What's the Best Approach to Rebuilding

[KPBears]

Hi board, first time poster, long time reader. I'm not one of those sky is falling types (although this post may sound like it), but I'm also not one of those everything's sunshine and roses and unicorns types either. From what I've seen, the Sox organization is in a serious down cycle at all levels. I have a feeling that the organization knows it as well, hence the "promotion" of Ken Williams and the hiring of Rick Hahn.

 

As for Williams, I don't really agree with his philosophy, but I understand it was a novel approach, and really respect him as a GM for thinking outside the box (and as much as Billy Beane wants to deride his philosophy, which one of them has a World Series title on their watch as GM?). However, I feel like he had some good luck that allowed his approach to string along for a few more years than the law of averages would have expected. So he's moved "up", and Hahn has moved in. What now?

 

I've been a fan of Hahn's for a long time, and I would really like to see the Sox give him a long leash, which I think he'll need. I'm not sure this team will be in position to compete for at least four or five years, because the big league talent is getting old, and the minor league talent just isn't there. And this leads to my question, how to rebuild?

 

There's the tear it all down, fire sale theory where you stock pile draft picks. The risk with this is, obviously, what happens if the can't miss prospects miss, which they actually do quite a bit in baseball. And there are cases of teams that just seem to be stuck in a permanent rebuilding cycle (e.g. the Royals and Pirates, although the Pirates finally seem to be breaking through, but after far too long in my opinion).

 

That being said, there is a modified version of this model that the Astros are following now. And I really like what their GM is doing, going public announcing that they're going to be miserable for a few years, but if you give them five years, they will come back with a dynasty (again, I know it's impossible to guarantee). But the Astros are claiming that once they start hitting on a few of these prospects and get close, they'll throw money at some big free agents, and trade away some other prospects for established players to get over the hump. It's also similar to what the Tigers did. And I'd like to see Hahn get the opportunity and the patience to follow this model. I think the big difference between the Tigers (and you can lump the Sox and Astros in with the Tigers) and the Royals/Pirates is that Detroit is still a relatively big market team (as are the Astros and Sox), and when they got close, they had the resources to get free agent help, and not just of the Jeff Keppinger variety.

 

I'm not looking forward to consecutive 90 loss seasons, but if Hahn seems to have a smart plan in place, I'm willing to stick by him and see what happens. And I think the Tigers/Astros model could work for the Sox. But if anyone has other rebuilding ideas, I'd love to hear them. Sorry for the long post, by the way.

[Balta1701]

My response to anyone calling the Astros a positive example is going to be pretty simple. They had a game last year where 1100 people watched. On TV.

 

The 4th biggest city in the country, with no competition, drew 1100 viewers on TV for a game last year. On a weekend.

 

The Astros have 2 winning records since 2006, They have an 82 win season and an 86 win season. They've been under .500 for the last 4 years, they've sold off whatever talent they had, and they still are facing several more years of being the laughingstock of baseball and having no interest whatsoever before they'd be able to rebuild through the draft.

 

The White Sox have legit competition in their area, even if that team is also terrible. The end result of a period of 5-8 years losing by the White Sox right now is going to be the end of the White Sox. They would either be moving or close to folding. The Chicago market will not be that forgiving.

 

Oh, and welcome to the site .

[Marty34]

My response to anyone calling the Astros a positive example is going to be pretty simple. They had a game last year where 1100 people watched. On TV.

 

The 4th biggest city in the country, with no competition, drew 1100 viewers on TV for a game last year. On a weekend.

 

The Astros have 2 winning records since 2006, They have an 82 win season and an 86 win season. They've been under .500 for the last 4 years, they've sold off whatever talent they had, and they still are facing several more years of being the laughingstock of baseball and having no interest whatsoever before they'd be able to rebuild through the draft.

 

The White Sox have legit competition in their area, even if that team is also terrible. The end result of a period of 5-8 years losing by the White Sox right now is going to be the end of the White Sox. They would either be moving or close to folding. The Chicago market will not be that forgiving.

 

Oh, and welcome to the site .

 

What if they don't rebuild and still go through a period of 5-8 years of losing?

[Balta1701]

What if they don't rebuild and still go through a period of 5-8 years of losing?

Then they'll be on their 3rd GM and 4th coach, if nothing else.

[Marty34]

Then they'll be on their 3rd GM and 4th coach, if nothing else.

 

How would they have avoided moving or folding?

[Cali]

Then they'll be on their 3rd GM and 4th coach, if nothing else.

 

And that's better?

[Balta1701]

How would they have avoided moving or folding?

They wouldn't have. But in that case, that's failure after failure. That's not deliberate destruction, that's a terrible job by the franchise.

 

Here's a comparison. 5 or 6 consecutive years of losing despite trying to compete is like playing Russian roulette and loading 1 round into a revolver. If everything goes wrong, well, you know how that ends.

 

Trying the Astros route, deliberately losing for half a decade and then hoping that you have prospects develop faster than the Royals/Pirates/whoever else has gone that route...for this franchise, that's like playing Russian roulette and loading 6 shots into the revolver. Even if everything goes 100% to plan, the franchise has still shot itself in the head.

[thedoctor]

there is no "right" way to rebuild. it will always be based on your team, existing talent, fanbase, and even then it requires catching a break or two.

the cubs are taking a thoughtful and pragmatic approach to a rebuild, but it isn't an approach the sox could take and there's no guarantee it gets the cubs anything other than a few horrorawful seasons.

the first key for the sox is just to be better at drafting and developing talent both nationally and internationally. the sox have addressed those areas which is good, but it's too early to tell if they've addressed it in a way that will work.

at the big club level the sox are going to need to continue to spend, imo. not stupid money, mind you, but at least at or near the level they are currently spending at. it will help if they can jettison some of these contracts, because right now the roster is just jank.

Edited April 21, 2013 by thedoctor

[Marty34]

They wouldn't have. But in that case, that's failure after failure. That's not deliberate destruction, that's a terrible job by the franchise.

 

Here's a comparison. 5 or 6 consecutive years of losing despite trying to compete is like playing Russian roulette and loading 1 round into a revolver. If everything goes wrong, well, you know how that ends.

 

Trying the Astros route, deliberately losing for half a decade and then hoping that you have prospects develop faster than the Royals/Pirates/whoever else has gone that route...for this franchise, that's like playing Russian roulette and loading 6 shots into the revolver. Even if everything goes 100% to plan, the franchise has still shot itself in the head.

 

So do you keep Peavy and Rios?

[Balta1701]

So do you keep Peavy and Rios?

If they keep playing well enough that people will want them, we'll be competitive this year at some point.

[Jack Parkman]

IMO if they want to rebuild they have to start the process NOW. The last thing the Sox need is them to start a rebuilding program 2 years from now and have Theo's plan start to work on the North Side. That would be suicide. I honestly don't know what the Sox should do to move forward at this point, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I have been on the rebuild the team bandwagon since the 2009 offseason. The Sox are the Cubs of 2009-11 except for Chris Sale. An albatross contract, aging, underperforming players, lots of bad young players, nothing on the farm and no direction(that we know of) in the front office. The one thing the Sox have over the Cubs from that time is that they already have their ace in place, but that does them no good if they are lacking in so many other areas.

 

It would be free agent suicide to trade Sale right now, however if the team is not competing in 2015 it has to be considered. It seems that they have missed the boat on the rebuild because it would have been better for them to do it when the Cubs seemed they had no direction. It also seems they have three choices:1) Rebuild immediately 2) Continue to try to build 78 to 85 win teams and hope that they catch some breaks and win 88-92 games, and win a wild card 3) throw money at the team and hope that it works. Given that Reinsdorf is not likely to give the green light to throw money at the team again, the sensible thing would be to start the rebuild now. However I don't think they are going to try to do that, I think they are going to continue to shove a square peg in a round hole and build 70-79 win teams and attempt to bulls*** the fans into thinking that they are going to compete for the division. IMO we are probably entering a lean period, and we have to hope that Theo's plan blows up in Ricketts' face and the Cubs not only not win a damn thing but stay really bad for a while otherwise it might be the end of the Chicago White Sox, like some others have said. If the Cubs ever win the WS, the Sox are toast in this town. The Sox have been built on being Chicago's winning baseball team, and when that is no longer possible, they are lost. They have to bring in a marketing expert and try to generate interest in a bad team.

Edited April 21, 2013 by Elgin Slim

[Marty34]

If they keep playing well enough that people will want them, we'll be competitive this year at some point.

 

Competitive for what?

[Balta1701]

Competitive for what?

The AL Central?

 

The Sox have a BABIP of .268 right now. They're actually due for a positive correction.

[Jack Parkman]

The AL Central?

 

The Sox have a BABIP of .268 right now. They're actually due for a positive correction.

But what if the cause of this is that most of the hitters on this team are replacement level or worse?

Edited April 21, 2013 by Elgin Slim

[thedoctor]

IMO if they want to rebuild they have to start the process NOW. The last thing the Sox need is them to start a rebuilding program 2 years from now and have Theo's plan start to work on the North Side. That would be suicide. I honestly don't know what the Sox should do to move forward at this point, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I have been on the rebuild the team bandwagon since the 2009 offseason. The Sox are the Cubs of 2009-11 except for Chris Sale. An albatross contract, aging, underperforming players, lots of bad young players, nothing on the farm and no direction(that we know of) in the front office. The one thing the Sox have over the Cubs from that time is that they already have their ace in place, but that does them no good if they are lacking in so many other areas.

 

It would be free agent suicide to trade Sale right now, however if the team is not competing in 2015 it has to be considered. It seems that they have missed the boat on the rebuild because it would have been better for them to do it when the Cubs seemed they had no direction. It also seems they have three choices:1) Rebuild immediately 2) Continue to try to build 78 to 85 win teams and hope that they catch some breaks and win 88-92 games, and win a wild card 3) throw money at the team and hope that it works. Given that Reinsdorf is not likely to give the green light to throw money at the team again, the sensible thing would be to start the rebuild now. However I don't think they are going to try to do that, I think they are going to continue to shove a square peg in a round hole and build 70-79 win teams and attempt to bulls*** the fans into thinking that they are going to compete for the division. IMO we are probably entering a lean period, and we have to hope that Theo's plan blows up in Ricketts' face and the Cubs not only not win a damn thing but stay really bad for a while otherwise it might be the end of the Chicago White Sox, like some others have said. If the Cubs ever win the WS, the Sox are toast in this town. The Sox have been built on being Chicago's winning baseball team, and when that is no longer possible, they are lost. They have to bring in a marketing expert and try to generate interest in a bad team.

 

put me in the camp of not basing plans on what the cubs are doing.

[IlliniKrush]

put me in the camp of not basing plans on what the cubs are doing.

Cubs are absolutely doing it the right way. Whether it works or not who knows, but that's the way to do it.

 

Simply discrediting it because it's the Cubs is silly, plus it's all new management anyway.

[Jack Parkman]

put me in the camp of not basing plans on what the cubs are doing.

But this is the thing, the entire success of the team financially hinges on the Cubs continuing to lose. The Cubs being owned by the Tribune company for a period of time has completely changed things. IMO this should also not have been allowed by MLB in a two team town. Reinsdorf's biggest mistake was allowing the Cubs to effectively market their team without a fight from the Sox. The Sox market to people who are already Sox fans. The Cubs market and marketed to everyone. Most of the baseball fans who go to games in this city go to Wrigley, not the Cell. The Sox have to change that, otherwise they are toast. They continue to refuse to acknowledge that there is another team in town who they compete with for ticket sales and until they do they will not be able to move forward and put together a consistent winning ballclub, IMO. There has to be a subtle war for the tickets that the casual fan buys, and the Sox have to gain ground in that aspect. I would probably say that 65-75% of baseball fans who are Chicago natives are Cub fans. The Sox have to change that. If the Cubs have a 5 year playoff run with a couple of WS titles, The Sox would pack up the moving trucks after the first one.

Edited April 21, 2013 by Elgin Slim

[southsider2k5]

Cubs are absolutely doing it the right way. Whether it works or not who knows, but that's the way to do it.

 

Simply discrediting it because it's the Cubs is silly, plus it's all new management anyway.

 

What the Cubs do is irrelevant, because the Sox demographics are completely different. The Sox don't have as loyal of a fanbase where they can do a complete rebuild and still have any fans around.

[thedoctor]

Cubs are absolutely doing it the right way. Whether it works or not who knows, but that's the way to do it.

 

Simply discrediting it because it's the Cubs is silly, plus it's all new management anyway.

 

that's not what i'm saying. i already credited the cubs for having a good approach to their rebuild in this thread.

i'm saying the sox should consider their options independently of the state or expected state of the cubs org.

[Jack Parkman]

What the Cubs do is irrelevant, because the Sox demographics are completely different. The Sox don't have as loyal of a fanbase where they can do a complete rebuild and still have any fans around.

My argument is that the Sox have to hire a marketing guru to change that. Good marketing is a powerful tool, they should use it. Sox fans are like that because the organization allowed them to be that way, instead of clever marketing like the Cubs did in the 80s and 90s. If the Cubs could get droves of people to go to a ballpark and pay ridiculous prices to watch a team take a giant s*** all over the baseball field, why can't the Sox do the same(minus the ridiculous prices of course) for a period of time? WTF makes them so special?

Edited April 22, 2013 by Elgin Slim

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

My response to anyone calling the Astros a positive example is going to be pretty simple. They had a game last year where 1100 people watched. On TV.

 

The cherry on top of that is the kind of fans the team does draw to the ballpark.

[caulfield12]

My response to anyone calling the Astros a positive example is going to be pretty simple. They had a game last year where 1100 people watched. On TV.

 

The 4th biggest city in the country, with no competition, drew 1100 viewers on TV for a game last year. On a weekend.

 

The Astros have 2 winning records since 2006, They have an 82 win season and an 86 win season. They've been under .500 for the last 4 years, they've sold off whatever talent they had, and they still are facing several more years of being the laughingstock of baseball and having no interest whatsoever before they'd be able to rebuild through the draft.

 

The White Sox have legit competition in their area, even if that team is also terrible. The end result of a period of 5-8 years losing by the White Sox right now is going to be the end of the White Sox. They would either be moving or close to folding. The Chicago market will not be that forgiving.

 

Oh, and welcome to the site .

 

 

The counterargument is that the Astros have lost 213 combined games the last two seasons.

 

In a year in which the White Sox were in first place for the majority of the year, they only outdrew the "no interest whatsover" Astros by less than 400,000 fans.

 

Per game, it was 24,271 vs 19,848. And the Astros are outdrawing the White Sox so far this season.

 

AND, there's a guarantee in the lease of 1.5 million in attendance written into the contract...so this whole idea of moving or being close to folding is dubious at best, not for one of the most profitable franchises in baseball over the last decade.

 

 

Balta's same argument about "no interest" will start unfolding as early as the next 7 SOX home games, where attendance figures will range in the low teens and could even challenge going below 10,000 for the first time in recent memory.

 

Sure, it COULD get worse.

 

OTOH, the only thing that avoided this rebuilding process in the first place was the injection of Alexei, Carlos Quentin, Floyd and Danks into the 2008 team...and living off Buehrle/Dye/AJ/Konerko/Crede/Rowand/Jenks as long as possible.

 

All of those former players are gone, and Konerko soon will be...so if now's not the right time, when will it be?

 

 

Who are they going to build around? Alex Rios? He's getting older, and will be be gone after 2014 or 2015 anyway.

It's either you gamble completely behind Chris Sale's arm not falling off, or you trade him and get the highest return possible.

 

 

[Marty34]

Ticket sales wise at least the Sox benefit from when the Cubs are drawing 40,000 per because if you want to see a MLB game you have to buy a Sox ticket.

[caulfield12]

It's the same theory of the movie theatre (let's say it's an IMAX to equate it with Wrigley) down the street being sold out, so if you want to see a similar product, you have to go to another theatre.

 

Now, many will argue that the White Sox are not a product substitute for the Cubs, that the crossover is limited or that "independent/casual/touristic" fans who don't have a strong affinity for either franchise are unlikely to be motivated enough to choose the Sox as a 2nd option, preferring to wait for Cubs tickets to become available.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

Ticket sales wise at least the Sox benefit from when the Cubs are drawing 40,000 per because if you want to see a MLB game you have to buy a Sox ticket.

I don't believe this at all. Can you prove it?

 

The success of the Cubs has little to no effect on the Sox. The Sox won't lose fans to the Cubs. The Sox have a pretty good core of fans. Motivating them to come to the ballpark is the issue. Watching a boring team in cold weather isn't going to do it. The Sox need to worry about the Sox and figure out what it's going to take to get that core out to more games.