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Yearly Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Season forecast


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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 01:32 PM)
If he hits like we thought he could when he came up, he probably is the starter at 3rd, and Keppinger get used as a super utility guy who plays 5 out of 7 days a week or so.

I'm the guy who kept defending him, and I have no urge to see Morel as a starter in the bigs any time soon. Hitting .450 in April wouldn't be enough to convince me unless someone gets hurt. Give him more than a short time at AAA to both feel healthy again and to try to get his swing in order.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 12:36 PM)
I'm the guy who kept defending him, and I have no urge to see Morel as a starter in the bigs any time soon. Hitting .450 in April wouldn't be enough to convince me unless someone gets hurt. Give him more than a short time at AAA to both feel healthy again and to try to get his swing in order.

 

If Brent Morel hits 450 in Spring Training and demonstrates that his back is fine I would hope that he is the 3rd baseman for this team. If he is going to have reoccuring back issues then no thanks.

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QUOTE (balfanman @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 03:03 PM)
If Brent Morel hits 450 in Spring Training and demonstrates that his back is fine I would hope that he is the 3rd baseman for this team. If he is going to have reoccuring back issues then no thanks.

Spring training health will not convince me that his back issues will not recur. That's why I would prefer him everyday ing it for a good log time before the big league team even thinks about a callup.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 02:44 PM)
Spring training health will not convince me that his back issues will not recur. That's why I would prefer him everyday ing it for a good log time before the big league team even thinks about a callup.

 

Yes, I agree. Rick Hahn, Robin Ventura and Herm Schnieder really need to rely on the long term prognosis in this case. I would hope that they don't just keep him for any short term hope and then he's gone in 2 months.

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QUOTE (balfanman @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 03:06 PM)
Yes, I agree. Rick Hahn, Robin Ventura and Herm Schnieder really need to rely on the long term prognosis in this case. I would hope that they don't just keep him for any short term hope and then he's gone in 2 months.

 

If he's only going to last short term, I'd rather get out of him what we can.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 04:07 PM)
If he's only going to last short term, I'd rather get out of him what we can.

Were not exactly talking about Josh Hamilton with the bats here. 2 months of a replacement level player dealing with back problems isn't something to write home about.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 03:10 PM)
Were not exactly talking about Josh Hamilton with the bats here. 2 months of a replacement level player dealing with back problems isn't something to write home about.

If his back isn't going to hold up in Chicago, it won't in Charlotte either. If he has 2 months of health in his system and he is better than a guy like Sanchez, you take him for 2 months.

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QUOTE (Special K @ Feb 20, 2013 -> 08:49 PM)
Morel is horrible. I think this board has amnesia.

It's far from amnesia. Our memories are too good . The power he flashed at the end of the season 2 years ago gave a lot of us hope the Sox might have a diamond in the rough, a real power hitting , good glove 3rd sacker , which is becoming a rarity in baseball.

 

And if I recall correctly those HR's were not just garden variety. The distance they traveled were on average longer than Dunn's HR's.

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Morel put up a .653 OPS in 2011, despite a monster September. He also didn't have any significant back injuries that year. Ignore last season, and this is basically his body of work at the major league level. All he's shown so far is that he can be a good glove, light-hitting 3B.

 

Let's be honest, no one knows what we have in Brent Morel at this point in time. A rookie season doesn't define a player, but let's not forget Morel was never an elite prospect to begin with. However, given what's he shown in nearly 600 ABs, there is simply no reason to rush him back to the majors, not when we have a capable starting 3B. Let him get consistent at-bats in AAA and prove himself once again. If he shows enough at Charlotte, then he can be considered for a role on the major league team later this season.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 07:29 AM)
Morel put up a .653 OPS in 2011, despite a monster September. He also didn't have any significant back injuries that year. Ignore last season, and this is basically his body of work at the major league level. All he's shown so far is that he can be a good glove, light-hitting 3B.

 

Let's be honest, no one knows what we have in Brent Morel at this point in time. A rookie season doesn't define a player, but let's not forget Morel was never an elite prospect to begin with. However, given what's he shown in nearly 600 ABs, there is simply no reason to rush him back to the majors, not when we have a capable starting 3B. Let him get consistent at-bats in AAA and prove himself once again. If he shows enough at Charlotte, then he can be considered for a role on the major league team later this season.

 

Want to guess what the most games Keppinger has played at 3B in a season is? Let me put it this way, Morel has almost doubled it.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 07:35 AM)
Want to guess what the most games Keppinger has played at 3B in a season is? Let me put it this way, Morel has almost doubled it.

 

I agree with this. While Keppinger is most likely a huge upgrade from the garbage that we had at 3rd base last season, he is far from a sure thing to be solid 3rd baseman for a whole season. IMO, Brent Morel, if healthy (BIG IF) is a better solution for 3rd base than Keppinger. Keppinger is a fantastic choice for a back up infielder, a role he performed quite well in Tampa last year.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 07:29 AM)
Morel put up a .653 OPS in 2011, despite a monster September. He also didn't have any significant back injuries that year. Ignore last season, and this is basically his body of work at the major league level. All he's shown so far is that he can be a good glove, light-hitting 3B.

 

Let's be honest, no one knows what we have in Brent Morel at this point in time. A rookie season doesn't define a player, but let's not forget Morel was never an elite prospect to begin with. However, given what's he shown in nearly 600 ABs, there is simply no reason to rush him back to the majors, not when we have a capable starting 3B. Let him get consistent at-bats in AAA and prove himself once again. If he shows enough at Charlotte, then he can be considered for a role on the major league team later this season.

 

I'm with you. I'm not saying Keppinger is a sure thing, but there is absolutely no reason not to assume it's his job to lose. The guy was .329/.367/.439 last year, and Brent Morel was .245/.287/.366 in his NON-injured year. Yeah, Keppinger is probably not good at defense at third, but let's not forget that Morel hasn't exactly lived up to the hype of being the great defender we thought he was -- he has essentially graded out as a scratch defender in his time in the majors so far by UZR and I think the eye test has matched.

 

I'm not saying he can't be better than has been both offensively and defensively (our samples are small in both cases), but there's really nothing there so far to suggest otherwise. So in a year where you claim to be competing, there is no reason at all to force playing time for Morel to see what you have. Keppinger has got to lose the job first.

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If anyone is suggesting that they want Brent Morel starting at 3B, they're fooling themselves. I think this is far more Morel vs Sanchez than it is Morel vs Keppinger and people are wearing rosy colored glasses and saying "if Morel shows he's healthy and if he's hit in the minors like he has in the past, then we can give him a shot."

 

If Morel is putting up a .775-.800 OPS, then I absolutely want him starting at 3B every day, but the odds of that happening are minute at this point.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 11:20 AM)
I'm with you. I'm not saying Keppinger is a sure thing, but there is absolutely no reason not to assume it's his job to lose. The guy was .329/.367/.439 last year, and Brent Morel was .245/.287/.366 in his NON-injured year. Yeah, Keppinger is probably not good at defense at third, but let's not forget that Morel hasn't exactly lived up to the hype of being the great defender we thought he was -- he has essentially graded out as a scratch defender in his time in the majors so far by UZR and I think the eye test has matched.

 

I'm not saying he can't be better than has been both offensively and defensively (our samples are small in both cases), but there's really nothing there so far to suggest otherwise. So in a year where you claim to be competing, there is no reason at all to force playing time for Morel to see what you have. Keppinger has got to lose the job first.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that we play Morel regardless of how he performs (at least, I haven't been). But if he shows a strong bat for a while, I'm inclined to believe that last season's abysmal start was truly due to his back and give him another shot. In a more perfect world, the Sox are better off with a good Morel at 3b and Keppinger as a super-util.

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Morel could be the back up infielder. Beckham and Ramirez aren't going to be pulled for defense. Keppinger could be, Paulie could be. Morel could come in late, play 3B and have Keppinger move to 1B if necessary or Keppinger could play another position the days Morel is starting.

 

No one is calling Morel a great player, but right now the extra infielder is Angel Sanchez. I don't think his baseball card is worth much. Maybe it will be beneficial for Morel, again assumming he is healthy, to get some ABs in Charlotte, but if he looks good this spring, I think putting him on the roster makes sense. He really has nothing to prove at AAA. He's either a AAAA player or useful in the major leagues.

 

 

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QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 08:33 AM)
I don't think anyone is suggesting that we play Morel regardless of how he performs (at least, I haven't been). But if he shows a strong bat for a while, I'm inclined to believe that last season's abysmal start was truly due to his back and give him another shot. In a more perfect world, the Sox are better off with a good Morel at 3b and Keppinger as a super-util.

Sounds to me like some people would rather have Morel starting if he has a strong spring. That's the concern right there.

 

Let's not let somewhat meaningless spring stats skew our decision-making. Keppinger was brought in to be the starting 3B and he should have that role on opening day, regardless how he or Morel performs in Arizona.

 

A couple months into the season, you can reevaluate the situation and if Morel is deserving of the starting job, maybe it makes sense to move Keppinger to the super-sub role. While I think a super-sub role is the ideal spot for Keppinger long-term, I'm not convinced Morel is the guy to push him there yet.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 10:39 AM)
Sounds to me like some people would rather have Morel starting if he has a strong spring. That's the concern right there.

 

Let's not let somewhat meaningless spring stats skew our decision-making. Keppinger was brought in to be the starting 3B and he should have that role on opening day, regardless how he or Morel performs in Arizona.

 

A couple months into the season, you can reevaluate the situation and if Morel is deserving of the starting job, maybe it makes sense to move Keppinger to the super-sub role. While I think a super-sub role is the ideal spot for Keppinger long-term, I'm not convinced Morel is the guy to push him there yet.

 

No one wants to just hand Morel the 3rd base job; and spring stats, while a factor, don't have as much to do with it as how his back is feeling. Personaly, I'll let Rick Hahn, Robin Ventura, Herm Schneider and the rest of the Sox brain trust decide who plays 3rd base, mainly because they know a lot more than any of us here do. Even though it is a small chance, I hope that Morels back is completely healed and he becomes a solid 3rd baseman, offensively & defensively for years to come.

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QUOTE (balfanman @ Feb 21, 2013 -> 09:04 AM)
No one wants to just hand Morel the 3rd base job; and spring stats, while a factor, don't have as much to do with it as how his back is feeling. Personaly, I'll let Rick Hahn, Robin Ventura, Herm Schneider and the rest of the Sox brain trust decide who plays 3rd base, mainly because they know a lot more than any of us here do. Even though it is a small chance, I hope that Morels back is completely healed and he becomes a solid 3rd baseman, offensively & defensively for years to come.

I'm just happy there's an actual baseball discussion going on. This place has been dead. Morel actually sounds delirious when talking about how good he feels right now. I hope it continues and he can show us the real Morel for better or worse.

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