Adam Dunn's failed experiment

[joeynach]

Using this thing called advanced metrics, which I know our always adaptable friend Hawk Harrelson doesn't like, we can see that Dunn's new approach to hitting has basically been a complete failure. The article basically proves that two weeks worth of games is good enough in this instance to judge Dunn's new approach as a failure b/c it was basically altered his style from a pitch type hitter to a pitch zone hitter. The results of which have produced more negative hitting results; one pitch at bats for outs, hitting in more pitchers counts vs. hitters counts, etc.

 

"Dunn has basically adapted his approach to swing at anything on the inner half as long as it isn't at the knees. Instead of studying pitcher tendencies and trying to get into counts where he can guess what's coming, he's now just looking for a ball middle in at any point in the at-bat. And the results have been disastrous. He's hitting .136/.174/.295, good for just a .206 wOBA. Because he's falling behind more often than he used to, the more aggressive approach hasn't really trimmed his strikeout rate, but it's basically eliminated his ability to draw walks; he has just two bases on balls so far. Sacrificing walks for more hits and more home runs could be a worthy trade-off if that was the result, but what Dunn has really accomplished so far is trading walks for outs."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-dunns-failed-experiment/

Edited April 15, 2013 by joeynach

[southsider2k5]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=2783879

[fathom]

Wait, he's trying not to swing at anything at the knees? Sounds like a stupid approach for someone who's notorious for being a low ball hitter.

[caulfield12]

Maybe they meant TOO FAR INSIDE or AT THE KNEES, rather than merely "knee high."

[Jake]

Wait, he's trying not to swing at anything at the knees? Sounds like a stupid approach for someone who's notorious for being a low ball hitter.

 

I've never found him to be a good low ball hitter. Outside and low sure, but he's worthless low and in where most lefties are. He hits belt high pitches best, which is why he's a mistake hitter.

[kitekrazy]

They need to find a naive NL GM to take him off our hands. Maybe he can't hack the AL.

[greg775]

They need to find a naive NL GM to take him off our hands. Maybe he can't hack the AL.

 

The Adam Dunn era in Chicago has not been fun.

[hogan873]

I'm probably one of the bigger fans of Adam Dunn on this site, but I've just about seen enough. Last year was nice...until his batting average slipped dramatically in the second half. So far this year he looks like 2011 again. He's really doing nothing to help the team so far, not even a lot of walks. He's either striking out or hitting right into the shift. I find it amazing that he can't change his approach and hit a ball to the left side of the infield.

 

He's been playing a lot of first base so far, so maybe it's part showcasing his ability to play the field so he could possibly be traded back to the NL. I don't see it happening though, unless the Sox get almost nothing back and end up paying a big chunk of his remaining salary. I guess all we can hope for is for him to turn it around and get his batting average back to .200.

[cabiness42]

I had a dream last night that I saw Adam Dunn and told him that I liked him better when he was taking a lot of walks and he got really mad at me.

 

I think I need a break from the Sox for a while.

[winninguglyin83]

Every time I look at Adam Dunn, I am thankful that Rick Hahn is in charge -- and mindful of why he didn't have the flexibility to make any significant moves last winter

 

Thanks again, Kenny.

[southsider2k5]

Every time I look at Adam Dunn, I am thankful that Rick Hahn is in charge -- and mindful of why he didn't have the flexibility to make any significant moves last winter

 

Thanks again, Kenny.

 

And thanks Ozzie most of all.

[chisoxt]

Lost in all of this is this...why would you try to radically alter the hitting approach of a free swinging hitter in his 30's, especially one that is so one-dimensional as Dunn (home run, walk or strike out)? Was this Dunn's idea or the coaching staff's?

 

I know that 2012 did not end well for Dunn but the overall numbers that he put up are what Adam Dunn is. Lemme guess...Kenny didn't realize what he was getting when he signed him.

[Dick Allen]

I don't know how you can conclude anything on Dunn. I'm sure he's had stretches like this just about every year of his career. He's probably a .200 hitter with close to 40 homers and 200 k's. Not worth what they are paying him, but useful in today's game.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't know how you can conclude anything on Dunn. I'm sure he's had stretches like this just about every year of his career. He's probably a .200 hitter with close to 40 homers and 200 k's. Not worth what they are paying him, but useful in today's game.

I take it you didn't read the article, because there's been a fundamental change to his hitting style this year and the article shows that he has indeed changed his approach and is swinging significantly more early in counts.

 

I agree with you he is probably an .800 OPS player now, if he were using his normal three true outcome approach. Until he goes back to that though, he will continue to kill our offense.

[Marty34]

The worst thing that could happen is he sticks with this approach and gets benched and maybe eventually DFA'd. Is that so bad?

[elrockinMT]

The worst thing that could happen is he sticks with this approach and gets benched and maybe eventually DFA'd. Is that so bad?

 

 

That will never happen. Dunn could turn it around quickly too and go on a tear where he carries the team for a long stretch and then come back to earth before doing it again. That's the way it is quite often with these power guys

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I don't know how you can conclude anything on Dunn. I'm sure he's had stretches like this just about every year of his career. He's probably a .200 hitter with close to 40 homers and 200 k's. Not worth what they are paying him, but useful in today's game.

 

Me either.

 

YEAR TEAM GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS WAR

2011 CHW 122 415 36 66 16 0 11 42 75 177 0 1 .159 .292 .277 .569 -3.1

2012 CHW 151 539 87 110 19 0 41 96 105 222 2 1 .204 .333 .468 .801 0.9

2013 CHW 12 47 6 6 1 0 2 5 2 16 1 0 .128 .180 .277 .457 --

 

[Chicago White Sox]

The worst thing that could happen is he sticks with this approach and gets benched and maybe eventually DFA'd. Is that so bad?

Throwing away $14 million on nothing seems pretty bad if the alternative is an .800 OPS DH. Hell, if you straight up platooned him you'd probably get a little bit better than that. As painful as he is to watch, there is some still value if he reverts back to 2012 form, even if he's overpaid.

 

Also, let's be honest, how many left-handed power hitters will be available this coming offseason? How do replace his bat in the lineup against RHP? That's going to require money and/or talent and we're already going to need to use assets to replace Konerko most likely.

 

If we had some internal candidate knocking at the door, then maybe you could make an argument, but right now we're better off getting Dunn back to normal and hoping for an .800 OPS player.

[Dick Allen]

I take it you didn't read the article, because there's been a fundamental change to his hitting style this year and the article shows that he has indeed changed his approach and is swinging significantly more early in counts.

 

I agree with you he is probably an .800 OPS player now, if he were using his normal three true outcome approach. Until he goes back to that though, he will continue to kill our offense.

And I'm saying he will probably hit around .200 with around 40 homers and probably over 200 strikeouts. Just like last year. Probably a little worse than last year, but it's 50 AB. It's amazing how everyone comes to conclusions so quickly.

 

Last year when everyone thought he was so valuable, from 4/8-4/17 he was 5-34 with 1 walk.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

And I'm saying he will probably hit around .200 with around 40 homers and probably over 200 strikeouts. Just like last year. Probably a little worse than last year, but it's 50 AB. It's amazing how everyone comes to conclusions so quickly.

 

Last year when everyone thought he was so valuable, from 4/8-4/17 he was 5-34 with 1 walk.

 

You are the last person I thought I'd see defending Dunn to any extent, but I agree completely with everything you're talking about.

[Chicago White Sox]

And I'm saying he will probably hit around .200 with around 40 homers and probably over 200 strikeouts. Just like last year. Probably a little worse than last year, but it's 50 AB. It's amazing how everyone comes to conclusions so quickly.

 

Last year when everyone thought he was so valuable, from 4/8-4/17 he was 5-34 with 1 walk.

So you think he can achieve those numbers with his new approach or you're just confident he'll ditch it in the near future?

 

Again, I don't disagree with you about what Dunn is capable of, but he needs to go back to his old approach. The numbers in that article show why swinging early in counts is killing his game. This isn't just a slow start like last year, this is a flawed approach to hitting that is unlikely to ever work for Dunn.

[hogan873]

And I'm saying he will probably hit around .200 with around 40 homers and probably over 200 strikeouts. Just like last year. Probably a little worse than last year, but it's 50 AB. It's amazing how everyone comes to conclusions so quickly.

 

Last year when everyone thought he was so valuable, from 4/8-4/17 he was 5-34 with 1 walk.

It's just so frustrating right now with just about the entire team not hitting, especially in situations when they need to hit. Dunn sticks out because he had such a terrible 2011, and the 2013 adam Dunn looks a lot like that guy from 2011. However, I agree with what you're saying if you look at 2013 alone. It's just hard not to look at his portfolio as a White Sox as a whole.

[LVSoxFan]

The Adam Dunn era in Chicago has not been fun.

 

Never liked this move. Nothing against him personally but I never saw the value in having somebody who is HR-or-bust, most often bust.

 

[caulfield12]

Never liked this move. Nothing against him personally but I never saw the value in having somebody who is HR-or-bust, most often bust.

 

 

Typical KW overcorrection.

 

Went from Thome, which wasn't working according to Ozzie and/or KW....to Kotsay/Andruw Jones, which contributed to costing us the 2010 division (75% the fact that Jim went to the Twins and played so well in the place of Morneau)....which left a HUGE power gap from the LH side which couldn't be addressed internally because of our weak minor league system.

 

If they actually found the right combination of hitters, they could have filled that position with the same production at a fraction of the cost....but Mark Kotsay wasn't the right hitter for 300-350 DH AB's at that point in his career.

[Jenksismyhero]

Never liked this move. Nothing against him personally but I never saw the value in having somebody who is HR-or-bust, most often bust.

 

?? That's the patented White Sox offense for the last decade. He's the perfect player for this franchise.