Your Realistic 2014 Lineup

[Dick Allen]

It's one thing to give Cano $25 million a year. It's quite another to commit to doing that for 8 to 10 years.

[2nd_city_saint787]

OK, $23 million. $20 million. There aren't many.

 

Spending $25 million on one player essentially means that, for that contract to be fiscally efficient - which is not the same thing as fiscally responsible - that player has to average 5 WAR a season. That means that, over the life of the contract, the player has to pretty much be an All Star every single season. Maybe it's just me, but I look at Robinson Cano and see a guy who is going to turn into a .300/.350/.450, 10 HR, 45 2B type of hitter with worsening defense who will have to move to 1B about 5 or 6 years into that contract. That's a really good hitter still. It's not even close to being worth $25 million.

 

We'll just have to disagree here. I know he probably won't be worth it on the tail end of the contract but with what we have signed right now the 25M a year needed wouldn't cripple the White Sox financially.

 

With the payroll at 90 with Cano this year they could still add a guy like Dejesus, a platoon partner for Phegley at catcher(Brayan Pena is who I want), a LH reliever and still be less than 120M....Lets say 105M(De Aza ~5M is probably gone).

 

Then Dunns 15M is out of the way and they're back down to 90M. That gives them 35M to replace Dunn and extend Q. Semien is probably your 3B at this point.

 

I guess it should be said that I'm not clamoring for Cano, but just that I think it would work financially.

Edited October 22, 2013 by scs787

[Eminor3rd]

There's only been 3 of them in history, Ryan Howard(Who won a WS 2 years before the contract and then got bit by the injury bug), King Felix, and ARod so you can't really pull from that.

 

And why aren't the Sox really in position to do so?

 

Like I said in an earlier post, adding Canos 25M this year puts the payroll at 90M. Next year they have Dunns 15M coming off the books, the following year they have Lexi/Keppingers 14M coming of the books, the year after that they have Danks 14 or whatever coming off the books.

 

If they keep the payroll around 120M every year I think they could absolutely be in the position to field a good team.

 

Because when teams give those contracts, they are borrowing from their future to help their present. They are willing to be in trouble later to put themselves over the edge now. This is the opposite position that the White Sox are in.

[southsider2k5]

Because when teams give those contracts, they are borrowing from their future to help their present. They are willing to be in trouble later to put themselves over the edge now. This is the opposite position that the White Sox are in.

 

No better example than look at where they Tigers are right now.

 

[witesoxfan]

We'll just have to disagree here. I know he probably won't be worth it on the tail end of the contract but with what we have signed right now the 25M a year needed wouldn't cripple the White Sox financially.

 

With the payroll at 90 with Cano this year they could still add a guy like Dejesus, a platoon partner for Phegley at catcher(Brayan Pena is who I want), a LH reliever and still be less than 120M....Lets say 105M(De Aza ~5M is probably gone).

 

Then Dunns 15M is out of the way and they're back down to 90M. That gives them 35M to replace Dunn and extend Q. Semien is probably your 3B at this point.

 

I guess it should be said that I'm not clamoring for Cano, but just that I think it would work financially.

 

K, so just adding Cano, here's your team

 

C - Phegley/Flowers

1B - Abreu

2B - Cano

SS - Ramirez

3B - Semien/Beckham/Keppinger/Gillaspie

LF - Viciedo

CF - De Aza

RF - Garcia

 

Sale

Quintana

Santiago

Johnson

Danks

Rienzo

 

plus your bullpen of young guys

 

Does that team win a division? I don't believe it does. It may win 85 games, but I don't see a division title.

 

Then you lose Dunn and have to find a way to replace his production, and then it's the same with Ramirez the following season.

 

Rather than diversifying your team, you are putting all your eggs in one basket. What if Cano breaks his wrist and it saps all his power?

 

No better example than look at where they Tigers are right now.

 

They appear to have borrowed too much too, especially if they have to deal Scherzer this offseason.

[2nd_city_saint787]

No better example than look at where they Tigers are right now.

 

The Tigers already had big contracts like Verlander and Cabrera who were making big money though. The Sox have a team friendly Sale contract and potentially "cheap" JD Abreu deal as the only long term investments.

[Balta1701]

Does that team win a division? I don't believe it does. It may win 85 games, but I don't see a division title.

The problem is...there's actually a really solid chance that team could win the division or a wild card...but it'd be a major roll of the dice.

[southsider2k5]

The Tigers already had big contracts like Verlander and Cabrera who were making big money though. The Sox have a team friendly Sale contract and potentially "cheap" JD Abreu deal as the only long term investments.

 

They didn't "already" have big contracts. The Tigers signed both of those players to massive extensions. They also brought in Price on a deal as big as his ass.

 

For the White Sox if they got out and bring in a Cano for a bigger contract than any of those guys signed, it could just as easily impact them down the road when guys like Quintana become due for their big paydays. Heck if you give Cano his 10 year deal, it could actually impact the ability sign Chris Sale to his next contract. That is how long of a deal we are talking about here.

[2nd_city_saint787]

The problem is...there's actually a really solid chance that team could win the division or a wild card...but it'd be a major roll of the dice.

 

Right, I'm not saying there isn't a risk here which is why I previously said I'm not clamoring(I think I'm using that right) for the guy. All I'm really trying to say is that I'm not mad at their supposed interest in the guy because I think it could work

 

Wite, I'm also adding in a platoon partner for Phegley, who in this division that's very RHP heavy is a virtual starter. Brayan Pena, who I'd target, hit .325/.346/.455 last year against RHP. Now I know he won't do that as more of a full time player but even as a .250 hitter he offers a big upgrade over the sub .200 Ba Phegley put up. I'm also swapping out De Aza for Dejesus who offers a more heady veteran presence. Or they can potentially trade Santiago for a CF/full time catcher to improve the lineup.

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

They didn't "already" have big contracts. The Tigers signed both of those players to massive extensions. They also brought in Price on a deal as big as his ass.

 

For the White Sox if they got out and bring in a Cano for a bigger contract than any of those guys signed, it could just as easily impact them down the road when guys like Quintana become due for their big paydays. Heck if you give Cano his 10 year deal, it could actually impact the ability sign Chris Sale to his next contract. That is how long of a deal we are talking about here.

 

As it would stand right now the payroll next year would be around 90 mill next year with Cano on the team. They would have the money to extend Q and replace Dunn.

[Eminor3rd]

The Tigers already had big contracts like Verlander and Cabrera who were making big money though. The Sox have a team friendly Sale contract and potentially "cheap" JD Abreu deal as the only long term investments.

 

And a WHOLE bunches of deep holes to fill without much help coming from the farm.

[Eminor3rd]

As it would stand right now the payroll next year would be around 90 mill next year with Cano on the team. They would have the money to extend Q and replace Dunn.

 

Then what? What about C, 3B, LF, and CF? Do our 4/5 starters and RF have what it takes to break out? Why are we so eager to become the Cubs? If we dig in and fall short, we are looking at a ifnancial disaster. We need to have SOME patience. They need a year to figure out what they have in the core and if it's a team that's a couple big pieces from contention, THEN you splurge. Coming of a 99 loss season, there is little argument that the team is within reach. The stakes are too high to go allin right now.

[witesoxfan]

Right, I'm not saying there isn't a risk here which is why I previously said I'm not clamoring(I think I'm using that right) for the guy. All I'm really trying to say is that I'm not mad at their supposed interest in the guy because I think it could work

 

Wite, I'm also adding in a platoon partner for Phegley, who in this division that's very RHP heavy is a virtual starter. Brayan Pena, who I'd target, hit .325/.346/.455 last year against RHP. Now I know he won't do that as more of a full time player but even as a .250 hitter he offers a big upgrade over the sub .200 Ba Phegley put up. I'm also swapping out De Aza for Dejesus who offers a more heady veteran presence. Or they can potentially trade Santiago for a CF/full time catcher to improve the lineup.

 

Yes, Pena hit .325/.346/.455/.801 this year in 133 plate appearances against righties. He's also at .262/.296/.377/.673 against righties for his career in about 6 times as many plate appearances. DeJesus has also had 2 pretty mediocre offensive years out of the last 3 and he turns 34 in December. I don't see how he is an upgrade over De Aza and, in fact, view him as a downgrade who could easily cost more.

 

With the position this team is in, signing a guy to a $200-250 million deal just does not make sense for about a hundred reasons.

[witesoxfan]

Then what? What about C, 3B, LF, and CF? Do our 4/5 starters and RF have what it takes to break out? Why are we so eager to become the Cubs? If we dig in and fall short, we are looking at a ifnancial disaster. We need to have SOME patience. They need a year to figure out what they have in the core and if it's a team that's a couple big pieces from contention, THEN you splurge. Coming of a 99 loss season, there is little argument that the team is within reach. The stakes are too high to go allin right now.

 

To add on to this, I could see the team competing, and it would be a godsend if they did, but you want to protect yourself if it doesn't. Does Cano push you over the top? I don't believe so, and I can't agree with any argument that says otherwise. If the Sox are to spend $200 million so irrationally, I'd prefer they do it on Ellsbury and McCann to atleast spread out the assets.

 

Beyond ANY of this, the Sox depth is in middle infield. I suggested picking up Brandon Phillips because he could be a decent buy low candidate if you could get him for about $7.5 mill a year because he can be a 3-4 WAR player and is almost certain to be a 2 WAR player. You are talking about spending 3 to 4 times that $7.5 million amount for twice as long for what frankly amounts to a marginal upgrade. Beyond THAT, Marcus Semien could be for real and could put up .270/.370/.430 next year with good defense and then the Sox have a 4 WAR 2B anyways.

[2nd_city_saint787]

And a WHOLE bunches of deep holes to fill without much help coming from the farm.

 

Hypothetically speaking...

 

If Semien is the player we all hope he is then he takes over at 3B for cheap. I'd keep him in the minors and see what Gillaspie does in his 2nd year, if he performs then you trade Lexi and play Semien at short. The infield would then be Gillaspie-Semien-Cano-Abreu for awhile. If Gillaspie doesn't improve then you play Marcus at 3rd and keep Lexi. Hopefully after the last 2 years of Lexis contract Tim Anderson would be ready to take over. That's Semien-Lexi-Cano-Abreu for 2 years then Semien-Anderson-Cano-Abreu after that.

 

With Cano signed I could see the Sox moving Micah Johnson to CF(this has been talked about anyway). Keep De Aza or add a stop gap player like Dejesus for a couple years while Micah is adjusting. Jacob May is also a guy who I could see in CF after 2 years.

 

LF or DH could go to Tank with the Sox signing a free agent for the other position

 

Hopefully the Sox can trade a pitcher for a long term catcher.

 

I know that's banking on a few guys who I probably shouldn't bank on but they're there, and hypothetically speaking it could work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

I'm generally against mega contracts in baseball. Even impact players don't get enough opportunities to justify the disparity. I'd rather sign 2-3 good players instead if 1 great player.

Edited October 22, 2013 by TaylorStSox

[2nd_city_saint787]

To add on to this, I could see the team competing, and it would be a godsend if they did, but you want to protect yourself if it doesn't. Does Cano push you over the top? I don't believe so, and I can't agree with any argument that says otherwise. If the Sox are to spend $200 million so irrationally, I'd prefer they do it on Ellsbury and McCann to atleast spread out the assets.

 

Beyond ANY of this, the Sox depth is in middle infield. I suggested picking up Brandon Phillips because he could be a decent buy low candidate if you could get him for about $7.5 mill a year because he can be a 3-4 WAR player and is almost certain to be a 2 WAR player. You are talking about spending 3 to 4 times that $7.5 million amount for twice as long for what frankly amounts to a marginal upgrade. Beyond THAT, Marcus Semien could be for real and could put up .270/.370/.430 next year with good defense and then the Sox have a 4 WAR 2B anyways.

 

I actually agree with the bold. I'm just talking about Cano now because of the article someone posted saying the Sox are interested.

[southsider2k5]

Hypothetically speaking...

 

If Semien is the player we all hope he is then he takes over at 3B for cheap. I'd keep him in the minors and see what Gillaspie does in his 2nd year, if he performs then you trade Lexi and play Semien at short. The infield would then be Gillaspie-Semien-Cano-Abreu for awhile. If Gillaspie doesn't improve then you play Marcus at 3rd and keep Lexi. Hopefully after the last 2 years of Lexis contract Tim Anderson would be ready to take over. That's Semien-Lexi-Cano-Abreu for 2 years then Semien-Anderson-Cano-Abreu after that.

 

With Cano signed I could see the Sox moving Micah Johnson to CF(this has been talked about anyway). Keep De Aza or add a stop gap player like Dejesus for a couple years while Micah is adjusting. Jacob May is also a guy who I could see in CF after 2 years.

 

LF or DH could go to Tank with the Sox signing a free agent for the other position

 

Hopefully the Sox can trade a pitcher for a long term catcher.

 

I know that's banking on a few guys who I probably shouldn't bank on but they're there, and hypothetically speaking it could work.

 

That is a ton of "if"s to justify $200 million

 

[witesoxfan]

Hypothetically speaking...

 

If Semien is the player we all hope he is then he takes over at 3B for cheap. I'd keep him in the minors and see what Gillaspie does in his 2nd year, if he performs then you trade Lexi and play Semien at short. The infield would then be Gillaspie-Semien-Cano-Abreu for awhile. If Gillaspie doesn't improve then you play Marcus at 3rd and keep Lexi. Hopefully after the last 2 years of Lexis contract Tim Anderson would be ready to take over. That's Semien-Lexi-Cano-Abreu for 2 years then Semien-Anderson-Cano-Abreu after that.

 

With Cano signed I could see the Sox moving Micah Johnson to CF(this has been talked about anyway). Keep De Aza or add a stop gap player like Dejesus for a couple years while Micah is adjusting. Jacob May is also a guy who I could see in CF after 2 years.

 

LF or DH could go to Tank with the Sox signing a free agent for the other position

 

Hopefully the Sox can trade a pitcher for a long term catcher.

 

I know that's banking on a few guys who I probably shouldn't bank on but they're there, and hypothetically speaking it could work.

 

Let's look at the reverse. Cano gets his contract and just DGAF. He comes out, hits .280/.350/.425 with 15 homers and a .775 OPS. Suddenly you're paying $25 million to a 2 WAR player. We are in Josh Hamilton territory, except worse. Then Gillaspie blows, and then Semien flops as his replacement. Tim Anderson turns out to be nothing more than a decent glove, no better a prospect than Leury Garcia. Micah Johnson proves incapable of hitting advanced pitching and is an Eric Young Jr clone, which is to say that he is a .260/.320/.330 hitter in the majors who can steal 40 bases and literally nothing else.

 

Suddenly you have holes all over and no money to spend. Abreu has turned into a .330/.450/.650 monstrosity of a hitter, but not only do you have no funds to reisign him, but he doesn't want to re-sign with a perennial loser anyways. At this point, you have to ride the storm out with Cano until he gets to about 2 years remaning on his 8 year deal and then eat $35 million just so you can save $15 mill, start Junior Lake Junior in LF because he's better than anything you have, and continue to perpetually suck for the next 5 years. That's potentially 13-15 years of suckage simply because you signed Robinson Cano and he stopped caring.

[Quin]

I actually agree with the bold. I'm just talking about Cano now because of the article someone posted saying the Sox are interested.

 

Yup, give me Ellsbury and McCann for the same price as Cano.

 

Plug two holes and likely get better production for the same price.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Let's look at the reverse. Cano gets his contract and just DGAF. He comes out, hits .280/.350/.425 with 15 homers and a .775 OPS. Suddenly you're paying $25 million to a 2 WAR player. We are in Josh Hamilton territory, except worse. Then Gillaspie blows, and then Semien flops as his replacement. Tim Anderson turns out to be nothing more than a decent glove, no better a prospect than Leury Garcia. Micah Johnson proves incapable of hitting advanced pitching and is an Eric Young Jr clone, which is to say that he is a .260/.320/.330 hitter in the majors who can steal 40 bases and literally nothing else.

 

Suddenly you have holes all over and no money to spend. Abreu has turned into a .330/.450/.650 monstrosity of a hitter, but not only do you have no funds to reisign him, but he doesn't want to re-sign with a perennial loser anyways. At this point, you have to ride the storm out with Cano until he gets to about 2 years remaning on his 8 year deal and then eat $35 million just so you can save $15 mill, start Junior Lake Junior in LF because he's better than anything you have, and continue to perpetually suck for the next 5 years. That's potentially 13-15 years of suckage simply because you signed Robinson Cano and he stopped caring.

 

Welllll, if you wanna look at it that way....lol

 

I'm done here.

[Marty34]

Then what? What about C, 3B, LF, and CF? Do our 4/5 starters and RF have what it takes to break out? Why are we so eager to become the Cubs? If we dig in and fall short, we are looking at a ifnancial disaster. We need to have SOME patience. They need a year to figure out what they have in the core and if it's a team that's a couple big pieces from contention, THEN you splurge. Coming of a 99 loss season, there is little argument that the team is within reach. The stakes are too high to go allin right now.

 

Agreed. This is why you explore picking up a guy like Uggla and deal Beckham and Ramirez.

[southsider2k5]

Welllll, if you wanna look at it that way....lol

 

I'm done here.

 

Being fully honest, it is much more likely that all of those prospects flop, versus that they all succeed.

[GoGoSox2k2]

Let's look at the reverse. Cano gets his contract and just DGAF. He comes out, hits .280/.350/.425 with 15 homers and a .775 OPS. Suddenly you're paying $25 million to a 2 WAR player. We are in Josh Hamilton territory, except worse. Then Gillaspie blows, and then Semien flops as his replacement. Tim Anderson turns out to be nothing more than a decent glove, no better a prospect than Leury Garcia. Micah Johnson proves incapable of hitting advanced pitching and is an Eric Young Jr clone, which is to say that he is a .260/.320/.330 hitter in the majors who can steal 40 bases and literally nothing else.

 

Suddenly you have holes all over and no money to spend. Abreu has turned into a .330/.450/.650 monstrosity of a hitter, but not only do you have no funds to reisign him, but he doesn't want to re-sign with a perennial loser anyways. At this point, you have to ride the storm out with Cano until he gets to about 2 years remaning on his 8 year deal and then eat $35 million just so you can save $15 mill, start Junior Lake Junior in LF because he's better than anything you have, and continue to perpetually suck for the next 5 years. That's potentially 13-15 years of suckage simply because you signed Robinson Cano and he stopped caring.

 

 

i completely agree with this. cano just strikes me as a guy that does not always have that fire and desire for the team aspect. not the guy i want the white sox (with the way our finances are) to tie up money long term to. as someone mentioned below, id much rather sign mccann and ellsbury than just cano

[Eminor3rd]

Hypothetically speaking...

 

If Semien is the player we all hope he is then he takes over at 3B for cheap. I'd keep him in the minors and see what Gillaspie does in his 2nd year, if he performs then you trade Lexi and play Semien at short. The infield would then be Gillaspie-Semien-Cano-Abreu for awhile. If Gillaspie doesn't improve then you play Marcus at 3rd and keep Lexi. Hopefully after the last 2 years of Lexis contract Tim Anderson would be ready to take over. That's Semien-Lexi-Cano-Abreu for 2 years then Semien-Anderson-Cano-Abreu after that.

 

With Cano signed I could see the Sox moving Micah Johnson to CF(this has been talked about anyway). Keep De Aza or add a stop gap player like Dejesus for a couple years while Micah is adjusting. Jacob May is also a guy who I could see in CF after 2 years.

 

LF or DH could go to Tank with the Sox signing a free agent for the other position

 

Hopefully the Sox can trade a pitcher for a long term catcher.

 

I know that's banking on a few guys who I probably shouldn't bank on but they're there, and hypothetically speaking it could work.

 

But see this is a great argument that now isn't the time. It's not that it COULDN'T work out, it's just that you have to see what you've got in your core first. Right now, there are way more scenarios where it doesn't work out than where it does, and the stakes of a long-term financially crippling contract are what leads teams to years of being bad.