Is Ventura a good game manager?

[Marty34]

So Chris Sale can't possibly keep up a rate of 3 good starts out of 4?

 

Yeah, that'll never happen.

 

Do you still think this team wins 90 games?

 

[southsider2k5]

So tell me the players on the roster you expect to perform better?

 

Pretty much the entire offense, sans a couple of hitters who are actually hitting normally.

[Steve9347]

Pretty much the entire offense, sans a couple of hitters who are actually hitting normally.

So, am I to believe you think Alex Rios with a .984 OPS is normal? Alexei Ramirez hitting .306 is normal?

 

They are above expectations.

 

Should we expect more from De Aza? His OPS is right in line with last season. Adam Dunn? He's proven he can do this for an entire season. Dayan Viciedo? There's zero patience there. He and the great career-backup Jeff Keppinger have yet to draw a walk this season. Keppinger should hit a bit better, but he's no difference maker. Gordon Beckham? Well, he's injured but was actually hitting .300. Tyler Flowers? Expecting anything more than he's given so far (.229 average, .794 OPS) would be completely asinine.

 

Who haven't we covered yet? Gillaspie? He's hitting .300. Paulie? He's 37 - but I guess slight improvement could be expected.

 

So, really - tell me why I am wrong on anyone above. Show me where I should expect improvement in this God-awful offense while, of course, expecting Rios/Ramirez to come back down a bit?

[southsider2k5]

So, am I to believe you think Alex Rios with a .984 OPS is normal? Alexei Ramirez hitting .306 is normal?

 

They are above expectations.

 

Should we expect more from De Aza? His OPS is right in line with last season. Adam Dunn? He's proven he can do this for an entire season. Dayan Viciedo? There's zero patience there. He and the great career-backup Jeff Keppinger have yet to draw a walk this season. Keppinger should hit a bit better, but he's no difference maker. Gordon Beckham? Well, he's injured but was actually hitting .300. Tyler Flowers? Expecting anything more than he's given so far (.229 average, .794 OPS) would be completely asinine.

Who haven't we covered yet? Gillaspie? He's hitting .300. Paulie? He's 37 - but I guess slight improvement could be expected.

 

So, really - tell me why I am wrong on anyone above. Show me where I should expect improvement in this God-awful offense while, of course, expecting Rios/Ramirez to come back down a bit?

 

Yes, all of them should improve, and in some cases drastically. The team is not going to hit .230 for the season, and .170 with RISP for the season. Expecting that is the definition of asinine.

[IlliniKrush]

So, am I to believe you think Alex Rios with a .984 OPS is normal? Alexei Ramirez hitting .306 is normal?

 

They are above expectations.

 

Should we expect more from De Aza? His OPS is right in line with last season. Adam Dunn? He's proven he can do this for an entire season. Dayan Viciedo? There's zero patience there. He and the great career-backup Jeff Keppinger have yet to draw a walk this season. Keppinger should hit a bit better, but he's no difference maker. Gordon Beckham? Well, he's injured but was actually hitting .300. Tyler Flowers? Expecting anything more than he's given so far (.229 average, .794 OPS) would be completely asinine.

 

Who haven't we covered yet? Gillaspie? He's hitting .300. Paulie? He's 37 - but I guess slight improvement could be expected.

 

So, really - tell me why I am wrong on anyone above. Show me where I should expect improvement in this God-awful offense while, of course, expecting Rios/Ramirez to come back down a bit?

Great post.

 

Yes, all of them should improve, and in some cases drastically. The team is not going to hit .230 for the season, and .170 with RISP for the season. Expecting that is the definition of asinine.

Aaaand didn't address any of it, used a simple team stat when we need to talk about each individual that comprises said stat.

[Steve9347]

Yes, all of them should improve, and in some cases drastically. The team is not going to hit .230 for the season, and .170 with RISP for the season. Expecting that is the definition of asinine.

Expecting players to hit to expectations is not asinine.

[southsider2k5]

Great post.

 

 

Aaaand didn't address any of it, used a simple team stat when we need to talk about each individual that comprises said stat.

 

You do realize that a team stat is the combination of individual stats, right my stalker?

[southsider2k5]

Expecting players to hit to expectations is not asinine.

 

Then your expectations are horrible. Put money on the team hitting .230 for the season and .170 w/ RISP. Back it up then.

[IlliniKrush]

You do realize that a team stat is the combination of individual stats, right?

No, had no idea.

 

He asked to give specific examples of where guys should improve, or even regress. So, how does that stat get better?

 

Simply saying OMG the Sox are great everyone will improve probably doesn't make it likely.

 

Right, my stalker?

Edited April 22, 2013 by IlliniKrush

[southsider2k5]

No, had no idea.

 

He asked to give specific examples of where guys should improve, or even regress. So, how does that stat get better?

 

Simply saying OMG the Sox are great everyone will improve probably doesn't make it likely.

 

Right, my stalker?

 

I'll take your money too, if you are up for it.

[IlliniKrush]

I'll take your money too, if you are up for it.

No s*** they won't hit .230, pretty sure no team did that last year, but which guys are going to get THAT much better, to the point at which the Sox will actually compete?

 

Throw some numbers out there for actual hitters, since they will all get so much better, and Steve and I will be sure to bet on those.

[southsider2k5]

No s*** they won't hit .230, pretty sure no team did that last year, but which guys are going to get THAT much better, to the point at which the Sox will actually compete?

 

Throw some numbers out there for actual hitters, since they will all get so much better, and Steve and I will be sure to bet on those.

 

Since apparently google doesn't work for my stalker, here you go.

 

De Aza .649 OPS vs .693 career

PK .766 vs .858 (or even .857 last year)

Gordo .649 vs .693

Dunn .421 vs .865 (or even .801 LY, or .569 in 2011 by far his worst year ever), not to mention his .100 RISP

Viciedo .646 vs .737, plus .200 RISP

Keppinger .315 vs .722, plus .091 with RISP

Ramirez even with his .316 average is .788 vs his career .721. While he is hitting for average, he isn't hitting for much power yet. So there isn't a lot of regression to the means to be had there.

Rios is .984 vs .771, so plenty of regression room there, though much less if you look at his LY of .850 with any faith

Flowers is at .794, with a small sample .710 career. His minor league numbers career out to .876, with .814 in his triple A time, so even a reasonable growth with playing full time puts him pretty close to where he is now.

 

Yes, there is plenty of room for movement even to the norms, let alone anyone actually having a "good" year versus their career norms.

 

Also common sense will state that a movement from even .170 with RISP to .250 with RISP is an extra hit with RISP every 12 ABs or so, working out to about a run a game extra. That alone wins many games.

[IlliniKrush]

After all that...room for improvement on some, but not a whole lot. Plus age + injuries means a lot of these guys could get worse or stay as low as they are (Viciedo, Dunn, Konerko). Not a whole lot there.

[southsider2k5]

After all that...room for improvement on some, but not a whole lot. Plus age + injuries means a lot of these guys could get worse or stay as low as they are (Viciedo, Dunn, Konerko). Not a whole lot there.

 

Sure, if you assume that everyone is at or below their averages. There is a lot of room for improvement for a lot of that line up. Keppinger and Dunn are so far under even their worst numbers it isn't even funny. Assuming they will stay there is just silly.

[caulfield12]

And Gillaspie's going to hit well over .300 for most of the year?

 

He's already starting to fall off.

[IlliniKrush]

Sure, if you assume that everyone is at or below their averages. There is a lot of room for improvement for a lot of that line up. Keppinger and Dunn are so far under even their worst numbers it isn't even funny. Assuming they will stay there is just silly.

There's not a lot of justification for some of these guys greatly improving right now. Dunn is basically a lost cause, even though his numbers will likely improve. Dunn is getting nowhere near a career average in anything important. Keppinger looks awful, hasn't walked yet either. Viciedo coming back from injury and swinging at everything that doesn't bounce (and some that do), Beckham same thing and not a good hitter when healthy unless he goes back in time.

 

Just a bad lineup right now. Even if it improves a bit, which it will, it's still bad.

[oldsox]

There's not a lot of justification for some of these guys greatly improving right now. Dunn is basically a lost cause, even though his numbers will likely improve. Dunn is getting nowhere near a career average in anything important. Keppinger looks awful, hasn't walked yet either. Viciedo coming back from injury and swinging at everything that doesn't bounce (and some that do), Beckham same thing and not a good hitter when healthy unless he goes back in time.

 

Just a bad lineup right now. Even if it improves a bit, which it will, it's still bad.

Agreed. Plus Konerko and Alexi are obviously on the downside of their careers. This is one of the worst offensive teams in years. I hope they can draft somone who can make it to the majors in a year or two.

[Steve9347]

Since apparently google doesn't work for my stalker, here you go.

 

De Aza .649 OPS vs .693 career

PK .766 vs .858 (or even .857 last year)

Gordo .649 vs .693

Dunn .421 vs .865 (or even .801 LY, or .569 in 2011 by far his worst year ever), not to mention his .100 RISP

Viciedo .646 vs .737, plus .200 RISP

Keppinger .315 vs .722, plus .091 with RISP

Ramirez even with his .316 average is .788 vs his career .721. While he is hitting for average, he isn't hitting for much power yet. So there isn't a lot of regression to the means to be had there.

Rios is .984 vs .771, so plenty of regression room there, though much less if you look at his LY of .850 with any faith

Flowers is at .794, with a small sample .710 career. His minor league numbers career out to .876, with .814 in his triple A time, so even a reasonable growth with playing full time puts him pretty close to where he is now.

 

Yes, there is plenty of room for movement even to the norms, let alone anyone actually having a "good" year versus their career norms.

 

Also common sense will state that a movement from even .170 with RISP to .250 with RISP is an extra hit with RISP every 12 ABs or so, working out to about a run a game extra. That alone wins many games.

De Aza has a. 742 OPS according to Yahoo.

[joeynach]

Sale has had 3 quality starts. Look for the offense to get better when Beckham and Viciedo return. If Ventura can shake up the lineup, they'll score runs.

 

Im still worried about his durability and velocity. Did you see the velocity chart that Bernstein was talking about on 670. I know you cant throw 96 pitch after pitch if you want to stick around and not blow out your arm, but his velocity dips have been significant and we are about 3 years deep worth of IP for him at the big league level. The graph was very clear, as time went on velocity went down about every 40 IP buckets he pitched since he broke in. Its just troubling.

[southsider2k5]

And Gillaspie's going to hit well over .300 for most of the year?

 

He's already starting to fall off.

 

Connor was a guy who put up A .777 ops in the minors including .815 at AAA. Before tonight he was sitting at .717. From the looks of it a bit lower average made up by a bit more power would be my guess based on limited info.

[joeynach]

So, am I to believe you think Alex Rios with a .984 OPS is normal? Alexei Ramirez hitting .306 is normal?

 

They are above expectations.

 

Should we expect more from De Aza? His OPS is right in line with last season. Adam Dunn? He's proven he can do this for an entire season. Dayan Viciedo? There's zero patience there. He and the great career-backup Jeff Keppinger have yet to draw a walk this season. Keppinger should hit a bit better, but he's no difference maker. Gordon Beckham? Well, he's injured but was actually hitting .300. Tyler Flowers? Expecting anything more than he's given so far (.229 average, .794 OPS) would be completely asinine.

 

Who haven't we covered yet? Gillaspie? He's hitting .300. Paulie? He's 37 - but I guess slight improvement could be expected.

 

So, really - tell me why I am wrong on anyone above. Show me where I should expect improvement in this God-awful offense while, of course, expecting Rios/Ramirez to come back down a bit?

 

I actually agree with everything here. I see the same as you. The team has all these players that we see with all these flaws that we just have to saw they are who they are. Keppenger doesnt walk, doesnt see pitches and work counts, neither does Viciedo, Alexei, Flowers, or Beckham. Alexi can't bunt, Dunn can't hit, Dunn's new approach has essentially traded walks and working counts for early outs by swinging more. PK, Rios, De Aza they are who they are. A majority of our hitters are established low OBP, low pitch count working, high K rate, high swing rate hitters....PERIOD. Thats bad, that's why there is no optimism for letting these guys develop and grow, while we endure some pain, to me that are who they are at this point.

 

But see to me the team architecture is all wrong. There are too many of the same guys, too many of these low OBP, no pitch count working, high K rate, high swing rate guys. If you are trying to compete with a $110M payroll and marketing your team as such then you can have a couple of these guys at the bottom of the order as you "give them a shot" and "develop". You can't have 9 studs I get it. But this team has Konerko and Rios as about the only two hitters who don't fit the hitter profile I described above. If team OBP is such a problem who approved of Manto and Dunn creating this "new approach" to swing earlier more, essentially trading walks and pitch counts for early outs and low counts. Who thought with team OBP as a major issue last year bringing in an extremely low career OBP player in Keppinger was the correct addition to this lineup. I dont get it. If you are forced to have Alexei, De Aza, Beckham, Flowers, Viciedo out there for various reasons then you better have every other piece of your lineup have strengths that compliment those guys weaknesses. This team does not. It has hitters who compound the same issues as other hitters.

Edited April 23, 2013 by joeynach

[southsider2k5]

De Aza has a. 742 OPS according to Yahoo.

 

Great post. You wanted numbers and then just ignored them.

[joeynach]

There's not a lot of justification for some of these guys greatly improving right now. Dunn is basically a lost cause, even though his numbers will likely improve. Dunn is getting nowhere near a career average in anything important. Keppinger looks awful, hasn't walked yet either. Viciedo coming back from injury and swinging at everything that doesn't bounce (and some that do), Beckham same thing and not a good hitter when healthy unless he goes back in time.

 

Just a bad lineup right now. Even if it improves a bit, which it will, it's still bad.

 

CORRECT. Can I press the like button. I still love the Sox, but yes this is an honest and realistic assessment of what they are.

[southsider2k5]

Im still worried about his durability and velocity. Did you see the velocity chart that Bernstein was talking about on 670. I know you cant throw 96 pitch after pitch if you want to stick around and not blow out your arm, but his velocity dips have been significant and we are about 3 years deep worth of IP for him at the big league level. The graph was very clear, as time went on velocity went down about every 40 IP buckets he pitched since he broke in. Its just troubling.

 

There was a massive list of pitchers whose velocity was down this year, headed up byJustin Verlander who was down around 1.5 mph.

[joeynach]

There was a massive list of pitchers whose velocity was down this year, headed up byJustin Verlander who was down around 1.5 mph.

 

Were you not concerned when his velocity was below 90 for that Detroit game and that Texas game last July. He was probably throwing 90-92 the rest of the way. No we are three weeks into the season and already have the first recognized write up /analysis on his reduced velocity. Its just troublesome thats all.