Dunn?

[Paulstar]

Balta, how many times have I said teams were solely terrible because Adam Dunn was on the roster? I have not once made that argument. You would be a fool to ignore the major pitching issues on the Reds or the influx of elite talent the Nationals had coming up after Dunn left.

 

My argument is simply this, I don't think it's purely coincidental that teams seem to get better shortly after Dunn leaves. What percentage of that is on Dunn? I dont know. But I tend to think that with his deficiencies as a player, the amount of money you have to spend on him, the questions for how much he exactly likes to play baseball; that it isn't completely out of the question that by subtracting Dunn from the equation, teams won't necessarily be sad that he's gone. I'm sorry if I misrepresented my argument, but I do not believe that he has ever been the sole reason for a team's failure, and I do not believe I ever said that. But I also believe if there is smoke, there is at least a little bit of fire.

[Harry Chappas]

Adam Dunn is fourth in baseball in home runs. Two guys ahead of him are triple crown candidates.

 

Teams need that. This is not 2003, power is a premium and Dunn has it.

[nickofypres]

Adam Dunn is fourth in baseball in home runs. Two guys ahead of him are triple crown candidates.

 

Teams need that. This is not 2003, power is a premium and Dunn has it.

 

True that.

 

I wonder who would take him on though? Baltimore? Padres? Rangers?

[Eminor3rd]

I honestly did not see that post. But you can also look at his career stats with two outs in an inning, runners in scoring position with two outs, bases loaded with two outs, his decline in stats once the game enter the 7th-8th-9th (but is extremely good in extra innings), etc. With all these stats available, you can take a hand full of stats and make them show one thing, but then take another and they would show something else.

 

And I am not a fan of the BR leverage stat. There are so many variations and different situations in baseball where sure, one situation based on runners on and how many outs might seem like high leverage, but there are so many different circumstances than can affect the degree of pressure.

 

Stats are great and all, but when you actually get to watch a player every day for a couple years, I think you can throw the stats out the window. You are gonna learn much more about a player from watching them vs. live pitching than stats will ever tell you. And from what I have seen from Dunn, as well as read and heard from others who got to watch him every day in Cincinnati, the man is always around losing teams. I never said he is the sole driving force for these said teams being losers, but I think its a little more than coincidental. If you want to cast it simply as just bad luck, be my guest. I'm not going to try and make you out to be a village idiot, but don't try and make me out to be one either because you disagree with me.

 

That is a ridiculous thing to say. Hundreds of experiments confirm the human brain's infallibility to remember things in proper perspective, so we use statistics as an objective measure of things to get over that hump. Decades of science disprove the bolded statement. Not everything can be measured, but when things CAN be measured, the raw evidence will always be more reliable than you or anyone else's selective bias. Show us the evidence that Adam Dunn is a loser that makes his teams worse -- several posters have shown evidence to the contrary.

[Eminor3rd]

And I completely agree with you. It would be lunacy to think otherwise, as it would be quite tough for one player to completely destroy a whole team. However, I felt like the Reds built their team around Dunn (was their highest paid player his final couple years there, I believe), and getting rid of Dunn and them becoming better wasn't completely coincidental.

 

Unfortunately, you can tell I have too much Hawk in me and I agree with him that winning is a whole lot more than stats (although I don't go as far as he did with TWTW stuff, he made himself out to look like a complete idiot when he was saying that stuff on mlbn) and have to do with the culture of a team and their clubhouse.

 

The point is that it is one thing to get a feeling about something and entirely another to insist it's true after you actually go look at the facts. No one is saying that a clubhouse cancer isn't a real problem, but you've made that claim without pointing to anything suggesting he's a clubhouse problem and also held to it in the face of all kinds of facts that refute it. There's nothing wrong with your opinion, it's just that this claim isn't really a matter of opinion.

[kitekrazy]

OK, well that tells more, and I can see where some of that comes from. But if the Rangers suddenly acquired him, I doubt they'd suddenly go in the tank and miss the playoffs. because he is Adam Dunn.

 

If he were in that lineup, he would be the Adam Dunn fans wanted. Performance at the plate can have a lot to do with where you are in the lineup and who is batting before and after you.

 

[kitekrazy]

Adam Dunn is fourth in baseball in home runs. Two guys ahead of him are triple crown candidates.

 

Teams need that. This is not 2003, power is a premium and Dunn has it.

 

Dunn is in a sucky lineup too.

 

 

 

[Jake]

If I'm Hahn, I'm asking Jerry for permission to make decisions only based on baseball and not finance. We are not in dire straits with money, lots is coming off the books no matter what we do. This is especially pertinent with Dunn.

 

If we agree that Adam Dunn today is no worse than the guy we've seen for the past two seasons (low, low average but 40 HRs and 100 RBI pace of production), then there should be a nice return in trade. Even if a trade partner this year agrees that Dunn has turned a corner and can be counted on to hit a bunch of homers, I highly doubt we can get enough of a return in baseball terms to make the trade make sense -- because, of course, the other team will leverage the remaining year on his contract as a big risk.

 

On the other hand, imagine Dunn is on a 40+ HR pace at the All-Star break next year. We are either competing due in part to his production (this would assume a couple FA signings and good luck) or...he suddenly has tremendous trade value because his contract no longer carries risk. Likewise, we would have the leverage of potentially getting a draft pick from him if he walks in FA in that scenario.

 

In the worst case, we pay him bad money. We'll have saved so much already, though, that to us (you know, fans that don't fund this payroll) there is no harm. You pay him in hopes of getting some great young baseball players in return. If you dump him now, you've saved money for sure. However, that money is EXTREMELY unlikely to become good baseball players since we are already likely to have 30-60 million dollars off the books by Opening Day next year. Another 15 probably isn't going to become yet another FA signing because I don't see us signing 4 players to big FA contracts in the same offseason because that's crazy.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Jake

[Y2Jimmy0]

If I'm Hahn, I'm asking Jerry for permission to make decisions only based on baseball and not finance. We are not in dire straits with money, lots is coming off the books no matter what we do. This is especially pertinent with Dunn.

 

If we agree that Adam Dunn today is no worse than the guy we've seen for the past two seasons (low, low average but 40 HRs and 100 RBI pace of production), then there should be a nice return in trade. Even if a trade partner this year agrees that Dunn has turned a corner and can be counted on to hit a bunch of homers, I highly doubt we can get enough of a return in baseball terms to make the trade make sense -- because, of course, the other team will leverage the remaining year on his contract as a big risk.

 

On the other hand, imagine Dunn is on a 40+ HR pace at the All-Star break next year. We are either competing due in part to his production (this would assume a couple FA signings and good luck) or...he suddenly has tremendous trade value because his contract no longer carries risk. Likewise, we would have the leverage of potentially getting a draft pick from him if he walks in FA in that scenario.

 

In the worst case, we pay him bad money. We'll have saved so much already, though, that to us (you know, fans that don't fund this payroll) there is no harm. You pay him in hopes of getting some great young baseball players in return. If you dump him now, you've saved money for sure. However, that money is EXTREMELY unlikely to become good baseball players since we are already likely to have 30-60 million dollars off the books by Opening Day next year. Another 15 probably isn't going to become yet another FA signing because I don't see us signing 4 players to big FA contracts in the same offseason because that's crazy.

 

Didn't you learn anything earlier in the thread? Nobody will acquire Dunn because he will immediately make their team worse because he is a loser.

[caulfield12]

If I'm Hahn, I'm asking Jerry for permission to make decisions only based on baseball and not finance. We are not in dire straits with money, lots is coming off the books no matter what we do. This is especially pertinent with Dunn.

 

If we agree that Adam Dunn today is no worse than the guy we've seen for the past two seasons (low, low average but 40 HRs and 100 RBI pace of production), then there should be a nice return in trade. Even if a trade partner this year agrees that Dunn has turned a corner and can be counted on to hit a bunch of homers, I highly doubt we can get enough of a return in baseball terms to make the trade make sense -- because, of course, the other team will leverage the remaining year on his contract as a big risk.

 

On the other hand, imagine Dunn is on a 40+ HR pace at the All-Star break next year. We are either competing due in part to his production (this would assume a couple FA signings and good luck) or...he suddenly has tremendous trade value because his contract no longer carries risk. Likewise, we would have the leverage of potentially getting a draft pick from him if he walks in FA in that scenario.

 

In the worst case, we pay him bad money. We'll have saved so much already, though, that to us (you know, fans that don't fund this payroll) there is no harm. You pay him in hopes of getting some great young baseball players in return. If you dump him now, you've saved money for sure. However, that money is EXTREMELY unlikely to become good baseball players since we are already likely to have 30-60 million dollars off the books by Opening Day next year. Another 15 probably isn't going to become yet another FA signing because I don't see us signing 4 players to big FA contracts in the same offseason because that's crazy.

 

 

You really think we're going to make a qualifying offer to Dunn after 2014?

 

Even if he was close to great next season, he's been so up and down with us I would have a hard time imagining the White Sox taking the risk (of say a another $13 million investment at least) that he doesn't find a better deal elsewhere and ends up being on the roster again in 2015. It's not worth it, IMO.

 

Going into that scenario would be somewhat similar to having gotten stuck with Orlando Cabrera in 2009, and blocking Alexei from taking over SS.

Edited July 3, 2013 by caulfield12

[Vance Law]

Just wanted to note that since posting this, Dunn has put up a .985 OPS with 10 home runs over 30 games. So, you're welcome, everyone. It worked.

 

 

 

[max power]

Not the greatest timing considering he just booted one to tie the game up.

[max power]

Right now would be a better moment.

[flavum]

Trade this man!

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3/4 2 RBI Walk off HR . Now hitting .207 !

[2nd_city_saint787]

Batting close to .300 in his last 30 games! I wonder if he's ever had a month this good in his career?

[greg775]

He's officially one of the game's best sluggers again following a month of excellence and today's game-winning HR. The question is ... does any team care and want him? Should be very interesting to see if Sox can move Dunn.

[Jake]

sign this guy to an extension FAST

[greg775]

Dunn 0-3 with 3 Ks tonight. Did Robin really pinch hit for him? That's crazy if true. First time we've not let the big guy whiff all 4 times on those nights he can't hit the ball. If true, kudos to Robin for having the guts to sit the big fella, I'm assuming the fourth at bat against a lefty?

[justBLAZE]

Dunn 0-3 with 3 Ks tonight. Did Robin really pinch hit for him? That's crazy if true. First time we've not let the big guy whiff all 4 times on those nights he can't hit the ball. If true, kudos to Robin for having the guts to sit the big fella, I'm assuming the fourth at bat against a lefty?

 

Robin sat pretty much everybody, including Alexei who played all the innings this year up to this point.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Batting close to .300 in his last 30 games! I wonder if he's ever had a month this good in his career?

 

 

I would imagine that he has. He always did things like that. He would go on these runs and then fall into 2 week lulls. The man will finish his career with well over 500 homers. I can't prove it but I bet he has seen streaks like this before.

[Jake]

Since he has had seasons where he batted over .260, he probably had extended runs of batting .300 in those seasons.

[greg775]

Dunn whiffed 2 more times today. Is he starting a Dunn-like streak of whiffs (three yesterday) now that we're on the road again?

[LittleHurt05]

Dunn whiffed 2 more times today. Is he starting a Dunn-like streak of whiffs (three yesterday) now that we're on the road again?

 

 

No.