What's the Best Approach to Rebuilding

[IlliniKrush]

What the Cubs do is irrelevant, because the Sox demographics are completely different. The Sox don't have as loyal of a fanbase where they can do a complete rebuild and still have any fans around.

It doesn't matter what the demographics are for the Sox and the Cubs. It's about what results in a winning ball club and a World Series. If, in the Sox offices, they think tearing down and developing is the best way to do it, then you do it, period. This isn't about keeping just enough fans coming to the park. That can't be the mindset in the front office.

 

Well no, it's not the right way to do things, at least not anymore. The new CBA has made traditional rebuilding much more difficult and risky.

 

Also, I love how some people are actually envious of the Cubs' situation. Go talk to Cubs fans and see how excited they are about where their organization currently stands. Having zero chance to win at the beginning of a season sucks balls and so does realizing that will be the case for the next three or four seasons if not even more. Most Cubs fans were on board for Theo's full rebuilding at first, but after seeing the sacrifices required first hand most are already tired of it and it's only been two years. This would be no different for White Sox fans.

What?

 

Cubs fans, at least the smart ones, do feel a lot better now than they have in recent years. They realize it will take some time, but at least there's hope. They have new ownership, they have a plan for a rebuild. They feel better now than they have in a while. If they are out of patience than they are dumb. You simply can't have a chance to win every year with what they took over.

[southsider2k5]

It doesn't matter what the demographics are for the Sox and the Cubs. It's about what results in a winning ball club and a World Series. If, in the Sox offices, they think tearing down and developing is the best way to do it, then you do it, period. This isn't about keeping just enough fans coming to the park. That can't be the mindset in the front office.

 

 

What?

 

Cubs fans, at least the smart ones, do feel a lot better now than they have in recent years. They realize it will take some time, but at least there's hope. They have new ownership, they have a plan for a rebuild. They feel better now than they have in a while. If they are out of patience than they are dumb. You simply can't have a chance to win every year with what they took over.

 

Your revenue streams are absolutely a consideration for how to build your team. It is a fairytale land to think otherwise.

[IlliniKrush]

Your revenue streams are absolutely a consideration for how to build your team. It is a fairytale land to think otherwise.

Missed the point, unsurprisingly. The attitude is develop a team that wins the world series or at least gets to the playoffs consistently. That's how you get a s*** ton of money coming in. That surpasses being "OK" for a period of years just to hope to keep a few fans coming.

 

After a while, throwing a team out there that can maybe stay competitive and win 80 games will erode the fan base. Hell, look at the attendance and attitude among fans right now.

[southsider2k5]

Missed the point, unsurprisingly. The attitude is develop a team that wins the world series or at least gets to the playoffs consistently. That's how you get a s*** ton of money coming in. That surpasses being "OK" for a period of years just to hope to keep a few fans coming.

 

After a while, throwing a team out there that can maybe stay competitive and win 80 games will erode the fan base. Hell, look at the attendance and attitude among fans right now.

 

Yes, misses the point exactly. What happened to the fan base last time they blew the team up? How long did it take to get the fan base back after that? Its easy to say blow it up and start over, like this is OOTP or something. Reality of that working differs from franchise to franchise. The Cubs can do it because they have a loyal fanbase who will deal with that. The Sox don't. The Sox fans didn't even support a team that was in first place for almost the entire season last year. If they sell off, they will lose some fans for good.

[IlliniKrush]

Yes, misses the point exactly. What happened to the fan base last time they blew the team up? How long did it take to get the fan base back after that? Its easy to say blow it up and start over, like this is OOTP or something. Reality of that working differs from franchise to franchise. The Cubs can do it because they have a loyal fanbase who will deal with that. The Sox don't. The Sox fans didn't even support a team that was in first place for almost the entire season last year. If they sell off, they will lose some fans for good.

You can debate about how to do a rebuild all you want, the point is that you have to get a winning ballclub out there. If that results in a few down years, but you have a plan in place that will work, you do it. Simply trying to tread water and be afraid to do something that in your office you believe will result in winning a world series is the wrong approach.

 

There are plenty of Cubs fans not going to games right now, which is fine, when the Cubs are competing they'll all be back and they'll make up for that revenue anyway. There are plenty of Sox fans who already aren't going, and it will just continue to decline each time they miss the playoffs.

 

The fans they "lose for good" will be back once they are in the playoffs or world series, we all know that. Or they are a first place team that for whatever reason, the fans believe in and can finish the job.

[Dick Allen]

You can debate about how to do a rebuild all you want, the point is that you have to get a winning ballclub out there. If that results in a few down years, but you have a plan in place that will work, you do it. Simply trying to tread water and be afraid to do something that in your office you believe will result in winning a world series is the wrong approach.

 

There are plenty of Cubs fans not going to games right now, which is fine, when the Cubs are competing they'll all be back and they'll make up for that revenue anyway. There are plenty of Sox fans who already aren't going, and it will just continue to decline each time they miss the playoffs.

 

The fans they "lose for good" will be back once they are in the playoffs or world series, we all know that. Or they are a first place team that for whatever reason, the fans believe in and can finish the job.

Since when was it necessary the Cubs field a winning club? To think the formula for the Cubs and White Sox is the same is crazy.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

You can debate about how to do a rebuild all you want, the point is that you have to get a winning ballclub out there. If that results in a few down years, but you have a plan in place that will work, you do it. Simply trying to tread water and be afraid to do something that in your office you believe will result in winning a world series is the wrong approach.

 

There are plenty of Cubs fans not going to games right now, which is fine, when the Cubs are competing they'll all be back and they'll make up for that revenue anyway. There are plenty of Sox fans who already aren't going, and it will just continue to decline each time they miss the playoffs.

 

The fans they "lose for good" will be back once they are in the playoffs or world series, we all know that. Or they are a first place team that for whatever reason, the fans believe in and can finish the job.

 

The problem is once you lose those fans, it makes it harder to keep any existing crop of players you can develop, because those revenues aren't there anymore. It doesn't do any good to develop the next Frank Thomas, if you have to trade him away to someone who can afford to pay him. We see that all of the time in baseball, with any number of teams littering the sidelines as failed rebuilds who instead supply players to the teams who do have fans. Again, I have yet to see any really good examples of a full rebuild actually resulting in a World Series win, in any short amount of time (even say five years). The closest example I can really see would be Tampa Bay. But that wasn't a few years worth of a rebuild. That was a period of time from 1998 to 2007 where their highest win total was 70 wins. Most of these projects end up as abject failures.

[ewokpelts]

trade whatever you can and play the rookies?

[IlliniKrush]

The problem is once you lose those fans, it makes it harder to keep any existing crop of players you can develop, because those revenues aren't there anymore. It doesn't do any good to develop the next Frank Thomas, if you have to trade him away to someone who can afford to pay him. We see that all of the time in baseball, with any number of teams littering the sidelines as failed rebuilds who instead supply players to the teams who do have fans. Again, I have yet to see any really good examples of a full rebuild actually resulting in a World Series win, in any short amount of time (even say five years). The closest example I can really see would be Tampa Bay. But that wasn't a few years worth of a rebuild. That was a period of time from 1998 to 2007 where their highest win total was 70 wins. Most of these projects end up as abject failures.

Again, you can debate about how to rebuild, or whatever you want to call it, all you want. I don't know if it's a true rebuild, but I'm definitely in favor of trading pieces that won't be here next time you actually win anything of significance. None of us know exactly what will work.

 

The point is that, if something comes up where everyone in the front office feels great about doing it, that it will bring the Sox closer to a championship, they shouldn't be prevented from doing it because someone brings up "well in the short term, it's going to result in less fans." The whole treading water thing is silly. If trading Peavy can get you pieces that will help in the future if you don't think you'll win this year or next, it shouldn't be "well it will be hard to draw fans this August if we show the fan base we gave up etc."

[Marty34]

The problem is once you lose those fans, it makes it harder to keep any existing crop of players you can develop, because those revenues aren't there anymore. It doesn't do any good to develop the next Frank Thomas, if you have to trade him away to someone who can afford to pay him. We see that all of the time in baseball, with any number of teams littering the sidelines as failed rebuilds who instead supply players to the teams who do have fans. Again, I have yet to see any really good examples of a full rebuild actually resulting in a World Series win, in any short amount of time (even say five years). The closest example I can really see would be Tampa Bay. But that wasn't a few years worth of a rebuild. That was a period of time from 1998 to 2007 where their highest win total was 70 wins. Most of these projects end up as abject failures.

 

This is backwards logic.

[flavum]

If you have a bad veteran team, you trade the veterans to get prospects and free the salary to sign new players or put it into the farm system. It doesn't matter what market you play in. That's what you do.

 

Nobody is going to the games anyway. At some point, they're going to be forced to take their medicine and take a step back in order to move forward. Right now, the Sox are stuck in the mud. They can't move.

[Dick Allen]

If you have a bad veteran team, you trade the veterans to get prospects and free the salary to sign new players or put it into the farm system. It doesn't matter what market you play in. That's what you do.

 

Nobody is going to the games anyway. At some point, they're going to be forced to take their medicine and take a step back in order to move forward. Right now, the Sox are stuck in the mud. They can't move.

If you have a bad veteran team making a lot of money, other teams don't trade anything decent for that player or assume their contracts. If the Sox want to unload guys, really good prospects aren't coming back and they will have to pay some of the contract anyway. They have been bad for 2 weeks. The freaking out is absurd.

[Jerksticks]

Alexei = FA signing out of Latin America, as was Dayan, and we've made a few of those recently.

 

CQ got here by trading Chris Carter, who at the time was another prospect with major flaws in his game who couldn't get recognition as a game-wide top-100 prospect. The guy we got in return would have had an MVP if he hadn't been angry and stupid at the same time. We're still holding talented-but-unheralded prospects other teams want, and there are always players in other organizations that have fallen out of favor. There's no reason to believe we can't come up with something, maybe not like Q, but good enough.

 

Floyd and Danks got here by trading a young SP from an area of excess (check) and trading a vet with a year remaining (check). With the right moves we can do that again.

 

Paulie we picked up via trade for a good young MLB player we developed but thought we didn't want/need. We have this also and can make that kind of deal with Viciedo if we found the right guy.

 

Jenks = waiver claim. We're in a good waiver spot now.

 

AJ & JD were smart FA signings on a budget. Hahn's best trait so far is his contract negotiation ability.

 

Out of all those players you mentioned we have developed only 3 of those players ourselves: Buehrle (38th round, 1139 overall), Rowand (1st round, 35th overall), and Crede (5th round, 137 overall). Note how the highest pick wasn't all that high and he's also the lesser of the 3.

 

Caulfield, I know you have been around here for a while. I remember you back from the WSI days. I have been on Sox boards since 2003 and the one recurring theme all these years (aside from hating ownership, the GM, and some of the best pieces of franchise history) is that the fans always want to rebuild at the first sign of trouble/weakness and yet at the same time they absolutely cannot stand losing. What the Sox have done is turn that 2003 team (remember all those rebuild calls after choking on the Twins?) and turned it into a World Champ 2 years later. Then they turned that stacked, but ultimately disappointing 2006 team into another division winner 2 years later, a veteran team of course, but one led by youth in Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Alexei. After that came the Ozzie ego years, but there is no doubt those 2011 & 2012 squads had the talent to win. We're here where we are now because the players didn't win, and so we're in another down period where we're waiting to form our next core, which BTW with potentially 4 good LHSP we're probably not too far away from.

 

What the Sox have done, at least since I've been hanging around these miserable online fan forums, is basically spit in the faces of the rebuilders again and again and prove that they don't need to do it Cubbie style (another name for rape IMO) and can put out good, quality playoff type teams after short down periods by capitalizing on their scounting ability, mainly with players in other organizations. By making that list you've pretty much admitted they've done that but yet here we all are with our hate and anger and fire breath, and I don't think that's called for.

 

This is pretty spot on.

 

I think the team is underperforming quite a bit right now. The pitching looks good, now and in the future. We should give Hahn more time to make the tough calls with our young position players.

[flavum]

If you have a bad veteran team making a lot of money, other teams don't trade anything decent for that player or assume their contracts. If the Sox want to unload guys, really good prospects aren't coming back and they will have to pay some of the contract anyway. They have been bad for 2 weeks. The freaking out is absurd.

 

You can have a bad veteran team, and still have a couple good trading chips. I'm not saying all 25 guys on the team are bad.

 

So if the Sox don't turn this around, come June or July if/when they know they can't win this season, yes, you trade Peavy and Rios if you get the right offers. You trade Floyd, Thornton and Crain to get them off the books.

 

And as far as two weeks and freaking out....there is no freaking out. They just aren't good enough to win a division or a wildcard. They weren't good enough last year, or the year before, or the year before, or the year before that. This is a problem that is bigger than two weeks of bad baseball. They're trying to do the same thing over and over...field a mediocre team and hope to get career years. It's not happening.

[caulfield12]

I think the "freaking out" is more than anything based on Dunn's regression to 2011 form...

 

And the fact that Konerko's just not likely to be the same hitter he was 2-3 years ago.

 

Then Beckham and Viciedo out...you can have the best pitching in the AL, and I'm not 100% certain we would still make the playoffs with the line-ups we've been putting out there the last two days.

 

And watching Flowers' "all or nothing" approach, which is great when it works, but maddeningly frustrating.

 

And knowing Gillaspie won't hit over .300 month after month.

 

 

 

Yes, Keppinger and DeAza SHOULD get better. But, there are just a ton of question marks right now. Alexei is Alexei...you know what you're getting with him. I just wish we'd see more walks/patience at the top of the order. Part of it is simply "bad luck" with Keppinger, but everyone expected him NOT to be the same hitter he was in 2012 if he was exposed to playing every day, against all types of pitching.

 

It's just like buying a mutual fund that returned 72% last year and expecting the same result again this year when last year was likely to be the outlier or anomaly.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Yes, Keppinger and DeAza SHOULD get better. But, there are just a ton of question marks right now. Alexei is Alexei...you know what you're getting with him. I just wish we'd see more walks/patience at the top of the order. Part of it is simply "bad luck" with Keppinger, but everyone expected him NOT to be the same hitter he was in 2012 if he was exposed to playing every day, against all types of pitching.

 

It's just like buying a mutual fund that returned 72% last year and expecting the same result again this year when last year was likely to be the outlier or anomaly.

Jeff Keppinger has a sub.200 BABIP over the first 3 weeks of the season. He's making decent contact but it's constantly right at someone.

 

It really isn't smart to project his season when that's the case.

[southsider2k5]

This is backwards logic.

 

Its called "reality".

[southsider2k5]

If you have a bad veteran team, you trade the veterans to get prospects and free the salary to sign new players or put it into the farm system. It doesn't matter what market you play in. That's what you do.

 

Nobody is going to the games anyway. At some point, they're going to be forced to take their medicine and take a step back in order to move forward. Right now, the Sox are stuck in the mud. They can't move.

 

Go back and look at White Sox historical attendance. It can go a LOT lower.

[Cali]

The "fans" that magically appeared in 05/06, then disappeared, then had a magic 8 ball last year and saw they would choke in September and refused to come out, would be back if they could get a consistent winner, via full rebuild half rebuild, 1/8 rebuild whatever the f***.

 

The worry about permanently losing some core fans from a rebuild isn't really a concern for me because let's be honest, the core isn't that big to begin with and the team still makes $$$, can afford a big payroll (of crappy players, but still...) and the MLB hasn't contracted or moved the team because of attendance and won't ever do so.

 

"Rebuilding on the Fly" is an insult to those core fans. It's a fingers crossed, blowing on a dandelion, wishing on a shooting star gambit that is only resulting in frustration.

[caulfield12]

Jeff Keppinger has a sub.200 BABIP over the first 3 weeks of the season. He's making decent contact but it's constantly right at someone.

 

It really isn't smart to project his season when that's the case.

 

 

But we do know SOME things....

 

1) He's striking out much more frequently than he did last year.

2) His line drive percentage and power is down, even from last year.

3) He's having to play everyday against some very unfavorable pitching match-ups.

4) His defense will never measure up to Beckham's at 2B.

 

Even if he improves 50%, he's still a complementary player...he doesn't kill a playoff team, but he has to be in a line-up where there are 4-5 other big boppers. Right now, we only have Rios and an aging Konerko to rely on.

 

Theoretically, that other bopper could be Dunn, it could be Viciedo (assuming he's 100% healthy and actually can figure out righties and fastballs over 90 MPH), it could be Flowers, but those three and Beckham being out and DeAza trying to do too much, it's adding up to a bad mixture of a line-up.

 

Now Gillaspie's starting to come back to earth, and Rios won't be an MVP candidate all season long...at least we can't quite count on that happening, can we?

 

It's like whack-a-mole, solve one problem in the line-up and 2-3 others spring up to take its place.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The "fans" that magically appeared in 05/06, then disappeared, then had a magic 8 ball last year and saw they would choke in September and refused to come out, would be back if they could get a consistent winner, via full rebuild half rebuild, 1/8 rebuild whatever the f***.

 

The worry about permanently losing some core fans from a rebuild isn't really a concern for me because let's be honest, the core isn't that big to begin with and the team still makes $$$, can afford a big payroll (of crappy players, but still...) and the MLB hasn't contracted or moved the team because of attendance and won't ever do so.

 

"Rebuilding on the Fly" is an insult to those core fans. It's a fingers crossed, blowing on a dandelion, wishing on a shooting star gambit that is only resulting in frustration.

 

Considering there are basically no examples of a total tear down actually working in a relatively short period of time...

[Marty34]

[/b]

 

Considering there are basically no examples of a total tear down actually working in a relatively short period of time...

 

Do you consider dealing Peavy, Rios, and floyd a total teardown?

[Cali]

[/b]

 

Considering there are basically no examples of a total tear down actually working in a relatively short period of time...

 

I actually don't care how long it takes. I can't sit through these seasons again and again.

 

I'm a "core fan" and would much rather watch a team of prospects then what is currently on the field. That is far more interesting to me...

[southsider2k5]

I actually don't care how long it takes. I can't sit through these seasons again and again.

 

I'm a "core fan" and would much rather watch a team of prospects then what is currently on the field. That is far more interesting to me...

 

But you will sit through 60 win seasons and continue to buy tickets? If that is the case, you are the exception, not the rule.

[Wedge]

To be honest, I think the White Sox are in a pretty decent place organizationally right now. For whatever reason, it seems like we have an incredibly solid pipeline of pitching talent that provides our MLB roster with anything from frontline starters to quality relievers.

 

Where we really, really struggle is producing quality position players. We've basically got Viciedo, Ramirez, Crede, Rowand, and Beckham to show for the last 10 years or so. Yikes. I know it's tough, but that part of the equation has to get rectified.