How Much Rope Does Dunn Have?

[oldsox]

Agreed, I liked the signing as it made perfect sense.

I hated the signing from day 1. I remember watching him play against the Rockies when he was at Wash -- he was awful, clearly on the downside of his career. Then we did a 4 year deal? And gave up a #1 draft pick? It was insane. What I don't remember is whether other teams were trying to sign him. Regardless, Kenny was flat out-negotiated by his agent. If he goes 0 for the next 5, he is batting about .100.

[Jake]

Hey, at least we didn't give him Jayson Werth cash

[hogan873]

He'll have to turn it around pretty quickly. Regardless, I don't think he'll be 2011-bad this year, but I don't see him hitting as well as last year. Unless I see a significant change over the next few games, it's going to be hard to imagine another 40+ HR year for him.

 

Before the season started I was thinking he'd equal last year's performance with maybe a slightly higher BA. Now I'm thinking his BA will be about the same with fewer HRs...maybe in the neighborhood of 25.

 

I hope I'm surprised, though.

[southsider2k5]

I asked this in the game thread, but has anyone done a study on Dunn to see how many hits the extreme shift costs/has cost him?

[hogan873]

I asked this in the game thread, but has anyone done a study on Dunn to see how many hits the extreme shift costs/has cost him?

That shift has got to cost him a ton of hits. But, what blows my mind is that he can't adjust to it and poke a hit to shallow left.

[southsider2k5]

That shift has got to cost him a ton of hits. But, what blows my mind is that he can't adjust to it and poke a hit to shallow left.

 

Me too, but I am trying to figure out if I am on to something, or if it isn't that big of a difference.

[Balta1701]

That shift has got to cost him a ton of hits. But, what blows my mind is that he can't adjust to it and poke a hit to shallow left.

He's adjusted his approach this year to try to make more contact rather than just swinging for the fences all the time. His failure this year so far is a direct result. You are asking him to hit with less power and be less effective.

[hogan873]

He's adjusted his approach this year to try to make more contact rather than just swinging for the fences all the time. His failure this year so far is a direct result. You are asking him to hit with less power and be less effective.

Less power, sure. But I would think that he could make the adjustment. Maybe he will, and what we're seeing now is a period while he struggles through it. He's been a victim of the shift his entire career. Why hasn't he (or can't he) make the adjustment?

[Balta1701]

Less power, sure. But I would think that he could make the adjustment. Maybe he will, and what we're seeing now is a period while he struggles through it. He's been a victim of the shift his entire career. Why hasn't he (or can't he) make the adjustment?

Because getting 10 extra hits per year is not worth giving up 20 home runs per year.

[southsider2k5]

Because getting 10 extra hits per year is not worth giving up 20 home runs per year.

 

As strong as Dunn is, he isn't hitting wall scrapers. He could go oppo with easy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Every time Dunn leads off an inning he should lay down a hard bunt toward third base. It doesn't even have to be along the line. Bunt it hard enough it's a double. I'd gladly take some singles and doubles from him.

[southsider2k5]

Every time Dunn leads off an inning he should lay down a hard bunt toward third base. It doesn't even have to be along the line. Bunt it hard enough it's a double. I'd gladly take some singles and doubles from him.

 

The thing is, if he does it just once in a while, teams can't use the extreme shift anymore, and he gets back some of that lost territory.

[Dick Allen]

The thing is, if he does it just once in a while, teams can't use the extreme shift anymore, and he gets back some of that lost territory.

Personally, if I was the opposing manager, the only way Dunn is really going to hurt me is by hitting a homer. If he wants to bunt down the 3rd base line, that's fine by me. It wouldn't make me take away any shift. It's not like Rickey Henderson will then be on first.

 

He's been awful, but still on pace for 20 homers. If 2011 never happened, no one, except for a game thread poster, would even consider he could be this bad for an entire season. He'll be better than he has been.

[TaylorStSox]

I've never seen a hitter get more hits taken away by the shift than Dunn. It's easy to say poke the ball into left field, but hitting a baseball is a very hard thing to do.

[hogan873]

Because getting 10 extra hits per year is not worth giving up 20 home runs per year.

Probably a bit of an exaggeration here.

[witesoxfan]

Personally, if I was the opposing manager, the only way Dunn is really going to hurt me is by hitting a homer. If he wants to bunt down the 3rd base line, that's fine by me. It wouldn't make me take away any shift. It's not like Rickey Henderson will then be on first.

 

He's been awful, but still on pace for 20 homers. If 2011 never happened, no one, except for a game thread poster, would even consider he could be this bad for an entire season. He'll be better than he has been.

 

It depends on what point of the game they were at. Also, the best time to do it would be against a lefty. He can't hit against them anyways, so if he can lay down a bunt or two against them, he becomes just a bit more dangerous.

[Dick Allen]

It depends on what point of the game they were at. Also, the best time to do it would be against a lefty. He can't hit against them anyways, so if he can lay down a bunt or two against them, he becomes just a bit more dangerous.

Even if Dunn or any other power hitter became a bunt threat, I don't think it would affect defenses all that much. It's not like the 3B is going to play up anyway. Depending on the situation, the shift against Dunn already is modified.

 

The ironic thing about talking about shifts, Dunn has more ABs than anyone else where only a pitcher and catcher are required.

Edited April 18, 2013 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

It depends on what point of the game they were at. Also, the best time to do it would be against a lefty. He can't hit against them anyways, so if he can lay down a bunt or two against them, he becomes just a bit more dangerous.

 

For example, when we have a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, I want to see him put it down if the 3B is in the deep SS position. My rationale is that if he can get it down even 50% of the time, that results in 5 runs. That isn't even taking into account the runner being able to score anyway, even if Dunn makes an out. Realistically we are probably looking at 7-8 runs in 10 tries.

 

As a .200 hitter (which is generous right now), and a guy who hits a homer every 10 ABs, the two basic outcomes are 8 outs, 1 homer, and 1 single. We are looking at something like 4-5 runs, depending on how the outs are made.

[Balta1701]

For example, when we have a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, I want to see him put it down if the 3B is in the deep SS position. My rationale is that if he can get it down even 50% of the time, that results in 5 runs. That isn't even taking into account the runner being able to score anyway, even if Dunn makes an out. Realistically we are probably looking at 7-8 runs in 10 tries.

 

As a .200 hitter (which is generous right now), and a guy who hits a homer every 10 ABs, the two basic outcomes are 8 outs, 1 homer, and 1 single. We are looking at something like 4-5 runs, depending on how the outs are made.

Doesn't the 3b hold the guy on at 3rd in that position? Not just to guard against the bunt but also to guard against the easy steal of home.

[southsider2k5]

Doesn't the 3b hold the guy on at 3rd in that position? Not just to guard against the bunt but also to guard against the easy steal of home.

 

They haven't been doing it.

[Balta1701]

They haven't been doing it.

Then someone needs to steal home. Yeesh, if the 3b is playing SS, Konerko ought to be able to steal home.

[greg775]

Is this possible? He's hitting .111 with an OBP of .172?

The stats I see have him with six hits in 54 at bats with 3 walks. There's no reason for him ever to bat against a lefty again, is there?

 

I guess the good news is if he's going to be hitting 40 or more homers he'll have to be getting relatively hot relatively soon. He only has 2 bombs.

[Dick Allen]

If there are RISP, the shift against Dunn isn't so pronounced. A guy on second could just walk into 3rd if that was the case, and they have to keep runners on 3rd at least a little honest.

[Cali]

That shift has got to cost him a ton of hits. But, what blows my mind is that he can't adjust to it and poke a hit to shallow left.

 

I remember him doing that a few times in Spring Training and it worked beautifully. Don't know why he hasn't tried it yet in the regular season.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

I remember him doing that a few times in Spring Training and it worked beautifully. Don't know why he hasn't tried it yet in the regular season.

 

Probably because he isn't facing minor league pitchers anymore. *shrug*