FanGraphs Positional Power rankings thread

[Eminor3rd]

For the second year, FanGraphs is previewing teams by ranking them at each position. I thought it would be fun and appropriate to post the White Sox sections in a single thread as they are published. I will try to edit the main post of the thread to include each as it is released, but if I can't, I'll just post them in line.

 

CA: #19

1B: #12

2B: #20

3B: #23

SS: #16

CF: #13

RF: #21

LF: #25

DH: #12 (of 15)

SP: #8

RP: #7

 

Avg Rank (counting DH as #24): #17

 

First up is catchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...nkings-catcher/

 

#19 White Sox

 

Name WAR

Tyler Flowers 2.4

Hector Gimenez 0.7

Josh Phegley 0.1

Total 3.2

 

There’s not much to say about Hector Gimenez or Josh Phegley. Certainly not that you’d find worth reading. Tyler Flowers is the player of intrigue, being not old and possessing a .484 minor-league slugging percentage. Flowers swings hard and misses a lot, and that’s not a characteristic that’s going to be ironed out over time. That’s going to stick with Flowers for as long as he plays. But his power is real and it should look even better in Chicago half the time. In limited big-league trials Flowers has posted a .183 ISO. He doesn’t seem to be a defensive liability. If Flowers can keep his strikeouts even somewhat in control, he should give the White Sox some stability at the position. He won’t be great and his backups will be worse, but the White Sox could get enough production to be satisfied.

 

Next, first basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-first-base/

 

#12 White Sox

 

Name WAR

Paul Konerko 2.6

Adam Dunn 0.2

Tyler Flowers 0.1

Total 700 2.9

 

Paul Konerko is finally starting to decline, but he’s still very good, at least with the bat. Even with his power dropping, his approach is still good enough that he manages to strike out at a remarkably low rate. Despite some injury issues last year, he managed nearly 600 plate appearances, so the playing time distribution is not all that crazy for him. Adam Dunn will probably have to see time at first at some point. After a nice start to 2012, Dunn tailed off, but can still deliver OK-ish production. I doubt Tyler Flowers will see much time at first base, but given Konerko’s age and Dunn’s “skills,” he is probably a fair approximation for whichever players the White Sox would have to put at first base in lieu of the other two.

 

Second basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-second-base-2/

 

#20 White Sox

Name WAR

Gordon Beckham 2.0

Jeff Keppinger 0.1

Angel Sanchez 0.1

Carlos Sanchez 0.1

Total 2.3

 

In 2009, just one year after the White Sox selected him with the eigth pick of the 2008 draft, Gordon Beckham came up and hit .270/.347/.460 (109 wRC+) with 14 home runs in just 103 games. In the three years since, the White Sox have been waiting for that Gordon Beckham to show up again.

 

In the three years since, Beckham has posted wRC+ marks of 86, 71 and 79. The power he flashed has never materialized; his .137 ISO in 2012 was his highest since his .190 rookie mark.

 

Beckham did take one definitive step forward in 2012, though, as he set a career best with an 8.3 percent swinging strike rate. He struck out in just 15.3 percnt of plate appearances, in line with his 2009 rate. A .254 BABIP prevented it from translating into better results, but this improved contact is the basis behind his projected .251 average (and the improved on-base and slugging the extra singles provide). It isn’t what was hoped for when Beckham first broke into the majors, but if Beckham can keep making contact, he’ll be semi-useful for the White Sox this year.

 

Third basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-third-base/

 

#23 White Sox

Name WAR

Jeff Keppinger 2.2

Conor Gillaspie 0.3

Brent Morel 0.0

Carlos Sanchez -0.2

Total 2.3

 

If you’re a White Sox fan and you’re reading this and thinking, ‘Gee, I guess that Keppinger acquisition didn’t really improve our standing at third base all that much,’ keep in mind that last season Chicago was one of four teams that posted a negative WAR at third base. So, you know, it could be worse. Keppinger is no one’s idea of a star, and 2012 was almost assuredly the best season he will have in his baseball career, but fortunately Brent Morel set the bar really, really low last season. Speaking of Morel, he appears to be on the outs, as Gillaspie has seemingly leapfrogged him on the depth chart.

 

Shortstops: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ings-shortstop/

 

#16 White Sox

 

Name WAR

Alexei Ramirez 2.5

Angel Sanchez 0.3

Total 2.8

 

There was a time that Ramirez was a legitimate star, even if nobody knew about it. Dave Cameron once wrote about how Ramirez might’ve been the best shortstop in the American League. But last year, though Ramirez was healthy, he lost almost all of his walks and he additionally lost a chunk of his power without making any gains. Now he’s more into his 30s and we may simply be observing the decline of a quality player. The projections see a bit of an offensive bounceback, which the White Sox would appreciate, but Ramirez probably isn’t the player he was. Eventually, they never are. Ramirez is simply fine enough.

 

Centerfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...s-center-field/

 

#13 White Sox

 

Name WAR

Alejandro De Aza 3.3

DeWayne Wise 0.1

Total 3.4

 

The ChiSox have a knack for turning nothing into something, but usually on the pitching side. De Aza, 28, went from Triple-A fodder and up-and-down guy to everyday center fielder last summer, stealing bases (26-for-38, 68.4%) and drawing walks (8.0 BB%) offensively and playing the position with aplomb on defense. The 34-year-old Wise is the obvious backup since the team seems committed to keeping Alex Rios in center, so De Aza is the clear starter unless he suddenly reverts back to his pre-2011 form. That would make things a little messy on the south side.

 

Rightfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-right-field-2/

 

#21 White Sox

Name WAR

Alex Rios 1.6

Jordan Danks 0.1

Total 1.6

 

Alex Rios has had a roller coaster of a career. Both the hero and the goat and sometimes for the same team, he’s now coming off a strong showing in the World Baseball Classic if that means anything to you. It’s hard to put stock in these things, even if he put up a career-best 125 wRC+ last year, because all you have to do is remember back to 2011, when his offense was a career-worst 41% worse than league average. And it’s not easy to see why Rios goes in and out of the tank — some years he has good power, some years he has little power. It might all be less worrisome if he had some patience to fall back on (he doesn’t), or if he was a positive in the field no matter what was going on at the plate (he isn’t). He should be good — in which case he could outproduce this ranking fairly easily — but if he isn’t, Jordan Danks and his strikeouts won’t be enough to make the Chicago faithful forget. There’s a lot of risk here.

 

Leftfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-left-field/

 

#25 White Sox

 

Name WAR

Dayan Viciedo 1.4

DeWayne Wise 0.1

Jordan Danks 0.1

Total 1.6

 

One of the more entertaining bats to watch in batting practice, Viciedo possesses unquestioned power. But his work against right handed pitchers suppresses his value considerably. Viciedo bludgeons lefties, with a .350/.391/.642 line against them in 2012 — but he managed just .225/.271/.380 against right handed pitchers, who he faced over 400 times last year. Still just 24, there’s certainly room for improvement for the stocky Cuban slugger and the projection above reflects that. He’s expected to improve across the board and if manages to keep himself on the field for the bulk of the season, he could provide the White Sox for 2+ WAR.

 

DeWayne Wise and Jordan Danks will back up all outfield positions, and since they’re both left handed, it’s possible they spell Viciedo when there’s a particularly unpleasant right hander on the hill, and there are many in the American League. If Viciedo continues to develop, the White Sox should find themselves several slots higher in 2014.

 

Designated Hitters: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ignated-hitter/

 

#12 White Sox

Name WAR

Adam Dunn 1.1

Dayan Viciedo 0.1

Paul Konerko 0.1

Total 1.3

 

Again, in the White Sox, we have a DH position that I — in my fiery, beating heart — prefer in real life, but in the Projection Systems Life, we must confront Dunn’s increasing strikeout rate, decreasing OBP — his startling 2011 season, his underwhelming 2012 bounce-back (an un-Dunnian 114 wRC+) — the ticking clock of Dunn’s career, the tick tock.

 

Dunn is 33 with a skillset that ages poorly, and his most likely backup — defensive liability Dayan Viciedo — has yet to prove himself against righties. This is not a bad DH situation for the White Sox, but it is not above the DH crowd.

 

Starting Pitchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...-pitchers-1-15/

 

#8 White Sox

Name WAR

Chris Sale 4.9

Jake Peavy 3.4

Gavin Floyd 2.8

Jose Quintana 1.7

Dylan Axelrod 1.2

John Danks 1.3

Hector Santiago 0.4

Simon Castro 0.1

Total 15.8

 

If Chris Sale lives up to this projection, the White Sox could be sneaky playoff contenders again, even with all the question marks behind him. While Don Cooper and the training staff have a long history of keeping pitchers healthy, there are a number of question marks in the rotation, with John Danks’ ability to contribute chief among those.

 

Luckily for the White Sox, these forecasts don’t think that there’s really much of a drop-off in going from Danks to Dylan Axelrod, giving them very similar forecasts across the board. Unfortunately, with Danks on the shelf to start the season, the White Sox are a bit thin behind Axelrod, and another injury could create some real problems. Thus, Cooper and Herm Schneider will need to keep working their voodoo to keep the current five healthy as long as possible, at least until Danks is able to contribute again. Sale gives them a real weapon up front, but if they’re going to keep pace with the rest of the AL contenders, they need their rotation to be strong all the way through.

 

Relief Pitching: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-pitchers-1-15/

 

#7 White Sox

Name WAR

Addison Reed 1.0

Matt Thornton 1.3

Jesse Crain 0.5

Matt Lindstrom 0.6

Nate Jones 45.0 0.3

Donnie Veal 0.1

Dylan Axelrod 0.0

The Others -0.1

Total 3.7

 

The White Sox bullpen has conspired in recent seasons to produce no shortage of amusement. For years, it seemed obvious that uber-effective left-hander Matt Thornton ought to be given the closer role, but a combination of Bobby Jenks, Ozzie Guillen, and Thornton’s own ineffectiveness when given the opportunity have made that contingency less and less likely. This past season, with Robin Ventura in his first year as manager, it was a different scenario: despite the presence of the young and hard-throwing Addison Reed, Ventura named screwballer Hector Santiago as the team’s closer. By May, however, that had changed, and Reed went on to perform quite ably (55.0 IP, 99 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR).

 

Despite the handwringing sometimes associated with the club’s bullpen, the South Siders have produced some of the league’s highest-quality relief innings over the last five seasons, producing the seventh-lowest park-adjusted ERA over that time and second-highest overall WAR — while having success with projects like J.J. Putz (who had been injured irrecovably, it seemed) and Sergio Santos (who was converted from the infield).

 

With pitching coach Don Cooper around, and the club’s highly praised training staff, there’s little reason to think that 2013 will be much different. Most of last year’s personnel returns, with Addison Reed, Matt Thornton, and Jesse Crain (provided he gets over some recent issues with his hip) assuming the bulk of the high-leverage innings. The success of Nate Jones (71.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) was another pleasant development for the 2012 White Sox, and the right-hander is also likely to see his share of appearances.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

This catcher ranking is surprisingly high to me -- I figured we'd be more like #25 or so. But the good news is that these are based on projection systems rather than opinion, so I'd say that is pretty solid for ol' T Flow.

Edited March 14, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Princess Dye]

People get down on Flowers, but power like that with defense? Absolutely play him and reap the benefits of that cheap labor. AJ earned way too much to justify defense that substandard

[The Ultimate Champion]

People get down on Flowers, but power like that with defense? Absolutely play him and reap the benefits of that cheap labor. AJ earned way too much to justify defense that substandard

It's going to be hilarious watching the reactions you guys have once you realize that we're still going to be run on. You all have been underrating AJ's contributions for years. Catching is the hardest position on the field to find a good player.

[caulfield12]

It's going to be hilarious watching the reactions you guys have once you realize that we're still going to be run on. You all have been underrating AJ's contributions for years. Catching is the hardest position on the field to find a good player.

 

 

Flowers was excellent last year throwing out runners, and Gimenez is probably even better.

 

Except when Floyd's on the mound, this isn't a huge concern, compared to his ability to make contact and hit at at least .220/.230ish.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I'd say they have Flowers pretty accurate. He should be able to put up around a 2.0 WAR defensively. His power and decent walk rate means he should be able to produce at or slightly above Major League average offensively. Combined I realistically see a 2.5 - 3 WAR for him, which I am more than content with. Maybe even higher.

Edited March 14, 2013 by lasttriptotulsa

[farmteam]

I've thought for about two years now that if you let Flowers play everyday, he would hit about .260 with 20-25 homeruns.

[caulfield12]

I've thought for about two years now that if you let Flowers play everyday, he would hit about .260 with 20-25 homeruns.

 

 

We'll see. KW said exactly the same thing about Brian Anderson. I would be quite shocked by anything over .240.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I've thought for about two years now that if you let Flowers play everyday, he would hit about .260 with 20-25 homeruns.

 

I'll give ya the 20-25 homeruns, but .260 seems a little high at this point. I see him being around .230-.240 this year.

[southsider2k5]

We'll see. KW said exactly the same thing about Brian Anderson. I would be quite shocked by anything over .240.

 

Anderson never did play every day...

[Eminor3rd]

I think it'll also be interesting to see how Baseball Prospectus rates his pitch framing over a full season. They tend to make seemingly wild claims about how many wins a C can add through good pitch framing, and though they are the only ones that seem to believe in the totals, it stands to reason that they are at least finding a way to rank that component of C defense, even if they overstate the case.

[RockRaines]

Anderson never did play every day...

Nor should he have.

[farmteam]

I'll give ya the 20-25 homeruns, but .260 seems a little high at this point. I see him being around .230-.240 this year.

We shall see. Not even basing this on anything particular, he just always struck me as one of those guys whose average was affected more than most by not playing everyday.

[Balta1701]

Nor should he have.

yes he should have.

 

I'll go to my grave saying that the difference in center field defense down the stretch in 2006 was worth enough losses for this team to miss the playoffs.

[ScottyDo]

It's going to be hilarious watching the reactions you guys have once you realize that we're still going to be run on. You all have been underrating AJ's contributions for years. Catching is the hardest position on the field to find a good player.

AJ was an objectively poor thrower. Flowers played with the same pitchers in the same year and performed better. Of course we'll still be run on -- nobody's saying he's Ivan Rodriguez -- but the runners will be thrown out at a higher clip. I know you miss AJ, but it doesn't do any good to pretend he was a decent defender. He blocked balls really well for several years, but there is absolutely no case to be made for him being a good CS man.

[caulfield12]

AJ was an objectively poor thrower. Flowers played with the same pitchers in the same year and performed better. Of course we'll still be run on -- nobody's saying he's Ivan Rodriguez -- but the runners will be thrown out at a higher clip. I know you miss AJ, but it doesn't do any good to pretend he was a decent defender. He blocked balls really well for several years, but there is absolutely no case to be made for him being a good CS man.

 

Last year especially, he was terrible and fell into lazy/bad habits with blocking pitches. Part of it was just poor technique.

 

I'd swear it cost us at least a couple of games, although obviously the offense made up for it, overall.

[Balta1701]

Last year especially, he was terrible and fell into lazy/bad habits with blocking pitches. Part of it was just poor technique.

 

I'd swear it cost us at least a couple of games, although obviously the offense made up for it, overall.

AJ had 8 passed balls and 54 wild pitches last year, for a total of 62. That's the worst year of his career on that, was never above 54 PB + WP before. Last year it was particularly from the wild pitches (he'd never given up more than 49 of those in a season before, and that year he only had 3 passed balls).

[Eminor3rd]

Bump for the addition of first basemen. I expected us to be a touch higher than #12, but I can admit that I probably overrate Paulie. However, it is very interesting to note that we're substantially higher than KC and CLE.

[Chicago White Sox]

Bump for the addition of first basemen. I expected us to be a touch higher than #12, but I can admit that I probably overrate Paulie. However, it is very interesting to note that we're substantially higher than KC and CLE.

Lol at the Cubs being #5. I think Rizzo will be a very good player, but I expect some more growing pains, at least in 2013.

[Eminor3rd]

Lol at the Cubs being #5. I think Rizzo will be a very good player, but I expect some more growing pains, at least in 2013.

 

I thought the same thing -- though I think it's as much a product of first base being relatively weak league-wide at the moment.

[caulfield12]

Bump for the addition of first basemen. I expected us to be a touch higher than #12, but I can admit that I probably overrate Paulie. However, it is very interesting to note that we're substantially higher than KC and CLE.

 

 

Hosmer's going to have to put up a sub 700 OPS 2013 for anyone to give up on that talent....especially with his plate discipline.

 

Even then, guys like Carlos Pena have hung around and finally matured. Or, on his own team, Alex Gordon.

[Eminor3rd]

Hosmer's going to have to put up a sub 700 OPS 2013 for anyone to give up on that talent....especially with his plate discipline.

 

Even then, guys like Carlos Pena have hung around and finally matured. Or, on his own team, Alex Gordon.

 

Agreed -- but these numbers are based on a blend from projections systems like ZiPS, only the playing time is subjective. So it's not like this is the result of some writer drooling on Hosmer or Rizzo's upside.

 

So, not arguing with you, just interesting that the systems aren't just blindly assuming improvement from young guys. Well, maybe they are on Rizzo.

[Chicago White Sox]

I thought the same thing -- though I think it's as much a product of first base being relatively weak league-wide at the moment.

I'm wondering how much these projections adjust for league specific variances in the minors. The Pacific Coast League is a significant hitters league, so you really have to scale offensive stats back, especially when comparing a PCL player to someone in the International League.

 

You'd think these systems would adjust for that though.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm wondering how much these projections adjust for league specific variances in the minors. The Pacific Coast League is a significant hitters league, so you really have to scale offensive stats back, especially when comparing a PCL player to someone in the International League.

 

You'd think these systems would adjust for that though.

 

I know that a lot of systems use minor league equivalencies, but there's a lot of opposition to those because they don't tend to be very accurate. I think ZiPS favors comps much more than equivalencies, but I could be totally wrong on that. No idea on Steamer.

Edited March 14, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

Bump for the addition of second and third basemen.

 

I'm surprised at how high our second base rank is, but a little surprised at how low third base is. When I look at everything, though, both rankings make sense. There's a huge pile of crap under Beckham, and it makes sense that the projection systems don't see Keppinger repeating his career year. Still, the write-up makes a good point that although Keppinger may likely only produce 2-3 wins, that's a 2-3 win upgrade over last year, which is huge.