NBA Thread 2013-2014

[Boogua]

But not going to college at all definitely didn't hurt LeBron or Tracy McGrady or Kobe Bryant, and sticking around 1 year didn't seem to hurt Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwyane Wade. Meanwhile, Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich both played 4 years at Kansas, so talent evaluators should have had them pegged perfectly, yet neither has been much more than a bit player throughout their careers.

Do you really want to go through all the highly drafted high schoolers? Those guys you mentioned aren't all that common.

 

Wade was in college for 3 years (played 2).

 

Hinrich and Collison were both pegged fine.

[ZoomSlowik]

Some of them are. Some are riding pine, getting limited minutes and once the NBA season starts, not getting much practice time in.

 

Sticking around a couple years or more didn't hurt Hakeem or Jordan or Magic or Bird. I don't think they would have been much better had they turned pro after they were freshman.

 

Obviously this increases the chances of an NBA team not making a mistake, and that is what is all about, but there are a ton of underclassmen who make themselves eligible for the draft that never get drafted. This could ultimately help the college game as well. It will cost some players some money, but if they can play, they will eventually get paid.

 

That's basically my point, I don't think how long you stayed is anywhere near the top variable in determining a guy's effectiveness. I don't think those guys staying hurt them, and I don't think Lebron, Kobe, Durant, Melo, ect would have had better careers if they stayed.

 

There will be some guys that aren't truly ready and will flame out. There are also some guys that will get hurt/get exposed/lose their eligibility if they have to stick around. I don't see this as some major thing the NBA should be pushing.

[southsider2k5]

Eh. Most guys are just never going to be good enough. If you take out the guy drafted on "potential" you replace him with a guy who doesn't have the tools necessary to be a good/great NBA player anyways. There are only a certain amount of guys with the elite talent needed to be stars in the league and just looking at drafts on year to year basis demonstrates that giving teams more years to evaluate players doesn't really help them with talent evaluations.

 

You push the Tyrus Thomas's and Kwame Brown's of the world down the draft board, and push the Jimmy Butler's and Taj Gibson's up it. It gets the guys who will be solid, but not spectacular NBA players into better positions, while exposing the players who while they might have potential, but are never going to realize it. Those are the differences that are being talked about here.

[whitesoxfan99]

Do you really want to go through all the highly drafted high schoolers? Those guys you mentioned aren't all that common.

 

Wade was in college for 3 years (played 2).

 

Hinrich and Collison were both pegged fine.

 

Go for it. The high school kids had a very high success rate in comparison to where they were taken.

[Jake]

The most compelling argument regards injuries, but honestly it is far rarer for an NBA player to have their career derailed prematurely by injuries than in other sports where nobody questions more restrictive processes.

[ZoomSlowik]

Do you really want to go through all the highly drafted high schoolers? Those guys you mentioned aren't all that common.

 

Wade was in college for 3 years (played 2).

 

Hinrich and Collison were both pegged fine.

 

The history of the guys drafted out of high school aren't that bad. Here's a list of every player drafted out of high school.

 

The vast majority of the drafted high schoolers stuck in the NBA. I only see 8 guys out of 42 that haven't stuck around longer than 4 years. That's a pretty damn good rate.

[witesoxfan]

Do you really want to go through all the highly drafted high schoolers? Those guys you mentioned aren't all that common.

 

Wade was in college for 3 years (played 2).

 

Hinrich and Collison were both pegged fine.

 

So basically the good players will be good, the bad players will be bad, executives will make mistakes, and it doesn't matter how long these kids are in school. That seems to be the gist I'm getting from all of this. Is that far off?

[ZoomSlowik]

You push the Tyrus Thomas's and Kwame Brown's of the world down the draft board, and push the Jimmy Butler's and Taj Gibson's up it. It gets the guys who will be solid, but not spectacular NBA players into better positions, while exposing the players who while they might have potential, but are never going to realize it. Those are the differences that are being talked about here.

 

Tyrus Thomas wasn't a one-and-done player, so the rule wouldn't have affected him.

 

We also don't know what Brown would have done in college. Maybe he dominates and still goes high. Andre Drummond didn't even play that well and he was still a top-10 pick.

 

And again, you're assuming that the right people will get picked early when the entirety of NBA history suggests they won't. I've thrown around probably a dozen upperclassmen that sucked in this list that went early in the draft.

 

Teams are still going to pick the guys that they think have the highest potential whether there is an age limit or not. Doug McDermott is not going to go #1 with this rule change.

[Boogua]

Go for it. The high school kids had a very high success rate in comparison to where they were taken.

Just off the top of my head: Kwame Brown, Darius Miles, Eddy Curry, Martell Webster, Sebastian Telfair, Shaun Livingston...

[whitesoxfan99]

The history of the guys drafted out of high school aren't that bad. Here's a list of every player drafted out of high school.

 

The vast majority of the drafted high schoolers stuck in the NBA. I only see 8 guys out of 42 that haven't stuck around longer than 4 years. That's a pretty damn good rate.

 

And you have very few busts in comparison to where they were taken and who went after them either. The 2001 draft gave the straight to NBA kids a bad rap and it isn't like the non-European draft picks set the world on fire that year.

[Boogua]

So basically the good players will be good, the bad players will be bad, executives will make mistakes, and it doesn't matter how long these kids are in school. That seems to be the gist I'm getting from all of this. Is that far off?

People are disagreeing with this?

 

Executives will make mistakes, but more evidence can help them limit their mistakes.

[southsider2k5]

Tyrus Thomas wasn't a one-and-done player, so the rule wouldn't have affected him.

 

We also don't know what Brown would have done in college. Maybe he dominates and still goes high. Andre Drummond didn't even play that well and he was still a top-10 pick.

 

And again, you're assuming that the right people will get picked early when the entirety of NBA history suggests they won't. I've thrown around probably a dozen upperclassmen that sucked in this list that went early in the draft.

 

Teams are still going to pick the guys that they think have the highest potential whether there is an age limit or not. Doug McDermott is not going to go #1 with this rule change.

 

I am not assuming anything. I said it will improve the process, not perfect it. Every year you get to observe a player is another year to give you a better picture of the player. You get another year of physical maturity, of mental maturity, of basketball IQ, etc. If you pushed it to three or four years, it would improve even more.

 

It is the same thing in baseball where the high school draftees are way bigger questions than the college kids. It doesn't mean the college kids projections are perfect, it just means they are better, because you have more information to analyze.

[southsider2k5]

People are disagreeing with this?

 

Executives will make mistakes, but more evidence can help them limit their mistakes.

 

Exactly.

[whitesoxfan99]

Just off the top of my head: Kwame Brown, Darius Miles, Eddy Curry, Martell Webster, Sebastian Telfair, Shaun Livingston...

 

Eddy Curry made 70 million dollars and had a year in the NBA where he averaged 19.5 points per game while shooting 58% from the field. If you are including him as a bust than I can make an absolutely absurd list of juniors and seniors who were taken in the top 10 who had way worse careers. He was lazy but that wouldn't have changed at all had he gone to DePaul for a year or 2 and dominated crappy competition based on being bigger and stronger than everyone.

Edited March 25, 2014 by whitesoxfan99

[Boogua]

Eddy Curry made 70 million dollars and had a year in the NBA where he averaged 19.5 points per game while shooting 58% from the field. If you are including him as a bust than I can make an absolutely absurd list of juniors and seniors who were taken in the top 10 who had way worse careers. He was lazy but that wouldn't have changed at all had he gone to DePaul for a year or 2 and dominated crappy competition based on being bigger and stronger than everyone.

 

Meh, he was a top 5 pick and he never even scratched the surface of his potential. I'll call him a bust and I don't really care how much he made. Congrats to him though.

[ZoomSlowik]

I am not assuming anything. I said it will improve the process, not perfect it. Every year you get to observe a player is another year to give you a better picture of the player. You get another year of physical maturity, of mental maturity, of basketball IQ, etc. If you pushed it to three or four years, it would improve even more.

 

It is the same thing in baseball where the high school draftees are way bigger questions than the college kids. It doesn't mean the college kids projections are perfect, it just means they are better, because you have more information to analyze.

 

This argument is silly. Executives make terrible decisions even when they've seen guys play In the NBA. Kwame Brown was such a bust, yet he's still made over $80 million in the NBA. He's still collecting checks right now. If we wait until NBA executives get enough info to make the right decision more often than not, the players will be collecting retirement benefits before they enter the draft.

[witesoxfan]

People are disagreeing with this?

 

Executives will make mistakes, but more evidence can help them limit their mistakes.

 

I just don't believe this is fair to the elite talent. You are penalizing them because executives can't figure it out, and you may see injuries occur as a result of that which damage stock. It should be up to the player. If he feels he can improve his stock (Blake Griffin, Jared Sullinger, you name it) or he wants to stay in school (Marcus Smart), let him go. If not, let him go to the NBA - you can mention Thabeet and, say, Tobias Harris on this. Do you really think Thabeet would have gotten better with another year in school as opposed to the pros? Or do you think he would have played any worse? I bet he's still a top 5 draft pick the following season.

 

19 and one year removed from high school graduation seems perfect. You have tape of them in high school and a year of tape in college, plus the scouting combine and personal workouts too.

[Boogua]

So I'm confused. What's the downside of this again? That executives will still draft poorly? I can see the downside for the player wanting to be leave early, but for the NBA?

[whitesoxfan99]

Meh, he was a top 5 pick and he never even scratched the surface of his potential. I'll call him a bust and I don't really care how much he made. Congrats to him though.

 

I mean I guess we could have taken guys like:

 

Marcus Fizer, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Stromile Swift, Shelden Williams, Thabeet, Morrison, Wesley Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, and Thomas Robinson (don't care that he is only in his second year). And that doesn't even include really mediocre players like Jeff Green and Raymond Felton who all were in college for at least 2 years and were drafted in the top 5 since just 2000.

Edited March 25, 2014 by whitesoxfan99

[Boogua]

I mean I guess we could have taken guys like:

 

Marcus Fizer, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, Stromile Swift, Shelden Williams, Thabeet, Morrison, Wesley Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, and Thomas Robinson (don't care that he is only in his second year). And that doesn't even include really mediocre players like Jeff Green and Raymond Felton who all were in college for at least 2 years and were drafted in the top 5 since just 2000.

Yes. Lots of busts.

 

Can someone please explain what the downside is for the NBA here?

[ZoomSlowik]

So I'm confused. What's the downside of this again? That executives will still draft poorly? I can see the downside for the player wanting to be leave early, but for the NBA?

 

You're waiting an extra year to get the next studs for no good reason. It lets no-talent bums take up a spot at the end of the bench instead of replacing them with someone with potential that excites the fans. It's going to kill the quality of the draft for a few years until the talent pool normalizes, and you're likely going to flood the market with even more of those dreaded guys that "aren't ready" the draft before it's announced. And it obviously punishes incoming players with fairly questionable value returned to the NBA.

Edited March 25, 2014 by ZoomSlowik

[whitesoxfan99]

Yes. Lots of busts.

 

Can someone please explain what the downside is for the NBA here?

 

No downside other than keeping stud talents like LeBron or Durant out of the league for a year for no reason and there is limited to no upside to doing this. It basically just f***s the players without really providing a real benefit to the NBA.

[bmags]

Rather than adding another rule to safeguard NBA owners from running their franchise into the ground, as a fan I'd prefer Adam Silver take on the derelict, terrible owners out of the league. Maybe if more teams were run like San Antonio we wouldn't think there was a talent drop off.

 

No league has more rules to prevent owner incompetence than the NBA, and the number of incompetent owners just seems way way too high.

[ZoomSlowik]

Actually, I forgot the biggest downside to this rule change: it has to be collectively bargained. The Player's Union is going to extract something it wants from the owners because of this.

[whitesoxfan99]

Rather than adding another rule to safeguard NBA owners from running their franchise into the ground, as a fan I'd prefer Adam Silver take on the derelict, terrible owners out of the league. Maybe if more teams were run like San Antonio we wouldn't think there was a talent drop off.

 

No league has more rules to prevent owner incompetence than the NBA, and the number of incompetent owners just seems way way too high.

 

Yep, there are no quality of play issues in the Western Conference. They only exist in the East where you have a number of teams that have gutted their rosters on purpose to tank or have zero idea how to run a franchise (I'm looking at you Michael Jordan). Add in key injuries to two of the 4 East teams with legit talent (Chicago and Brooklyn) and you have a disaster of a conference.