Rebuild: So Far Better Than Could Have Hoped For

[LittleHurt05]

If Morse, Hudson and Gio is the reason you don't trade minor leaguers, no one should trade minor leaguers. Morse got you a guy that help win a WS, and he didn't develop into anything until he was 28 or 29. Hudson will have 2 lost years due to injury, and will be arb eligible. Gio was a tough one who was actually traded twice. However, if you go back, Gio, for all his promise, wasn't exactly held in high regard on Soxtalk. Nowhere near the status of Santiago and Jordan Danks.

 

 

And that first Gio trade was worth it. It may have only led to one playoff win, but Thome was huge for the Sox.

[Dick Allen]

And that first Gio trade was worth it. It may have only led to one playoff win, but Thome was huge for the Sox.

And when he was traded for Swisher, that would be an interesting thread to see again. I think some posters who can't believe KW would destroy his minor league system like that might be embarrassed.

[witesoxfan]

Hey, I'm sure all of us are more than willing to roll with the "just add to the payroll" approach, but how likely is that?

 

It doesn't square with the last decade, with the exception of the Dunn/Rios/Peavy acquisitions. And giving Danks an extension.

 

We'll add to the payroll at the All-Star break, but aren't quick to take on long-term commitments.

 

As Dick mentioned, they added Peavy and Rios during 2008. Contreras was another big one where the Yankees really didn't chip in much money and all the Sox gave up was Esteban Loaiza. I'm sure the Sox could have given up a better prospect to get the Dodgers to pay for more of Pierre's salary too. They also took on most of Thome's salary too, but that was after a World Series, so it is slightly different.

 

If the Sox feel there is value in the player and they can right the ship, they will absolutely acquire them. Not saying Weeks is going to be a target, but he really is the type of player the Sox have targeted in the past decade (going back, Liriano, Youkilis, Rios, Peavy, Putz, Dye (twice), Andruw Jones, Thome, Vazquez, Contreras, Pierzynski...the recent history of this franchise is littered with them picking up or retaining guys while their value is low and then seeing regression take place and reaping the rewards. And, on the contrary, they've been pretty good about staying away from guys when they believe the price to be too much. The only time I think they've really failed on that was Thome in 2010, because having him in the lineup over Kotsay while keeping him out of the Twins lineup is really what made the difference in the division that season.

[caulfield12]

As Dick mentioned, they added Peavy and Rios during 2008. Contreras was another big one where the Yankees really didn't chip in much money and all the Sox gave up was Esteban Loaiza. I'm sure the Sox could have given up a better prospect to get the Dodgers to pay for more of Pierre's salary too. They also took on most of Thome's salary too, but that was after a World Series, so it is slightly different.

 

If the Sox feel there is value in the player and they can right the ship, they will absolutely acquire them. Not saying Weeks is going to be a target, but he really is the type of player the Sox have targeted in the past decade (going back, Liriano, Youkilis, Rios, Peavy, Putz, Dye (twice), Andruw Jones, Thome, Vazquez, Contreras, Pierzynski...the recent history of this franchise is littered with them picking up or retaining guys while their value is low and then seeing regression take place and reaping the rewards. And, on the contrary, they've been pretty good about staying away from guys when they believe the price to be too much. The only time I think they've really failed on that was Thome in 2010, because having him in the lineup over Kotsay while keeping him out of the Twins lineup is really what made the difference in the division that season.

 

 

You might want to go back and check your dates.

 

We would have won the 2008 World Series with those 2 moves, even without Quentin down the stretch, assuming Rios hit.

 

I'm not sure how much Jones really helped...he was serviceable, but anything he did was negated by Kotsay.

 

Rios didn't help in 2009/2011 when he was really needed. Peavy was hurt for most of his Sox career (until 2012). Javy was a huge disappointment, we would have been better off with Chris Young. Contreras was signed to a long-term deal that he never lived up to for various reasons (obviously, he won a World Series and was the best pitcher in baseball from August 05 through May 06).

 

If you go back over that list, we didn't get anything back for any of those players, in the end. The closest was the rumored Dye/Bailey move, but Rios' mid-season acquisition in 2009 basically forced JD off the team and set back team chemistry down the stretch.

Edited May 29, 2013 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And when he was traded for Swisher, that would be an interesting thread to see again. I think some posters who can't believe KW would destroy his minor league system like that might be embarrassed.

I don't play GM much because I consider myself knowledgeable on the Sox and baseball in general but by no means do I have a firm grasp on other teams players and minor leagues. I do remember wanting Dominic Brown while he was up and down . Not sure if I actually posted it. I'm sure I posted about wanting Adam LaRoche when everyone else was pining for Derek Lee and was blasted for that opinion. I know I posted about wanting a shot at some of the Nat's prospects like Rendon before we got Gillaspie.

 

My point being ,if we add I always think it's best to target near ML ready talent who've put up decent MiL slash lines who are blocked by talent at the ML level like Hahn did with Gillaspie .Look how Gomez is doing now after so many here thought he was crap and made fun of Hawk for touting him. Good young players seem to be available. The Twins moved 2 young CF's .We have plenty of guys we can move if need be Kepp, Axelrod , Santiago, Beckham, DeAza , Crain , Thornton, Lindstrom, Jones ,Alexei. If the season goes south I think we see at least 2 or 3 of those guys moved or even some of the higher priced guys. If Hahn can rid us of Dunn I would sing his praises forever.

[Dick Allen]

The White sox actually got more for Jaime Navarro than the Mariners got for Pineda, Garcia and Lee combined, and they acquired 2 " on the wrong side of 30" players while the Mariners received a couple of top 10 rated prospects a top 25 a young starting catcher and a big projectable minor leaguer.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

I don't play GM much because I consider myself knowledgeable on the Sox and baseball in general but by no means do I have a firm grasp on other teams players and minor leagues. I do remember wanting Dominic Brown while he was up and down . Not sure if I actually posted it. I'm sure I posted about wanting Adam LaRoche when everyone else was pining for Derek Lee and was blasted for that opinion. I know I posted about wanting a shot at some of the Nat's prospects like Rendon before we got Gillaspie.

 

My point being ,if we add I always think it's best to target near ML ready talent who've put up decent MiL slash lines who are blocked by talent at the ML level like Hahn did with Gillaspie .Look how Gomez is doing now after so many here thought he was crap and made fun of Hawk for touting him. Good young players seem to be available. The Twins moved 2 young CF's .We have plenty of guys we can move if need be Kepp, Axelrod , Santiago, Beckham, DeAza , Crain , Thornton, Lindstrom, Jones ,Alexei. If the season goes south I think we see at least 2 or 3 of those guys moved or even some of the higher priced guys. If Hahn can rid us of Dunn I would sing his praises forever.

 

Good luck. Not sure why we would want to sell off Nathan Jones for nothing when he has a lot more value to us if he rebounds and can be a productive member of the bullpen.

 

If you're dumping Crain/Thornton/Lindstrom, you HAVE to have someone besides a wing and a prayer for 2014.

 

If we're selling Santiago as a starter and not as mop-up guy, then fine...but he's not establishing any value for a trade right now.

 

He would be worth more if he was throwing shutouts and no-hitters in Charlotte and building up his stamina so he could immediately be used as a starter by another team. Besides the fact that trading Axelrod and Santiago forces Erik Johnson into the rotation (probably earlier than he's ready) and we still don't know what we have in Danks, either.

Edited May 29, 2013 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Good luck. Not sure why we would want to sell off Nathan Jones for nothing when he has a lot more value to us if he rebounds and can be a productive member of the bullpen.

 

If you're dumping Crain/Thornton/Lindstrom, you HAVE to have someone besides a wing and a prayer for 2014.

 

If we're selling Santiago as a starter and not as mop-up guy, then fine...but he's not establishing any value for a trade right now.

 

He would be worth more if he was throwing shutouts and no-hitters in Charlotte and building up his stamina so he could immediately be used as a starter by another team. Besides the fact that trading Axelrod and Santiago forces Erik Johnson into the rotation (probably earlier than he's ready) and we still don't know what we have in Danks, either.

Jones has over a month to rebound. Santiago's value is established. Might not be ideally established but 3 more good starts might bring it up a little but 3 bad ones bring it down more. He can be traded having established OK stats as a starter or reliever.

 

If we're adding to win now look for more rent a players somewhere in this list http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthrea...-Shopping-Early

[caulfield12]

2008 attendance: 2,500,648

2009 attendance: 2,284,163

 

 

That's for the FULL season.

 

The 2009 season went into the tank from the time that Rios started playing like 2011/13 Dunn...and we all know Peavy's injury issues and the fact he wasn't ready to pitch when he was acquired. But there was still a lot of excitement early that summer about the team.

 

I'm pretty sure that going into August, the attendance numbers were fairly similar, if not the 2009 pace ahead before all the wheels fell off that team.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Jones has over a month to rebound. Santiago's value is established. Might not be ideally established but 3 more good starts might bring it up a little but 3 bad ones bring it down more. He can be traded having established OK stats as a starter or reliever.

 

If we're adding to win now look for more rent a players somewhere in this list http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthrea...-Shopping-Early

 

 

If Santiago's value was 100% established, he wouldn't be pitching behind Axelrod.

 

Because as much as they want you to believe it, that he's a "Swiss Army Knife" (Cooper's phrase), they're still basically using Santiago as the long-man and not a set-up guy.

 

If Jones rebounds, why would you want to trade him when he's still affordable and we have a DIRE need to bullpen help in 2014. We can't fill 4-5 slots from what we have in our minor league system right now. We would be quite lucky to fill just two capably.

 

Then you're really going to be overpaying for free agents OR going with the 2007 White Sox bullpen approach, which, trust me, you don't ever want to see again.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

That's for the FULL season.

 

The 2009 season went into the tank from the time that Rios started playing like 2011/13 Dunn...and we all know Peavy's injury issues and the fact he wasn't ready to pitch when he was acquired. But there was still a lot of excitement early that summer about the team.

 

I'm pretty sure that going into August, the attendance numbers were fairly similar, if not the 2009 pace ahead before all the wheels fell off that team.

You're really going to make me sit down tomorrow and add it up to show you aren't you?

[The Ultimate Champion]

That's for the FULL season.

 

The 2009 season went into the tank from the time that Rios started playing like 2011/13 Dunn...and we all know Peavy's injury issues and the fact he wasn't ready to pitch when he was acquired. But there was still a lot of excitement early that summer about the team.

 

I'm pretty sure that going into August, the attendance numbers were fairly similar, if not the 2009 pace ahead before all the wheels fell off that team.

IIRC 2009 went into the tank when we decided to start the year with Fartolo Colon & 37-year-old Jose Contreras as 2 key members of our starting rotation with the Mark Kotsay DH experiment serving as the cherry on top. Rios was terrible in Toronto which is exactly why we were able to acquire him in the first place. He was a 2010+ piece.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If Santiago's value was 100% established, he wouldn't be pitching behind Axelrod.

 

Because as much as they want you to believe it, that he's a "Swiss Army Knife" (Cooper's phrase), they're still basically using Santiago as the long-man and not a set-up guy.

 

If Jones rebounds, why would you want to trade him when he's still affordable and we have a DIRE need to bullpen help in 2014. We can't fill 4-5 slots from what we have in our minor league system right now. We would be quite lucky to fill just two capably.

 

Then you're really going to be overpaying for free agents OR going with the 2007 White Sox bullpen approach, which, trust me, you don't ever want to see again.

I said Santiago's value was not "ideally " established. I'm pretty sure teams like his arm and what he has done up to this point. Jones you trade, if he re-establishes himself ,because in the off season relievers are easier to find but in the heat of a pennant race the reliable ones become more valuable.

Edited May 30, 2013 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

IIRC 2009 went into the tank when we decided to start the year with Fartolo Colon & 37-year-old Jose Contreras as 2 key members of our starting rotation with the Mark Kotsay DH experiment serving as the cherry on top. Rios was terrible in Toronto which is exactly why we were able to acquire him in the first place. He was a 2010+ piece.

 

 

Kotsay/A. Jones was the 2010 DH combo, fwiw.

[caulfield12]

IIRC 2009 went into the tank when we decided to start the year with Fartolo Colon & 37-year-old Jose Contreras as 2 key members of our starting rotation with the Mark Kotsay DH experiment serving as the cherry on top. Rios was terrible in Toronto which is exactly why we were able to acquire him in the first place. He was a 2010+ piece.

 

 

Kotsay/A. Jones was the 2010 DH combo, fwiw.

[witesoxfan]

You might want to go back and check your dates.

 

We would have won the 2008 World Series with those 2 moves, even without Quentin down the stretch, assuming Rios hit.

 

I'm not sure how much Jones really helped...he was serviceable, but anything he did was negated by Kotsay.

 

Rios didn't help in 2009/2011 when he was really needed. Peavy was hurt for most of his Sox career (until 2012). Javy was a huge disappointment, we would have been better off with Chris Young. Contreras was signed to a long-term deal that he never lived up to for various reasons (obviously, he won a World Series and was the best pitcher in baseball from August 05 through May 06).

 

If you go back over that list, we didn't get anything back for any of those players, in the end. The closest was the rumored Dye/Bailey move, but Rios' mid-season acquisition in 2009 basically forced JD off the team and set back team chemistry down the stretch.

 

My bad, made a typo, I'm human.

 

Regarding the down years, players have bad years from time to time. Rios has had two memorably bad stretches for the Sox, but I don't think anyone is going to look at his time with the White Sox in a bad light. Same exact thing with Peavy and Contreras. In fact, what got Contreras was that sciatica, because he was still rolling well into 2006 too before that set in. Vazquez was a huge disappointment, and you'll find no argument with me there, because I was probably his biggest supporter on the board for a while.

 

Really, the three biggest high cost moves that have hurt the Sox from Williams' tenure have been Dunn, Swisher, and Vazquez, and they've all been for different reasons.

 

Oh, and Jermaine Dye's degrading talent is what forced him off the team - he had a .590 OPS in the second half of 2009 - and Rios was merely a replacement. What forced him into retirement was his inability to deal with being a guy who gets 300-400 plate appearances in a season rather than playing full time.

[Balta1701]

That's for the FULL season.

 

The 2009 season went into the tank from the time that Rios started playing like 2011/13 Dunn...and we all know Peavy's injury issues and the fact he wasn't ready to pitch when he was acquired. But there was still a lot of excitement early that summer about the team.

 

I'm pretty sure that going into August, the attendance numbers were fairly similar, if not the 2009 pace ahead before all the wheels fell off that team.

Fine, here goes.

 

For 2008, through the trade deadline (54 home games), 29448 a game, 1531280 total.

 

For 2009, 54 games again, 27054 per game, 1406809 total.

 

The average from 2008 to 2009 decreased by 2672 tickets per game. It was down 2394 per game at that point.

[caulfield12]

Tim Brown, yahoosports on the Astros Rebuilding Process

 

ANAHEIM, Calif. – It was sometime in March, before the slog. Carlos Pena sat in a small locker room in Lakeland, Fla., the season coming, expectations lower than a tugged slider. The Houston Astros had been stripped down for market, then stripped further after they were sold, leaving them with little to defend themselves with in the American League. It didn't look good.

 

Pena turned up his expressive brown eyes and said, "I create my own reality."

 

It's June and the Astros have won 18 games, four of those in the past week. Nobody pitches worse, a frailty that can suck the soul from a ballclub. The Texas Rangers are long, long gone in the AL West. Back at home, fans almost certainly would like to believe in the plans of the new owner, new general manager and new field manager, and yet facts are facts. It's been more than three weeks since the Astros drew as many as 20,000 to Minute Maid Park. If the plan – to make the Astros consistently competitive and somewhat self-sustaining – is going to work, it may not include many of the young men currently wearing the uniform.

 

So, I wondered how Carlos Pena's reality was doing.

 

"You gotta be a little bit crazy," he offered. "You have to ignore what most humans pay attention to. So it's not normal."

 

Two months in, the Astros gamely ignore the hopelessness.

 

So do their T-shirts, which state, "I'm all in," or "Process," or "27 outs," or something about "The vision" and "The grind."

 

So does the gambling wheel, which travels with them, and whose flapper might clack to a stop at "Focus," or "Attitude," or "Astros win."

 

There are two triangles displaying World Series trophies. Just Friday afternoon, bullpen coach Dennis Martinez gave the wheel a flick, watched eagerly, and when it stopped circling he read aloud, "Have fun! Hey, everybody, have fun!" Five hours later, Martinez's curiosity got the best of him, and he gave the wheel another turn. "Commitment!" he shouted.

 

The Astros lead the league in inspirational T-shirts and old-school gaming devices. The rest has been a little choppy. They are, however, riding their second three-game winning streak of the season. They've won eight of 15. And they happen to be the only thing standing between the Los Angeles Angels and a winning record, having beaten the Angels four times in seven games.

 

The focus lately has been on next week's draft, which the Astros will lead off again. At the top of the list: Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray, Stanford pitcher Mark Appel, San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.

 

Still, the season trundles along. The plan ages. Meantime, somebody – a bunch of somebodies, actually – is required to go out and play the schedule. They're happy to do it. The fringe benefits are good, the pay is better. A few will survive it. But, on a given night, the future of the Astros is so far from the current Astros that one of those minor-league buses might not get you there in two days. Club management has weighed its long-term responsibility to the organization against its short-term responsibility to the league, and the choice was as simple as it was obvious. The Astros may be good one day, but for now they've been outscored by 92 runs – the worst differential in baseball.

But, then, anybody could point out the deficiencies.

 

"You sit there and look at our record, it's easy to get discouraged," Pena said. "So you try not to look at the board. Look at the standings, we're not doing well. But then, the actual question is, how does that reality service us? If it doesn't, you have to dismiss it."

They're on their own, too. The system makes it more difficult to rebuild, because of spending limitations in the draft and on the international market. Owner Jim Crane has not yet shown an affinity for free agents. Progress could be slow.

 

That leaves the reality of four months of baseball and many nights – if not all of them – in which they'll be in over their heads. It's a brutal reality in a clubhouse that, by all appearances, chooses to focus elsewhere. They pick a good T-shirt. They give the wheel a spin. They show up, they play, they show up tomorrow. It's been better lately, but it's fragile, because talent is thin and depth is thinner.

 

"If it affects you," said rookie manager Bo Porter, "then you need to look in the mirror and figure out what you're made of as a man."

 

He smiled. He's perfect for them, for this time, for this very reality. It's the only reality they have.

 

"I love baseball," he said. "I love these guys. I love the organization. A lot of times we get caught up in the wins and losses, the expectations, we forget this is a game we've played since we were 5 years old."

 

Maybe that's a cop out. But it's not his fault. Nobody in the clubhouse chose this course. They accepted the uniforms and all that came with them. Some will become quality big leaguers. Others already are. The rest will be casualties of the process, the journey from today's reality to tomorrow's.

 

Pena just happens to be in the middle of it, making the best of it, doing his part.

 

"Any great athlete, anyone who's been great in life, they step out of the perceived reality," he said. "That's when you achieve great things.

This, it's the harsh reality of the game. We know that. We ignore the opinions. Maybe one day we'll get the last laugh."

 

Then he nodded his head and went back to the slog.

[caulfield12]

If they can't find impact bats...one thing for sure they need to do is find superior defenders (buying defense costs a lot less than offense, another Moneyball-ish/Rays idea) in order to improve the overall D at:

 

LF, CF, 1B, C.

 

Gillaspie will get most of the at-bats at 3B, he's at least league average defensively and could improve, Ramirez and Beckham...and then Rios is fine in RF.

 

Viciedo needs to DH against LHP with Dunn only facing RHP. Viciedo can play against softer tossing RHP sometimes, depending on how Dunn is going (maybe they even release him, but that's seemingly not an option quite yet).

 

DeAza might need to go if he can't play CF...he's definitely not close to average there.

 

One obvious move (at 1B) would be a veteran "place holder" type of bat like Carlos Pena for a year, who can also play very solid defense.

 

Then everyone knows the problems at catcher, they're well-chronicled.

 

Getting Viciedo and Keppinger off the field will solve 50% of the problem.

 

Thompson in CF would be another solution, but he's probably a July/August/September 2014 arrival...so they need someone to hold down the fort while waiting on reinforcements.

 

It might mean Granderson for one or two years (or a mutual option for the 2nd/3rd year). It might mean Morales at 1B, or Pena. Utley's more of a long shot for 2B, because we already have Keppinger/Beckham/Sanchez there...at least there are options. Plus Semien and Saladino and even Micah Johnson are backlogged at that position, even DeMichele.

 

Then you have the McCann idea for catcher. That's a LOT of spending. And it's also giving up on Viciedo playing about 50-60% of the time, which I'm pretty sure they're not ready to do yet (and they shouldn't be with a 24 year-old).

Edited June 3, 2013 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

The remarkable thing continues to be...these same players were much, much better defensively last year.

 

It's like they forgot to practice it.

[Dick Allen]

The remarkable thing continues to be...these same players were much, much better defensively last year.

 

It's like they forgot to practice it.

De Aza began sliding when he said he preferred LF last year. Viciedo has never been and will never be a gold glover. Ramirez has been fine as has Rios. Other than that, it's been different players. Gillaspie has been really good. Keppinger and Greene and Dunn and Flowers have been awful. The only one who had a reputation as a good defensive player was Flowers and that was in a part time, very limited role. He has struggled defensively before.

 

As bad as the defense has been, if they had any type of offense up until now, they would be battling for the lead in the division. It's crazy. They are closer to first place than the Nationals.

[Balta1701]

De Aza began sliding when he said he preferred LF last year. Viciedo has never been and will never be a gold glover. Ramirez has been fine as has Rios. Other than that, it's been different players. Gillaspie has been really good. Keppinger and Greene and Dunn and Flowers have been awful. The only one who had a reputation as a good defensive player was Flowers and that was in a part time, very limited role. He has struggled defensively before.

 

As bad as the defense has been, if they had any type of offense up until now, they would be battling for the lead in the division. It's crazy. They are closer to first place than the Nationals.

Viciedo wasn't a gold glover, but he's taken a small step backwards so far this year.

[Dick Allen]

Viciedo wasn't a gold glover, but he's taken a small step backwards so far this year.

I agree with that, but it's not like it's been a huge difference. The problem is up the middle the Sox have been pretty bad. De Aza, I don't know what happened to him, and again, it really began last year. No Beckham has made 2B an awful postion defensively for the Sox and whoever plays there, the ball seems to find. And Flowers has been terrible, he has reverted to the defensive model he had when he was acquired. Having Dunn use a glove more often hasn't helped either.

[caulfield12]

They key is fixing up the middle first.

 

Beckham/Ramirez, then CF and C.

 

At least, that's traditionally the way to think.

 

It's just going to be incredibly difficult to do in the short-term...but rather than spending huge money on veteran bats in the free agency market, they're going to have to find value players like the Rays did with Ben Zobrist (Astros) and someone like a Franklin Gutierrez (Mariners).

 

That will at least allow us to be play "Twins/small ball" and win the close games (if we can shore up the bullpen too) and make other teams beat themselves with our pitching, base-running and defense.

[Balta1701]

I agree with that, but it's not like it's been a huge difference. The problem is up the middle the Sox have been pretty bad. De Aza, I don't know what happened to him, and again, it really began last year. No Beckham has made 2B an awful postion defensively for the Sox and whoever plays there, the ball seems to find. And Flowers has been terrible, he has reverted to the defensive model he had when he was acquired. Having Dunn use a glove more often hasn't helped either.

I could probably tolerate guys like Flowers and Keppinger booting the ball more often if they just could get the basics down. Hit the cutoff man. We know they can do it, they did it beautifully last season. Handle a rundown appropriately. They did it correctly, 1 or maximum 2 throws, seemingly the entire season last year. I think it was Saturday's game...rundown between 1st and 2nd, 4 throws. Harrelson was doing the "god that was pathetic" laugh.

 

They just act like they didn't practice a single thing all year.