You're Hahn, who are you looking to trade first?

[LittleHurt05]

The Mets are said to have interest in Rios....What would you guys think of a deal built around Wilmer Flores? 21 y.o. 3B prospect who's currently hitting over .300 in AAA with a .837 OPS....Kid still has room to grow and the fact that he's already made it to AAA is encouraging.....I would ask for some lower level talent as well.

 

If the Mets actually traded a prospect for Alex Rios, than their front office is even dumber than they appear. (which is hard to do)

[The Ultimate Champion]

The problem is going to be, outside of Rios and Peavy...none of those guys would be expected to bring back an MLB-ready impact bat, and Peavy the answer might be "Maybe" depending on how his health goes at this point. You might be able to get an impact player, but not one who is ready to step in right away for the other guys.

 

Remember...if a player is nearly MLB ready, the team isn't going to give him up without a big return, because the team could make themselves better just by bringing that player up and fitting him into the rotation "somehow" even if he's not at a position of need.

Every player we would trade could bring back a very good player, impact player, etc. should we make the right moves. There are all kinds of fallen out of favor/bust types out there who are MLB ready, there are all kinds of prospects who people thought the world of a few months ago/a year ago whatever who have struggled or stalled, etc.

 

The absolute last thing I want to see the Sox do & I've said this time & time again is try to deal off their best players for a couple prospects currently at the peaks of their value. That's the easiest way to come back with nothing. We need to target players who we think we could finish developing, not necessarily quantity over quality but a quantity of potential quality at bargain rates.

 

The Sox need their next Uribe/Alexei/etc. and both of those guys were supposedly nothing special when they were acquired, Alexei being the UT type not good enough to ever start (was starting like 4 months after those comments) and Uribe being IIRC the schizophrenic just doesn't get it type who 1 year after being acquired led the defense to a World Championship. Let's focus more on finding those types and let's not worry about what other teams scouts are saying and so on.

[ChiSox59]

Every player we would trade could bring back a very good player, impact player, etc. should we make the right moves. There are all kinds of fallen out of favor/bust types out there who are MLB ready, there are all kinds of prospects who people thought the world of a few months ago/a year ago whatever who have struggled or stalled, etc.

 

The absolute last thing I want to see the Sox do & I've said this time & time again is try to deal off their best players for a couple prospects currently at the peaks of their value. That's the easiest way to come back with nothing. We need to target players who we think we could finish developing, not necessarily quantity over quality but a quantity of potential quality at bargain rates.

 

The Sox need their next Uribe/Alexei/etc. and both of those guys were supposedly nothing special when they were acquired, Alexei being the UT type not good enough to ever start (was starting like 4 months after those comments) and Uribe being IIRC the schizophrenic just doesn't get it type who 1 year after being acquired led the defense to a World Championship. Let's focus more on finding those types and let's not worry about what other teams scouts are saying and so on.

 

Your posts crack me up. What you think, I think, or anyone else thinks on this board literally means nothing. I like talking about possible trades and playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but you bring it to a whole new level. For years KW was the market setter. It is time to try a different strategy. If teams were calling and offering their top tier minor league talent for the likes of Rios, Peavy, Crain, Thornton, Paulie, Dunn, Alexei, etc. there would have been a deal made already. There is no point in making a trade just to make a trade, which you consistently advocate for.

 

Now, I do think Rios, Peavy and Crain should command a very solid return. Hell, James Shields turned into Will Myers, and Shields only had 1 year left of his contract. Whether Shield and Peavy are equivilants is an arguementfor different day, and Peavy getting injured really did hurt, puns aside, but Hahn should still be able to get a pretty hefty return for Jake. It will come, patience young lad.

[Harry Chappas]

Rios and Crain currently could turn into some real special players on the trade market.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Your posts crack me up. What you think, I think, or anyone else thinks on this board literally means nothing. I like talking about possible trades and playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but you bring it to a whole new level. For years KW was the market setter. It is time to try a different strategy. If teams were calling and offering their top tier minor league talent for the likes of Rios, Peavy, Crain, Thornton, Paulie, Dunn, Alexei, etc. there would have been a deal made already. There is no point in making a trade just to make a trade, which you consistently advocate for.

 

Now, I do think Rios, Peavy and Crain should command a very solid return. Hell, James Shields turned into Will Myers, and Shields only had 1 year left of his contract. Whether Shield and Peavy are equivilants is an arguementfor different day, and Peavy getting injured really did hurt, puns aside, but Hahn should still be able to get a pretty hefty return for Jake. It will come, patience young lad.

My point is really more about getting value back doesn't necessary mean you're getting players that the fans, baseball writers, etc. give a s*** about.

 

The baseball writers consistently underrate solid MLB contributors & will herald unproven prospects as something special. Case in point: any kid out there with a solid fastball & some kind of secondary pitch is going to be labeled as a future 5th starter. The prospect isn't special at all, and calling him a 5th starter makes the role of an MLB proven 5th starter seem like nothing. But really, it is important, and players who can get several years in doing that can make a s***load of money. On the other side, often times very talented kids with ceilings higher, more like 3's (like Hudson, Q, Santiago, etc.) are also labeled as 5's coming through the minors. So if you're the Sox and it's 2010, and you've just acquired Jose Quintana, Hector Santiago, and Addison Reed for a very good proven player, you've just acquired someone's top prospect who looks like a closer & 2 5th starters. Great, you just traded your excellent player for a reliever & 2 guys you didn't even want. But if you make that move then & look back at it now, guess what? That's one hell of a deal, because you got 3 good young MLB players who are going to be under control & make nothing for a while.

 

Re: the Rays-Royals trade, Wil Myers is unproven. The Rays traded an excellent proven starting pitcher and another MLB player in Davis who really has a world of talent & has the upside of a top-end starter, and in return they got 4 players who hadn't appeared in a Major League game. Even if Myers turns into a good player, that is far from a sure win for the Rays. And if Myers busts? That deal could end uo looking horrific, especially if Shields is extended by KC & Davis plays up to his ability.

 

I definitely don't want all my eggs in one basket. In fact, I'm looking forward to a bunch of deals that look absolutely underwhelming on paper but look pretty good on the field, at least that's what I'm hoping for. We won our only WS in forever with a team full of non-superstars, just some good players, and the only guy on that team who had ever been or ever will be a superstar was hurt most of the year & never saw action in the playoffs. We don't need to try to trade our best players for a package headlined by one "superstar" prospect who probably will have a pretty high bust rate. I mean, if some team is going to take Peavy/Rios and trade us the next Triple Crown winner who happens to be hitting .350 in AAA then there's probably a good reason they're willing to do it, and I hope we have enough good people in attendance watching his games to spot that reason & call shenanigans if we see it. No more Molinas please.

[witesoxfan]

I really don't think trading Peavy at this point can be considered an option. He's hurt, so that immediately devalues him, plus coming off an injury, teams won't give proper value (ie a #2 starter tied up to a contract) for him right now either.

 

If he clears waivers or someone wants to trade for him in the offseason, that's fine, but I don't think he's going to show enough in 2 weeks or whatever to maximize his value.

[2nd_city_saint787]

If the Mets actually traded a prospect for Alex Rios, than their front office is even dumber than they appear. (which is hard to do)

 

Well if they truly are interested in Rios (I misread the article, it says they SHOULD be interested in him) what would they give up if not prospects?

[greg775]

Greg, who's having the better year: Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn? Just wondering.....

 

I dunno. Even tho Dunn has 18 bombs, I personally think he's been lousy. Paulie is finished, I think everybody agrees with that. But I would not "stick it out" with Dunn.

[Jake]

I dunno. Even tho Dunn has 18 bombs, I personally think he's been lousy. Paulie is finished, I think everybody agrees with that. But I would not "stick it out" with Dunn.

 

The idea is that nobody is going to give you anything for Dunn. Given the other moves we're going to make, plus the imminent losses of PK, Floyd, Thornton, Crain to free agency, we really don't even stand to gain much by saving the money if someone DID take him for nothing. In this case, you keep him in your lineup. Home runs are fun and bring fans to the ballpark and if you're not contending NEXT year and he's still looking like a 40 HR hitter, someone probably will give you something significant for him because he won't cost so much $ in the final year of his contract. In the worst case, you're paying him money that we were unlikely to spend anyway so us as fans aren't hurt by it anyway.

[greg775]

The idea is that nobody is going to give you anything for Dunn. Given the other moves we're going to make, plus the imminent losses of PK, Floyd, Thornton, Crain to free agency, we really don't even stand to gain much by saving the money if someone DID take him for nothing. In this case, you keep him in your lineup. Home runs are fun and bring fans to the ballpark and if you're not contending NEXT year and he's still looking like a 40 HR hitter, someone probably will give you something significant for him because he won't cost so much $ in the final year of his contract. In the worst case, you're paying him money that we were unlikely to spend anyway so us as fans aren't hurt by it anyway.

 

Home runs are fun, definitely, but I think Dunn is almost an exception to that rule. He's been so lousy that just seeing him stride to the plate is buzzkill. Am I in the minority on this? I just think Dunn is about the worst player in White Sox history and I hate seeing him walk to the plate. If there are any Dunn fans out there, I stand corrected.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Home runs are fun, definitely, but I think Dunn is almost an exception to that rule. He's been so lousy that just seeing him stride to the plate is buzzkill. Am I in the minority on this? I just think Dunn is about the worst player in White Sox history and I hate seeing him walk to the plate. If there are any Dunn fans out there, I stand corrected.

If you're somebody's CF/2B/SS/C etc. and you're hitting 7-8 on a team blasting home runs while hitting below .200 then everyone is going to love you because you're helping the team win games. Heck, even as a DH, Dunn hitting at the bottom of the order with some men on in front of him, in a dynamic, well-balanced offense, isn't a problem at all. But here, every negative about his game is accentuated by the overall s***tiness of the entire offense, and the contract keeps him in there. But Dunn really isn't even a problem ATM because every issue should be about a future which he is clearly not a part of.

[LittleHurt05]

Well if they truly are interested in Rios (I misread the article, it says they SHOULD be interested in him) what would they give up if not prospects?

 

I haven't seen the article, but I just don't understand why the Mets should trade a prospect for Rios. They aren't that close to contending, their stud pitchers are super young, so it's not like their window is closing.

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/forget-jona...et-jesse-crain/

 

Forget Jonathan Papelbon, Target Jesse Crain

by Dave Cameron - June 17, 2013

 

Now that the draft is behind us and we’re only six weeks away from the trade deadline, we’re officially in rumor season. This time of year, we’ll be treated to an almost daily look at which teams might be buying or selling and what players could be changing uniforms before the end of July. The Phillies are probably the most interesting potential seller, because their roster is littered with big name players who would draw headlines if traded. Ruben Amaro has been clear that he does not intend to “blow up” the roster, but that doesn’t rule out making any trades at all, as he even noted that he didn’t think the Red Sox “blew up” their roster last year when they traded three of their most expensive players in one deal.

 

So, assuming the Phillies fall far enough back in the race to convince Amaro to be a seller, Jonathan Papelbon is probably going to be one of the most talked about trade targets of the summer. Contenders are always looking for bullpen help, and certain contenders — yes, Detroit, we’re talking about you — have glaring holes at the back end of their bullpen that could use a significant upgrade. Papelbon is still a terrific reliever, and his postseason track record will appeal to teams who put a lot of stock in experience in the ninth inning role.

 

However, I have a suggestion for any team that is considering giving up talent and taking on a good sized chunk of the roughly $34 million left on Papelbon’s deal; trade for Jesse Crain instead.

 

Crain is probably the single most likely player to change teams this summer. The White Sox aren’t going to be in the playoff picture this year, Crain is a free agent at year’s end, and with Jake Peavy hitting the disabled list, he’s probably their single best trade chip to try and bring back some young talent. Toss in the fact that he’s only making $4.5 million in total this year, and Crain doesn’t come with any of the things that might hold a team back from acquiring Papelbon. And while he might not have the proven closer label, he’s developed into a guy who has earned a shot at a ninth inning gig.

 

Early in his career, Crain was a pitch-to-contact groundball guy, relying heavily on his fastball and basically becoming the kind of pitcher the Twins have become notorious for. Finally, in his final year in Minnesota in 2010, he cut his fastball rate dramatically and started relying much more heavily on his slider, and his strikeout rate jumped as a result. The White Sox gave him a three year contract as a free agent that winter, and under the tutelage of pitching coach Don Cooper, Crain has continued to develop his secondary stuff and has turned into a strikeout machine. A graph of his career K/9 shows his development.

 

[CHART]

 

Trading fastballs for breaking balls is great for getting hitters to swing and miss, but it’s not so great for throwing strikes, so some of Crain’s gain in strikeout rate was offset by a rise in his walk rate. It’s better to be a high BB/high K reliever than a low BB/low K reliever, especially in late inning situations where strikeouts can strand runners in ways that balls in play cannot, so overall, Crain’s changes made him a better reliever, but the walks held him back from being a true relief ace.

 

This year, Crain has cut his walk rate dramatically by swapping out some sliders for an increase in curveball usage. Last year, he threw the curve approximately 6% of the time, while this year it’s up to 15%. The addition of more frequently used second breaking ball has given hitters another pitch to look for besides fastball/slider, and a well placed curveball can be a great way for a pitcher to steal a strike early in the count.

 

As you can see from the PITCHF/x section of Crain’s player page, hitters are only chasing 55% of the curveballs Crain has thrown in the strike zone this year, down from 65% last year and 75% the year before. As a result, nearly 1-in-3 curveballs that Crain has thrown this year have resulted in a called strike, and Crain has begun to throw first pitch curveballs to left-handed hitters with some regularity.

 

According to Brooks Baseball’s player card, Crain didn’t throw a single first pitch curve to a left-handed batter last year, as he used it almost exclusively when he was ahead in the count. Like most pitchers, he was fastballs early to get ahead, then breaking balls late to put hitters away, especially against left-handers.

 

This year, though, Crain is throwing 25% first pitch curveballs to left-handed hitters, and now he’s his using his four seam fastball as a putaway pitch with two strikes. The results? Hitters are staring at early count breaking balls, falling behind in the count, and then chasing out-of-the-zone fastballs for strike three. Basically, Crain has learned how to pitch backwards, and instead of relying on getting ahead of hitters with his mediocre fastball command, he’s getting hitters to chase pitches in locations they wouldn’t have previously chased because they came early in the count.

 

For reference, here’s Crain O-Swing% on fastballs for each of the last three years:

 

2011: 25.5%

2012: 22.2%

2013: 36.1%

 

A 36% O-Swing% on a fastball is pretty remarkable. To bring this full circle, hitters have a 33% O-Swing rate against Jonathan Papelbon’s fastball during the PITCHF/x era, and he’s dominated as a ninth inning ace by getting hitters to chase well located high fastballs. Papelbon still relies heavily on his fastball and his approach still works, but Crain appears to be learning how to emulate Papelbon’s biggest asset without relying on it to the same degree.

 

Because he throws so many breaking balls, Crain is always going to walk more batters than Papelbon, but the addition of the curveball and his willingness to steal strikes early in the count have made Crain devastatingly effective this year. He’s crushing right-handers as always — they are hitting .180/.234/.233 against him — but is also dominating left-handed hitters, holding them to just a .216/.298/.255 mark. And, despite the fact that his slider is still his best pitch, the White Sox haven’t really used Crain in a situational role this year, so his numbers aren’t wildly inflated by facing primarily right-handed hitters; he’s at 53/47 in terms of RHBs/LHBs faced.

 

Papelbon’s track record and name recognition are vastly superior to Crain’s, but given their performances over the last few years, its hard to make a case that Crain isn’t at least in the same ballpark in terms of late inning reliever dominance. And yet, unlike Papelbon, Crain isn’t due $13 million in salary each of the next two years, and an acquiring team won’t have to pay the “proven closer” premium that will certainly be attached to Papelbon in trade talks.

 

Rather than sitting around and waiting for the Phillies to decide to trade to their highly compensated proven closer, teams should be beating down Rick Hahn’s door to acquire Crain sooner than later. Whether its the Tigers or some other contender shopping for bullpen help this summer, the name brand might have the headline drawing appeal, but there’s a generic version in Chicago who might be just as good for a fraction of the price.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I haven't seen the article, but I just don't understand why the Mets should trade a prospect for Rios. They aren't that close to contending, their stud pitchers are super young, so it's not like their window is closing.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/05/trad...-alex-rios.html

 

I didn't read the hyper-link (last paragraph) until after my first post, thus the mix up between "interested" and "should be interested".

 

[southsider2k5]

I also hate to say this, but trading Jesse Crain right now is a great idea. He isn't going to last like this all season, and will return to the mean. Let someone else deal with that.

[Eminor3rd]

Home runs are fun, definitely, but I think Dunn is almost an exception to that rule. He's been so lousy that just seeing him stride to the plate is buzzkill. Am I in the minority on this? I just think Dunn is about the worst player in White Sox history and I hate seeing him walk to the plate. If there are any Dunn fans out there, I stand corrected.

 

Man, how soon we forget Mark Kotsay and his 85% groundout-to-2B rate.

[Eminor3rd]

I also hate to say this, but trading Jesse Crain right now is a great idea. He isn't going to last like this all season, and will return to the mean. Let someone else deal with that.

 

Yes, this is the case with all hot relievers aside from the absolutely elite, I think. Towers acquired a ton of talent selling off his bullpen every year in SD for a while. RPs just don't last, they are volatile commodities. Crain will never be more valuable.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[GreatScott82]

Any chance of competing with Detroit in 2013 is over. Now is our chance to sell high on Crain and Rios- pull that trigger, Hahn! If Peavy returns before the trade deadline and proves to be healthy- we may have a chance at dealing him as well. Lets shed as much salary as we can, lets restock the farm and start fresh next year.

[witesoxfan]

The best comparison I can come up with off hand for a Rios deal is Hunter Pence for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph, and Nate Schierholtz last deadline. Rosin and Joseph look like mediocre prospects (though highly drafted, 4th and 2nd rounds respectively) and Schierholtz left in free agency to the Cubs (and is having a great year).

 

All I'm going to say is that dealing Rios is risky.

[Balta1701]

The best comparison I can come up with off hand for a Rios deal is Hunter Pence for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph, and Nate Schierholtz last deadline. Rosin and Joseph look like mediocre prospects (though highly drafted, 4th and 2nd rounds respectively) and Schierholtz left in free agency to the Cubs (and is having a great year).

 

All I'm going to say is that dealing Rios is risky.

Didn't Pence only have 2 months remaining on his contract at the time?

[fathom]

The best comparison I can come up with off hand for a Rios deal is Hunter Pence for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph, and Nate Schierholtz last deadline. Rosin and Joseph look like mediocre prospects (though highly drafted, 4th and 2nd rounds respectively) and Schierholtz left in free agency to the Cubs (and is having a great year).

 

All I'm going to say is that dealing Rios is risky.

 

IIRC, Joseph was a very highly rated catching prospect

[southsider2k5]

The best comparison I can come up with off hand for a Rios deal is Hunter Pence for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph, and Nate Schierholtz last deadline. Rosin and Joseph look like mediocre prospects (though highly drafted, 4th and 2nd rounds respectively) and Schierholtz left in free agency to the Cubs (and is having a great year).

 

All I'm going to say is that dealing Rios is risky.

 

The reality is that the chances of any prospect being as good as the players we trade away is pretty minimal. Historically prospects bust at a way higher rate than they do succeed.

[witesoxfan]

I believe all of that to be true.

 

Basically, my point is that it isn't necessary to trade Rios. I believe the Sox should trade one of Rios and De Aza, but not to force the issue.

[Eminor3rd]

The best comparison I can come up with off hand for a Rios deal is Hunter Pence for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph, and Nate Schierholtz last deadline. Rosin and Joseph look like mediocre prospects (though highly drafted, 4th and 2nd rounds respectively) and Schierholtz left in free agency to the Cubs (and is having a great year).

 

All I'm going to say is that dealing Rios is risky.

 

His contract is much better. Teams getting him will get an additional year plus an option year at slightly below market rates for a 3-4 win OF. That's substantially more valuable than a 2 month rental.

 

Meanwhile, keeping him will just a dd a few wins to our garbage year. If we're going to be bad for a couple years, I want to be able to watch some players develop -- that's the only thing that will keep any interest for any of us.

[southsider2k5]

I believe all of that to be true.

 

Basically, my point is that it isn't necessary to trade Rios. I believe the Sox should trade one of Rios and De Aza, but not to force the issue.

 

I don't see Alejandro having much value right now. Rios is the chip without a doubt.