One week into Spring Training 2012...

[macsandz]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-kn...an-people-think

[ScottyDo]

Haha I forgot to read the thread title and started reading the article. My first thought was "A scout says 100 losses....is that the same guy who said that last year? Didn't he learn his lesson?"

Edited March 1, 2013 by ScottyDo

[macsandz]

Haha I forgot to read the thread title and started reading the article. My first thought was "A scout says 100 losses....is that the same guy who said that last year? Didn't he learn his lesson?"

 

HaHa Scotty.

 

Seriously, KW made some bold statements in support of his squad and was proven pretty accurate. I like it.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just want know how a scout can be so f***ing wrong.

[ScottyDo]

I just want know how a scout can be so f***ing wrong.

They assess individual players so any projections about wins/losses are just barely more valid as yours or mine. But how the second scout got it so very wrong on individual players? Well, he's citing body language so it sounds like he's a meatball scout, if there is such a thing (and I sure think there is).

[southsider2k5]

I just want know how a scout can be so f***ing wrong.

 

It happens all of the time in baseball. Go back and look at any draft's first round, or even a typical BA Top 100 for any particular year.

[Chicago White Sox]

It happens all of the time in baseball. Go back and look at any draft's first round, or even a typical BA Top 100 for any particular year.

I'm referring to the scout who said he thought we could lose 100 games last year. Two teams lost 100 games last year, the Cubs & the Astros, and I think most of us all thought those two teams would be in the bottom five. How anyone could think the Sox were that caliber of bad coming into last season, especially someone who is paid to evaluate baseball players, blows my mind.

[caulfield12]

Haha.

 

I thought it was for 2013 and expected him to be touting/hyping Conor Gillaspie, Angel Sanchez and Bryan Anderson.

[Paint it Black]

I'm referring to the scout who said he thought we could lose 100 games last year. Two teams lost 100 games last year, the Cubs & the Astros, and I think most of us all thought those two teams would be in the bottom five. How anyone could think the Sox were that caliber of bad coming into last season, especially someone who is paid to evaluate baseball players, blows my mind.

 

 

I mean, the point it, there were a TON of questions. Nearly everything went right last year. It happens. And to be frank, if Detroit had played up to their capability last year, it's really a moot point about last years season.

[Balta1701]

Nearly everything went right last year.

Really? Was I the only one who saw our opening day starter be terrible and then go down for the season with surgery?

 

Ask yourself what would happen to any number of other teams if they had exactly that sentence happen to them. That's not "Nearly everything" going right, that's a huge loss. That's 3, 4 wins we might have lost. That's the margin between us and a playoff spot. And it forced trades that depleted our bench for good measure.

 

If you want to reply "yeah but I said nearly", then let's throw in our opening day 3b's back going out, our 1b's wrist, the month we lost from our opening day CF, the time we had 7 rookies in our bullpen. A lot of stuff went wrong last year. Our GM and farm system just overcame enough of it to keep us in the race.

[Chicago White Sox]

 

I mean, the point it, there were a TON of questions. Nearly everything went right last year. It happens. And to be frank, if Detroit had played up to their capability last year, it's really a moot point about last years season.

While I disagree that everything went right last year, I think we can agree that a lot of things went wrong in 2011 and we only lost 83 games. To expect all those same things to go bad again in 2012 was foolish enough, but to expect the team to get 17 games worse on top of it is just embarrassing. I'm not saying people should have been optimistic about last year's team, but no MLB scout should be that wrong when evaluating an entire team.

[caulfield12]

Really? Was I the only one who saw our opening day starter be terrible and then go down for the season with surgery?

 

Ask yourself what would happen to any number of other teams if they had exactly that sentence happen to them. That's not "Nearly everything" going right, that's a huge loss. That's 3, 4 wins we might have lost. That's the margin between us and a playoff spot. And it forced trades that depleted our bench for good measure.

 

If you want to reply "yeah but I said nearly", then let's throw in our opening day 3b's back going out, our 1b's wrist, the month we lost from our opening day CF, the time we had 7 rookies in our bullpen. A lot of stuff went wrong last year. Our GM and farm system just overcame enough of it to keep us in the race.

 

Except for much of last season, Quintana arguably pitched better than Danks was projected to...at least until he wore down the final 6 weeks or so, he was our ace for a stretch there, even though he didn't always get the wins to prove it.

 

Rios, Dunn (to some) and Peavy all outperformed expectations, as did AJ, by a wide margin.

 

We're basically stuck with that 75-85 win team for the time being.

 

For whatever reason, I don't honestly expect Keppinger to repeat his 2012 performance. Everyone's well past being trying to be convinced Gordon Beckham has finally turned the corner and is back to 2009 levels.

[LittleHurt05]

Except for much of last season, Quintana arguably pitched better than Danks was projected to...at least until he wore down the final 6 weeks or so, he was our ace for a stretch there, even though he didn't always get the wins to prove it.

 

Rios, Dunn (to some) and Peavy all outperformed expectations, as did AJ, by a wide margin.

 

We're basically stuck with that 75-85 win team for the time being.

 

For whatever reason, I don't honestly expect Keppinger to repeat his 2012 performance. Everyone's well past being trying to be convinced Gordon Beckham has finally turned the corner and is back to 2009 levels.

 

I think it's obvious what reason that is.

[southsider2k5]

I think it's obvious what reason that is.

 

He is on the White Sox now and he is doomed to fail.

[Paint it Black]

Really? Was I the only one who saw our opening day starter be terrible and then go down for the season with surgery?

 

Ask yourself what would happen to any number of other teams if they had exactly that sentence happen to them. That's not "Nearly everything" going right, that's a huge loss. That's 3, 4 wins we might have lost. That's the margin between us and a playoff spot. And it forced trades that depleted our bench for good measure.

 

If you want to reply "yeah but I said nearly", then let's throw in our opening day 3b's back going out, our 1b's wrist, the month we lost from our opening day CF, the time we had 7 rookies in our bullpen. A lot of stuff went wrong last year. Our GM and farm system just overcame enough of it to keep us in the race.

 

Hense the word nearly. My point is you had nearly every major factor on this team go right (Dunn, Rios, Peavy). And besides, the luck of Quintana for much of the season in effect cancels out some of the "Danks went down" thing. Plus, (per BP) Danks' highest WARP was 3.6 which was in 2008. Can't really throw 4 extra wins on him when he has never done it. You're simply naming 1 injury (lets be real here, Danks is a good 3rd starter. He's not a "#1" if we're defining it). All teams go through this. Hell the Tigers lost their starting "catcher" / DH in VMart for the entire season.

 

And the bullpen thing doesn't fly with me either. That's exactly another thing that went RIGHT for them is having a bunch of rookies come up and play well.

[Paint it Black]

While I disagree that everything went right last year, I think we can agree that a lot of things went wrong in 2011 and we only lost 83 games. To expect all those same things to go bad again in 2012 was foolish enough, but to expect the team to get 17 games worse on top of it is just embarrassing. I'm not saying people should have been optimistic about last year's team, but no MLB scout should be that wrong when evaluating an entire team.

Fair points. I really like your angle here and willing to agree with this.