Nate Jones is a poor relief pitcher

[Buehrle>Wood]

Not to derail the other thread...

 

 

Would love to see him sent down to find his control. We dont want to see Heath or Veal up here again, so who are the potential replacements? Not a huge deal since he is likely the last man in the pen. But adding an actual MLB arm would be huge. What about Santos Rodriguez? 25, beasting AA, and has AAA experience. FS lists him as a future closer. I guess I must be missing something on why he hasn't been given a chance yet.

[Eminor3rd]

Check this page out: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

 

When comparing this year's line and last year's line, I conclude that he's just fine and will be better going forward. Here's why:

 

1) 48.3% strand rate vs. 85.8%

 

League average strand rate is around 70%. There are instances of pitchers that are who are worse consistently either because they can't focus on the batter with runners on or because their stuff diminishes from the stretch. Typically, however, RPs are NOT among them, given that most of them always pitch from the stretch and come in with runners on base most of the time. Given Jones' success last year, I have no reason to believe he is below average. To me, it's a safe bet that this number will regress toward 70% going forward.

 

2) 7.01 ERA vs. 3.55 FIP

 

DIPS theory is not infallible by any stretch, but this difference is absolutely stark. Furthermore, his component rates (BB%, K%, HR/FB) are all very similar to last year's rates. The K's are down a touch, but the homeruns are better, resulting in a FIP that is very close to last year's 3.39. This is absolutely ripe for regression.

 

3) 11.9% walk rate vs. 10.6%

 

If Nate was really having major control issues (as compared to last year), this rate would be much higher.

 

Overall, I think this is a case of some bad luck in sequencing for Nate. I don't ever expect him to put up the same baseball card numbers as last year, but the peripherals are showing him to be essentially the same pitcher in terms of process and stuff. I think he's fine.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Marty34]

When you don't have a long-reliever it's impossible to hide Jones. He's a bullpen killer right now. I'll take Toronsco, anyone at the moment.

[Balta1701]

The contrast between the 2 previous posts could not possibly be more stark.

[Jake]

Check this page out: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

 

When comparing this year's line and last year's line, I conclude that he's just fine and will be better going forward. Here's why:

 

1) 48.3% strand rate vs. 85.8%

 

League average strand rate is around 70%. There are instances of pitchers that are who are worse consistently either because they can't focus on the batter with runners on or because their stuff diminishes from the stretch. Typically, however, RPs are NOT among them, given that most of them always pitch from the stretch and come in with runners on base most of the time. Given Jones' success last year, I have no reason to believe he is below average. To me, it's a safe bet that this number will regress toward 70% going forward.

 

2) 7.01 ERA vs. 3.55 FIP

 

DIPS theory is not infallible by any stretch, but this difference is absolutely stark. Furthermore, his component rates (BB%, K%, HR/FB) are all very similar to last year's rates. The K's are down a touch, but the homeruns are better, resulting in a FIP that is very close to last year's 3.39. This is absolutely ripe for regression.

 

3) 11.9% walk rate vs. 10.6%

 

If Nate was really having major control issues (as compared to last year), this rate would be much higher.

 

Overall, I think this is a case of some bad luck in sequencing for Nate. I don't ever expect him to put up the same baseball card numbers as last year, but the peripherals are showing him to be essentially the same pitcher in terms of process and stuff. I think he's fine.

 

I noticed all of those same things as well. He still is in trouble, though. He can't have more poor outings, luck or not. For now, Omogrosso should be getting higher leverage appearances than Jones.

[kitekrazy]

Cooper needs to use his magic wand if there is anything left of it.

[Eminor3rd]

The contrast between the 2 previous posts could not possibly be more stark.

 

lol

[elrockinMT]

Nate is young and struggling. He could have struck out 12 in a row last night and it wouldn't have made a difference. He needs to regain some confidence. Pitchers are a fickle bunch. He can still bring the heat so I think control and a good pitch mix is key

[Marty34]

The contrast between the 2 previous posts could not possibly be more stark.

 

What's the stat for straight fastball?

[Balta1701]

What's the stat for straight fastball?

[Marty34]

Getting bent-out-of-shape about sending down a guy who has the potential to be the next Bobby Howry shows you how bad things are talent-wise with this outfit.

[Eminor3rd]

What's the stat for straight fastball?

 

Marty -- the gist of what I'm saying is that regardless of how straight you think his fastball is, he is striking out nearly the same amount of guys, walking nearly the same amount of guys, giving up nearly the same amount of homeruns, and giving up nearly the same amount of hits on balls in play. The ONLY difference is his strand rate, which is currently freakishly low, as in no one EVER has a strand rate that low over an extended sample, and so that will likely regress with no change at all to his performance or approach.

 

Basically, if his stuff has changed, it isn't showing up in how well batters are hitting him.

[Eminor3rd]

What's the stat for straight fastball?

 

And since you asked, Pitch F/X records movement for every pitch. In 2012, his fastball averaged 6.8 inches of horizontal movement and 7.8 inches of vertical movement. In 2013, his fastball is averaging 6.8 inches of horizontal movement and 7.4 inches of vertical movement. His fastball is practically exactly the same.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

[JoshPR]

Why hasn't Troncoso been given a shot? I'm not ready to give up on jones but I believe coop's philosophy of pitching to contact doesn't suit him. Jones needs to have an edge, a chip on the shoulder a mentality that with his fastball he can be intimidating. When you throw upper 90's like him you have say here mother f....r this is my fastball try to hit it or I'll run you over. Check all hard throwing relievers that are successful they do 2 things. They come after you and they strike you out, they don't let the batter get confortable and they don't nibble. Jesse Crain has had that mentality lately. The same that Chapman, Grant Balfor, Bobby Jenks when he first came up, Rob Dibble and more. Those guys were/are intimidating and that added to there success

[Marty34]

Marty -- the gist of what I'm saying is that regardless of how straight you think his fastball is, he is striking out nearly the same amount of guys, walking nearly the same amount of guys, giving up nearly the same amount of homeruns, and giving up nearly the same amount of hits on balls in play. The ONLY difference is his strand rate, which is currently freakishly low, as in no one EVER has a strand rate that low over an extended sample, and so that will likely regress with no change at all to his performance or approach.

 

Basically, if his stuff has changed, it isn't showing up in how well batters are hitting him.

 

I didn't think he was all that great last year, serviceable, but not someone I'd trust in game that needed to be won. Too many inherited runners scored on his watch for my liking.

[Eminor3rd]

I didn't think he was all that great last year, serviceable, but not someone I'd trust in game that needed to be won. Too many inherited runners scored on his watch for my liking.

 

That is simply not true though. He had an 85% strand rate, which was the 11th best strand rate in the Majors of pitchers that threw at least 50 innings.

 

EDIT: for context, here are the only ten pitchers who stranded a higher percentage of runners than Nate Jones last year -- Kimbrel, Romo, Hanrahan, Rodney, Soriano, Frieri, Gregerson, Howell, Chapman, and Hector Santiago.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

Ramon Troncoso is not going to be a part of a White Sox World Series team, that much is guaranteed...

[Marty34]

That is simply not true though. He had an 85% strand rate, which was the 11th best strand rate in the Majors of pitchers that threw at least 50 innings.

 

Nate Jones very well maybe better than I think. He isn't very good right now though and should not be on the roster. I don't think he, or relievers in general, are worth keeping around if they haven't gotten anyone out for 2 months. As I said, I'm not going to lose sleep if the Sox somehow lose out on the next Bobby Howry. They're just as likely to strike gold with some other team's relief castoff. It's the nature of the position.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Marty34

[southsider2k5]

Getting bent-out-of-shape about sending down a guy who has the potential to be the next Bobby Howry shows you how bad things are talent-wise with this outfit.

 

Getting bent out of shape about a sixth inning reliever does tell me a lot.

[southsider2k5]

Why hasn't Troncoso been given a shot? I'm not ready to give up on jones but I believe coop's philosophy of pitching to contact doesn't suit him. Jones needs to have an edge, a chip on the shoulder a mentality that with his fastball he can be intimidating. When you throw upper 90's like him you have say here mother f....r this is my fastball try to hit it or I'll run you over. Check all hard throwing relievers that are successful they do 2 things. They come after you and they strike you out, they don't let the batter get confortable and they don't nibble. Jesse Crain has had that mentality lately. The same that Chapman, Grant Balfor, Bobby Jenks when he first came up, Rob Dibble and more. Those guys were/are intimidating and that added to there success

 

I'm going to coin a new rule. I am going to call it the Jeff Bajenaru Rule. Just because a guy is lighting up AAA baseball does not mean he is better than the guy who is getting beat up at the major league level. There is a direct correlation between the activation of this rule and the age of the player in question.

 

Also worth mentioning, Troncoso's eras from the years previous to this one, all at AAA.

 

2012 6.67

2011 5.05 (plus 6.75 in a short major league stint)

2010 5.73 (plus 4.33 at the major league level)

2009 4.99

[caulfield12]

Getting bent out of shape about a sixth inning reliever does tell me a lot.

 

 

In fairness, that's been a critical spot in some of our losses, with starters like Quintana, Axelrod and Santiago often unable to get out of the 5th or 6th.

 

If it's Santiago to be used there (when we have leads and not in mop up mode), that's one thing.

 

But there's always going to be a hole in the pen if we're simply relying on Jones to turn things around, or Lindstrom/Thornton/Crain to pitch multiple innings to get to the 9th.

 

Stretching Reed into multiple innings saves isn't the best idea, either.

[JoshPR]

I'm going to coin a new rule. I am going to call it the Jeff Bajenaru Rule. Just because a guy is lighting up AAA baseball does not mean he is better than the guy who is getting beat up at the major league level. There is a direct correlation between the activation of this rule and the age of the player in question.

 

Also worth mentioning, Troncoso's eras from the years previous to this one, all at AAA.

 

2012 6.67

2011 5.05 (plus 6.75 in a short major league stint)

2010 5.73 (plus 4.33 at the major league level)

2009 4.99

Just asking I don't really follow the farm like a lot of you. I just mentioned Troncoso for argument sake

[southsider2k5]

Just asking I don't really follow the farm like a lot of you. I just mentioned Troncoso for argument sake

 

There really isn't anything down there that we haven't already seen get its ass kicked at the major league level. The odds are better of Nate Jones turning it around, versus someone at AAA helping this team.

[caulfield12]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,1915154.story

 

Jones not going down to the minors anytime soon.

 

Cooper has a HUGE face in that video, haha. A bit scary.

[The Ginger Kid]

good day for Nate. String a few more together like that.