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Yearly Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Season forecast


chisoxfan09

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QUOTE (Cali @ Feb 12, 2013 -> 11:41 AM)
How does everyone else look?

 

Also, didn't these guys really take pride in themselves for 2007 being almost 100% right? Like as a sign that they know what the Sox will always do? Even though they've been wrong most of the time? (or am I thinking of someone else who got full of themselves projection-wise)

 

If you go back and look at their analysis in 07 they were completely wrong. They projected a slight decline in offense and a giant decline in pitching. The opposite happened. Pitching was decent and offense was horrible. So they got the record right, but only because the exact opposite of what they projected happened.

 

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QUOTE (everafan @ Mar 4, 2013 -> 07:30 PM)
If you go back and look at their analysis in 07 they were completely wrong. They projected a slight decline in offense and a giant decline in pitching. The opposite happened. Pitching was decent and offense was horrible. So they got the record right, but only because the exact opposite of what they projected happened.

 

I've made this point quite a bit. I could have predicted the Ravens winning the Superbowl this year based on their historically strong defenses, a great running game, and an effective game manager, and I'd have been right on exactly one point - that the Ravens won the Superbowl. If I did that, I'd eat my words and say "I was right in that they won, but I completely missed the boat on how they got there."

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