Santiago vs. Axelrod

[Buehrle>Wood]

With John Danks set to return Friday, I keep seeing a Santiago vs. Axelrod discussion pop-up, so I would like to take this opportunity to point out how stupid such a discussion is. Santiago is an extremely talented starting pitcher and certainly one of the most valuable pieces on the White Sox roster. To this point in his career, he has been very much misused by the White Sox organization. To continue that trend at this point would just be absurd. Axelrod on the other hand, is very limited, but has pitched pretty well for us this season. Just not on the level that Santiago has been on (and has the potential to be on). Let's recap here:

 

 

Axelrod's pitching stats

Career as a starter: 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

This season: 2-3, 4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, Average of 5 2/3 IP per start

 

Santiago's pitching stats

Career as a starter: 3-1, 2.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.6 K/9

 

This season: 1-1, 2.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, Average of 5 1/3 IP per start

 

 

 

The data is of course somewhat limited this early on in the season (and their respective careers), but as you can see this discussion is quite lopsided. Santiago is the much better pitcher and is the one with the greater potential to carry on continued success.

 

But...But Buehrle>Wood! Santiago would be much more valuable as a lefty in our bullpen!

 

No! Just no. While true Santiago is a very dominant reliever and we could probably use another lefty in our bullpen, Hector is not the solution. He is completely misused by the White Sox there. There is no reason to have one of your most talented players on the roster serve as a long-man. Long-men are supposed to be nothing more than talentless inning eaters. Santiago's game log shows just how much he was wasted there. In his first four appearances out of the pen this year, Hector pitched 8 innings with an ERA of 0.00, and yet the White Sox lost every one of those games.

 

 

It's sad, but I think the White Sox will actually have this discussion. It shows just how clueless this organization can be sometimes. The more appropriate discussion would be John Danks vs. Axelrod. Hopefully Q doesn't drag himself into the discussion tonight.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Easy, Santiago.

[witesoxfan]

I imagine they will have this discussion, but that it will be a relatively easy decision to make. Demoting Santiago is an option, but it's similar to how the Twins kept Johan Santana from starting and taking over for a while, and while Santiago is no Santana, he's incredibly talented.

 

I think ultimately the discussion will come down to "how the hell do we fix this bullpen." Axelrod is not the solution to that. Axelrod is a perfectly good starting pitcher, but he is a perfectly terrible reliever. So you either use a rotating 6-man rotation, getting guys out and going with hot hands (which means Peavy and Sale may have like, tops, 1 skipped start unless they get hurt), or you trade a starter. At this point, you can't justifiably trade Sale or Peavy. You can make arguments for trading Santiago or Quintana, but you have to get an absolute monster of a young stud back in return to make any sort of deal like that. That leaves Danks (not) and Axelrod.

 

As I suggested in the other thread, I think dealing Axelrod (plus someone else) for a couple relievers actually makes a lot of sense. Milwaukee makes sense as a destination because they need starting pitching, even if they don't compete this year, and they can afford to shed some relievers.

 

I do really like Axelrod too, but the Sox simply do not have room for him.

[fathom]

I'll be stunned in a positive way if Santiago remains in the rotation and Axelrod goes to the bullpen. With that said, no reason to get too upset if Santiago goes to the pen as I'm sure he'll be back into the rotation later in the year. I definitely don't think Danks is a better pitcher than Santiago now, but I understand why you have to see what he has.

[southsider2k5]

If there isn't anyone to get the ball from Santiago to the set up man, it doesn't matter how good he is.

[fathom]

If there isn't anyone to get the ball from Santiago to the set up man, it doesn't matter how good he is.

 

But then one would argue that he needs to get more experience as a starter in order to work on limiting his pitches per inning, etc.

[southsider2k5]

But then one would argue that he needs to get more experience as a starter in order to work on limiting his pitches per inning, etc.

 

By costing the team games in the mean time.

[fathom]

By costing the team games in the mean time.

 

Which they might be doing by pitching Danks in the majors right now

 

Again, putting Santiago into the bullpen wouldn't shock me at all, especially given what Cooper said about him a few weeks ago.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

As I suggested in the other thread, I think dealing Axelrod (plus someone else) for a couple relievers actually makes a lot of sense. Milwaukee makes sense as a destination because they need starting pitching, even if they don't compete this year, and they can afford to shed some relievers.

 

I do really like Axelrod too, but the Sox simply do not have room for him.

 

You can't deal Axelrod until you know Danks is okay. It's the only reason we held on to Floyd this year.

[Jake]

We aren't in that dire of need for a middle relief pitcher. Hector has immense importance to our future. Our team will be better with Hector in the rotation. Good luck to Axe in the pen, I hope.

[Jerksticks]

What do we do if Danks can't get anybody out after say 5 starts?

[fathom]

What do we do if Danks can't get anybody out after say 5 starts?

 

DL him and put Santiago back into the rotation.

[southsider2k5]

We aren't in that dire of need for a middle relief pitcher. Hector has immense importance to our future. Our team will be better with Hector in the rotation. Good luck to Axe in the pen, I hope.

 

I don't think it is a coincidence that our pen collapse started right after Santiago went to the rotation. We started asking a bunch of guys to do things they aren't good at.

[caulfield12]

But does anyone really believe that Danks is going to give us a better chance to win than the stats that Santiago has put up as a starter?

 

I bet most wouldn't be surprised at all if his overall statline was worse than what Axelrod has produced so far.

 

If we're really trying to shore up our bullpen, and we're in "win now" mode, shouldn't the organization be trying to find an external replacement for Veal (or trying Purcey)...

 

Put another way, at this point of the season, if the organization is still trying to sell fans on the idea they're legitimately competing still...and isn't worried how many games the lead is for the Indians (as opposed to the Tiggers, and they start a series tonight by the way)...isn't John Danks the least likely to win a game as a starter of all 3 options?

 

But, due to his long-term contract status and all the money invested in him, we pretty much have no choice but to go with him when HE feels he's ready to contribute? In a sense, we don't have any leverage over him, we can't threaten to trade him or banish him to the bullpen, because that would make absolutely no sense to hurt our ROI from a long-term perspective.

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

Santiago>Buehrle>Wood

[southsider2k5]

Tonight is a perfect example of what I am talking about. The Sox can't trust anyone in the 7th, so they have to run Crain out there to put out the fire. Now in the 8th, they have to trust Thornton and Lindstrom, which just about blew up in their faces.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Tonight is a perfect example of what I am talking about. The Sox can't trust anyone in the 7th, so they have to run Crain out there to put out the fire. Now in the 8th, they have to trust Thornton and Lindstrom, which just about blew up in their faces.

 

So trade for a middle reliever, don't take away quality innings out of the rotation to replace them with quality innings out of the 'pen. You can find relievers off the scrap heap in a season, you can call up minors leaguers, but a rotational piece is more important than a guy you can run out of the 6th-7th innings.

[fathom]

Tonight is a perfect example of what I am talking about. The Sox can't trust anyone in the 7th, so they have to run Crain out there to put out the fire. Now in the 8th, they have to trust Thornton and Lindstrom, which just about blew up in their faces.

 

They didn't trust Hector when he was a reliever to start the year it seemed, as he pitched in 5 out of 6 games that Sox ended up losing.

[southsider2k5]

So trade for a middle reliever, don't take away quality innings out of the rotation to replace them with quality innings out of the 'pen. You can find relievers off the scrap heap in a season, you can call up minors leaguers, but a rotational piece is more important than a guy you can run out of the 6th-7th innings.

 

#1-NO one is trading quality players right now

#2-How has that worked for the Sox so far this year?

#3-The rotation is not the problem. The bullpen is.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

#1-NO one is trading quality players right now

#2-How has that worked for the Sox so far this year?

#3-The rotation is not the problem. The bullpen is.

 

 

You don't create a weakness to patch a weakness. Santiago wouldn't become our 7th, 8th, or 9th inning guy anyway, so what's the point? He'd be a situational lefty or mop up guy. He gives us way more value in the rotation. Pick up a reliever off a scrap heap or in the minors.

[chw42]

The problem with Santiago is that he can be really bad (like his last outing against the Angels). Axelrod can at least give you 5-6 innings and is a bit more consistent.

 

That being said, I'd still much rather go with Hector.

[southsider2k5]

You don't create a weakness to patch a weakness. Santiago wouldn't become our 7th, 8th, or 9th inning guy anyway, so what's the point? He'd be a situational lefty or mop up guy. He gives us way more value in the rotation. Pick up a reliever off a scrap heap or in the minors.

 

That's just it. You aren't creating a weakness. Winning games is what creates value. Value is worthless if we are giving away games.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

That's just it. You aren't creating a weakness. Winning games is what creates value. Value is worthless if we are giving away games.

 

Axelrod in the rotation instead of Santiago is making the rotation WEAKER.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Axelrod in the rotation instead of Santiago is making the rotation WEAKER.

Yep. And Santiago to the bullpen doesn't help much when the Sox have no idea what to do with him there.

[caulfield12]

That's just it. You aren't creating a weakness. Winning games is what creates value. Value is worthless if we are giving away games.

 

Developing a Johan Santana Lite starter over a long man or lefty specialist creates 5X more value for the long-term prospects of the franchise.

 

 

But back to Fathom's point.

 

Those 5/6 games he pitched in, the Sox lost. It's almost like you're envisioning him being used properly, and that could PRODUCE wins for the bullpen, but that's not squaring with reality.

 

Even if he was the best long reliever in the game, we don't have the type of offense to come back very often in those game he was sporting a 0.00 ERA....over however many innings he pitched the first couple of weeks.

 

You would have a point if he was like Zumaya with the Tigers in his prime and he could be trotted out there to put out fires any inning from the 5th through the 8th...and was equally difficult for lefties and righties to match up against.

Edited May 22, 2013 by caulfield12