NBA Thread 2013-2014

[ZoomSlowik]

Since nearly every top prospect is done for the year now, I'm going to go on a draft rant.

 

This class is really starting to remind me of 2008. There's plenty of potential, but nearly everyone has been a little disappointing this year. I guess the problem is we're expecting Durant-like performances given the pre-season hype, which is just way too high a bar to clear.

 

Anyways, here's how I would break it down. I'm going to leave out the foreigners because I can't really comment on them intelligently.

 

Top Tier- Wiggins, Parker and Embiid

 

These guys are all pretty close IMO, and I could see any of them being the best player in the draft or being a disappointment.

 

I think I'd still take Wiggins #1, but I wouldn't feel good about it. He has the tools and has shown flashes, but he's far from a finished product. He needs to build up his repertoire of moves so he doesn't have to use that spin move every time. Admittedly the plan to get him involved at Kansas seems to be "throw it to him on the wing and hope for the best." A heavy diet of pick and rolls and basket cuts would make it easier for him, and playing at a facer pace without the kind of junk defenses he faced today will also help.

 

I go back and forth on Jabari. Clearly he's going to score, but I'm worried about his efficiency and whether he'll do anything else. He leans on his jumper quite a bit, and a lot of his inside offense comes from post ups/rebounds where be bullies people. I'd like to see more rim attacks off the dribble if he's going to be a stud wing. His defense also seems like it's going to be an issue. All that said, I could easily see him cleaning up his shot selection on offense and being a difference maker.

 

Embiid would be right there at #1, but the back issues worry me a bit. Not a good sign that he's already dealing with that. That's not my only concern, but it's enough for me to lean towards the guys that can more easily step into a starting lineup. He has a ton of defensive potential, but his defensive awareness needs a lot of work. I'd also like to see him be a bit more physical and play through contact on offense. I don't think he can play 30 high quality minutes at the NBA level right now.

 

Tier 2- Randle, Smart and Gordon

 

Randle is my clear #4 (at least among Americans, no idea on Exum), but a slight step behind the other guys. He might actually be safer, but I think he'll be more solid than stellar. He's a great rebounder, but his scoring average has been dropping since early in the year. I think he's only averaging about 13 PPG since conference play started. I do like that he's driving more in recent games, but will he be able to consistently score in the post against guys on his athletic tier? I haven't seen him do that recently. Admittedly there are worse things than a 15-10 big, but he's not exactly an impact defender either.

 

I still worry about Smart's decision making and struggles with his shot, but I'll still take my chances on a point guard that has the potential to attack the rim and defend. If he's not going to improve his shot, he should at least stop taking five 3's a game.

 

Gordon is basically an upside pick. He's good for Youtube highlights and to a lesser extent defense, but his offense need a ton of work. I am worried that he seems to think he's a perimeter player though. He's a decent ball-handler, but if he's not dunking or rebounding, he's not useful on offense.

 

Tier 3- ?

 

I honestly don't know after that. There's a ton of guys I kinda like, but no one that blows me away. I think I'd probably take a shot on Vonleh, Harris, Hood and Harrell after that, with need determing which one. I don't think they'll be All-Stars, but I think they'll at least be useful. I kind of like Cauley-Stein as an energy/defense guy off the bench, though I'm not sure how much upside he has. I also strangely like Stauskas. Worst case he's a knockdown-shooter that can't defend, but he's shown some ability to make plays in the pick-and-roll.

 

I'm a little surprised I don't like more guys. Rock said a while ago that 2015 might be better, and while I didn't buy it at the time, I might now. Obviously the freshmen need to perform since they generally drive the class. There are several interesting bigs in that group (Okafor, Turner, Alexander, Lyles and Town to a slightly lesser extent), and it seems like Mudiay and Oubre have potential. Plus you never know if one or two guys from this group stay.

Edited March 24, 2014 by ZoomSlowik

[DBAHO]

Dante Exum's the real wild-card in that class right now.

 

Wiggins + Parker obviously didn't do much to improve their stock during March Madness.

 

For me, if I'm Orlando, and I had a choice b/w Parker and Exum, I'd actually go with Exum. Parker reminds me too much of a Melo / Derrick Williams 3/4 Tweener, who's not athletic enough at the 3 spot. Exum could cause real match-up problems at the 1 with his size.

 

I think the Lakers would love to pair Exum with Kobe as well potentially......

[Brian]

I could argue that Wiggins hasn't done much all season to improve his stock. I personally think the team that drafts #1 would be stupid to pass up Jabari. I think he's a match up nightmare in the NBA.

[RockRaines]

I'm not sure they had to improve their stock. The tournament is kind of meaningless in that sense anyway.

[Balta1701]

I'm not sure they had to improve their stock. The tournament is kind of meaningless in that sense anyway.

(To be fair though, I think DRose made himself the clear #1 during the tourney when Rose/Beasley was an open question going in. At least that's how I viewed it, and that's the last one I can think of where the tourney made an obvious difference).

[Dick Allen]

From Yahoo Sports:

 

Scout's take – "Teams don't want to draft another Greg Oden. Embiid will be No. 1 if there is no back issue. There is only one player in the draft that's a potential franchise player, and that's Embiid. It's a deep draft. When I say franchise player, there are only eight or 10 of those in the league. Embiid has the potential to be one."

 

Jerry West said this draft was overrated, and it appears this scout agrees.

Edited March 24, 2014 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

I think this year kind of taught us not go get caught up in the pre-conference play numbers. There was a lot of great offensive performances early in the year and that just dropped off like a brick as soon as conference play started.

[RockRaines]

From Yahoo Sports:

 

Scout's take – "Teams don't want to draft another Greg Oden. Embiid will be No. 1 if there is no back issue. There is only one player in the draft that's a potential franchise player, and that's Embiid. It's a deep draft. When I say franchise player, there are only eight or 10 of those in the league. Embiid has the potential to be one."

 

Jerry West said this draft was overrated, and it appears this scout agrees.

so teams dont want to draft a guy who has a freak knee injury? Must be a very good scout.

[ZoomSlowik]

Dante Exum's the real wild-card in that class right now.

 

Wiggins + Parker obviously didn't do much to improve their stock during March Madness.

 

For me, if I'm Orlando, and I had a choice b/w Parker and Exum, I'd actually go with Exum. Parker reminds me too much of a Melo / Derrick Williams 3/4 Tweener, who's not athletic enough at the 3 spot. Exum could cause real match-up problems at the 1 with his size.

 

I think the Lakers would love to pair Exum with Kobe as well potentially......

 

Yeah, I don't really know about Exum. He looks great in the few Youtube clips I've watched, but that can be misleading. I definitely think he benefits from people seeing him less so they don't see his warts (if I remember right his shot stinks and he plays out of control a lot). I think he'd make more sense for Orlando since they already have a somewhat similar guy to Parker in Harris and really need another ball-handler.

 

Parker does look like sort of a tweener, but I'd put him closer to Melo than the Williams/Bennett/Beasley flops. He's a better shooter than the first two with better scoring moves. I think he has similar talent to Beasley but isn't as big a slacker/headcase/pick your derrogatory term.

[bmags]

so teams dont want to draft a guy who has a freak knee injury? Must be a very good scout.

 

I have a hard time believing players like Embiid would drop too far even if he suddenly showed a stress fracture or something like that.

[ZoomSlowik]

I could argue that Wiggins hasn't done much all season to improve his stock. I personally think the team that drafts #1 would be stupid to pass up Jabari. I think he's a match up nightmare in the NBA.

 

I think it's possible, but I could also see him struggling to score against athletic 6'7" guys on the wing, and he's going to get obliterated if he has to defend 4's right now.

[RockRaines]

I have a hard time believing players like Embiid would drop too far even if he suddenly showed a stress fracture or something like that.

How easy is it to predict a degenerative injury like that anyway?

[Rowand44]

Jabari will be the ROY next year but long term give me Wiggins and Embiid over him. Wiggins might take a few years to develop but I still love his upside. I expect him to keep improving greatly like did over the course of this season.

[ILMOU]

Quite the turnaround for Brooklyn. They were reeling at 10-21 with BLopez going down having been their best player to that point. Closing fast on Bulls and likely Toronto to get the #3 seed.

 

Big credit due to Kidd, DWill and Truth to get it righted. Could make some noise.

 

[ptatc]

How easy is it to predict a degenerative injury like that anyway?

It depends on the injury. Certain ones like articular cartilage damage (konerko) it's almost certain degeneration will occur. The injury here is being reported as a stress fracture. These generally aren't degenerative.

 

[southsider2k5]

Sherron Shabazz ‏@SherronShabazz 6m

 

Gar Forman on @WaddleandSilvy said Derrick Rose will not play in the playoffs, he should play for team USA this summer.

[southsider2k5]

Looking at a couple of the NBA draft sites, neither has McGary or Glenn Robinson being taken in the 1st round, if they go pro. I have to imagine both are going back to school, but damn did both guy kill themselves by staying at UM.

[Brian]

Looking at a couple of the NBA draft sites, neither has McGary or Glenn Robinson being taken in the 1st round, if they go pro. I have to imagine both are going back to school, but damn did both guy kill themselves by staying at UM.

 

I doubt Mitch leaves but what do I know. Maybe GR3 can go to Europe and do something cuz he won't in NBA.

[southsider2k5]

I doubt Mitch leaves but what do I know. Maybe GR3 can go to Europe and do something cuz he won't in NBA.

 

He almost can't leave now. He has to come back and prove he can stay healthy for a season.

[southsider2k5]

Wow Paul George. I guess if I got stripped like that by Kirk Hinrich, I'd pretend I got fouled too.

[bmags]

Great game, great effort. Jo was eating hibberts lunch tonight

[DBAHO]

Yeah, I don't really know about Exum. He looks great in the few Youtube clips I've watched, but that can be misleading. I definitely think he benefits from people seeing him less so they don't see his warts (if I remember right his shot stinks and he plays out of control a lot). I think he'd make more sense for Orlando since they already have a somewhat similar guy to Parker in Harris and really need another ball-handler.

 

Parker does look like sort of a tweener, but I'd put him closer to Melo than the Williams/Bennett/Beasley flops. He's a better shooter than the first two with better scoring moves. I think he has similar talent to Beasley but isn't as big a slacker/headcase/pick your derrogatory term.

I've got no doubt that Parker is definitely the better prospect right now.

 

However the flaws that you've said with Exum are fixable. He reminds me so much of Shaun Livingston pre knee injury, and even now, Livingston is an All Defensive Candidate. Having someone with his size and talent who can handle the PG position, could be a real game changer for a team 3-4 years down the line IMO.

 

I worry about Parker in terms of how you build a team around him, and how to compensate for his defensive shortfalls. I think obviously watching Melo in Denver and New York has shown how important it is to have the right supporting cast around him, and people are probably going to ask the same question about Jabari a decade from now.

[RockRaines]

I doubt Mitch leaves but what do I know. Maybe GR3 can go to Europe and do something cuz he won't in NBA.

He can play on the same team as Laquinton Ross.

[Boogua]

It looks like Adam Silver wants to raise the age limit to 20. Smart call. The NBA product is pretty awful right now.

[ZoomSlowik]

It looks like Adam Silver wants to raise the age limit to 20. Smart call. The NBA product is pretty awful right now.

 

Meh. It's not going to make a major difference for most of the guys the rule will affect. I don't see Julius Randle or Jabari Parker gaining much against guys they outclass and facing a ton of zones and junk defenses for teams to try to close the talent gap. Plus it seems like nearly every top prospect that comes back stagnates and has their stock drop (Smart, Sullinger, Noah, Barnes, sorta Zeller before Charlotte reached for him off the top of my head), and if you get hurt like Noel or McGary you're in trouble.

 

We've seen plenty of young guys come in and be productive, and even a lot of the ones that didn't still had productive careers. I think getting the high schoolers out of the draft was good, but I don't see the pressing need to up it another year.