Should White Sox Hold or Fold?

[gatnom]

I also can't see the Sox having as small of a payroll as the Marlins, Pirates and Astros have had during their rebuilding years. Heck, just having Danks on the roster is more money than anyone on those teams were getting paid.

 

I agree.

 

 

[Balta1701]

17-19 on this date last year with zero run differential. It's not like the Sox are on the same pace they were last year (15-21, -19 run differential).

You want to know something really scary?

 

The Sox are through 1/5 of the season this year. They've given up 17 unearned runs so far.

 

The entire last year, the Sox gave up 30 unearned runs. I don't know how to look up the unearned run stat for last year through this time, but let's assume they were evenly distributed. That would mean for the first 1/5 of the season last year, the Sox would have given up 6 unearned runs.

 

Based on that estimate...11 of those 19 additional runs given up are due to extra unearned runs.

[fathom]

You want to know something really scary?

 

The Sox are through 1/5 of the season this year. They've given up 17 unearned runs so far.

 

The entire last year, the Sox gave up 30 unearned runs. I don't know how to look up the unearned run stat for last year through this time, but let's assume they were evenly distributed. That would mean for the first 1/5 of the season last year, the Sox would have given up 6 unearned runs.

 

Based on that estimate...11 of those 19 additional runs given up are due to extra unearned runs.

 

Good stuff, it's crazy there's been so many unearned runs already. Also, that doesn't take into account all the extra runs that have scored due to bad plays in the field that haven't been given an error. Last night was a perfect example of that.

[Balta1701]

I also can't see the Sox having as small of a payroll as the Marlins, Pirates and Astros have had during their rebuilding years. Heck, just having Danks on the roster is more money than anyone on those teams were getting paid.

Why do you assume that the White Sox will be able to completely tear down and then rebuild to being competitive in 3 years? The Astros, one of the examples you cite, are on their way to their 3rd straight 60 win or fewer season. I can't imagine anyone who thinks the Marlins will be competitive next year either.

[Balta1701]

Good stuff, it's crazy there's been so many unearned runs already. Also, that doesn't take into account all the extra runs that have scored due to bad plays in the field that haven't been given an error. Last night was a perfect example of that.

Yup.

 

Let's put it this way...the offense has been much worse than last year...but the pitching has basically been good enough to totally offset that...

 

If that's the case, then looking at run differential, the entire reason the Sox are worse than this point last year is that they can't catch the **** ball.

[fathom]

Why do you assume that the White Sox will be able to completely tear down and then rebuild to being competitive in 3 years? The Astros, one of the examples you cite, are on their way to their 3rd straight 60 win or fewer season. I can't imagine anyone who thinks the Marlins will be competitive next year either.

 

I don't think they're going to completely tear down and rebuild in the fashion the 3 teams I mentioned did. The Astros tried to trade any valuable piece they had in Pence, Oswalt, Wandy, etc. The Sox, even if they starting unloading the likes of Peavy, Ramirez, Rios, etc. would still have a very good starting rotation in place and enough money to spend to upgrade the offense. I'm not in the "unload the franchise" camp, but rather I'd like to see them accept that it's just not their season if this continues the next 30-40 games from now and try to bring in some young talent to help with the future of the organization. As we've seen from the past with the Sox, the young talent isn't just to develop into everyday players for the Sox, but it's a vital resource they use to trade for established MLB players (since they don't exactly love getting into bidding wars for outside FA).

Edited May 14, 2013 by fathom

[Chicago White Sox]

The reality is that whatever the White Sox decide to do during/after this season, if we don't want to sink to the depths of the Pirates and such, they need to not f*** it up. The reason the future seems bleak right now is that nearly everything KW has done since 2008 has backfired to some degree or another. It doesn't matter if they rebuild or compete or whatever you want to call it. If the moves turn out like Dunn, Peavy, Rios, Molina, Danks, Thornton, etc. we will suck regardless of the strategy used, and the hemorrhaging of fans will continue. That is the bottom line.

 

I happen to think that selling off in July if we are still in last place is the best move in the long term for the team. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see us competing next year if we can't this year.

And why can't we improve the offense in the offseason? If you head into next offseason with Sale, Peavy, Danks, Quintana, & Santiago under contract, not only do you have a starting pitcher available to trade for a bat, but you also have $35+ million coming off the books to work with. So unlike this past year, Hahn will actually have the resources necessary to improve the offense. Why don't we see what Hahn is actually capable of in his 2nd year as GM before writing off the team.

[fathom]

Also, I know you mentioned the next 3 years balta with the Sox being competitive. It seems like a daunting task to put together a better team on paper than what the Tigers should be able to put on the field during that time period. If this was the AL Central of the last decade, there would be more optimism around here about the future in my opinion. Baseball is cyclical, and for many years, the Sox were probably the most talented team in the division while the Tigers, Royals, etc. were futile. Now, it's their turn to have the most talented teams in the division.

[Balta1701]

I don't think they're going to completely tear down and rebuild in the fashion the 3 teams I mentioned did. The Astros tried to trade any valuable piece they had in Pence, Oswalt, Wandy, etc. The Sox, even if they starting unloading the likes of Peavy, Ramirez, Rios, etc. would still have a very good starting rotation in place and enough money to spend to upgrade the offense. I'm not in the "unload the franchise" camp, but rather I'd like to see them accept that it's just not their season if this continues the next 30-40 games from now and try to bring in some young talent to help with the future of the organization. As we've seen from the past with the Sox, the young talent isn't just to develop into everyday players for the Sox, but it's a vital resource they use to trade for established MLB players (since they don't exactly love getting into bidding wars for outside FA).

Remember the website you're talking to though. A substantial number of people here seem to think that the White Sox should be following the 2011 Marlins model for what to do with their players.

[fathom]

On the subject of signing free agents, count me in for trying to extend Beckham to a 3-yr deal if it's team-friendly in terms of money. He's not great by any means, but he's probably better overall than anything you could get via free agency and allows you to use significant resources elsewhere. Of course, I'm the idiot who started saying last week that I wish they'd give Beckham some practice time at SS to see how he'd do there in case they use Alexei as a trade chip (for Matt Adams). With that said, if there's a team out there that wants to trade for him and give up something promising, then you have to consider that.

Edited May 14, 2013 by fathom

[Marty34]

And why can't we improve the offense in the offseason? If you head into next offseason with Sale, Peavy, Danks, Quintana, & Santiago under contract, not only do you have a starting pitcher available to trade for a bat, but you also have $35+ million coming off the books to work with. So unlike this past year, Hahn will actually have the resources necessary to improve the offense. Why don't we see what Hahn is actually capable of in his 2nd year as GM before writing off the team.

 

Who do you improve the offense with on the list of free agents for next year? Sign as many free agents as they can, but no one for more than 2 years as that list is a bunch of old guys.

[Marty34]

Remember the website you're talking to though. A substantial number of people here seem to think that the White Sox should be following the 2011 Marlins model for what to do with their players.

 

you must be in the Dick Allen 2013 Jays camp. That's worked out splendidly.

[fathom]

Who do you improve the offense with on the list of free agents for next year? Sign as many free agents as they can, but no one for more than 2 years as that list is a bunch of old guys.

 

Looking at the top 20 free agents for this coming season list on mlbtraderumors, and there aren't a lot of answers there to the holes the Sox are likely to have. Cano, Choo and Ellsbury aren't likely options due to the money they'll get from the usual big spenders. As I just mentioned, one of the main reasons to use someone like Peavy as a trade chip is to get back prospects that you could potentially then use to acquire everyday MLB offensive players.

[Jake]

Alexei for Matt Adams is my favorite thing I've heard all day. Count me in.

[Dick Allen]

you must be in the Dick Allen 2013 Jays camp. That's worked out splendidly.

Isn't the Blue Jays record exactly where you want the Sox to be? Reasons to whine for a decade is heaven.

[fathom]

Alexei for Matt Adams is my favorite thing I've heard all day. Count me in.

 

I'm all about finding a way to get some of the Cardinals players into the organization. I was hoping the Sox were going to try and get Matt Carpenter this offseason to play 3b for them.

[Dick Allen]

Looking at the top 20 free agents for this coming season list on mlbtraderumors, and there aren't a lot of answers there to the holes the Sox are likely to have. Cano, Choo and Ellsbury aren't likely options due to the money they'll get from the usual big spenders. As I just mentioned, one of the main reasons to use someone like Peavy as a trade chip is to get back prospects that you could potentially then use to acquire everyday MLB offensive players.

Granderson would love to play for the Sox. I know one of his best friends. Kendrys Morales would fit into Paulie's spot. There's a couple that probably wouldn't break the bank.

[fathom]

Granderson would love to play for the Sox.

 

There's no bigger fan of Granderson than me, as I grew up playing against him. He could fit into CF, you're correct. If anything, his injury this year might have made it more likely the Yanks wouldn't go after him. Great DA, you've gotten my hopes up now

 

[southsider2k5]

17-19 on this date last year with zero run differential. It's not like the Sox are on the same pace they were last year (15-21, -19 run differential).

 

They have also played about as badly as is possible, with easy room for improvement.

[southsider2k5]

you must be in the Dick Allen 2013 Jays camp. That's worked out splendidly.

 

As has your Astros project, minus any Cubans.

[Marty34]

Looking at the top 20 free agents for this coming season list on mlbtraderumors, and there aren't a lot of answers there to the holes the Sox are likely to have. Cano, Choo and Ellsbury aren't likely options due to the money they'll get from the usual big spenders. As I just mentioned, one of the main reasons to use someone like Peavy as a trade chip is to get back prospects that you could potentially then use to acquire everyday MLB offensive players.

 

Exactly, peavy has to go whether your plan is to compete next year or rebuild.

[fathom]

Exactly, peavy has to go whether your plan is to compete next year or rebuild.

 

This team has a chance to survive on the mound next year without Peavy. I can't see how this offense can survive without serious additions. Someone like Gillaspie or Beckham should be the worst hitters on your team if you want to contend.

[Marty34]

Granderson would love to play for the Sox. I know one of his best friends. Kendrys Morales would fit into Paulie's spot. There's a couple that probably wouldn't break the bank.

 

No thanks, too old.

[Marty34]

This team has a chance to survive on the mound next year without Peavy. I can't see how this offense can survive without serious additions. Someone like Gillaspie or Beckham should be the worst hitters on your team if you want to contend.

 

And you can't rebuild the offense through free agency.

[fathom]

And you can't rebuild the offense through free agency.

 

You can patch some holes, but judging by the farm system, there are no significant instant contributors on the offensive side coming for a few years (if at all). Sox are going to have to find some cost-controlled offensive starters, which is why they absolutely have to allow Flowers the whole year to try and prove he can play at this level.