Buddy Bell watching Johnson start

[Eminor3rd]

You are thinking with a logical baseball brain. We are talking about the Tigers who paid more than they need to for Fielder. BTW these type of deals happen in pro sports all of the time.

 

Not when there's a better option available. Again, why overpay for Reed when you can pay less for Crain? If the Tigers want nothing but NOW, they ar ebetter off with Crain.

[southsider2k5]

Not when there's a better option available. Again, why overpay for Reed when you can pay less for Crain? If the Tigers want nothing but NOW, they ar ebetter off with Crain.

 

Is Crain a better option? This is a guy who has never been a closer. Great set up guys don't always make great closers.

[Eminor3rd]

Is Crain a better option? This is a guy who has never been a closer. Great set up guys don't always make great closers.

 

Reed isn't exactly a great closer either. He's a decent closer with upside. Also, if they don't believe in Crain, they can still pay less for Papelbon by absorbing the contract.

[harfman77]

You are thinking with a logical baseball brain. We are talking about the Tigers who paid more than they need to for Fielder. BTW these type of deals happen in pro sports all of the time.

 

I agree, but they tend to happen less in baseball and usually not on this scale. Usually it is something a 3 month rental for a low level prospect (Liriano for Escobar), not really multi-year impact players changing hands. If its the only deal they can get, I am sure they probably will consider it pretty hard, but if they can make a deal elsewhere that will be good enough, they will take that over the any deal from the White Sox.

[caulfield12]

I agree, but they tend to happen less in baseball and usually not on this scale. Usually it is something a 3 month rental for a low level prospect (Liriano for Escobar), not really multi-year impact players changing hands. If its the only deal they can get, I am sure they probably will consider it pretty hard, but if they can make a deal elsewhere that will be good enough, they will take that over the any deal from the White Sox.

 

And Pedro Hernandez, who they just sent down again.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Oh, and those saying they're OK with Garcia for Reed, GTFO. At least when Joe Crede came up and the Sox thought they ahd their 3Bman of the future, he had put up great minor league numbers and won MVPs in the leagues he came up in. Avisail Garcia doesn't walk and hits for mediocre power. It's like Carlos Gomez, except without the speed, which might be nice in like 2017 or so, but not right now or the near future.

Me.

 

And he's clearly a finished product, isn't he wite?

 

If our scouts like him then you do the deal if it is out there.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I agree, but they tend to happen less in baseball and usually not on this scale. Usually it is something a 3 month rental for a low level prospect (Liriano for Escobar), not really multi-year impact players changing hands. If its the only deal they can get, I am sure they probably will consider it pretty hard, but if they can make a deal elsewhere that will be good enough, they will take that over the any deal from the White Sox.

On July 20th Mike Illitch will turn 84. Question, do you think he gives one single s*** about what some unproven minor league is going to do 2-3 years from now? Obviously he doesn't want to set his organization back, but he wants a ring & he can't just wait around forever.

[witesoxfan]

Me.

 

And he's clearly a finished product, isn't he wite?

 

If our scouts like him then you do the deal if it is out there.

 

I can't stand Avisail Garcia. He is a slap hitting, non-disciplined, not-as-athletically gifted as many believe prospect. He doesn't take walks, he strikes out at a decent clip, doesn't hit for a lot of power, and doesn't run a whole lot. He's probably, in a very good year, a 3.5-4.0 player, and normally a 2.0 player. I don't trade my player (regardless of his position or title), who is already a 2.0 WAR type player and under team control for 4 more years, straight up for someone like that. I have no problem with him as the centerpiece of a deal, but you need more for him.

 

I may overvalue Addison Reed, but you are quite evidently undervaluing him and what a good reliever can actually bring to a bullpen and a team, and you are doing so by a lot.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I believe you can bowl the Tigers over. You can't give them a deal on paper that is equal roughly with another team in another league & expect them to do a deal within the division.

 

But if you give them Reed, Crain + Thornton and take back Coke, Alburquerque who are struggling & ask they pay the difference in top prospects, you're potentially bowling them over.

 

Reed alone should be worth a very nice prospect or high quality young MLBer. Crain's value (let's not get carried away) should be a pretty decent prospect further away, but nothing extraordinary. Thornton's value should be a little lesser than that mainly because he's left-handed. Offer them that deal & you potentially offer to clear their way to a championship.

 

Huge risk on both sides. But Illitch is ready to be ballsy & if he's game we should be ballsy too.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I can't stand Avisail Garcia. He is a slap hitting, non-disciplined, not-as-athletically gifted as many believe prospect. He doesn't take walks, he strikes out at a decent clip, doesn't hit for a lot of power, and doesn't run a whole lot. He's probably, in a very good year, a 3.5-4.0 player, and normally a 2.0 player. I don't trade my player (regardless of his position or title), who is already a 2.0 WAR type player and under team control for 4 more years, straight up for someone like that. I have no problem with him as the centerpiece of a deal, but you need more for him.

 

I may overvalue Addison Reed, but you are quite evidently undervaluing him and what a good reliever can actually bring to a bullpen and a team, and you are doing so by a lot.

Yeah okay wahtever, I like him you don't. We don't matter, our scouts do. If they think he's a potential difference maker & the deal is out there then they should do it. If they don't and the deal is out there then they shouldn't.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

On July 20th Mike Illitch will turn 84. Question, do you think he gives one single s*** about what some unproven minor league is going to do 2-3 years from now? Obviously he doesn't want to set his organization back, but he wants a ring & he can't just wait around forever.

 

Then he gets Papelbon and pays money to give up less talent. They aren't trading Castellanos for Reed. It's a stupid decision and there are better options, even if they are going to be reckless as you assume. Castellanos for Reed wouldn't even hold up in an ESPN discussion, there's just no argument for it.

[Balta1701]

Then he gets Papelbon and pays money to give up less talent. They aren't trading Castellanos for Reed. It's a stupid decision and there are better options, even if they are going to be reckless as you assume. Castellanos for Reed wouldn't even hold up in an ESPN discussion, there's just no argument for it.

Then he can be happy paying Papelbon $13 million a year for the next 2 years and trying to figure out how to have his option year not kick in. At some point they will care about how much money they are losing and that will be good for us. Miguel Cabrera's contract comes up for renewal right in the middle of that.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Then he gets Papelbon and pays money to give up less talent. They aren't trading Castellanos for Reed. It's a stupid decision and there are better options, even if they are going to be reckless as you assume. Castellanos for Reed wouldn't even hold up in an ESPN discussion, there's just no argument for it.

Jimminy Christmas CAN YOU READ?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/detroit_tigers/index.html

 

Other teams say the Tigers are willing to surrender top prospects Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia if necessary. The team is focused on finding a closer.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Then he can be happy paying Papelbon $13 million a year for the next 2 years and trying to figure out how to have his option year not kick in. At some point they will care about how much money they are losing and that will be good for us. Miguel Cabrera's contract comes up for renewal right in the middle of that.

Yeah, Papelbon is how much better than Reed on paper? And how much more expensive?

 

I bet if they had Casper Wells as a prospect now Eminor3D would be like "You can't get Casper Wells he's so good erereerer" when in fact he is a perfect example of WHY a team - any team - would prefer to take a potential risk on an unproven player's future rather than a very certain guaranteed contractual obligation.

 

The Tigers seem to have dealt many of their best prospects in recent years. OMG Jacob Turner, OMG Cameron Maybin, Jair Jurrjens, Gorkys, Miller, etc.

 

Jerksticks & others in this thread, wite included re: disliking Garcia, have very points about the risk of trading a proven young player for someone who hasn't done anything yet at the MLB level. My whole point is that you can't acquire the amount of talent you need without taking risks, and risking a young closer in hopes of a big return is the type of risk you should be prepared to take if you are Hahn. Sale OTOH is not a risk you should be prepared to take.

[Balta1701]

Yeah, Papelbon is how much better than Reed on paper? And how much more expensive?

Reed has 1.2 fWAR this season, Papelbon has 0.2. Papelbon is paid $13 million a year this year and for the next 2 years, Reed is paid $600k.

 

Therefore, Papelbon is -1 wins better than Reed this year and $12.4 million a year more expensive.

[witesoxfan]

And this is all still assuming the Tigers would want to trade Castellanos or (ugh) Garcia to the Sox to begin with. They may very well not feel apt to do such a thing and get their asses kicked by said player for the next 6 years.

[Jerksticks]

Reed has 1.2 fWAR this season, Papelbon has 0.2. Papelbon is paid $13 million a year this year and for the next 2 years, Reed is paid $600k.

 

Therefore, Papelbon is -1 wins better than Reed this year and $12.4 million a year more expensive.

 

Excellent example IMO.

 

I think we should compile the list of for sure sellers and their possible closers for fun. I think the following teams will be sellers in a few weeks:

 

AL East: None.

AL Central: All 4.

AL West: Mariners, Astros, probably Angels

NL East: Marlins, Mets. Phillies are in it so I say no

NL Central: Brewers, cubs.

NL West: None

 

So I see 10-12 teams that would sell relief players. Maybe we could each take a team and analyze their bullpens and actually see where Crain and Reed rank.

 

Lets take a quick look at the cubs. Off the top of my head, now that they DFA'd CM, Kevin Gregg and James Russell are probably the nicest pieces. Whoopteedo!

 

BREAKING NEWS:

"Tigers fans construct statue of Owner ILitch in response to news of Kevin Gregg acquisition for playoff run."

 

[Eminor3rd]

Jimminy Christmas CAN YOU READ?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/detroit_tigers/index.html

 

Other teams say the Tigers are willing to surrender top prospects Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia if necessary. The team is focused on finding a closer.

 

I like that, it's easier to read when it's so big. I'll do you the same favor: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/stark-on-1.html

 

The Phillies are talking to the Red Sox and Tigers about closer Jonathan Papelbon right now, one exec tells Stark, even if they say otherwise.

[The Ultimate Champion]

And this is all still assuming the Tigers would want to trade Castellanos or (ugh) Garcia to the Sox to begin with. They may very well not feel apt to do such a thing and get their asses kicked by said player for the next 6 years.

We should put a deal out there that our scouts & FO would love. If the Tigers bite, yippie! Although if we get back a prospect or several of them, and they bust, we could get hurt. Not a sure thing we'd come out ahead there.

 

But if the Tigers say "thanks but no thanks, too risky for us" then at least we tried. And we should try.

 

There are a lot of signs out there that they'd make another big move, and if they do it's almost certainly going to involve a closer.

 

And I agree with the Jerkmeister, I doubt they're salivating over the idea of Kevin Gregg. Ooooooh, Kevin Gregggg yeeeeeeeah. Maybe he's depth, if anything.

[The Ultimate Champion]

At what point did I ever dispute that the Tigers were thinking about Papelbon?

 

And at what point do you read the responses of the people you are arguing with before continuing the conversation?

[caulfield12]

Excellent example IMO.

 

I think we should compile the list of for sure sellers and their possible closers for fun. I think the following teams will be sellers in a few weeks:

 

AL East: None.

AL Central: All 4.

AL West: Mariners, Astros, probably Angels

NL East: Marlins, Mets. Phillies are in it so I say no

NL Central: Brewers, cubs.

NL West: None

 

So I see 10-12 teams that would sell relief players. Maybe we could each take a team and analyze their bullpens and actually see where Crain and Reed rank.

 

Lets take a quick look at the cubs. Off the top of my head, now that they DFA'd CM, Kevin Gregg and James Russell are probably the nicest pieces. Whoopteedo!

 

BREAKING NEWS:

"Tigers fans construct statue of Owner ILitch in response to news of Kevin Gregg acquisition for playoff run."

 

 

 

1) Perkins, Glenn (most familiar with AL Central, LH, so that might be a minus to some in match-ups, plus dealing with a team in the division again, like the Delmon Young move, or Liriano to the White Sox)

 

2) Steve Cishek/Addison Reed

 

Steve Cishek rhp

1 year/$0.505M (2013)

 

• 1 year/$0.505M (2013)
  • re-signed by Miami 2/19/13
• 1 year/$0.48M (2012)
  • re-signed by Miami 3/2/12
• 1 year (2011)
  • re-signed by Florida 3/1/11
• 1 year (2010)
  • contract purchased by Florida 9/20/10
• drafted by Florida 2007 (5-166) (Carson-Newman College)
• ML service: 1.143
• 4) Papelbon (based on contract ugliness)

   

  5) Betancourt (based on the fact there's no way an AL team like the Tigers would dare risk him as closer)

The market for closers could focus on Glen Perkins and Steve Cishek if Jonathan Papelbon and Rafael Betancourt are unavailable, tweets MLB Network analyst Peter Gammons. Teams like the Tigers and Red Sox are potentially on the hunt for late-inning help, but Gammons says to expect a high price on Perkins and Cishek.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com took a look at Boston's closer situation today. GM Ben Cherington did not rule out the possibility of dealing for late-inning help, but also said that the club had internal options.

Buyers should not expect Papelbon to be available, Gammons further tweets. He cites an unnamed GM as saying that the Phillies are unlikely to deal their closer or star pitcher Cliff Lee given "their pending TV deal."

Edited June 26, 2013 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

At what point did I ever dispute that the Tigers were thinking about Papelbon?

 

And at what point do you read the responses of the people you are arguing with before continuing the conversation?

 

Answer #1: I did not put those words in your mouth. This is what I'm trying to say, spelled out as clearly as possible:

 

- MLBTR says the Tigers are willing to give up Cast/Garcia for a closer IF NECESSARY

- You suggest there is a real possibility that the Tigers would want to trade one of those for Reed, becuase he is, in fact, a closer

- I say that they would never do that, because that would be an overpay, and there exist several cheaper options on the market, such as Jesse Crain or Jonathan Papelbon, the latter with which they have actually been connected by at least one reporter

- Further, such intradivisional swaps of controllable talent are extremely uncommon, perhaps virtually unprecedented, because of the long-term risk each team takes by given their closest rivals weapons that may haunt them for years to come. Whether you think this is dumb or not, it is fact.

 

If you were to not agree with me, I would expect you would do so by making an argument that overpaying for Reed somehow makes more sense than the cheaper alternatives that are currently better pitchers in the short term.

 

To clarify further, I would LOVE to trade Reed for Castellanos, because we would clearly win that trade. However, there's no chance of it happening so long as Dombrowski is still mentally fit for his job.

 

Answer #2: All the words.

Edited June 26, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[harfman77]

Answer #1: I did not put those words in your mouth. This is what I'm trying to say, spelled out as clearly as possible:

 

- MLBTR says the Tigers are willing to give up Cast/Garcia for a closer IF NECESSARY

- You suggest there is a real possibility that the Tigers would want to trade one of those for Reed, becuase he is, in fact, a closer

- I say that they would never do that, because that would be an overpay, and there exist several cheaper options on the market, such as Jesse Crain or Jonathan Papelbon, the latter with which they have actually been connected by at least one reporter

- Further, such intradivisional swaps of controllable talent are extremely uncommon, perhaps virtually unprecedented, because of the long-term risk each team takes by given their closest rivals weapons that may haunt them for years to come. Whether you think this is dumb or not, it is fact.

 

If you were to not agree with me, I would expect you would do so by making an argument that overpaying for Reed somehow makes more sense than the cheaper alternatives that are currently better pitchers in the short term.

 

To clarify further, I would LOVE to trade Reed for Castellanos, because we would clearly win that trade. However, there's no chance of it happening so long as Dombrowski is still mentally fit for his job.

 

Answer #2: All the words.

 

I think the Tigers are probably talking to the Phillies about a Castellanos for Papelbon deal with the Phillies picking up a large share of the money owed to Papelbon.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

Answer #1: I did not put those words in your mouth. This is what I'm trying to say, spelled out as clearly as possible:

 

- MLBTR says the Tigers are willing to give up Cast/Garcia for a closer IF NECESSARY

- You suggest there is a real possibility that the Tigers would want to trade one of those for Reed, becuase he is, in fact, a closer

- I say that they would never do that, because that would be an overpay, and there exist several cheaper options on the market, such as Jesse Crain or Jonathan Papelbon, the latter with which they have actually been connected by at least one reporter

- Further, such intradivisional swaps of controllable talent are extremely uncommon, perhaps virtually unprecedented, because of the long-term risk each team takes by given their closest rivals weapons that may haunt them for years to come. Whether you think this is dumb or not, it is fact.

 

If you were to not agree with me, I would expect you would do so by making an argument that overpaying for Reed somehow makes more sense than the cheaper alternatives that are currently better pitchers in the short term.

 

To clarify further, I would LOVE to trade Reed for Castellanos, because we would clearly win that trade. However, there's no chance of it happening so long as Dombrowski is still mentally fit for his job.

 

Answer #2: All the words.

Let's just tackle the most glaring issue here: your view of Castellanos as a prospect & your idea of his value.

 

What is this based on?

 

Are you a professional scout?

 

Do you have any real reason, aside from a few snippets of scouting video you may have seen, or the "general consensus" among baseball writers, which you have read, and which almost always are a composite of several different opinions over different periods of time, to personally believe that Nick Castellanos should be viewed as a player who is so valuable, and enough of a sure thing, that he should even be viewed as equal to Addison Reed, who is a proven MLB closer? Just an equal now?

 

Because personally all I see is another highly rated prospect who is going to have to come to the big leagues and prove his worth. Unless you have some incredible scouting knowledge which I do not have, and which I doubt anyone here has, you really have no reason to believe that a Reed for Castellanos deal benefits ANYONE at the moment other than the Tigers, because they are getting a proven player.

 

Every single year around the deadline it is the same general conversation. OMG this prospect is so great, yadda yadda yadda, and most of them fall off. It's always risky trading for them, but unfortunately the Sox are so bad right now that they pretty much have to. Unless you have a crystal ball or a really good deck of magical talking tarot cards, you DO NOT have any clue what kind of contributions Nick Castellanos is ever going to make at the MLB level.

 

-----

 

And as for the rest of your post, it all relates to your own personal reasoning for believing Castellanos is so special. You're saying Castellanos is overpaying? What are you basing that on? If Castellanos is out there on the block for a closer - and there is a report that he is, for the right deal if necessary - then our people are going to have their own very real opinions on his abilities as a player & the likelihood of his success at the MLB level. And none of those opinions are going to come from someone else's blog either. If the Sox believe that one of the Tigers prospects out there may be available, and this player might be a real difference maker, then they should take a shot. Because they have to take risks, because they need the talent, because they don't have the farm system, because they don't have many valuable pieces to trade, and because a starting pitcher or a starting position player who is very good is worth more than a closer.

 

Lastly, no matter where you get your information, absolutely NO ONE knows more about Nick Castellanos than the people in the Tigers organization, period. ***IF*** the Tigers people are making him available AT ALL, then it means that they themselves have questions. Why do they have those questions?

[witesoxfan]

I honestly think Castellanos is perfect value for Reed, though in a vacuum I would try to acquire another low level prospect as well. The problem is that I don't think the Tigers need a young, stud closer in Reed so badly that they feel the need to trade away their best prospect and arguably a top 20 prospect in the game to a rival.

 

I mean, this seems like you are going to an extreme in petitioning and debating the merits of this deal when, really, there's probably a 1 in 1,000,000 chance this deal comes to fruition.