Your Realistic 2014 Lineup

[greg775]

Fathom, if Gillaspie is our 3B next year, I predict 99 losses again. Got to get major leaguer regulars on the field.

[daggins]

Sizemore will be lucky to get 1yr/5 mil. His health is a total wildcard and he wasn't great the last time he was healthy.

 

Santiago is not good enough to get Trumbo+ . Lefties with control issues are pretty common and they still have money to blow.

[witesoxfan]

Fathom, if Gillaspie is our 3B next year, I predict 99 losses again. Got to get major leaguer regulars on the field.

 

I don't understand why you would seemingly pin this all on Gillaspie. Frankly, by fWAR, your boy Paul Konerko was the worst regular in the AL this year, the second worst player overall, and the third worst player in the majors at -1.8 fWAR. Can you understand why so many people want to move on?

 

If the Sox bring Konerko back as anything more than a platoon partner and player/coach, then that is a bigger indication to me that they are not serious about competing.

[witesoxfan]

Sizemore will be lucky to get 1yr/5 mil. His health is a total wildcard and he wasn't great the last time he was healthy.

 

Santiago is not good enough to get Trumbo+ . Lefties with control issues are pretty common and they still have money to blow.

 

If Sizemore gets anything more than a minor league contract, his agent will have succeeded greatly.

 

Trumbo is a free swinging, low OBP right handed slugger. He has the kind of potential to hit 40+ homers, but he could just as easily turn into Mark Reynolds too. Santiago, on the other hand, has put up good numbers 2 years in a row, including very good numbers this year. If the Angels declined that trade, then you walk away because you aren't dealing with a sane organization.

[Eminor3rd]

If Sizemore gets anything more than a minor league contract, his agent will have succeeded greatly.

 

Trumbo is a free swinging, low OBP right handed slugger. He has the kind of potential to hit 40+ homers, but he could just as easily turn into Mark Reynolds too. Santiago, on the other hand, has put up good numbers 2 years in a row, including very good numbers this year. If the Angels declined that trade, then you walk away because you aren't dealing with a sane organization.

 

Hector just put up a 1.5 WAR season, Trumbo just put up a 2.5 WAR season.

[witesoxfan]

Hector just put up a 1.5 WAR season, Trumbo just put up a 2.5 WAR season.

 

And that's with 11 games as a reliever in his first full year as a starting pitcher. I think you can extend that and make the assumption that, given 7-10 more starts this year, he'd have been around a 2.0 fWAR with the potential to be improve on those numbers. He's going to be 26 next year and is still under team control for 4 years.

 

Trumbo is a below average defender, is going to be 28 next year, is under team control for 3 years.

 

Frankly, I think Santiago for Trumbo would be pretty fair, all things considered.

[southsider2k5]

And that's with 11 games as a reliever in his first full year as a starting pitcher. I think you can extend that and make the assumption that, given 7-10 more starts this year, he'd have been around a 2.0 fWAR with the potential to be improve on those numbers. He's going to be 26 next year and is still under team control for 4 years.

 

Trumbo is a below average defender, is going to be 28 next year, is under team control for 3 years.

 

Frankly, I think Santiago for Trumbo would be pretty fair, all things considered.

 

It is the type of move I fully expect to see from the Sox this off season.

[Balta1701]

And that's with 11 games as a reliever in his first full year as a starting pitcher. I think you can extend that and make the assumption that, given 7-10 more starts this year, he'd have been around a 2.0 fWAR with the potential to be improve on those numbers. He's going to be 26 next year and is still under team control for 4 years.

 

Trumbo is a below average defender, is going to be 28 next year, is under team control for 3 years.

 

Frankly, I think Santiago for Trumbo would be pretty fair, all things considered.

I feel like you made a convincing case about why that would be a weak deal for the white sox, not a fair one.

[witesoxfan]

I feel like you made a convincing case about why that would be a weak deal for the white sox, not a fair one.

 

A 2.0 fWAR player for the next 4 years compared to a 2.5 fWAR player for the next 3 years? Both can improve, but Trumbo is really the only one of these two who has chance to be a truly impact player.

[southsider2k5]

I feel like you made a convincing case about why that would be a weak deal for the white sox, not a fair one.

 

The thing is we get way more marginal return from an offensive player than we do a pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

Offensively, Trumbo is a right handed Adam Dunn without the walks.

[Balta1701]

A 2.0 fWAR player for the next 4 years compared to a 2.5 fWAR player for the next 3 years? Both can improve, but Trumbo is really the only one of these two who has chance to be a truly impact player.

But when you throw in their age and experience it seems the guy under contract for 4 years has much more upside while the 28 year old with a long track record has more downside risk.

[witesoxfan]

But when you throw in their age and experience it seems the guy under contract for 4 years has much more upside while the 28 year old with a long track record has more downside risk.

 

Trumbo's "long" track record is 1 more year than Santiago. Santiago is also a pitcher, so there's signficant risk there too.

 

We can argue this either way. Really, I don't think this trade would be that far fetched nor leaning favorably to one side or the other. Frankly, I think there would be people on both sides that would love it and hate it.

[Dick Allen]

But when you throw in their age and experience it seems the guy under contract for 4 years has much more upside while the 28 year old with a long track record has more downside risk.

Plus Trumbo is going be making a lot more cabbage than Hector the next couple of years.

[witesoxfan]

Plus Trumbo is going be making a lot more cabbage than Hector the next couple of years.

 

It won't be a significant amount.

[Eminor3rd]

My point is that I think Santiago is overrated by us. Not valueless, but a controllable #4 starter is not going to bring back something exciting. Useful, yes.

 

Trumbo is probably a good fit, realistically, but he's way overrated because of his homers. I think the perceived value of Trumbo is much higher than his actual value, and Santiago isn't enough to get him. Certainly not Trumbo+

Edited September 30, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Balta1701]

My point is that I think Santiago is overrated by us. Not valueless, but a controllable #4 starter is not going to bring back something exciting. Useful, yes.

 

Trumbo is probably a good fit, realistically, but he's way overrated because of his homers. I think the perceived value of Trumbo is much higher than his actual value, and Santiago isn't enough to get him. Certainly not Trumbo+

He put up a 3.56 era in te Cell in 150 innings and that's with being jerked from the pen to the rotation for 2 years and tiring at the end. For guys with 100+ innings that puts him 64th out of 150+ pitchers. He had a similar ERa to Cole Hamels and slightly worse than Verlander who pitches in an easier ballpark. If he's a teams number 4 starter then they've got a great shot at a World Series because that team has 4 #1-2 starters. He was a solid number 3 this year and that's only because of the bullpen/innings bullplop we do.

 

If he only has te value of a number 4 starter then trading him is crazy because he's already better than that.

[witesoxfan]

He put up a 3.56 era in te Cell in 150 innings and that's with being jerked from the pen to the rotation for 2 years and tiring at the end. For guys with 100+ innings that puts him 64th out of 150+ pitchers. He had a similar ERa to Cole Hamels and slightly worse than Verlander who pitches in an easier ballpark. If he's a teams number 4 starter then they've got a great shot at a World Series because that team has 4 #1-2 starters. He was a solid number 3 this year and that's only because of the bullpen/innings bullplop we do.

 

If he only has te value of a number 4 starter then trading him is crazy because he's already better than that.

 

If he's going to maintain an ERA in the 3.50's though, he's going to have to improve his peripherals. He's going to need to walk fewer, possibly strike out more, and produce more ground balls. With the peripherals he put up this year - high fly balls, lots of walks, and almost a hit an inning - he's going to be far likelier to put up an ERA around 4.25-4.50 in the future. Fly balls end up bouncing off walls and leaving ball parks , and when you do that in combation with walking everybody, you'll have outings where you end up giving up 6 runs in a heartbeat.

 

I like Santiago and only suggested that Trumbo represents pretty equal value. I don't know that I'd make that move. Still, Santiago has a lot of room for improvement.

[southsider2k5]

If he's going to maintain an ERA in the 3.50's though, he's going to have to improve his peripherals. He's going to need to walk fewer, possibly strike out more, and produce more ground balls. With the peripherals he put up this year - high fly balls, lots of walks, and almost a hit an inning - he's going to be far likelier to put up an ERA around 4.25-4.50 in the future. Fly balls end up bouncing off walls and leaving ball parks , and when you do that in combation with walking everybody, you'll have outings where you end up giving up 6 runs in a heartbeat.

 

I like Santiago and only suggested that Trumbo represents pretty equal value. I don't know that I'd make that move. Still, Santiago has a lot of room for improvement.

 

We could well see an Edwin Jackson type of career from Santiago. Frustrating flashes of absolute dominance mixed in with irritating 110 pitch, 5 walk, 6 strikeout, 2 hit, 4 inning outings, add up into a wide range of years, and get pitching coaches fired.

[Rowand44]

While I certainly understand the concern with Hector's control, we also have to remember that this is a guy who has been jerked around the last few years by this organization. Once he finds his comfort zone as a starter he might very well harnass his control a bit. Obviously there's a possibility that he wont as well but I'm certainly willing to give him that chance before I decide that he's a completely wild pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

While I certainly understand the concern with Hector's control, we also have to remember that this is a guy who has been jerked around the last few years by this organization. Once he finds his comfort zone as a starter he might very well harnass his control a bit. Obviously there's a possibility that he wont as well but I'm certainly willing to give him that chance before I decide that he's a completely wild pitcher.

He settled into the rotation, but he is going to have to find a way to limit his pitches. I have never seen a guy give up such few hits, and often baserunners, but have such an elevated pitch count. He is almost always at or near 100 pitches by the 5th inning.

 

I also wonder if Coop and/or the White Sox organization just don't see him as a long-term rotation piece. They obviously wouldn't have their top prospects switch from relieving to starting as much as Hector, and from all indications the guy works hard and it a really good guy that doesn't cause problems, but something doesn't add up.

 

It would really be interesting if we could listen in on trade ideas, and see exactly what other teams think of him, as everyone is always looking for pitching. I think if a team is willing to give up what it takes to acquire a #3 or #4 starter making close to minimum, he is the pitcher they trade. He just doesn't seem too popular with White Sox evaluators, either because of his style or maybe they think he is going to get hurt or something. They have given far less successful pitchers, with a lot less "stuff" a longer leash.

[GoGoSox2k2]

I remember a couple weeks ago Bucket mentioned a possible Brett Lawrie for Quintana swap. Given the way Q finished the year and passed the 200 innings mark, I am hoping we can get more than just Lawrie for him. I do love the idea of Lawrie and hoping Hahn is pursuing a deal such as this to bring someone with energy, skill set and youth that Lawrie has.

[daggins]

I think a one for one swap would work. I just think that Trumbo + is too much.

[GGajewski18]

I remember a couple weeks ago Bucket mentioned a possible Brett Lawrie for Quintana swap. Given the way Q finished the year and passed the 200 innings mark, I am hoping we can get more than just Lawrie for him. I do love the idea of Lawrie and hoping Hahn is pursuing a deal such as this to bring someone with energy, skill set and youth that Lawrie has.

 

I think Santiago for Lawrie would benefit both teams and make more sense for both

[Dick Allen]

If people can't stand watching Adam Dunn hit, why would they enjoy watching Mark Trumbo?