Phil Rogers throws KW under the bus

[caulfield12]

I'll say this.

 

In the times when I've written him e-mails, he's always responded thoughtfully and within a day or two.

Edited June 9, 2013 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

Well I am glad some posters finally realized how hypocritical those comments are. Phil Rogers is the guy ranking our prospects for Baseball America when he has absolutely no clue what the hell he is talking about. Phil Rogers is the guy going on Chicago Tribune Live looking as unprepared to comment intelligently on Chicago baseball as my mother. The guy is just an incredible waste of space...for him to claim that someone else isn't putting in the work is mind-boggling.

 

Usually responses to his articles reflect this.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

There is definitely a handful or two that do.

 

Rogers just falls in love with people for reasons I don't understand. He also has a distinguished and remarkable track record of being wrong on said players.

Most people here do, and it's because most people here can watch a game & know what it is they are watching. The reason Rogers falls in love with players IMO is because he is incapable of forming his own opinion based on what he's looking at. As far as I know, he asks around about some players, gets some responses, and then prints it.

 

And that BTW is why I don't trust most of these prospect guys out there, they have very little to go on whether it is positive or negative, and so they largely just print other people's opinions without forming their own solid one based on what they have seen. And with the Wilder stuff you see right away the potential downside of that, with Rogers basically acting as the mouthpiece for a guy who was f***ing over an organization. I would always trust what someone here (like JPN for instance) has to say about a player he has actually seen several times in the minor leagues vs. the typical "I've been hearing..." or "scouts are saying.." etc. junk you get from the gurus. There are waaaaaay too many minor league players in each of the 30 organizations to follow, and factoring in the new draftees, the next draft class, the international players, the graduated players, etc. there's just too many players out there to get a read on.

 

And again, what makes Phil specifically so special is that not only can he not tell the difference between a mediocre or worse prospect trumpeted as a man-child and a genuine player, but neither can he tell the difference between a proven workhorse MLB starter and a long reliever with a handful of MLB starts across parts of two seasons. None of us (as far as I know) are paid to watch and evaluate players, speak to a large audience on the topic of baseball, etc. but I would not doubt that for most of the posters on this site, if properly motivated & having been given the same career opportunity Phil Rogers has, would do a far, far superior job. And I know this day in the internet age it's en vogue to declare someone like Rogers, Cowley, etc. garbage and proclaim that so-and-so the internet fan blogger would do that job much better, but really, you read any of these baseball blogs and most of their writers are smarter, more thorough, and much more knowledgeable about the game of baseball. There is evidence everywhere that Rogers is the Adam Dunn of baseball, i.e. he's there on a contract, you have to pay him, but please god make him go away soon.

[Chisoxfn]

On another subject...I'm all for a Ethier for Dunn deal.

[LittleHurt05]

On another subject...I'm all for a Ethier for Dunn deal.

 

Maybe if the Dodgers pay for half of Ethier's contract. He is still due $69 million from 2014-2017. No thanks, I'd rather just eat the last year of Dunn's deal.

[Eminor3rd]

On another subject...I'm all for a Ethier for Dunn deal.

 

If the Dodgers ate money AND we trade Alex Rios, I'd be down. But what the hell would the Dodgers do with Dunn? He's not playing over AGon.

[Chisoxfn]

Maybe if the Dodgers pay for half of Ethier's contract. He is still due $69 million from 2014-2017. No thanks, I'd rather just eat the last year of Dunn's deal.

Dude has put up an .800+ OPS every season of his career but 1 in Dodger stadium. Plays a solid defensive outfield, hits from the left side, good OBP. I think it is highly unlikely the Dodgers would have any interest in the deal (since it would mean moving Adrian Gonzalez to the OF or I suppose playing Dunn out there)...however, if so, we'd be getting a far better all around player. Dunn has what, another year left? I agree you'd need some cash to come as well since at this point the Dodgers want him out (and to be frank...at least based on all the rumblings...he's wanted out for a couple years too).

[LittleHurt05]

Dude has put up an .800+ OPS every season of his career but 1 in Dodger stadium. Plays a solid defensive outfield, hits from the left side, good OBP. I think it is highly unlikely the Dodgers would have any interest in the deal (since it would mean moving Adrian Gonzalez to the OF or I suppose playing Dunn out there)...however, if so, we'd be getting a far better all around player. Dunn has what, another year left? I agree you'd need some cash to come as well since at this point the Dodgers want him out (and to be frank...at least based on all the rumblings...he's wanted out for a couple years too).

 

I just worry about his age 34 & 35 seasons at the end of the deal. If he declines, then you are stuck with an expensive platoon player that you are looking to salary dump on someone again.

[Chisoxfn]

I just worry about his age 34 & 35 seasons at the end of the deal. If he declines, then you are stuck with an expensive platoon player that you are looking to salary dump on someone again.

Fair point. I'd hope you get him at a discount, he puts up a good year and you can opt to move him for some talent. I didn't realize he was so old.

[LittleHurt05]

Fair point. I'd hope you get him at a discount, he puts up a good year and you can opt to move him for some talent. I didn't realize he was so old.

 

Neither did I until people started bringing up his name in trade rumors. I always assumed he was like 27 or 28 right now, not 31.

[caulfield12]

Ethier's too old and his splits vs. RHP and LHP are becoming alarming.

 

If we're going to do that kind of deal, I'd pick BJ Upton over Ethier because of his defensive skills and the fact that he's younger and is only one season removed from 27 homers with the Rays.

 

Granted, it's risky. Ethier is a SOLID player, but he doesn't have the all-around ability that Upton has, overall.

 

And, most importantly, we need to get some speed back on our team...other than Ramirez, Rios and DeAza, we're still that same station-to-station team.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I would rather let Adam Dunn strike out another 300 times between now and the end of 2014 rather than trade him for either Ethier or Upton. The Sox are going to be getting out of a bad contract then rather than right back into one.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The Dodgers like to make Playstation trades anyway, so forget Ethier because we don't want him anyway.

 

Alexei + Crain + Keppinger + Dunn for Dee Gordon + Juan Uribe

 

Uribe's in the last year of his deal & would replace Keppinger's bad contract, he'd be our UT guy again and clubhouse guy until someone offered to take on part of his remaining deal. Gordon gets plugged in now & we see what he has, so basically Alexei and Crain buy out Dunn's deal and all the money we owe to Keppinger. The Sox get more payroll room and can now start shopping Reed heavily in search of a starting position player.

 

For the Dodgers, Crain is League insurance and bullpen depth, Alexei makes them a s***load better, Keppinger is their UT guy, and they just release Dunn simply because it is easier to take on a player's contract & eat the money, and I doubt MLB offices would approve LA sending us $25M or whatever it is that would be left on Dunn's deal. For the Dodgers their chances go way up & they really give up nothing.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

And actually if I'm Hahn I'm doing whatever I can do to make a deal with the Dodgers trying to get even more cash off the books.

 

They could really use Alexei, they could really use another righty reliever, a 3rd baseman, starting pitching, quite a bit actually and we have pieces they would be interested in. We make a deal with them & we might be able to clear out some major payroll room. I'd be interested in Ellis from their side but I don't think they'd want to deal him, and that's fine, the payroll space would be the main idea.

[Jake]

I think in all due time, this board will be exceedingly indifferent about Jeff Keppinger's contract.

[Balta1701]

I think in all due time, this board will be exceedingly indifferent about Jeff Keppinger's contract.

If we're "Exceedingly indifferent" about a guy making $3 million as a platoon player/part time starter, then we'll have run out of things to be indifferent about.

[The Ultimate Champion]

This is a terrible idea. We're getting no value out of Crain/Alexei.

Yeah, if you completely gloss over the $23.5M owed to both Keppinger & Dunn from 2014 on. In fact if the Sox could do a deal like that without taking back Uribe, maybe taking back Hairston ($3.75M) instead, they would dump about $60M there.

 

I know you love prospects but if you trade Alexei & Crain for prospects & then have to rely on them then you're probably up s*** creek. Take advantage of the Dodgers free-spending ways if you can. I want a get out of jail free card too.

[Eminor3rd]

The Dodgers like to make Playstation trades anyway, so forget Ethier because we don't want him anyway.

 

Alexei + Crain + Keppinger + Dunn for Dee Gordon + Juan Uribe

 

Uribe's in the last year of his deal & would replace Keppinger's bad contract, he'd be our UT guy again and clubhouse guy until someone offered to take on part of his remaining deal. Gordon gets plugged in now & we see what he has, so basically Alexei and Crain buy out Dunn's deal and all the money we owe to Keppinger. The Sox get more payroll room and can now start shopping Reed heavily in search of a starting position player.

 

For the Dodgers, Crain is League insurance and bullpen depth, Alexei makes them a s***load better, Keppinger is their UT guy, and they just release Dunn simply because it is easier to take on a player's contract & eat the money, and I doubt MLB offices would approve LA sending us $25M or whatever it is that would be left on Dunn's deal. For the Dodgers their chances go way up & they really give up nothing.

 

Blech

[DirtySox]

The Dodgers like to make Playstation trades anyway, so forget Ethier because we don't want him anyway.

 

Alexei + Crain + Keppinger + Dunn for Dee Gordon + Juan Uribe

 

Uribe's in the last year of his deal & would replace Keppinger's bad contract, he'd be our UT guy again and clubhouse guy until someone offered to take on part of his remaining deal. Gordon gets plugged in now & we see what he has, so basically Alexei and Crain buy out Dunn's deal and all the money we owe to Keppinger. The Sox get more payroll room and can now start shopping Reed heavily in search of a starting position player.

 

For the Dodgers, Crain is League insurance and bullpen depth, Alexei makes them a s***load better, Keppinger is their UT guy, and they just release Dunn simply because it is easier to take on a player's contract & eat the money, and I doubt MLB offices would approve LA sending us $25M or whatever it is that would be left on Dunn's deal. For the Dodgers their chances go way up & they really give up nothing.

 

Awful.

[witesoxfan]

I like Dee Gordon but there's no way I'm giving up that much for him, even if the deal does free up a bunch of payroll. At that point, you may as well give up an OK arm and take a shot on Jemile Weeks, even if he does play 2B, or bring him in and ship Beckham out (though I really don't like the idea of dealing Beckham right now either).

 

I think you might have the workings of a trade there, but you absolutely need more than that.

[Jake]

If we're "Exceedingly indifferent" about a guy making $3 million as a platoon player/part time starter, then we'll have run out of things to be indifferent about.

 

 

In the long run, he'll be a guy that produces about $4M per year and it just won't be a determining important factor for the success of our franchise either way, just like most $4M per year deals. It'll be a fair deal.

[fathom]

If you want to take advantage of the Dodgers and their spending, offer them up Danks in a few weeks due to all the injuries they have in their rotation. The Dodgers absolutely won't take Dunn.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you think Danks has a shot at returning to even close to full strength then you keep him & you get back good players because good LHSP is extremely valuable around the league. Also I don't see what would be the difference between taking on such a miserable contract as Carl Crawford, or eating an enormous amount of Ethier's deal, and taking on Dunn's deal to pick up some good players & then dumping him.

 

Anyone thinking we can trade Crain and Alexei and get back players who will immediately begin to perform at a level similar to, or exceeding, the massive amounts of cash we'd dump in such a deal IMO isn't being even close to realistic. It's nice to hope for, but unrealistic. In fact, here's a fangraphs article written a month ago http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gimme-some-dee-gordon/ saying Dee Gordon should be the Dodgers SS of the future & lead-off man pushing Hanley to 3B. I'm not sure why he's any worse than Joe Schmoe the other unproven SS who everyone loves right now & will swear sucks a fat one 2 months from now.

 

If you can dump cash then you can trade off a more valuable piece like Reed for some prospects, then take those prospects & send them out for a pre-arb MLB player or an MLB vet on a team-friendly deal. With the cash savings you look to sign a couple value free agents with real baseball skills, more like the Dye deal when we got him, or picking up AJ, and you shy away from buying players at the peaks of their value, ala Dunn & Keppinger.

 

BTW all anyone has to do is look at the first page of this forum to see the consensus opinion of Flowers 6 months ago vs. now, or the consensus opinion of Beckham a few years ago vs. now and you see right away just how difficult it is to build with prospects. Don't get me wrong, we need some, but payroll space for proven players and deals for proven players on nice contracts supplemented by a young core which in our case is pretty well established IMO is a much better way to go abotu planning for the future.

 

And besides, the Dodgers would probably laugh at that deal & tell us to f*** off if we proposed it.

[Jake]

Yeah, there are no more players to buy. The savings at a certain point are kind of irrelevant.

[GreenSox]

Alexei + Crain + Keppinger + Dunn for Dee Gordon + Juan Uribe

That would make the Todd Ritchie trade look ingenious. I say that in consideration that I think the prime purpose of our firesale would be to maximize the young talent added to this roster, versus helping JR's wallet.

Edited June 26, 2013 by GreenSox