Blogger call with Buddy Bell

[southsider2k5]

Buddy Bell was kind enough to spend almost a half hour taking questions from Sox bloggers and websites today. Thanks to Buddy and to Marty in the Sox front office for organizing this! Here are some of the highlights... (this is from my transcriptions, so they are not full quotes, but as close as I could get while taking notes. I apologize in advance for any differences!)

 

-With the promotion, how have your responsibilities changed? Not a lot, he will still oversee the minors, but will travel more with the big league club this year. He only did one time last year. He will also stay involved in scouting.

 

-Will the Sox stay aggressive in moving kids through the minors? "Players dictate the speed at which we promote." Numbers meaning something, but not a lot. The Sox like to move kids to challenge them, even though they know their numbers could suffer for it. Sometimes at the lower levels they can get by on their talent.

 

-Courtney Hawkins. They were wanting to move Courtney up at the end of the year to challenge him, and the Kanny situation was "a bit different" so that is why they moved him to Winston-Salem. They wanted him to experience playoff baseball. He tricked "us by getting better". He is a tough kid who gets better as the lights get brighter. They want to see him at AA by the end of the year, if that doesn't happen that is OK. He will start this season at WS.

 

-Jared Mitchell. He got healthier as the season went on. He needs to understand hard and soft (speaking of pitch recognition). Mitchell was one that Bell was referring to when he talked about his numbers being hurt by the aggressive promotion, they might have suffered. Bell said he looks as good as anyone in camp physically. Great body. He has tweaked his approach, and now has better balance. Balance is good now. Bell really wants to see him in games. He is as impressive as anyone in this stage of camp, and will start out at Charlotte. The change in his stance was mechanical. He got into some bad habits, maybe because of the injury in camp a couple of years ago. He now looks like an "athletic hitters" instead of an "athlete trying to be a hitter". Bell also said bringing him to AFL in 2011 was "idiotic" and one of the dumber things he has done.

 

How will Birmingham's new park play? It will play smaller and more "fair". It won't play short, but more fair. The old park made it hard to not only evaluate hitters, but pitchers as well. He is also excited because the City of Birmingham is going to do more to talk about the baseball history down there, including the Negro Leagues.

 

Who has the chance to surprise this year ala Carlos Sanchez? Bell said Joey Dimechelle is really interesting. He gave him a Kipnis comp. in that he can run, has a little pop, and is high energy. He does only play second, and is getting much better mechanically, though he did play OF in college. Not sure if he will start at WS or at Bham. Also mentioned Saladino as a guy in this category. He said his numbers were down, though only his average was really down. Bell wants to see him in Birmingham.

 

-Off of the previous topic, Bell mentioned that the team was really working on their minor league system infield depth. They feel they have good depth in the OF and at C, but not in the IF, though he feels that is a common thing around baseball. The IF situation isn't the best.

 

-Latin America- The situation in LA has gotten so much better. The organization needs LA to be competitive, they are very excited about it. The Sox could see three more kids from LA and their Dominican Academy stay in the states, though they brought a lot of them to spring training for the first time this year. They hadn't done so in the past because their LA system kids had been so bad. Bell stated that Cruz (an IF), Otano, and Rodriguez (both OFs) had the chance to stay in the states right away, as well as Olacio. He really like Olacio, but he got "gassed" by the end of the season. Bell also mentioned 17 year old Santos, Otano, Perralta, and Artiga (sp?). They also have other kids they like, but can't talk about because they are undergoing "investigations".

 

Trayce Thompson- He will start in Birmingham. He looks really good, and is starting to get his "man strength". They want to be careful with him because they know that power usually comes later, but kids are usually conscious of it because it is their game. They think about it too much. They are trying to get him to be more consistent, they know he will probably have high strike out totals always, but they are wanting him to not shorten up with two strikes, but to have a better two strike approach.

 

Chris Beck- Beck reports tomorrow. Chris got big, but not overweight while he was in college because of a weightlifting program that turned into a bit of a contest apparently. He is now leaner and made great progress in the instructional league when they let him go after limiting his innings in the minors. Bell really likes his body now. Praised his curve, slider, and change. Bell also mentioned Brennan and Hanson from the '12 draft as guys they really like. They want to move them through the system together and use them to compare to each other. All three will start in Kanny, though he felt they could each start higher.

 

Keenyn Walker- He fought injuries most of the season last year, which made the numbers he put up even more impressive. His numbers were better than "he felt". He had both his shoulder and knee operated on, on the same day in October. He lost about 20 pounds after that, but has put most of it back on. They want to see him start at AA, but they have to see how the numbers (other player assignments) work out. He really showed a lot playing through the injuries last year. The Sox kind of like to see their kids play through some "minor" injuries if they can, as they will have to do it at the big league level. Bell also said that he is a kid who "understands his speed" and makes is a part of his game. He is more of a line drive hitter in comparison to Mitchell, who has the same sort of speed.

[southsider2k5]

Also thanks to those that asked questions... I got a few in.

[elrockinMT]

Thanks for posting. Great info. Lots of fun to read

[ScottyDo]

-Latin America- The situation in LA has gotten so much better. The organization needs LA to be competitive, they are very excited about it. The Sox could see three more kids from LA and their Dominican Academy stay in the states, though they brought a lot of them to spring training for the first time this year. They hadn't done so in the past because their LA system kids had been so bad. Bell stated that Cruz (an IF), Otano, and Rodriguez (both OFs) had the chance to stay in the states right away, as well as Olacio. He really like Olacio, but he got "gassed" by the end of the season. Bell also mentioned 17 year old Santos, Otano, Perralta, and Artiga (sp?). They also have other kids they like, but can't talk about because they are undergoing "investigations".

Great stuff! Any elaboration on what the bolded means?

[southsider2k5]

Great stuff! Any elaboration on what the bolded means?

 

I got the impression is was background checks (maybe age confirmations?) from the context of the conversations. Could have even been hinting at future signings, I wasn't quite sure.

[witesoxfan]

I got the impression is was background checks (maybe age confirmations?) from the context of the conversations. Could have even been hinting at future signings, I wasn't quite sure.

 

Not that I have any context on the situation, but that was my impression from reading it, but more than just age. Identity and family history as well, and I mean like size of fathers, size of mothers and grandparents, size of siblings, culture growing up, any addictive qualities, any emotional problems, anything and everything.

[southsider2k5]

Not that I have any context on the situation, but that was my impression from reading it, but more than just age. Identity and family history as well, and I mean like size of fathers, size of mothers and grandparents, size of siblings, culture growing up, any addictive qualities, any emotional problems, anything and everything.

 

It really didn't feel like a bad connotation. It felt like a "that's how these things work" connotation.

[witesoxfan]

It really didn't feel like a bad connotation. It felt like a "that's how these things work" connotation.

 

Just a background check basically. 1 out of 50 or something like that come back with red flags that are concerning, otherwise it's just due diligence. I didn't read it as anything bad.

[Joxer_Daly]

Thanks for posting all that info, ss2k5.

 

Very positive (unsurprisingly) given that the impression I have is of outside commentators dismissing the Sox farm system as being poor. Obviously, he's going to be giving it all the good spin, but am I correct in having the impression that the Sox farm is definitely moving in the right direction, despite the detractors?

[3E8]

Thanks for posting all that info, ss2k5.

 

Very positive (unsurprisingly) given that the impression I have is of outside commentators dismissing the Sox farm system as being poor. Obviously, he's going to be giving it all the good spin, but am I correct in having the impression that the Sox farm is definitely moving in the right direction, despite the detractors?

There was nowhere to go but up. The "detractors" aren't too far off, our farm system is currently one of the worst in baseball. But we are moving in the right direction. We are spending more internationally, and beefing up our international scouting. Our amateur draft strategy has improved as well.

[Joxer_Daly]

There was nowhere to go but up. The "detractors" aren't too far off, our farm system is currently one of the worst in baseball. But we are moving in the right direction. We are spending more internationally, and beefing up our international scouting. Our amateur draft strategy has improved as well.

 

 

Ah, right. Jesus, seems like a fairly fundamental thing to do; to build upon solid foundations.

 

At least we're going in the right direction.

[EvilMonkey]

Thanks for the posting.

[southsider2k5]

More love for Jared Mitchell

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/...s-to-turn-heads

[Chicago White Sox]

More love for Jared Mitchell

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/...s-to-turn-heads

I still think this kid has a chance to be a special player. He doesn't turn 25 years old until October, so he's pretty much age appropriate for AAA, plus he really hasn't had that much development time given his injury. The physical tools remain there, even if his speed isn't quite as elite as it once was.

 

The kid is always going to strikeout a lot, as he takes a ton of pitches and as a result a ton of walks. He just needs to learn how to make adjustments so he can get his contact rate to a respectable level. Honestly, I have no problem at all with a high OBP/low AVG leadoff hitter with above-average power and speed. He just can't be Adam Dunn bad with the strikeouts, which is what he was last year, especially in AAA.

[caulfield12]

I still think this kid has a chance to be a special player. He doesn't turn 25 years old until October, so he's pretty much age appropriate for AAA, plus he really hasn't had that much development time given his injury. The physical tools remain there, even if his speed isn't quite as elite as it once was.

 

The kid is always going to strikeout a lot, as he takes a ton of pitches and as a result a ton of walks. He just needs to learn how to make adjustments so he can get his contact rate to a respectable level. Honestly, I have no problem at all with a high OBP/low AVG leadoff hitter with above-average power and speed. He just can't be Adam Dunn bad with the strikeouts, which is what he was last year, especially in AAA.

 

 

Just don't know if we can afford two similar players in DeAza and Mitchell at USCF.

 

Mitchell's probably going to end up being a 15-25 homer guy, but nowhere close to Carl Crawford's 50+ stolen bases.

 

As everyone knows, walks and K rates and putting up at an OBP of at least 330 will be the key.

 

He's definitely an exciting and dynamic player, and my hopes are much higher for him than Walker.

 

You could definitely see a Mitchell, Thompson and Hawkins "dream outfield" if all three of those guys can make contact, because the athletic and defensive tools are plus ones.

[peteward]

Courtney Hawkins. They were wanting to move Courtney up at the end of the year to challenge him, and the Kanny situation was "a bit different" so that is why they moved him to Winston-Salem. They wanted him to experience playoff baseball. He tricked "us by getting better". He is a tough kid who gets better as the lights get brighter. They want to see him at AA by the end of the year, if that doesn't happen that is OK. He will start this season at WS.

 

He has hit at the single A level pretty well, so given the comment that "He is a tough kid who gets better as the lights get brighter." I think the may send him up the ladder pretty quickly and that he certainly will be a late season call-up when the roster gets expanded.

No mention of Keon Barnum. I read he was injured and will be out for a few weeks but he is a prospect that

Sox fans hope could become a power hitting first basemen or a replacement for Dunn down the road.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Just don't know if we can afford two similar players in DeAza and Mitchell at USCF.

 

Mitchell's probably going to end up being a 15-25 homer guy, but nowhere close to Carl Crawford's 50+ stolen bases.

 

As everyone knows, walks and K rates and putting up at an OBP of at least 330 will be the key.

 

He's definitely an exciting and dynamic player, and my hopes are much higher for him than Walker.

 

You could definitely see a Mitchell, Thompson and Hawkins "dream outfield" if all three of those guys can make contact, because the athletic and defensive tools are plus ones.

If ADA stays healthy this season and there are 2 outfielders knocking on the door, it's entirely possible the team may decide he's the one to move. He's the oldest, the others have a long time pre-arb, and he'd be able to bring a guaranteed major league return.

 

If ADA doesn't stay healthy this year, then we may very well want the extra depth and use that as a way to ease one or two of these guys in.

[Chicago White Sox]

If ADA stays healthy this season and there are 2 outfielders knocking on the door, it's entirely possible the team may decide he's the one to move. He's the oldest, the others have a long time pre-arb, and he'd be able to bring a guaranteed major league return.

 

If ADA doesn't stay healthy this year, then we may very well want the extra depth and use that as a way to ease one or two of these guys in.

I personally think if Trayce Thompson shows that he's ready this year, then you trade De Aza in the offseason and go with Thompson in CF. All the scouting reports rave about his defense in CF and his bat would more valuable there.

 

Obviously you'd be down another left-handed bat and a leadoff hitter, but you could try to address those needs at other positions. I just think at some point we'll need to make room for some of these young OFs and De Aza is a guy who get you a nice return if he has another solid year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I personally think if Trayce Thompson shows that he's ready this year, then you trade De Aza in the offseason and go with Thompson in CF. All the scouting reports rave about his defense in CF and his bat would more valuable there.

 

Obviously you'd be down another left-handed bat and a leadoff hitter, but you could try to address those needs at other positions. I just think at some point we'll need to make room for some of these young OFs and De Aza is a guy who get you a nice return if he has another solid year.

Thompson is nowhere close to ready . Mitchell is the only one who looks like he can be ready but that's if he puts together a solid season at AAA where he improves his average somewhere above .280 which he hasn't even come close to doing for a full season yet.

 

The Sox will be lucky if any of the prospects in the outfield can even come close to being how good De Aza is.

[Chicago White Sox]

Thompson is nowhere close to ready . Mitchell is the only one who looks like he can be ready but that's if he puts together a solid season at AAA where he improves his average somewhere above .280 which he hasn't even come close to doing for a full season yet.

 

The Sox will be lucky if any of the prospects in the outfield can even come close to being how good De Aza is.

I actually disagree with your entire post.

 

1) I said if Thompson shows he's ready after the 2013 season, then I'd trade De Aza to open up a spot for Thompson. I'm definitely not saying he's ready now and I'm not even saying he will be ready after this season. My idea was simply conditional on his readiness. However, if you followed his development last year, you'd know Thompson was a much improved player in the 2nd half of his stint at A+ and while at AA. If he plays like that player this year, he'll be ready for the majors by 2014.

 

2) I still have hope for Mitchell, but I think Thompson actually passed him in term of development this past season. Thompson actually made adjustments offensively and improved as the year went on, while Mitchell started out fast but struggled significantly the rest of the year. Given the clear edge Thompson has defensively, I think Thompson has a much better chance of earning a job in our outfield in 2014 than Mitchell.

 

3) Mitchell doesn't have to hit .280 to be an effective player. He needs keep his walk rate high (~15%) first and foremost, without letting his K% rate get too crazy (over 30%). If he can do that, with his mix of speed and power, he could be very a dangerous leadoff hitter despite a low BA. Whether he can do that against advanced pitching remains to be seen, but if you're hoping he hits .280 you simply don't understand the type of player Jared Mitchell.

 

4) This is the point that bothers me the most. De Aza isn't that great of a player. He put up a .759 OPS last year and wasn't anything special in CF. Plus his SB % wasn't very good. Look, I think he's solid leadoff hitter and all-around player, since he can do a little bit of everything at a premium position. However, I think all four of our top OF prospects have higher ceilings than De Aza, but I'm just going to focus on one. IMO, given the value of Thompson's defense in CF, it won't take much offense from him to exceed De Aza's value as a player. And that's completely ignoring the fact that he's already demonstrated elite power and above average BB % as a 21 year old in A+ & AA. To think he has no chance of ever coming close to being De Az caliber player is crazy to me.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I actually disagree with your entire post.

 

1) I said if Thompson shows he's ready after the 2013 season, then I'd trade De Aza to open up a spot for Thompson. I'm definitely not saying he's ready now and I'm not even saying he will be ready after this season. My idea was simply conditional on his readiness. However, if you followed his development last year, you'd know Thompson was a much improved player in the 2nd half of his stint at A+ and while at AA. If he plays like that player this year, he'll be ready for the majors by 2014.

 

2) I still have hope for Mitchell, but I think Thompson actually passed him in term of development this past season. Thompson actually made adjustments offensively and improved as the year went on, while Mitchell started out fast but struggled significantly the rest of the year. Given the clear edge Thompson has defensively, I think Thompson has a much better chance of earning a job in our outfield in 2014 than Mitchell.

 

3) Mitchell doesn't have to hit .280 to be an effective player. He needs keep his walk rate high (~15%) first and foremost, without letting his K% rate get too crazy (over 30%). If he can do that, with his mix of speed and power, he could be very a dangerous leadoff hitter despite a low BA. Whether he can do that against advanced pitching remains to be seen, but if you're hoping he hits .280 you simply don't understand the type of player Jared Mitchell.

 

4) This is the point that bothers me the most. De Aza isn't that great of a player. He put up a .759 OPS last year and wasn't anything special in CF. Plus his SB % wasn't very good. Look, I think he's solid leadoff hitter and all-around player, since he can do a little bit of everything at a premium position. However, I think all four of our top OF prospects have higher ceilings than De Aza, but I'm just going to focus on one. IMO, given the value of Thompson's defense in CF, it won't take much offense from him to exceed De Aza's value as a player. And that's completely ignoring the fact that he's already demonstrated elite power and above average BB % as a 21 year old in A+ & AA. To think he has no chance of ever coming close to being De Az caliber player is crazy to me.

 

What exactly do you expect Thompson to do to show he's ready for a full time job in CF in 2014 ? He'll be starting the year at AA and would have to move to AAA and perform well in both places to even consider handing over CF to him in 2014. Most likely we're looking at 2015 unless he puts up some really good numbers. I still call that no where close to ready. And I didn't say he had "no chance of ever coming close to being" as good as De Aza so of course you'd think that was crazy. I said the Sox would be lucky if any of those prospects come close to being as good as De Aza.

 

I understand they all have higher ceilings but so do tons of prospects and as a Sox fan I hope they all reach those ceilings because Thompson surely has the highest one if he can cut back on his K's . De Aza played his 1st full season in the majors and he surely can be a better player than he is now. He's more than adequate in CF even if it isn't his position of choice. So lets say Thompson is ready for 2014 De Aza can be moved to LF . Lets face it Viciedo won't be there more than a few years anyway when Konerko retires so he'll be playing 1st base or DH'ing barring a trade.

 

As far as Mitchell goes I threw an arbitrary number out for what I'd like to see his batting average be thinking everything else ( power, K% OBP ,slugging) would improve if he does that. Mitchell will start the year at AAA so everything else being equal ( which you don't think is the case ) I'd still say Mitchell is closer to major league ready. I just think all prospects are suspect until they get to the bigs and show me something there which De Aza has already done.

 

I also think it's kind of crazy suggesting a trade down the road since so many things can happen between now and then. All your points are certainly valid but a year or 2 from now the Sox may not have any of the players we're discussing.

[Chicago White Sox]

Part of my reasoning to trade De Aza is to so while he still has good value. I don't think he'll be worth the cost long-term, especially in a corner, so if we can move him after the 2013 season while he he still has two arb years left, a team desperate for a leadoff hitter and/or CF may give up something of value for him. At some point, if we want to make the most of the asset, we either need to resign or trade him. And everyday we hold on to him and burn up his arb years the less valuable he becomes.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Part of my reasoning to trade De Aza is to so while he still has good value. I don't think he'll be worth the cost long-term, especially in a corner, so if we can move him after the 2013 season while he he still has two arb years left, a team desperate for a leadoff hitter and/or CF may give up something of value for him. At some point, if we want to make the most of the asset, we either need to resign or trade him. And everyday we hold on to him and burn up his arb years the less valuable he becomes.

 

I think it's extremely difficult to define a players future value. I understand that using advanced stats we'd like to think we can make this more scientific and easier to quantify a players skill set, but it is just not that cut and dried. I know a team like Tampa Bay has made the most out of what you are suggesting but they have not won a World Series yet and that is the most valuable thing of all. Right now and probably next year too DeAza is more valuable to the Sox winning then any of their prospects unless said prospects suddenly have dramatic increases in their production. Again I'd love to see your scenario come to fruition but if the Sox get to the World Series in the next year or 2 I think De Aza has a better chance to be a World Series hero than Thompson. That is the future value I am looking for.