FanGraphs Positional Power rankings thread

[Eminor3rd]

Bump for the addition of SS and CF. These both seem about right to me, though I'm a believer that Alexei will bounce back and be a top ten guy.

 

I also added a running summary list that looks like this:

 

CA: #19

1B: #12

2B: #20

3B: #23

SS: #16

CF: #13

RF:

LF:

SP:

RP:

 

So far we look very, uh, middle of the pack.

[witesoxfan]

Bump for the addition of SS and CF. These both seem about right to me, though I'm a believer that Alexei will bounce back and be a top ten guy.

 

I also added a running summary list that looks like this:

 

CA: #19

1B: #12

2B: #20

3B: #23

SS: #16

CF: #13

RF:

LF:

SP:

RP:

 

So far we look very, uh, middle of the pack.

 

Pitching will be top 10 for both (or at the very least, should be). RF could be top 10 too. LF will be middle of the pack to low 20s. All told, it will be a team that should be projected to win 85 games with a high floor (I really don't see this team losing 80 games unless there are significant injuries) with some, but not a lot, of room to grow. The 4 biggest areas for improvement come at 2B, 3B, SS, and LF, and I think LF is the only one that could be overall significant (talking 3+ wins added...I see 3B as maybe 2 wins, 3 at the most).

[southsider2k5]

Pitching will be top 10 for both (or at the very least, should be). RF could be top 10 too. LF will be middle of the pack to low 20s. All told, it will be a team that should be projected to win 85 games with a high floor (I really don't see this team losing 80 games unless there are significant injuries) with some, but not a lot, of room to grow. The 4 biggest areas for improvement come at 2B, 3B, SS, and LF, and I think LF is the only one that could be overall significant (talking 3+ wins added...I see 3B as maybe 2 wins, 3 at the most).

 

I too have expectations for Viciedo this year. His history seems to show a nice jump when he sees a league for the second time.

[Eminor3rd]

I too have expectations for Viciedo this year. His history seems to show a nice jump when he sees a league for the second time.

 

For him it all comes down to pitch recognition, I think. Toward the end of last year it looked like he was making conscious effort to be more selective, but that he was just purely guessing. I don't question his ability to develop a better approach, but I do question his ability to actually recognize what's being thrown to him.

[chw42]

Pitching will be top 10 for both (or at the very least, should be). RF could be top 10 too. LF will be middle of the pack to low 20s. All told, it will be a team that should be projected to win 85 games with a high floor (I really don't see this team losing 80 games unless there are significant injuries) with some, but not a lot, of room to grow. The 4 biggest areas for improvement come at 2B, 3B, SS, and LF, and I think LF is the only one that could be overall significant (talking 3+ wins added...I see 3B as maybe 2 wins, 3 at the most).

 

Everybody hates Rios, so I doubt we'll get top 10 for RF.

[LittleHurt05]

Everybody hates Rios, so I doubt we'll get top 10 for RF.

 

But he just hit a big homerun?

[peteward]

The rankings are just opinions based on statistics and projections based on prior years and various subjective factors.

 

I don't get how pass balls are added to wild pitches when evaluating a catcher.

One is an error on the pitcher and the other on the catcher. Is this some sort of attempt to

diminish AJ's defense? That would be ironic because there will be plenty of pitches thrown

outside of Flowers reach that he will not get to because of his size and lack of mobility -- pitches that another catcher, even AJ at his advanced age, would block or catch.

 

So White Sox do not have many position players that are in the top ten, but certainly

Alexei Ramirez and Konerko are arguably in the mix, depending on who is do the rating

or what source one chooses to cite. That is why Detroit will walk away with the Division according to most baseball

prognosticators and Cub fans.

 

As far as Flowers, he does not even have a full season as starting catcher to gauge his performance or his durability.

He has been and is a borderline starting catcher/back-up catcher, at least until he proves he can handle the job for a full season. He11, he can't even stay in there this Spring without a sore back cropping up in that brutally cold Arizona weather.

 

[Steve9347]

I like how the Alexei writeup is exactly what I've been saying and getting flamed for - that's cute.

[Eminor3rd]

The rankings are just opinions based on statistics and projections based on prior years and various subjective factors.

 

These aren't opinions at all though, these are rankings based on mathematical projections. The only subjective part is the playing time breakdown.

[witesoxfan]

AJ Pierzynski is listed at 6'3, 235

Tyler Flowers is listed at 6'4, 245

 

Tyler Flowers is not some giant behemoth who towers over AJ Pierzynski. For all intents and purposes, they are essentially the same exact size. The biggest difference I have ever seen is that Flowers has a bigger butt. That's about it.

 

Add to it that he's younger and has fresher knees, and I would almost guarantee he allows fewers passed balls plus wild pitches this year. I don't worry about a little back twinge in Spring Training.

[cabiness42]

AJ Pierzynski is listed at 6'3, 235

Tyler Flowers is listed at 6'4, 245

 

Tyler Flowers is not some giant behemoth who towers over AJ Pierzynski. For all intents and purposes, they are essentially the same exact size. The biggest difference I have ever seen is that Flowers has a bigger butt. That's about it.

 

Add to it that he's younger and has fresher knees, and I would almost guarantee he allows fewers passed balls plus wild pitches this year. I don't worry about a little back twinge in Spring Training.

 

That's a little bit creepy there.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I don't get how pass balls are added to wild pitches when evaluating a catcher.

One is an error on the pitcher and the other on the catcher. Is this some sort of attempt to

diminish AJ's defense? That would be ironic because there will be plenty of pitches thrown

outside of Flowers reach that he will not get to because of his size and lack of mobility -- pitches that another catcher, even AJ at his advanced age, would block or catch.

 

Better catchers will stop more wild pitches because they're better, even if the mistake was on the pitcher. Think about how people around here like to give Paul Konerko credit for scoops.

 

It's the same reason errors aren't enough alone to rate defense -- what does and what doesn't happen are both important. Derek Jeter wins gold gloves for making only 8 errors a year while Alexei makes 18, but Alexei Ramirez routinely makes 100-150 more infield assists than Jeter because of the massive difference in range. Think of preventing wild pitches as a proxy for range as a catcher.

Edited March 18, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

That's a little bit creepy there.

 

Ha. I'm obviously not actively staring at their asses or anything, but Flowers has a monster trunk from which a lot of his power is generated. AJ's power is much more quick wrists and sending the bat through the zone quickly (which is why he can make contact like he does) while Flowers comes from drive from his legs, which is why his bat speed is slower, he'll strike out more, but he'll also hit more home runs. He generates all kinds of power from those legs, and if he didn't have them, he'd be a 6'4, 215 and he'd go by the name Cole Armstrong.

[Jake]

I'm interested in their thoughts on Alexei. He had some important downward stats last year, but he was coming off of a career year value-wise. He could very well be near the top next year and his placement on that list seems like a worst case scenario, which isn't that bad.

 

They talk about ADA reverting to his "pre-2011" form -- what the hell is that? playing in the minor leagues? He had no track record until the White Sox gave him a shot and he's done well since. I think he's a candidate for regression (though his finish to the season dropped his numbers quite a bit) but that was a stupid statement.

 

As far as 3B goes, it seems that it is just a fairly deep position in the league. Kep will do a decent job and be a HUGE improvement. I think there is some chance that they overrated Kep and underrated Gillaspie, but that's just a hunch on my part. Some platooning should benefit both of their numbers greatly.

 

2B seems to be on the money, though maybe on the optimistic side.

[Jake]

Ha. I'm obviously not actively staring at their asses or anything, but Flowers has a monster trunk from which a lot of his power is generated. AJ's power is much more quick wrists and sending the bat through the zone quickly (which is why he can make contact like he does) while Flowers comes from drive from his legs, which is why his bat speed is slower, he'll strike out more, but he'll also hit more home runs. He generates all kinds of power from those legs, and if he didn't have them, he'd be a 6'4, 215 and he'd go by the name Cole Armstrong.

 

I always think of T-Flow's massive round belly that he started sporting early last year. I don't think he has it anymore.

[peteward]

'

Hopefully Flowers will prove to be durable over the course of the season.

 

"White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers is out of the lineup for a second consecutive day because of lower back stiffness. Flowers said his back tightened up on him Friday morning.

While Flowers' tone was optimistic, there is always cause for concern with back issues, especially for a catcher. The Sox open the season in 16 days.

Flowers was maintaining a sense of humor when asked how it affected his range of motion.

"I've never had much," the 6-4, 245-pounder said.

 

Flowers out again with stiff lower back

 

Flowers reminds me of Toby Hall, a very nice fellow that would always oblige with autographs, could occasionally hit for power when he connected. but would never be mistaken for Fisk or AJ.

Edited March 18, 2013 by southside_hitman

[Heads22]

Ha. I'm obviously not actively staring at their asses or anything, but Flowers has a monster trunk from which a lot of his power is generated. AJ's power is much more quick wrists and sending the bat through the zone quickly (which is why he can make contact like he does) while Flowers comes from drive from his legs, which is why his bat speed is slower, he'll strike out more, but he'll also hit more home runs. He generates all kinds of power from those legs, and if he didn't have them, he'd be a 6'4, 215 and he'd go by the name Cole Armstrong.

 

 

It would seem that wite likes big butts and he cannot lie.

[caulfield12]

I'm interested in their thoughts on Alexei. He had some important downward stats last year, but he was coming off of a career year value-wise. He could very well be near the top next year and his placement on that list seems like a worst case scenario, which isn't that bad.

 

They talk about ADA reverting to his "pre-2011" form -- what the hell is that? playing in the minor leagues? He had no track record until the White Sox gave him a shot and he's done well since. I think he's a candidate for regression (though his finish to the season dropped his numbers quite a bit) but that was a stupid statement.

 

As far as 3B goes, it seems that it is just a fairly deep position in the league. Kep will do a decent job and be a HUGE improvement. I think there is some chance that they overrated Kep and underrated Gillaspie, but that's just a hunch on my part. Some platooning should benefit both of their numbers greatly.

 

2B seems to be on the money, though maybe on the optimistic side.

 

 

I'm 99% sure that Gillaspie wasn't even a factor under consideration in that rating at the time it was made.

[chw42]

I'm interested in their thoughts on Alexei. He had some important downward stats last year, but he was coming off of a career year value-wise. He could very well be near the top next year and his placement on that list seems like a worst case scenario, which isn't that bad.

 

They talk about ADA reverting to his "pre-2011" form -- what the hell is that? playing in the minor leagues? He had no track record until the White Sox gave him a shot and he's done well since. I think he's a candidate for regression (though his finish to the season dropped his numbers quite a bit) but that was a stupid statement.

 

As far as 3B goes, it seems that it is just a fairly deep position in the league. Kep will do a decent job and be a HUGE improvement. I think there is some chance that they overrated Kep and underrated Gillaspie, but that's just a hunch on my part. Some platooning should benefit both of their numbers greatly.

 

2B seems to be on the money, though maybe on the optimistic side.

 

Alejandro will be Alejandro. Decent lead-off man and decent defender. I don't see him reverting. He's usually pretty good at not going into deep slumps. He only had one kind of bad month last year where he failed to put up an OBP over .300. He had a .323 in April and a .340 in August, but the rest of his numbers looked very good.

 

His first half numbers and second half numbers were also very similar. He actually hit better in the second half (believe it or not).

Edited March 19, 2013 by chw42

[Balta1701]

Alejandro will be Alejandro. Decent lead-off man and decent defender. I don't see him reverting. He's usually pretty good at not going into deep slumps. He only had one kind of bad month last year where he failed to put up an OBP over .300. He had a .323 in April and a .340 in August, but the rest of his numbers looked very good.

 

His first half numbers and second half numbers were also very similar. He actually hit better in the second half (believe it or not).

I'd worry more about him staying healthy than anything he produces. If he's healthy he'll be an effective player.

[Eminor3rd]

Bump for the addition of everything else. Sorry I didn't keep up, I was in Phoenix all last week without my laptop.

 

CA: #19

1B: #12

2B: #20

3B: #23

SS: #16

CF: #13

RF: #21

LF: #25

DH: #12 (of 15)

SP: #8

RP: #7

 

Avg Rank (counting DH as #24): #17

 

Surprises: Bullpen being so high, RF and DH being so low. Interesting, though, that the average ranking is 17, which feels about right.

 

Thoughts? Was this an interesting "series" for everyone?