In the event of a rebuild, stop comparing the Sox

[iamshack]

They also had a tougher schedule last year, and had played the Tigers 8 games. They were 4-4 against them, and then would go 2-8 the rest of the way.

 

By my calculations for competing, the Sox were 2 games behind where they should have been last year after 37 games. This year, we're 4 games behind where we should be.

 

I'm kind of already booking 8-11 against the Tigers this year as a best case scenario. If you look at it that way, the Sox are 24-32, and they have the rest of the schedule to go 65-39 to finish 89-73.

 

Bleak enough for you?

It really bugs me that you try and plan all this out as if it is somehow reliable information.

 

By your calculations for competing? What does that even mean?

[caulfield12]

Why couldn't they? They don't play a good team until May 31st.

 

 

Because they've shown no signs of that being at all a likely outcome, let alone a probability.

 

When they go out to LA, sweep the Angels and Scioscia's fired, then I'll be willing to believe things might be changing for the better.

[Jordan4life_2007]

It really bugs me that you try and plan all this out as if it is somehow reliable information.

 

By your calculations for competing? What does that even mean?

 

haha. I wanted to say something. But I just said f*** it. I don't get it at all. "The Sox better have X amount of wins by July 8 or else." lol.

[witesoxfan]

Um, I disagree completely. We need to worry about the standing RIGHT NOW. I don't want to be 8+ games out when/if this team "starts to play like they're capable." Detroit is significantly better than they were last year - leading all of baseball in runs scored and third in ERA. They have easily the highest run differential at +62 (only team close is the Cards at +51).

 

Regression will get a lot of these guys though. Do you expect Cabrera, Hunter, Peralta, Tuiasosopo, and Infante to hit like they have all year? At the same time, I don't expect Martinez nor Avila to hit as poorly as they have all year either, and I think Jackson will hit a bit better too. Verlander's a stud, but he's not going to keep his ERA at a crisp 1.93 if he continues with his 1.21 WHIP, and Anibal Sanchez is not a 2.05 ERA pitcher. At the same time, Porcello is not a 6.68 ERA bad pitcher either.

 

All the regression will catch up to them eventually, but I don't think it will change their winning percentage drastically. I think that's a 95 win team, at least.

 

And, yes, crazy as it may be, I still think this Sox team can compete.

[witesoxfan]

Because they've shown no signs of that being at all a likely outcome, let alone a probability.

 

When they go out to LA, sweep the Angels and Scioscia's fired, then I'll be willing to believe things might be changing for the better.

 

And they showed those signs before they started their run last year too, right? When they went 7-14 in the previous 21?

 

Then they beat LA, swept the Cubs at Wrigley, took 2 of 3 from Minnesota, swept Cleveland at home, and then swept Tampa Bay at Tampa.

 

They're starting to hit (Dunn, Viciedo, and Flowers all look way, way better), they're still pitching like crazy, and, hopefully, Ventura's team meeting helps them shape things up defensively.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Regression will get a lot of these guys though. Do you expect Cabrera, Hunter, Peralta, Tuiasosopo, and Infante to hit like they have all year? At the same time, I don't expect Martinez nor Avila to hit as poorly as they have all year either, and I think Jackson will hit a bit better too. Verlander's a stud, but he's not going to keep his ERA at a crisp 1.93 if he continues with his 1.21 WHIP, and Anibal Sanchez is not a 2.05 ERA pitcher. At the same time, Porcello is not a 6.68 ERA bad pitcher either.

 

All the regression will catch up to them eventually, but I don't think it will change their winning percentage drastically. I think that's a 95 win team, at least.

 

And, yes, crazy as it may be, I still think this Sox team can compete.

 

Cabrera? He has no offensive ceiling. The rest? Yeah, they'll come down some. But it won't matter if the Sox are 10 or more games out by that time.

[witesoxfan]

Cabrera? He has no offensive ceiling. The rest? Yeah, they'll come down some. But it won't matter if the Sox are 10 or more games out by that time.

 

Cabrera I was iffy on, but I don't even think he can hit .375 all year, but overall, his splits aren't that far off some of his career highs. Put simply, I think his bat will cool off, but the power has yet to appear. s***, he's barely on pace for 30 homers right now

[flavum]

haha. I wanted to say something. But I just said f*** it. I don't get it at all. "The Sox better have X amount of wins by July 8 or else." lol.

 

So who they play and when they play them doesn't matter? Ok, great.

 

Keep living in a fantasy world where the Sox are better than the Tigers and they'll go 13-6 against them after July 8.

[iamshack]

So who they play and when they play them doesn't matter? Ok, great.

 

Keep living in a fantasy world where the Sox are better than the Tigers and they'll go 13-6 against them after July 8.

That's not what anyone is saying.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

So who they play and when they play them doesn't matter? Ok, great.

 

Keep living in a fantasy world where the Sox are better than the Tigers and they'll go 13-6 against them after July 8.

 

The thing about baseball is that anyone can win in a given night. The best teams only win about 65% of the time each year.

 

It's not likely that the Sox turn it around, but it's definitely possible, and it's possible no matter how tough the schedule is.

[southsider2k5]

How do you know you're right this time?

 

Can you guarantee we won't lose 33% of the fanbase anyway if we continue to muddle through three more season with 74-78 win teams that have no realistic chance at the playoffs even with additions at the trade deadline?

 

This is a silly question. No one can guarantee anything. What can you promise? You can go off of history. The history of Sox fans is that they abandon the team wholesale at the mention of a rebuild.

[Eminor3rd]

This is a silly question. No one can guarantee anything. What can you promise? You can go off of history. The history of Sox fans is that they abandon the team wholesale at the mention of a rebuild.

 

A "rebuild" is an extreme measure to be taken when the whole system is trash, a la, Astros/Cubs/Nats. Outside of Danks, we don't have nearly any long-term money tying our hands. But we also don't have a good team -- we flat out missed on some investments and the team blew it last year down the stretch -- and you can't put lipstick on a pig.

 

We don't have to ever say the word, but that doesn't mean we don't need to take a year to get some younger talent into the system or promoted. You need Dunn's salary to clear and you need Danks to become useful. You need to replace Konerko and you need Viciedo to get more mature. Unfortunately, Rios and Peavy aren't on that timetable, so they need to be converted so something of value that will help us when we're ready. It doesn't need to take more than a year or two.

 

The fans may not like it, but they aren't showing up to see this loser either. The meatballs don't care about the team's strategy, the want a winner to brag about. It's going to take winning to bring the fans back, nothing more or less. So you have to do what is going to build a winner. If you can't weather the storm (especially one that's only a couple years), you aren't a viable business. The Brewers can do it, the Rays can do it. Even the Indians are doing it. If they can handle it, Chicago can handle it.

[southsider2k5]

A "rebuild" is an extreme measure to be taken when the whole system is trash, a la, Astros/Cubs/Nats. Outside of Danks, we don't have nearly any long-term money tying our hands. But we also don't have a good team -- we flat out missed on some investments and the team blew it last year down the stretch -- and you can't put lipstick on a pig.

 

We don't have to ever say the word, but that doesn't mean we don't need to take a year to get some younger talent into the system or promoted. You need Dunn's salary to clear and you need Danks to become useful. You need to replace Konerko and you need Viciedo to get more mature. Unfortunately, Rios and Peavy aren't on that timetable, so they need to be converted so something of value that will help us when we're ready. It doesn't need to take more than a year or two.

 

The fans may not like it, but they aren't showing up to see this loser either. The meatballs don't care about the team's strategy, the want a winner to brag about. It's going to take winning to bring the fans back, nothing more or less. So you have to do what is going to build a winner. If you can't weather the storm (especially one that's only a couple years), you aren't a viable business. The Brewers can do it, the Rays can do it. Even the Indians are doing it. If they can handle it, Chicago can handle it.

 

We are in the middle of a reload right now. We are actively searching out young talent, in the draft, in Latin America, and buried in other teams minor league systems. We are slowly and quietly moving out players that we have replacements for. I am sure Paul Konerko is next on the list. Gavin Floyd would have been as well if he had stayed healthy.

[Eminor3rd]

We are in the middle of a reload right now. We are actively searching out young talent, in the draft, in Latin America, and buried in other teams minor league systems. We are slowly and quietly moving out players that we have replacements for. I am sure Paul Konerko is next on the list. Gavin Floyd would have been as well if he had stayed healthy.

 

I agree, I think Hahn has this exact plan.

 

I'm probably not even arguing with you, specifically, at all -- there's just the usual amount of negative hyperbole in this thread.

[southsider2k5]

I agree, I think Hahn has this exact plan.

 

I'm probably not even arguing with you, specifically, at all -- there's just the usual amount of negative hyperbole in this thread.

 

I think the reason Hahn has this plan is that he understands the challenges in his fan base with a full rebuild.

[Eminor3rd]

I think the reason Hahn has this plan is that he understands the challenges in his fan base with a full rebuild.

 

Definitely, but fortunately it's also not necessary. Like I sad before, the underperformers are all off the books in a year or two.

[caulfield12]

We are in the middle of a reload right now. We are actively searching out young talent, in the draft, in Latin America, and buried in other teams minor league systems. We are slowly and quietly moving out players that we have replacements for. I am sure Paul Konerko is next on the list. Gavin Floyd would have been as well if he had stayed healthy.

 

 

It's like we're trying to sequester everyone here into different camps based on verbiage.

 

Reload, rebuild, restructure, reallocate....

 

Fine...although if you're selling the idea of "reloading," that would infer or imply the team was near a championship level or consistent playoff winning team, like the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Rangers, etc.

 

 

What you just described is something that the team under KW ALWAYS did, with the exceptions being the improvements in the Dominican, the addition of Paddy, the leveling of the June draft and international signing pool...all positive developments which would seem to work to the favor of the White Sox going forward.

 

A full rebuild means trading Sale, and I don't think ANYBODY'S advocating that.

 

A limited rebuild MIGHT mean trading Peavy, Ramirez, Rios and some of our bullpen arms if the right moves come along. It probably does NOT involve trading Santiago or Quintana unless they're 100% convinced that Johnson or another pitcher is ready to come up and contribute right away (see Daniel Hudson and resulting trade from 2010).

 

 

We do have the exact same record as last year at this time. We also have to be mindful we've given the Tigers a five game head start, and there's three other teams between us and first, whereas last year, the Twins and Royals were already buried for the season at this point (well, the Royals/Sox match-ups were another story).

 

We also know that the White Sox, if they're aren't within 5-6 games of first place in the coming months...it's going to adversely affect attendance, which will have a resultant adverse effect on our ability to take on additional payroll at the trading deadline.

 

HOWEVER, IN THE END, MOST EVERYONE WOULD SIMPLY PREFER A COMPETITIVE 2013 TEAM OR A CLEAR ALTERNATIVE DIRECTION IF THE TEAM IS STILL UNDERPERFORMING IN TWO MONTHS.

Edited May 16, 2013 by caulfield12

[ShandyMan]

It's like we're trying to sequester everyone here into different camps based on verbiage.

 

Reload, rebuild, restructure, reallocate....

 

Fine...although if you're selling the idea of "reloading," that would infer or imply the team was near a championship level or consistent playoff winning team, like the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Rangers, etc.

 

 

What you just described is something that the team under KW ALWAYS did, with the exceptions being the improvements in the Dominican, the addition of Paddy, the leveling of the June draft and international signing pool...all positive developments which would seem to work to the favor of the White Sox going forward.

 

A full rebuild means trading Sale, and I don't think ANYBODY'S advocating that.

 

A limited rebuild MIGHT mean trading Peavy, Ramirez, Rios and some of our bullpen arms if the right moves come along. It probably does NOT involve trading Santiago or Quintana unless they're 100% convinced that Johnson or another pitcher is ready to come up and contribute right away (see Daniel Hudson and resulting trade from 2010).

 

 

We do have the exact same record as last year at this time. We also have to be mindful we've given the Tigers a five game head start, and there's three other teams between us and first, whereas last year, the Twins and Royals were already buried for the season at this point (well, the Royals/Sox match-ups were another story).

 

We also know that the White Sox, if they're aren't within 5-6 games of first place in the coming months...it's going to adversely affect attendance, which will have a resultant adverse effect on our ability to take on additional payroll at the trading deadline.

 

HOWEVER, IN THE END, MOST EVERYONE WOULD SIMPLY PREFER A COMPETITIVE 2013 TEAM OR A CLEAR ALTERNATIVE DIRECTION IF THE TEAM IS STILL UNDERPERFORMING IN TWO MONTHS.

 

If anyone thinks that the sox will do a COMPLETE rebuild including sale/santiago/quintana/viciedo they are just flat out wrong. A white sox rebuild would include trading peavy/rios for players that will contribute sooner rather than later. We still have some young talent on this team, blowing it up completely would be ridiculous.

 

[T R U]

As you mentioned, you're looking at a "limited" sample of Viciedo. I'm looking at his total body of work at this point. He kind of reminds me of a lesser Carlos Lee. Yeah, Lee has a fair amount of hits and home runs over his career. But it took him a long time to amass those stats, and he's never meant that much to any of his teams. When the Sox got Pods for him, I think the Sox fleeced the Brewers in that trade (I don't care that the rest of Soxtalk hates Pods, face it, 2005 doesn't happen without him). And I see Dayan as a worse version of Lee.

 

I think De Aza is a solid leadoff hitter, but there's a difference between solid and good (I'll throw Alexei and Beckham, maybe, into the solid but not good category as well).

 

Dunn is done (pun intended, and spot on as well).

 

Konerko is also done. I love Paulie. Carried himself as a true professional on and off the field. I want his number retired, and a statue in 5 years. But he has almost nothing left. Regardless of the return, I want the Sox to trade him to a contender, because Paulie deserves one more chance at a ring.

 

Keppinger is pure garbage. He kills lefties? You know what that means? He's a platoon player at best. You don't make your big offseason move a platoon player. It's ok to do that midseason when you're just trying to fine tune a team that's already good/great (like the 2005 Sox when they just added Blum).

 

I like what Gillaspie has done so far, but lately he's been coming back to Earth, and he's got a long way to go to prove he's for real considering his track record.

 

This team has more holes than Swiss cheese. With the possible exception of Rios, there's not a single above average hitter on the team at any position, and in most cases, they are far below average. It's not the matter of guys underachieving (because they're not, the lineup is just that bad) or adding a couple of pieces in the offseason. The pitching staff is strong (although, assuming Peavy isn't dealt and stays healthy, I think we still need a number three starting pitcher, and I have my doubts that Danks is ever coming back as an effective pitcher), but the lineup needs at least three good hitters, and at least two of whom are big on base guys, and a major comeback from Konerko. There's no help on the farm, and there is zero chance that this team can compete this year. Stockpile prospects and invest money, and more importantly time and effort, in player development.

 

Obviously I love that we won the World Series in 2005, but the Lee for Podsednik trade was just awful from a trade perspective. We got hosed in that deal, the return we got for a player of Lee's ability was brutal

[caulfield12]

Obviously I love that we won the World Series in 2005, but the Lee for Podsednik trade was just awful from a trade perspective. We got hosed in that deal, the return we got for a player of Lee's ability was brutal

 

 

Simple.

 

Lee/Ordonez/Valentin

 

Offloading that nearly $40 million in salary made everything else possible.

 

Then throw in the acquisitions of Garcia (the extension also made possible by the reallocated payroll) and Contreras the season before, it all just came together, along with the emergence of Jenks and McCarthy in the 2nd half.

 

Think of it as a chess move. It improved the team chemistry. Addition by subtraction.

[T R U]

Simple.

 

Lee/Ordonez/Valentin

 

Offloading that nearly $40 million in salary made everything else possible.

 

Then throw in the acquisitions of Garcia (the extension also made possible by the reallocated payroll) and Contreras the season before, it all just came together, along with the emergence of Jenks and McCarthy in the 2nd half.

 

Think of it as a chess move. It improved the team chemistry. Addition by subtraction.

 

that doesnt justify a bad trade.. you could have still traded Lee for a better return and saved all that salary.. like I said im glad we won the world series, but that trade sucked

[Jake]

FWIW, Pods had a higher WAR than Carlos Lee in 2005

[Marty34]

The trade ended up working out but we should have gotten more or better prospect(s) along with Pods/Vizcaino. Look up Carlos Lee's stats with us. It's shocking how productive he was even if he was dumb/couldn't bunt/couldn't field.

 

Goes back to anyone being able to play LF.

[T R U]

FWIW, Pods had a higher WAR than Carlos Lee in 2005

 

WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

[caulfield12]

Goes back to anyone being able to play LF.

 

 

He didn't play it well.

 

And he was horrible (like Pods and Pierre) at stopping runners on the basepaths.

 

 

So yeah, you can stick anyone out there, but that doesn't mean they're going to contribute positively if their defense is horrendous and their bat is just average or slightly above average for the position.

 

Viciedo has made a real difference because you have to respect his arm if you're the opposition.