MAY IS HERE!

[witesoxfan]

That's one of the biggest baseball myths I know. Maddux was nasty. Maddux was a Grienke better stuff. Maddux is 10th all time in k's.

 

I think he was referencing old Greg Maddux - the one, who, from 2002 to 2008, had a K/9 above 5.4 just once.

 

Beyond that, Maddux wasn't proficient about striking people out. In the prime of his career, from ages 25 through 32, he struck out 7 batters per 9, but he was never really much above 6 an inning. Maddux had the best command of any pitcher of his generation, and he was one of the best of all time. Getting calls 4-6 inches off the plate helps too. The fact that he threw 5008 innings (13th all time) contributes just as much to that.

 

I really don't think a late career Maddux is a bad comparison though.

[southsider2k5]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 1m

 

Every team has scored 8 or more runs in a game at least once this season except the #Cubs, #WhiteSox and the #Dodgers

[TaylorStSox]

I think he was referencing old Greg Maddux - the one, who, from 2002 to 2008, had a K/9 above 5.4 just once.

 

Beyond that, Maddux wasn't proficient about striking people out. In the prime of his career, from ages 25 through 32, he struck out 7 batters per 9, but he was never really much above 6 an inning. Maddux had the best command of any pitcher of his generation, and he was one of the best of all time. Getting calls 4-6 inches off the plate helps too. The fact that he threw 5008 innings (13th all time) contributes just as much to that.

 

I really don't think a late career Maddux is a bad comparison though.

I guess it's pretty subjective to how you define "stuff." Maddux had moderate velocity and movement on everything. That's having good stuff. Glavine didn't have good stuff, but excellent command.

[Marty34]

Add to that six years of team control, and that has real value. A guy like that might actually fetch more on the trade market than a John Danks who has a big contract.

 

Nobody would get within 60.5 feet of Danks contract. Axelrod has little if any value.

[fathom]

Nobody would get within 60.5 feet of Danks contract. Axelrod has little if any value.

 

Yep, Axelrod has way more value to the Sox as a 5th starter than he would on the trade market.

[witesoxfan]

I guess it's pretty subjective to how you define "stuff." Maddux had moderate velocity and movement on everything. That's having good stuff. Glavine didn't have good stuff, but excellent command.

 

Perhaps the way to compare them is command within the strikezone versus command of an at bat. I watched both pitch extensively, but in their advanced age. The numbers indicate that they stuck to a lot of the same principles that got them 300+ wins. Just by looking at the numbers (and what I heard/noticed while watching) is that Glavine primarily stuck with going outside, outside, outside. It was a rare day when he'd come in on you. Meanwhile, Maddux just had absolutely pristine command within the zone and could throw any pitch at any time for a strike, and they moved too much to be able to touch them.

 

That, and they both got pitches 4-6 inches off the plate prior to QuestTec.

 

 

I still don't think comparing Axelrod to an older Maddux is a bad comparison.

[TaylorStSox]

Perhaps the way to compare them is command within the strikezone versus command of an at bat. I watched both pitch extensively, but in their advanced age. The numbers indicate that they stuck to a lot of the same principles that got them 300+ wins. Just by looking at the numbers (and what I heard/noticed while watching) is that Glavine primarily stuck with going outside, outside, outside. It was a rare day when he'd come in on you. Meanwhile, Maddux just had absolutely pristine command within the zone and could throw any pitch at any time for a strike, and they moved too much to be able to touch them.

 

That, and they both got pitches 4-6 inches off the plate prior to QuestTec.

 

 

I still don't think comparing Axelrod to an older Maddux is a bad comparison.

I don't think it's that bad of a comparison either. I was addressing the idea that Maddux thrived with average stuff, command and moxie, which just isn't true IMO.

 

A stat I'd love to see is swinging k's in 2 strike counts. That would be an excellent way to show how good a pitchers stuff really is.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think it's that bad of a comparison either. I was addressing the idea that Maddux thrived with average stuff, command and moxie, which just isn't true IMO.

 

A stat I'd love to see is swinging k's in 2 strike counts. That would be an excellent way to show how good a pitchers stuff really is.

 

Off-shoot quick here regarding Maddux - my favorite Greg Maddux moment comes from a really obscure highlight - couldn't tell you the date or the guy he was facing. Batter was left handed, and Maddux threw a two-seamer that looked like it was headed right at the dude, tailed back over the plate, and caught the inside corner for a called strike 3. Dude couldn't believe it because it was off the plate (I keep referencing that 4-6, because Maddux got quite a few off the plate), but it was close enough that the dude has to swing with 2 strikes on him. It was beautiful.

 

Anyways, regarding the 2-strike date, I'd like to see it too, but it's obviously going to be skewed early on. As of now, it would appear that teams are sitting back on Axelrod's stuff and making him work - they aren't swinging at pitches outside or inside the zone (25.6% for O-Swing for Axelrod/28.5% O-Swing for Average; 58.2%/61.9% z-Swing for Axe/Avg) - and for good reason too, because they are putting everything they swing at into play - 67.7%/62.9% O-Contact, 93.1%/87% z-Contact). I think, to some extent, this works to Axelrod's advantage so long as he's throwing strikes. It seems obvious, but when he gets in front, he dictates the action and can make guys swing at pitches they don't want to (or think they want to, but really don't). When he starts getting behind, he is forced to come over the plate and teams will feast on that. It can work, but it's not a high ceiling type of pitching style.

 

If you want to believe that this success is not a mirage of some type, I have 2 reasons:

1) Cutting back on the slider - Axelrod loves his slider (to the tune of 36.5% sliders thrown in his career compared to 42.7% 4 and 2 seam fastballs), but this year, his fastball usage is up to 44.8%, while his slider percentage is down to 30.6%. His curve and change usage are up slightly too, though not signicantly so. Still, having to essentially guess between fastball, slider, and some other offspeed pitch makes it a little uneasy at the plate because the pitches look the same.

2) He's throwing his 4-seam fastball as opposed to his 2-seam fastball. I'm simply guessing here, but I imagine last year guys were either looking slider away and fighting off or taking inside pitches, or they're looking 2-seamer inside and fighting off or taking any outside pitches. They'll miss more often because they're guessing, but when they hit, they hit it hard. However, the 4-seasm fastball shows similar locations and will cause hitters to be more apt to hit balls off the end of the bat or, if looking for a fastball, to roll over the slider. This is something teams will adjust to, so Axelrod will need to come back with adjustments of his own too. I think the first step would be refining that changeup to the point where he can use it between 15-20% of the time.

[Marty34]

I think this is an important point and one of the factors that led to my initial post. If we were at 7 starters, I don't think by any means we would keep the "best" 5.

 

I think Sale and Danks have 0% chance of getting moved.

 

Quintana and Santiago have a little chance

 

Peavy is up in the air - 10-30% chance

 

Floyd is probably at 90%.

 

The most likely scenario is Floyd getting moved and Santiago moving back into the bullpen. Things will get seriously interesting if Santiago excels in the rotation or if we suffer another loss.

 

This scenario leaves us at:

 

1.) Sale

2.) Peavy

3.) Danks

4.) Quintana

5.) Axelrod

 

with the amount of help the offense needs I can see the near future rotation shaking out like this:

 

1.) Sale

2.) not on roster

3.) Quintana or Santiago. (Deal one to help offense)

4.) not on roster

5.) Danks

[Chicago White Sox]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 1m

 

Every team has scored 8 or more runs in a game at least once this season except the #Cubs, #WhiteSox and the #Dodgers

Damn, who gave up 8 runs to the Marlins?

[cabiness42]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 1m

 

Every team has scored 8 or more runs in a game at least once this season except the #Cubs, #WhiteSox and the #Dodgers

 

Yeah, you never want to be on a list of three teams if one of them is the Cubs.

 

[LittleHurt05]

Damn, who gave up 8 runs to the Marlins?

 

The Twins AND the Nationals

[southsider2k5]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 6h

 

Chris Sale threw 70 fastballs on Weds. The avg. speed for 2-seamer was 93.8 MPH. Averaged 92.2 in April. http://bit.ly/161idlz

[LittleHurt05]

Sox are undefeated in May

[southsider2k5]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2h

 

Bad luck: Lowest batting averages, balls in play. #BlueJays .262, #Marlins .270, #WhiteSox .271, #Mets .275, #Cubs .275, #Nationals .275.