Desperate times call for...three bold moves

[caulfield12]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/atlanta-brave...-043100830.html

 

 

 

First bold move.

 

Trade Adam Dunn to the Atlanta Braves for BJ Upton and $30 million (to be paid in three installments...$9 million in 2014, $10 million in 2015, $11 million in 2016).

 

Obviously Greg Walker isn't going to "fix" Upton, and Manto can't fix Dunn again.

 

Dunn gets to go back to the NL, where he found success throughout his career. Upton gets to play in a less difficult AL division, where he's more confident and familiar.

 

Outfield becomes DeAza in LF, Upton in CF and Rios in RF, with Viciedo/Gillaspie sharing time at DH (Viciedo could also rotate in LF/1B, Gillaspie at 3B, possibly 1B).

 

We have to shore up our outfield defense, and we've got to get rid of Dunn somehow.

 

We're on the hook for $30 million more of Dunn (including this season), the Braves would get out of $42.5 million committed to Upton.

 

Our net risk would be $12.5 million MORE in payroll commitment, but the odds of fixing Upton and making him a credible player in the AL Central are 10X higher than Dunn getting straightened out again. Plus, we'd get a player closer to his prime who would be around for the next five seasons and could be another player to build around...along with Viciedo and possibly Beckham at SS.

 

Fresh start/change of scenery for both players. Maybe it would spark the Sox.

 

No amount of money's going to undo the damage of a .130ish hitting Dunn in the 3-4-5 spots in our line-up for the next 2 seasons.

 

 

Second bold move. Alexei Ramirez traded for salary relief, Beckham moved to SS full-time for the remainder of 2013.

 

 

 

Wait until mid-July to decide the fate/s of Flowers, Rios, DeAza, Thornton, Peavy, Crain and Lindstrom. Let's also see where John Danks is in his recovery so we can decide whether to hold onto Jake or try to compete without him in 2014.

 

It's worth noting how badly the 2010 team started out before catching fire. That team was 1-2 weeks from a full-scale firesale. Even the 2001 team without Thomas started out 14-29 and made it back to over .500 in July, for that matter.

 

 

 

Third bold move. Package Addison Reed and Jake Peavy to get the best possible package back if the team's completely out of the hunt in July and Upton still appears a lost cause until the offseason...Reed might never have more value to the franchise than he does right now. But, if you know your White Sox history, you know every closer's replaceable.

[flavum]

I honestly don't think any team would want Adam Dunn at any price.

 

He's going to get paid until the end of 2014, and then he's done with baseball.

[Brian]

Why would the Braves want Dunn when they have Freddie Freeman at 1st?

[Lillian]

What kind of assurances have the Braves given Justin that his brother won't be traded?

How might such a move effect Justin's performance?

 

At least the Dunn contract will be off the books after next season. Taking on Upton's contract could be a problem until 2018.

Edited May 12, 2013 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

Why would the Braves want Dunn when they have Freddie Freeman at 1st?

 

 

They would have to play him in LF, possibly RF.

 

Heyward in RF, Justin Upton to CF, Dunn in LF probably. Or Heyward in CF, Dunn in LF, Upton in RF.

 

Nobody said it would be the ideal solution...from a defensive standpoint.

 

And Dunn failed in 2011 under Walker, so that goes against the grain as well.

[caulfield12]

What kind of assurances have the Braves given Justin that his brother won't be traded?

How might such a move effect Justin's performance?

 

At least the Dunn contract will be off the books after next season. Taking on Upton's contract could be a problem until 2018.

 

 

 

If we received $30 back, the net payroll addition would only be $12.5 million over those future years. That's more than manageable.

 

We're on the hook for $30 million to Dunn anyway. It's a calculated risk or gamble, and a GM would be staking his job on that kind of move (like acquiring Vernon Wells' deal from the Blue Jays).

[southsider2k5]

After the Nick Swisher disaster, why would we look to trade our players for nothing at their lowest value?

[maggsmaggs]

Honestly, if I am Hahn, I trade every asset you can except Sale, Quintana and Santiago. This team needs a major overhaul. We need prospects and we need to a couple of top-five drafts picks in back-to-back years so that we can rebuild. It's brutal watching this team now, so I really don't care if we are even worse if it means a better future. As is, we have a lackluster major league team coupled with probably the worst farm system in baseball. Honestly, there is no choice but to fire sale and try to rebuild, in my opinion. But SS said, you have to be smart when trading the players.

Edited May 12, 2013 by maggsmaggs

[caulfield12]

After the Nick Swisher disaster, why would we look to trade our players for nothing at their lowest value?

 

 

Because we're buying equally low on another player who will contribute more to our future in Upton. It's a new GM, and the past is not always prelude.

 

It's a calculated risk, like assuming the Rios contract. Or trading for an injured Peavy. Or signing John Danks and Chris Sale to long-term extensions.

 

But having 2011/2013 Adam Dunn on the roster and hitting 3rd/4th/5th until doomsday is going to do more than merely $30 million in damage to the payroll.

 

It's going to kill the interest of all but the most die-hard fans. It's a business. At some point, the ROI or cost-benefit analysis of getting rid of Dunn is going to be more than the potential payoff of him POSSIBLY turning it around.

 

It didn't happen in 2011, and he had the appendectomy excuse.

 

This is not just 2013, it's for most of 2012 as well...after the hot 2+ month stretch that carried him statistically for a large part of the year.

 

Things finally turned around with Alex Rios....but the Las Vegas odds of it happening with Dunn AGAIN have to be less than 15%.

Edited May 12, 2013 by caulfield12

[Lillian]

I think that Caulfield's argument makes sense, if I understand it correctly. I guess the point is that the only way the Sox can likely rid themselves of the Dunn

contract is to trade him in exchange for some other team's bad contract. If that could realistically be accomplished, and the player offered some positive benefit to the team, it might be worth it. As it stands now, Dunn is not only incapable of making any positive contribution, but he is killing the offense.

 

The only thing that I wonder is whether or not it might make even more sense to simply not play him. Why couldn't we just treat him as though he were an injured player, and go on without him? At least it would afford an opportunity for another player to get some playing time.

[caulfield12]

I think that Caulfield's argument makes sense, if I understand it correctly. I guess the point is that the only way the Sox can likely rid themselves of the Dunn

contract is to trade him in exchange for some other team's bad contract. If that could realistically be accomplished, and the player offered some positive benefit to the team, it might be worth it. As it stands now, Dunn is not only incapable of making any positive contribution, but he is killing the offense.

 

The only thing that I wonder is whether or not it might make even more sense to simply not play him. Why couldn't we just treat him as though he were an injured player, and go on without him? At least it would afford an opportunity for another player to get some playing time.

 

That would be fine if we had anyone on our major league, Charlotte or Birmingham roster who could be a capable DH right now.

 

Black and Wilkins are long shots, but definitely not ready for PT yet.

 

Maybe Phegley's the best bet...for now, but he might be needed for catcher. He needs to prove he can hit consistently for at least 2-3 months at the AAA level first.

 

Theoretically, it would be Wise, but he will go south if played extensively against RH and LH pitching. Not to mention his age...and the fact that what we get out of him in the short term (advantageously) would be more than offset negatively by shutting down Dunn, essentially.

Edited May 12, 2013 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Why would the Braves trade for a guy who is worse than the guy they are trading and send money back? If Rick Hahn can get rid of Adam Dunn's contract, he deserves a lifetime contract.

[JohnCangelosi]

I like the idea of moving Alexei for Matt Adams from the Cardinals. The guy is 23, tears the cover off the ball and the Cards don't have a position for him anywhere. Not sure if it's realistic or not but he's a LH power bat with big upside and could be our future First Baseman.

[flavum]

I like the idea of moving Alexei for Matt Adams from the Cardinals. The guy is 23, tears the cover off the ball and the Cards don't have a position for him anywhere. Not sure if it's realistic or not but he's a LH power bat with big upside and could be our future First Baseman.

 

He's 25 in August, but yeah, I'd take that.

 

But is he just another Andy Wilkins which we already have?

Edited May 12, 2013 by flavum

[caulfield12]

Why would the Braves trade for a guy who is worse than the guy they are trading and send money back? If Rick Hahn can get rid of Adam Dunn's contract, he deserves a lifetime contract.

 

 

 

Have you seen Upton's stats?

 

Don't you think a lot of NL teams believe he might do better back in the senior circuit?

 

 

The White Sox are never going to take on an extra $42.5 million commitment for Upton. Maybe it's not $30 million we would be asking for, but there has to be a number between 0 and $30,000,000 that would satisfy both parties (at some point soon).

[Dick Allen]

Have you seen Upton's stats?

 

Don't you think a lot of NL teams believe he might do better back in the senior circuit?

 

 

The White Sox are never going to take on an extra $42.5 million commitment for Upton. Maybe it's not $30 million we would be asking for, but there has to be a number between 0 and $30,000,000 that would satisfy both parties (at some point soon).

It is a small sample size. Dunn has those same stats in 2011, the last 4 months of 2012, and 2013. At least Upton can run and field.

 

Put it this way, anyone a team would be willing to trade for Adam Dunn, and send money, you probably want no part.

Edited May 12, 2013 by Dick Allen

[Jake]

If they traded Upton, they would want minor league parts or pitching back. They're trying to make room for Gattis, not have an old fat guy taking Gattis' at bats

[elrockinMT]

there isn't anything bold about crazy

[Balta1701]

So let's see...the Sox are losing games because of poor, sloppy, ineffective defense.

 

The solution...the Sox should take the guy leading the team in defensive WAR, trade him for scraps, take a guy who is a legitimately solid 2b, move him to a position he hasn't played in 5 years, and viola...success!

[Marty34]

So let's see...the Sox are losing games because of poor, sloppy, ineffective defense.

 

The solution...the Sox should take the guy leading the team in defensive WAR, trade him for scraps, take a guy who is a legitimately solid 2b, move him to a position he hasn't played in 5 years, and viola...success!

 

Alexei Ramirez is not going to be the SS on the next Sox playoff team. I'm surprised you disagree.

[Balta1701]

Alexei Ramirez is not going to be the SS on the next Sox playoff team. I'm surprised you disagree.

Why are you surprised I'd disagree? I'm not surprised one iota that you'd disagree. The Sox could have a 10 game lead in the division and you'd think the solution is to trade Alexei Ramirez.

[Marty34]

Why are you surprised I'd disagree? I'm not surprised one iota that you'd disagree. The Sox could have a 10 game lead in the division and you'd think the solution is to trade Alexei Ramirez.

 

That's not true at all. How do you rebuild this team around Ramirez in order to win 90 games?

[winninguglyin83]

I just checked.

 

Even the Chattanooga Lookouts said they'll pass on the Donkey.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

There's no way Dunn is going to be moved. Even for a guy struggling as bad as Upton is, he's still only 28, and gives you good defense. Dunn is on the wrong side of 30, and terrible in the OF; literally provides no value to any team right now. Why anyone would want a reclamation project in Dunn at this point in his career is beyond me. I doubt the Sox could even get someone to take Dunn off their hands if they agreed to pay 100% of what's left on that contract. He's just one of those players that hit a wall and declined over night. Same thing happened to Dye after the All-Star break in 2009.

 

I agree with Ramirez. I'm not sure how long Jeter is out, but I wonder if the Yankees would be a good fit?

[Balta1701]

That's not true at all. How do you rebuild this team around Ramirez in order to win 90 games?

Put the entire roster through another intensive fundamentals based spring training. They don't sleep until they hit a cutoff man. That got the team to 85 wins last year on its own.

 

Find a bat that Marty doesn't want (since Marty thought adding Hamilton would have been a great idea last offseason).