middle infield positions, I don't see anyone else.

 

A broom with a White Sox jersey and hat? I think it could hit .185 over 215 AB's

[southsider2k5]

Maybe he's a funny guy?

 

Unlike 2007 there is NO ROOM FOR HIM ON THIS TEAM. And Ozzie is not in charge of putting together the team.

 

Yeah, the Rule V pick and Morel are ahead of him for sure. Probably Carlos Sanchez too.

[Balta1701]

Yeah, the Rule V pick and Morel are ahead of him for sure. Probably Carlos Sanchez too.

If one of the everyday players goes down this is probably true, but for bench depth...I think its Gonzalez.

[southsider2k5]

If one of the everyday players goes down this is probably true, but for bench depth...I think its Gonzalez.

 

Sounds like they are going to see if Morel can still play SS (he played some in college). That could change things.

[Balta1701]

Sounds like they are going to see if Morel can still play SS (he played some in college). That could change things.

Interesting, hadn't seen that. If he could stay healthy and start hitting like he did before he got called up that could move him back into the big leagues later this year.

[southsider2k5]

Interesting, hadn't seen that. If he could stay healthy and start hitting like he did before he got called up that could move him back into the big leagues later this year.

 

If he hits like we thought he could when he came up, he probably is the starter at 3rd, and Keppinger get used as a super utility guy who plays 5 out of 7 days a week or so.