2013 Cubs catch all thread

[justBLAZE]

Worth pointing out since the Chicago media seems to think the Sox couldn't give Peavy away

 

THIS.

[hammerhead johnson]

FWIW, Jon Heyman says contending GMs see Peavy as a better get than Garza

 

This makes sense is if contending GMs are viewing Garza as a strict rental.

 

But Garza has 1100 career innings, whereas, Peavy is at 1900. That's a pretty enormous difference in mileage.

 

But there's no question that Peavy is more valuable as far as this particular season is concerned.

 

Side note - when wite was discussing Samardzija, he got hung up on his age (28) when he should have checked his career IP (475). So his arm is what, 25?

[Kyyle23]

This makes sense is if contending GMs are viewing Garza as a strict rental.

 

But Garza has 1100 career innings, whereas, Peavy is at 1900. That's a pretty enormous difference in mileage.

 

But there's no question that Peavy is more valuable as far as this particular season is concerned.

 

Side note - when wite was discussing Samardzija, he got hung up on his age (28) when he should have checked his career IP (475). So his arm is what, 25?

 

Do his minor league and college innings not count?

[hammerhead johnson]

Do his minor league and college innings not count?

 

Yes. Pee wee league counts too.

 

But to be practical, we'll determine major league mileage by looking at major league innings. Valuable pitching prospects don't get ridden hard in the minors.

[Jake]

Yes. Pee wee league counts too.

 

But to be practical, we'll determine major league mileage by looking at major league innings. Valuable pitching prospects don't get ridden hard in the minors.

 

For comparison's sake, Sale has thrown just a little bit less in the MLB - 405 IP.

 

We can't say they've had a similar workload though, because Jeffy threw 485 IP in MiLB while Chris threw 10.

 

Samardzija threw 241 IP in college, too. Chris had similar college usage.

 

What we can see, though, is you can't call Samardzija's arm 25 when he's thrown twice the innings of our 24 year old ace. How old is Chris's arm? 12? All of those innings count.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Jake

[Kyyle23]

For comparison's sake, Sale has thrown just a little bit less in the MLB - 405 IP.

 

We can't say they've had a similar workload though, because Jeffy threw 485 IP in MiLB while Chris threw 10.

 

Samardzija threw 241 IP in college, too. Chris had similar college usage.

 

What we can see, though, is you can't call Samardzija's arm 25 when he's thrown twice the innings of our 24 year old ace. How old is Chris's arm? 12? All of those innings count.

 

This doesnt count because he is valuable and these innings were obviously not important so his arm didnt mind.

[hammerhead johnson]

This doesnt count because he is valuable and these innings were obviously not important so his arm didnt mind.

 

Let's not be disingenuous. You argue like a female, haha.

 

There is absolutely no question that Samardzija's arm is at least a couple years younger than his actual age. The same can be said for Sale, although he puts much more stress on his arm due to his odd throwing motion.

 

The point is, you're on strict pitch counts & innings limits in the minors. You don't get overextended. 485 minor league innings is the equivalent of how many IP in the majors?

[Kyyle23]

Let's not be disingenuous. You argue like a female, haha.

 

There is absolutely no question that Samardzija's arm is at least a couple years younger than his actual age. The same can be said for Sale, although he puts much more stress on his arm due to his odd throwing motion.

 

The point is, you're on strict pitch counts & innings limits in the minors. You don't get overextended. 485 minor league innings is the equivalent of how many IP in the majors?

 

You fall in love like a female, Jeffy is your new Tyson Chandler, haha.

 

You are the one giving arm ages due to innings pitched, so I guess nobody can argue with your own formula. The point here is that JS has had some good moments in the majors and some really bad ones. Up until last season he was largely considered a bust and even last season he did not finish out nearly as strong as he started. He could very well put it together and be a good pitcher, but he has a long way to go before he will be this elite pitcher you are seeing.

[Jake]

I don't understand why his arm is "young" for his age. Did he ever stop pitching? What makes him different from anyone else that is 28?

[hammerhead johnson]

You fall in love like a female, Jeffy is your new Tyson Chandler, haha.

 

Not even 1/100 of the mancrush that I had on Tyson Chandler.

 

I have no emotional investment in Jeffy.

 

but he has a long way to go before he will be this elite pitcher you are seeing.

 

When you say "elite", I think of guys like Sale, Kershaw, Verlander, Darvish, etc. Samardzija's upside is certainly not that. I'm thinking elite #2.

[hammerhead johnson]

I don't understand why his arm is "young" for his age. Did he ever stop pitching? What makes him different from anyone else that is 28?

 

Because he only has 475 IP on the major league level. Only 53 career starts. I put his arm in the 25/26 age range. I want to put Sale at 21/22 (obviously, no minor league innings = less wear and tear), but I hesitate because of his gruesome throwing motion.

[witesoxfan]

To me, Samardzija is a lesser version of prime Kerry Wood. The raw numbers will look incredibly similar, but it's an easier league to pitch in now, so we say lesser.

[hammerhead johnson]

To me, Samardzija is a lesser version of prime Kerry Wood. The raw numbers will look incredibly similar, but it's an easier league to pitch in now, so we say lesser.

 

Jeff just became a full-time starter last year. His FIP and xFIP exceed what Kerry Wood did in his prime, and their SIERAs are about even (3.40 range).

 

SIERA Scale

2.75 = Excellent

3.25 = Great

3.75 = Above Average

3.90 = Average

4.20 = Below Average

4.50 = Poor

5.00 = Awful

 

Take a wild guess as to where Jose Quintana resides. Somewhere between below average and poor. He's improving, though.

 

I know, I'm just a hater.

[flavum]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/359414236423786496

 

Garza to Rangers back on, I guess.

[Jake]

As much as I'd love to see the Cubs get screwed in a Garza deal, we should root for them to get something that looks like a good return. The better they do, the higher the market is set for Peavy, who should fetch significantly more (by significant, I mean enough that you can tell that it is more)

 

Because he only has 475 IP on the major league level. Only 53 career starts. I put his arm in the 25/26 age range. I want to put Sale at 21/22 (obviously, no minor league innings = less wear and tear), but I hesitate because of his gruesome throwing motion.

 

You can't discount the minor leagues. Samardzija is what his age says he is. A guy that has pitched consistently through age 28. He doesn't get bonus points for not being good enough to glide through the minor leagues in 1-2 years.

Edited July 22, 2013 by Jake

[witesoxfan]

Jeff just became a full-time starter last year. His FIP and xFIP exceed what Kerry Wood did in his prime, and their SIERAs are about even (3.40 range).

 

SIERA Scale

2.75 = Excellent

3.25 = Great

3.75 = Above Average

3.90 = Average

4.20 = Below Average

4.50 = Poor

5.00 = Awful

 

Take a wild guess as to where Jose Quintana resides. Somewhere between below average and poor. He's improving, though.

 

I know, I'm just a hater.

 

Jose Quintana - 3.61 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.03 xFIP; 92 FIP- (where lower numbers are good), which is 1% better than Samardzija's 93. For most pitchers, you can find some number that makes them look bad.

 

I've laid out my case. Regarding the miles on his arm thing, a lot of people asked about the miles on his arm thing already, but I don't even care about that. Samardzija is entering his prime years physically and athletically. During this time frame, his physical and mental aptitude will gel and unite and he will never be better. Once 32 and 33 roll around, he will begin to deteriorate physically, regardless of the miles on his arm. At that point, Quintana will just be ENTERING his.

 

Yes, I'm still taking Quintana.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Dale Sveum lied to us all.

[Kyyle23]

David Schuster @Schumouse: Garza yanked from start tonite...deal near

[Rowand44]

Olt, Edwards and a third player.

[fathom]

It's amazing how much more the Cubs got for Garza as opposed to Dempster last year.

[LittleHurt05]

What exactly are the Cubs gonna do with Olt? 1st base is locked up, and if I am to believe the hype, Bryant should be in the majors at 3B very soon. Can he play in the outfield?

[Jake]

It's amazing how much more the Cubs got for Garza as opposed to Dempster last year.

 

I think Garza's street cred from his AL East days has helped him immensely, plus the recent development that he is supposedly an ace

[Jake]

What exactly are the Cubs gonna do with Olt? 1st base is locked up, and if I am to believe the hype, Bryant should be in the majors at 3B very soon. Can he play in the outfield?

 

There had been speculation that the Rangers were thinking about him in the OF as a means to open a spot for him, so I suppose that is in the cards.

[fathom]

What exactly are the Cubs gonna do with Olt? 1st base is locked up, and if I am to believe the hype, Bryant should be in the majors at 3B very soon. Can he play in the outfield?

 

Just gives them one more guy they can try and get good value for when they eventually trade for pitching.

[LittleHurt05]

It's amazing how much more the Cubs got for Garza as opposed to Dempster last year.

 

Garza has recently proven himself in the AL, I would argue he's a much better pitcher than Dempster. Plus, that was at the deadline after the Cubs flubbed the earlier trade, so they were more desperate.