Your Realistic 2014 Lineup

[Dick Allen]

I don't see why Milwaukee would trade Carlos Gomez unless you gave them a ton more than is being mentioned.

[witesoxfan]

I don't see why Milwaukee would trade Carlos Gomez unless you gave them a ton more than is being mentioned.

 

Between the two of you and Balta, I am more apt to agree with you. Honestly, I think you can say that Gomez is a borderline superstar at this point and he really could still be getting better overall. If he is available at all, I think you are giving up a lot to get him.

[chw42]

If we are going to continue on with this "what pieces do you have that will play on the next winner," then I think the Sox have 3 starters on the roster right now - Semien, Garcia, and Garcia. Semien and Avisail will be the two bigger ones of that group, but I think Leury is going to be the shortstop on that team as a good defender, good enough bat.

 

At that point, I think you need to find 4 more pieces with at least 2 of those being very good players. My guess is that Abreu is priority #1 this offseason. He is the perfect fit for this team and they are in a very good position to sign him (and I think they will). McCann is probably #2, but I could see someone like Boston signing him, especially if they get knocked out this year. I'm not counting on him, but he would be a great fit too.

 

I also think they'll look to move one of Quintana or Santiago for a young piece. It was mentioned off-hand either here or somewhere else, but Carlos Gomez is a guy I could see the Sox having interest in too, especially with how badly the Brewers need pitching. You deal Santiago or Quintana, Trayce Thompson, and a couple other smaller prospects and you have a CF and 3 or 6-7 hitter. Then you can make a move for someone at 3B. I've suggested Sandoval on several occasions (deal Viciedo/De Aza and Beckham with the idea that the Giants then move Scutaro to 3B; for argument's sake, we'll say it's De Aza) so I'll stick with that even if it wouldn't work for now primarily because it's not the names but the ideas that matter at this point.

 

Without having dealt Ramirez, the lineup going into next year (and, as always, this is my personal take but not necessarily what it would actually be)

 

Semien - 2B

McCann - C

Gomez - CF

Abreu - 1B

Sandoval - 3B

Dunn - DH

Garcia - RF

Viciedo - LF

Ramirez - SS

 

Phegley/Flowers - C

Garcia - 2B/SS/3B/CF

Gillaspie - 1B/3B

Danks - LF/CF/RF

 

Legitimately, that team has a shot to compete and be very good in the Central. It also has a chance to struggle with on base percentage and be a very hit or miss offense. However, the defense should be good all around and there are back ups that are valuable defensive players too. Overall, I would expect that team to win 85 games with a lowside being about 75-78 wins and an upside being between 95-97 wins but the more important aspect of that offense is that you suddenly have pieces to build around throughout the lineup - the only hole you have going into 2015 is an opening at DH, and at that point I think you want to try and use it as a way to get guys days off. That's getting ahead of ourselves.

 

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This is one example I just spitballed. If you were actually in charge of the White Sox, there are several moves you can make to be competing by next season, let alone by 2016, without giving up valuable time-controlled minor leaguers (what little the Sox have anyways).

 

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(also, the idea of "buying" a B-prospect for $30 million is ridiculous and among the worst possible use of resources)

 

Hawk will have a heart attack from excitement.

 

I don't know if I see Gomez putting up the number's he's putting up this year in the future. His BABIP probably isn't sustainable, although he is hitting more line drives. Plus, there's the issue that Gomez doesn't walk. His defense is awesome, but at this point, I think we need an impact bat more than an impact defender.

Edited September 17, 2013 by chw42

[Eminor3rd]

For comparison though, Quintana is on his way to a 4 fWAR season and has 2 more years remaining where he's pre-arb. Carlos Gomez is paid $7 million next year whereas Quintana is paid $500k unless we extend him.

 

if 1 WAR = $6 million, then when you factor in the contracts Carlos Gomez right now is only worth ~1 WAR more than Quintana/$6 million more right now, and Quintana is younger and has every reason based on this season to think he can continue to improve next year.

 

Given all those things I'd take the slightly younger player, but then if you throw in the fact that there should be a major premium on cost-controlled, left-handed pitching, Quintana alone might well be an overpay for him.

 

Santiago I'd be more willing to consider because the Sox have jerked him around and blew a year of pre-arb time for him out of the bullpen these last 2 seasons.

 

But you must factor that we have pitching and desperately need hitting.

 

I don't like Gomez, but that's because I think he played over his head this year and won't reach this height again, not because I don't think his 2013 has been incredibly valuable. If I thought Gomez was for real, I'd give up Santiago + Thompson + a third piece without thinking twice. 27 year old 6-7WAR CF? Sign me up.

 

But is he really a +20 defender? Is anyone really a +20 defender? Do we really need another 25% K, 6% BB kind of guy? The .339 OBP is fine from him if he stays there, but the components don't add up and his history screams otherwise. Maybe he can sustain a .351 BABIP, but that would put him up there with the greatest of all-time. This looks a lot like his career year to me, and his batting line looks a lot like Alex Rios. Don't get me wrong, Rios' bat + elite CF defense is a helluva player, but it doesn't sit in the middle of the order for a contender, and it doesn't come with any upside, IMO.

 

I like the idea, just not the player.

[witesoxfan]

But you must factor that we have pitching and desperately need hitting.

 

I don't like Gomez, but that's because I think he played over his head this year and won't reach this height again, not because I don't think his 2013 has been incredibly valuable. If I thought Gomez was for real, I'd give up Santiago + Thompson + a third piece without thinking twice. 27 year old 6-7WAR CF? Sign me up.

 

But is he really a +20 defender? Is anyone really a +20 defender? Do we really need another 25% K, 6% BB kind of guy? The .339 OBP is fine from him if he stays there, but the components don't add up and his history screams otherwise. Maybe he can sustain a .351 BABIP, but that would put him up there with the greatest of all-time. This looks a lot like his career year to me, and his batting line looks a lot like Alex Rios. Don't get me wrong, Rios' bat + elite CF defense is a helluva player, but it doesn't sit in the middle of the order for a contender, and it doesn't come with any upside, IMO.

 

I like the idea, just not the player.

 

I like Gomez, and while I agree he's not a +20, I also think he's better than the +5 he showed last year. I think he's legitimately a +10-12 defender in CF, which is still incredibly valuable. I think the power is for real, I think he is about a 115 wRC+ offensively, and I still think there's room to grow.

 

The question is: do you want to pay a premium for a marginal upgrade offensively, or perhaps deal for someone like Bourjos while taking a hit offensively?

[southsider2k5]

McCann is 29 years old right now. He'll be 32 at the start of the 2016 season. I didn't realize guys suddenly fell off at 32 years of age.

 

I've got to be honest, if the Sox can get McCann for 4/$60M they should do it without hesitation. Even if he only gives you two years at catcher, I think that would be a good deal for us. We're talking about his age 30 to 33 seasons. I don't see his bat falling apart during that time-frame.

 

There is a pretty historical decline between 29 and 32, and then every year after that.

[Eminor3rd]

I like Gomez, and while I agree he's not a +20, I also think he's better than the +5 he showed last year. I think he's legitimately a +10-12 defender in CF, which is still incredibly valuable. I think the power is for real, I think he is about a 115 wRC+ offensively, and I still think there's room to grow.

 

The question is: do you want to pay a premium for a marginal upgrade offensively, or perhaps deal for someone like Bourjos while taking a hit offensively?

 

Yeah, I think that is the real question. Since we have no offense even in our corners, I feel like we need to save our bullets for a true impact bat, even if it's a lumbering first baseman. I'd swap busts for Bourjos and try to get a stick with Santiago.

 

Angels are supposedly going to try to deal Kendrick in the offseason, think they might want Beckham as a stopgap replacement?

[Eminor3rd]

Angels, like the Brewers, will be looking for pitching.

 

Indeed. I don't think I'd give them one of our starters for anything they have available. Maybe Bourjos + Cowart + Cron, but that sounds like a lot in current prospect dollars.

[Quin]

On trading for Gomez:

 

Depends what we get for Viciedo or De Aza.

 

But, I'd be ok with letting Hector go in such a deal, especially if we get a high pick that can let us get another good LHP in the pipeline.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Quinarvy

[witesoxfan]

Yeah, I think that is the real question. Since we have no offense even in our corners, I feel like we need to save our bullets for a true impact bat, even if it's a lumbering first baseman. I'd swap busts for Bourjos and try to get a stick with Santiago.

 

Angels are supposedly going to try to deal Kendrick in the offseason, think they might want Beckham as a stopgap replacement?

Assuming they were to get rid of Kendrick, I think they'd have interest in Beckham, but whether they'd give up Bourjos for him is something I'd question just due to cost and service time alone.

 

Trying to think of impact bats that could be available is a bit more difficult. Are we talking about impact bats like Jose Bautista or perhaps other smaller bats instead?

[Eminor3rd]

Assuming they were to get rid of Kendrick, I think they'd have interest in Beckham, but whether they'd give up Bourjos for him is something I'd question just due to cost and service time alone.

 

Trying to think of impact bats that could be available is a bit more difficult. Are we talking about impact bats like Jose Bautista or perhaps other smaller bats instead?

 

Unfortunately we're probably still talking prospects if we're considering moving Santiago/Quintana. I actually don't think the Brewers would even move Gomez for one of those two guys, but I agree the thought makes sense on paper.

[witesoxfan]

Unfortunately we're probably still talking prospects if we're considering moving Santiago/Quintana. I actually don't think the Brewers would even move Gomez for one of those two guys, but I agree the thought makes sense on paper.

 

And Bourjos wouldn't be a bad get, and he would really help solidify the outfield defense. You just hope that he can improve with the bat.

 

Another interesting case to consider is Alexei. I think Leury can be the SS of the future for the White Sox, but do you want him to start getting experience this year while also getting value, or do you really think you have an outside chance of competing and you want to keep Leury on the bench next year? Personally, I'm dealing Alexei (preferably to the Cardinals for one of those young pitchers), but that will be interesting to see the team's choice regarding that matter as well.

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm still liking taking a chance on Chase Headley even if it takes Santiago to get him. He's a gold glove 3rd basemen who if you discard his 1 really bad month still put up a .269/.361/.473(inflated by his .308/.400/.718 September so far.....763 ops if you discard Sept)....I know people will bring up how he only had 1 big year but if you look at his home/road splits he's put up an ops over .800 in 2011(.864), 2009(.803), and 2008(.831) on the road as well. So I think taking him out of Petco and putting him in the Cell will do him a lot of good....I'd like to get him for less than Santiago if possible but probably wouldn't hesitate to do it straight up.

[Jerksticks]

I'm still liking taking a chance on Chase Headley even if it takes Santiago to get him. He's a gold glove 3rd basemen who if you discard his 1 really bad month still put up a .269/.361/.473(inflated by his .308/.400/.718 September so far.....763 ops if you discard Sept)....I know people will bring up how he only had 1 big year but if you look at his home/road splits he's put up an ops over .800 in 2011(.864), 2009(.803), and 2008(.831) on the road as well. So I think taking him out of Petco and putting him in the Cell will do him a lot of good....I'd like to get him for less than Santiago if possible but probably wouldn't hesitate to do it straight up.

 

We only get one shot at this trading from our pitching strength to upgrade positional deficiency. I think we need to go after a younger player.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm still liking taking a chance on Chase Headley even if it takes Santiago to get him. He's a gold glove 3rd basemen who if you discard his 1 really bad month still put up a .269/.361/.473(inflated by his .308/.400/.718 September so far.....763 ops if you discard Sept)....I know people will bring up how he only had 1 big year but if you look at his home/road splits he's put up an ops over .800 in 2011(.864), 2009(.803), and 2008(.831) on the road as well. So I think taking him out of Petco and putting him in the Cell will do him a lot of good....I'd like to get him for less than Santiago if possible but probably wouldn't hesitate to do it straight up.

 

But he's 30 and a pending free agent next year.

[witesoxfan]

Those starters that have proven their capabilities as more than just a serviceable starting pitching are off limits for me in a proposed Headley trade. So is Erik Johnson. Rienzo is not.

 

I've said it otherwise, but Rienzo and Snodgress for Headley would be fine with me. That's about the most I could trade.

[southsider2k5]

Those starters that have proven their capabilities as more than just a serviceable starting pitching are off limits for me in a proposed Headley trade. So is Erik Johnson. Rienzo is not.

 

I've said it otherwise, but Rienzo and Snodgress for Headley would be fine with me. That's about the most I could trade.

 

I wonder if SD would even be willing to go the well of our minor league pitching again.

[witesoxfan]

I wonder if SD would even be willing to go the well of our minor league pitching again.

 

#1) Rienzo is a better prospect than any included in the Peavy deal, and Snodgress is a better wild card.

#2) The Padres knew what they were getting themselves into with that Peavy deal. They wanted salary cap relief and a few of the so-called "lottery tickets." That they got some production out of Clayton Richard is more than they could have asked for.

#3) Even if #2 weren't true, not dealing with a team because of a trade that didn't work out in the past is going to limit your avenues to improve your team, which in turn limits your ability to improve your team. They'll still trade with the White Sox.

#4) Most of this is just fun talk on a slow day because I think there is a 0.01% chance that the White Sox will trade for Chase Headley.

[2nd_city_saint787]

We only get one shot at this trading from our pitching strength to upgrade positional deficiency. I think we need to go after a younger player.

 

 

But he's 30 and a pending free agent next year.

 

 

i know you 2 either said no or haven't touched on Gomez but Headley is only 5 months older than Gomez...I'd get him and try to give him a 2 or 3 year extension before the season.

 

Those starters that have proven their capabilities as more than just a serviceable starting pitching are off limits for me in a proposed Headley trade. So is Erik Johnson. Rienzo is not.

 

I've said it otherwise, but Rienzo and Snodgress for Headley would be fine with me. That's about the most I could trade.

 

I wouldn't do it for Q but Santiago scares me a bit, I'm not sure he'll ever become an a efficient enough pitcher to garner not giving him up for a gold glove middle of the order bat....Like I said, I of course would like to get him for less but wouldn't hesitate to give up Hector.

 

Just my opinion on 3B.

[southsider2k5]

i know you 2 either said no or haven't touched on Gomez but Headley is only 5 months older than Gomez...I'd get him and try to give him a 2 or 3 year extension before the season.

 

 

 

I wouldn't do it for Q but Santiago scares me a bit, I'm not sure he'll ever become an a efficient enough pitcher to garner not giving him up for a gold glove middle of the order bat....Like I said, I of course would like to get him for less but wouldn't hesitate to give up Hector.

 

Just my opinion on 3B.

 

Outside of a few markets, a large part of a deal is the public perception of said deal. If the Padres give up one of their few "named" players they have to get a return they can sell to their fanbase. Hey look more White Sox pitching prospects, might invoke a bit of a backlash for an organization that is fading from importance quickly.

[LittleHurt05]

i know you 2 either said no or haven't touched on Gomez but Headley is only 5 months older than Gomez...I'd get him and try to give him a 2 or 3 year extension before the season.

 

 

 

I wouldn't do it for Q but Santiago scares me a bit, I'm not sure he'll ever become an a efficient enough pitcher to garner not giving him up for a gold glove middle of the order bat....Like I said, I of course would like to get him for less but wouldn't hesitate to give up Hector.

 

Just my opinion on 3B.

 

Why would Headley sign a 2 or 3 year extension? At age 30, it's his best time to strike it rich as a free agent. He is gonna hope to play well and sign a 5-7 year deal from the Yankees in the following offseason.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Why would Headley sign a 2 or 3 year extension? At age 30, it's his best time to strike it rich as a free agent. He is gonna hope to play well and sign a 5-7 year deal from the Yankees in the following offseason.

 

That's why I included the word "try" as I too am not sure he'd do that either, and thinking about it more, you're probably right.

 

I still like Headley though and if he hits FA next season I'd be all about signing him.

 

I guess for next year I'd be cool with giving Conor another chance. If you look at what he did against RHP the numbers he put up are similar to what Pablo put up.....

 

Pablo- .278/.334/.441 12 HRs

Conor- .274/.333/.430 12 HRs

 

And Conor was just a rookie. Pick up a platoon player and call it a day at 3B.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Pick up a platoon player and call it a day at 3B.

We already have that guy.

[2nd_city_saint787]

We already have that guy.

 

Semien? I don't want him to be a platoon player, he either starts up here or in AAA.

[Balta1701]

Semien? I don't want him to be a platoon player, he either starts up here or in AAA.

Keppinger. He's a righty, he's going to be paid whether we like it or not, he's a career .317/.361/ .465/.826 hitter against left-handed pitching.

 

This has been an awful season for him obviously for whatever reason, but he's a reasonable platoon partner for Gillaspie.

 

I'll say again I'm not opposed to a major upgrade at 3b if we can find one that's available, but for the money, Gillaspie and Keppinger on paper shouldn't be a bad platoon at 3b.

 

Of course, that again assumes that Keppinger isn't a nightmare next year at the plate, but since there's no reason to buy him out, may as well pencil that in.