Your Realistic 2014 Lineup

[witesoxfan]

I agree, my argument in getting Josh Johnson is in regards to depth if Sox do trade Santiago. I really think we can get Santiago and lesser prospects for Brett Lawrie.

 

This happens and then sign Salty and Sox can have a legit offense

 

So you're saying

 

C - Saltalamacchia

1B - Abreu

2B - Beckham/Semien

SS - Ramirez

3B - Lawrie

LF - Viciedo

CF - De Aza

RF - Garcia

DH - Dunn

 

is a legit offense? It's an improvement, but I still have my doubts as to whether that offense would score 650 runs.

[GGajewski18]

So you're saying

 

C - Saltalamacchia

1B - Abreu

2B - Beckham/Semien

SS - Ramirez

3B - Lawrie

LF - Viciedo

CF - De Aza

RF - Garcia

DH - Dunn

 

is a legit offense? It's an improvement, but I still have my doubts as to whether that offense would score 650 runs.

 

Honestly I truly believe it could be very good. And Beckham would probably be headed to Toronto also.

[Eminor3rd]

So you're saying

 

C - Saltalamacchia

1B - Abreu

2B - Beckham/Semien

SS - Ramirez

3B - Lawrie

LF - Viciedo

CF - De Aza

RF - Garcia

DH - Dunn

 

is a legit offense? It's an improvement, but I still have my doubts as to whether that offense would score 650 runs.

 

BUT it would be a substantial improvement on last year and it's something that you can add to over the next couple years. That would be a better team that was made WITHOUT sacrificing the future.

[witesoxfan]

Honestly I truly believe it could be very good. And Beckham would probably be headed to Toronto also.

 

Let's look again real quick and come up with some reasonable projections

 

C - Saltalamacchia - .250/.325/.425

1B - Abreu - .275/.350/.500

2B - Semien - .240/.320/.380

SS - Ramirez - .270/.310/.390

3B - Lawrie - .250/.310/.415

LF - Viciedo - .260/.325/.425

CF - De Aza - .260/.325/.425

RF - Garcia - .270/.330/.420

DH - Dunn - .220/.330/.420

 

Are any of those that far off of what would be expected? There's some room for growth, but I think those are all pretty reasonable, and it makes for a poor offense. It's one I'd be OK with given the circumstances and the ability for it to grow and improve, but I think the odds of it being even "league average" are incredibly low, and more likely it would be "bad," maybe right around the 650 mark. Like I said, given improvements - to Abreu, Ramirez, Lawrie, Viciedo, Garcia, and Dunn, who are the ones I believe are prone to vast fluctuations - they could get up over 700 runs. I don't believe they will. Add to that a very weak bench and suddenly you have no depth and no real talent.

 

Hopefully Steverson can help these guys out quite a bit.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

BUT it would be a substantial improvement on last year and it's something that you can add to over the next couple years. That would be a better team that was made WITHOUT sacrificing the future.

 

Yes, as I mention above, I'd be happy with it. I just think calling it "good" is a bigger stretch than Hawk trying to will a routine flyball out of the park.

[Jake]

I'd find it more likely that one of our OF posts an .850 and another a .650 than all of them being in the .700 range

[Balta1701]

Salty, Abreu, Semien, Lawrie and Viciedo could ALL be better than last year's production at their respective positions.

Here's my biggest problem with this thinking. Gillaspie was only a small amount worse than Lawrie at 3b as a rookie. Can't I also write "Phegley/Flowers, Abreu, Semien/Beckham, Viciedo, and Gillaspie/Keppinger could all be better than last year's production at their respective positions" and still have Santiago in my pocket and an extra $10 million saved on Salty?

 

For that to be a solid offense...you are requiring significant growth on the part of several people. But...if that growth happens amongst the guys we already have, then we get a solid offense without those additions. The only things that really obviously change is that yes, Lawrie has a much higher ceiling than a G/K platoon and yes, Salty has 1 season where he has a stronger record of production than the younger guys we have.

 

Again, for that to be a solid offense...we need the guys we already have to step up, and trading Santiago and signing Salty does nothing to change that. If the guys we already have struggle...we make those trades, have 1 fewer pitcher, $10 million fewer dollars to spend, and we still have a terrible offense.

[witesoxfan]

I'd find it more likely that one of our OF posts an .850 and another a .650 than all of them being in the .700 range

I would hope at least one of Viciedo or Garcia post an OPS of +.800 next year.

This definitely would not surprise me. It wouldn't surprise me to see Semien at .270/.350/.450, Garcia at .300/.360/.490, Viciedo at .275/.350/.500, De Aza at .270/.340/.460, Abreu at .300/.400/.550, Saltalamacchia at .270/.350/.475, et cetera. I just don't see it as likely.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by witesoxfan

[Eminor3rd]

Here's my biggest problem with this thinking. Gillaspie was only a small amount worse than Lawrie at 3b as a rookie. Can't I also write "Phegley/Flowers, Abreu, Semien/Beckham, Viciedo, and Gillaspie/Keppinger could all be better than last year's production at their respective positions" and still have Santiago in my pocket and an extra $10 million saved on Salty?

 

For that to be a solid offense...you are requiring significant growth on the part of several people. But...if that growth happens amongst the guys we already have, then we get a solid offense without those additions. The only things that really obviously change is that yes, Lawrie has a much higher ceiling than a G/K platoon and yes, Salty has 1 season where he has a stronger record of production than the younger guys we have.

 

Again, for that to be a solid offense...we need the guys we already have to step up, and trading Santiago and signing Salty does nothing to change that. If the guys we already have struggle...we make those trades, have 1 fewer pitcher, $10 million fewer dollars to spend, and we still have a terrible offense.

 

For Lawrie versus the field, comes down to upside to me. You can hope that our revolving door of platooners regress and get acceptable, and you might be right, but if you get Lawrie, it's so you can roll the dice on him being a star, assuming that his downside is similar to what you can get for the other guys.

 

As for C, I don't think there's hope for a full-time C out of what we have now. Salty is probably at his peak, but he's a legitimate solution that is young enough to make an impact for years to come. Throwing in Phegley as a B piece in a trade over the offseason and running in with a Saltalamacchia/Flowers platoon makes a ton of sense to me.

[Balta1701]

Lawrie's (again, this hypothetical) defense alone will be a big improvement at 3B. Do you plan to argue he wouldn't outperform Gillapie's .245/.305/.390 at the plate? Every AVG, OBP & SLG Lawrie has ever posted has been better than Gillaspies slash last year.

But by how much? Gillaspie was a rookie and we're literally already paying for a guy who should be an ideal platoon partner for him. Gillaspie has some room for improvement as well, particulalry if he's used right.

 

I'm seriously not interested in "slight upgrades" here - what we have ought to pencil in to a low .700's OPS at 3rd right now. Lawrie switching ballparks would project to a low .700's OPS if he repeated his last season.

 

You're paying for an improvement in the potential ceiling but Lawrie, if he does what he did last year...basically adds 10-20 points of OPS to what that platoon should in theory do. That's simply not good enough.

 

And with the rest of your guys...you're still counting on "imporvement from guys we already have". If we don't get that, then we have a crappy offense even with these guys.

[Eminor3rd]

But by how much? Gillaspie was a rookie and we're literally already paying for a guy who should be an ideal platoon partner for him. Gillaspie has some room for improvement as well, particulalry if he's used right.

 

I'm seriously not interested in "slight upgrades" here - what we have ought to pencil in to a low .700's OPS at 3rd right now. Lawrie switching ballparks would project to a low .700's OPS if he repeated his last season.

 

You're paying for an improvement in the potential ceiling but Lawrie, if he does what he did last year...basically adds 10-20 points of OPS to what that platoon should in theory do. That's simply not good enough.

 

And with the rest of your guys...you're still counting on "imporvement from guys we already have". If we don't get that, then we have a crappy offense even with these guys.

 

Yeah, if the Sox FO think Lawrie is close to his ceiling, it makes no sense to get him.

[Balta1701]

So we improve at 4 positions offensively and defensively. Plus there's good chances Ramirez and ADA are better at D than they were in '13. Subbing Garcia for Rios is probably a step in the wrong direction on both ends at least for '14 but it's necessary.

But you still missed the point.

 

Of those 4 positions...2 of them we've already done the improvement at...and the other 2 it's not unreasonable to expect some modest improvement even if no one is brought in since the guys we do have there are young.

 

I'm not opposed to upgrades here...but these aren't franchise-changing upgrades you're advocating and if you're wrong about some of the other guys they're 100% useless.

 

Ask yourself this question...if Abreu hits 12 home runs next year, or gets hurt...would you be happy you made those moves? Because you'd have Lawrie as he starts getting expensive, Salty under big money, and very little flexibility next season. We'd be out from under Dunn's contract but that basically all gets eaten up by guys moving into later arbitration years.

 

If one of our guys doesn't take the step forward, then we've sold off Santiago for a tiny upgrade on offense and we've spent $10 million a year for an upgrade at the catcher's spot that has a very iffy long-term history.

[GGajewski18]

I never proposed these moves. I stated several times "in this hypothetical" and said again it was SoxPride's plan. If you look in whatever thread Saltalamachiia is being talked about I am the one voicing caution.

 

Try to stay on topic here:

 

SoxPride proposed the Sox get Lawrie and Salty.

 

All I argued was that in terms of production

 

2013 C

2013 1B

2013 2B

2013 3B

 

Do you really disagree with that?

 

You can't disagree with that. I feel like the offense would definitely be more competent in theory of course and getting a third basemen of the future and a relatively young catcher still in Salty.

 

In my opinion I think you can build off guys like Garcia, Viciedo, Abreu, Semein, and Lawrie. Adding Salty would be a good complimentary piece while he's still somewhat young.

[GGajewski18]

That is my point. I don't understand how Balta is trying to change my claims but they are as simple as that.

 

I agree. The players I mentioned I feel like can be the core of the offense. And then just find or develop other player thy fit around them or even become part of the core.

 

Hopefully Thompson an Hawkins figure it out this year in the minors. I trust the Sox to develop pitching. Go after Gatewood at #3 and he can be apart of this in a couple years to replace Alexei.

[Balta1701]

I never proposed these moves. I stated several times "in this hypothetical" and said again it was SoxPride's plan. If you look in whatever thread Saltalamachiia is being talked about I am the one voicing caution.

 

Try to stay on topic here:

 

SoxPride proposed the Sox get Lawrie and Salty.

 

All I argued was that in terms of production

 

2013 C

2013 1B

2013 2B

2013 3B

 

Do you really disagree with that?

Here's the continuing problem.

 

Let's assume the White Sox do none of those deals, but Josh Phegley or Flowers hit well enough to at least be backups and Gillaspie and Keppinger perform at the level of their career numbers if they're platooned.

 

In that case:

2013 C

2013 1B

2013 2B

2013 3B

 

Basically the only thing that is different there is I removed one

[SCCWS]

I agree. The players I mentioned I feel like can be the core of the offense. And then just find or develop other player thy fit around them or even become part of the core.

 

Hopefully Thompson an Hawkins figure it out this year in the minors. I trust the Sox to develop pitching. Go after Gatewood at #3 and he can be apart of this in a couple years to replace Alexei.

 

 

When considering Salty, he was horrible throwing out runners, worse % than Phegley and Flowers. Ross the other Red Sox catcher was one of the best in the league so the problem was not with their staff.

 

[Jerksticks]

Here's the continuing problem.

 

Let's assume the White Sox do none of those deals, but Josh Phegley or Flowers hit well enough to at least be backups and Gillaspie and Keppinger perform at the level of their career numbers if they're platooned.

 

In that case:

2013 C

2013 1B

2013 2B

2013 3B

 

Basically the only thing that is different there is I removed one

 

I like this line of thinking. Especially when you consider 2012 as well. 1 more impact bat and I'm confident we can compete all year.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

CF - Gerardo Parra (L)

SS - Alexei Ramirez

RF - Avisail Garcia

1B - Jose Abreu

C - Jarrod Saltalamachia (S)

LF - Dayan Viciedo

DH - Adam Dunn (L)

2B - Marcus Semien

3B - Matt Davidson

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Take it for what it's worth but Hahn has said more than once this offseason that the FO underestimated that need for a catcher. I think a move is made, whether it's big or small we'll see but I feel they do something. They can't go into next year with Flowers/Phegley. Either bring in a LH back up/partner, bring in a starter or bring in a great defender.

There is like a 5% chance that we go into 2014 with Phegley & Flowers as our major league catchers. Who knows how they view Salty, but it's clear that an upgrade at C will be a priority this offseason based on Hahn's comments. And quite frankly, it makes complete sense given how weak we are at the position throughout the organization.

 

IMO, Salty would be a great get for us. I think his floor is a 2 WAR player, which would still be acceptable at $9 or $10M a year. However, if he truly took a step last year with the bat then that salary could be quite a bargain. Regardless, there's nothing wrong with paying market rate to fill a huge organizational need as long as the risk is minimal. I guess I don't see a lot of downside in signing Salty through his age 32 season, which is what a four year deal would require and the most I think he will get in free agency.

[Balta1701]

There is like a 5% chance that we go into 2014 with Phegley & Flowers as our major league catchers. Who knows how they view Salty, but it's clear that an upgrade at C will be a priority this offseason based on Hahn's comments. And quite frankly, it makes complete sense given how weak we are at the position throughout the organization.

 

IMO, Salty would be a great get for us. I think his floor is a 2 WAR player, which would still be acceptable at $9 or $10M a year. However, if he truly took a step last year with the bat then that salary could be quite a bargain. Regardless, there's nothing wrong with paying market rate to fill a huge organizational need as long as the risk is minimal. I guess I don't see a lot of downside in signing Salty through his age 32 season, which is what a four year deal would require and the most I think he will get in free agency.

The downside is that he puts up numbers close to his career numbers of a low-.700's OPS without great defense he's put up every year of his career before last year and you're paying $10 million for a guy who gives 1 WAR next year and declines from there.

 

I have no idea how you look at his career and say te risk of a market value contract is minimal when he's been barely above replacement until last year. The risk is you're paying a fortune for the guy the Rangers let walk. Maybe it's the right move, but the downside is quite plain.

[Lemon_44]

LF- Viciedo

CF- Jon Jay

RF- Garcia

3B- Pablo Sandoval

SS- Beckham

2B- Semien

1B- Abreu

C- Saltamacchia

DH- Dunn

 

The Sox acquire Jay from the Cards in a deal with Alexei. Other parts, but those 2 are the principals.

The Sox acquire Sandoval in a deal with SF involving De Aza and pitching.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

There is like a 5% chance that we go into 2014 with Phegley & Flowers as our major league catchers. Who knows how they view Salty, but it's clear that an upgrade at C will be a priority this offseason based on Hahn's comments. And quite frankly, it makes complete sense given how weak we are at the position throughout the organization.

 

IMO, Salty would be a great get for us. I think his floor is a 2 WAR player, which would still be acceptable at $9 or $10M a year. However, if he truly took a step last year with the bat then that salary could be quite a bargain. Regardless, there's nothing wrong with paying market rate to fill a huge organizational need as long as the risk is minimal. I guess I don't see a lot of downside in signing Salty through his age 32 season, which is what a four year deal would require and the most I think he will get in free agency.

How can his floor be a 2 WAR player when 2013 was the only year he was at least a 2 WAR player?

[coco1997]

LF- Viciedo

CF- Jon Jay

RF- Garcia

3B- Pablo Sandoval

SS- Beckham

2B- Semien

1B- Abreu

C- Saltamacchia

DH- Dunn

 

The Sox acquire Jay from the Cards in a deal with Alexei. Other parts, but those 2 are the principals.

The Sox acquire Sandoval in a deal with SF involving De Aza and pitching.

 

I actually like this a lot.

[Balta1701]

LF- Viciedo

CF- Jon Jay

RF- Garcia

3B- Pablo Sandoval

SS- Beckham

2B- Semien

1B- Abreu

C- Saltamacchia

DH- Dunn

 

The Sox acquire Jay from the Cards in a deal with Alexei. Other parts, but those 2 are the principals.

The Sox acquire Sandoval in a deal with SF involving De Aza and pitching.

Gordon Beckham is right now barely adequate any more at 2b. He's not moving to SS. You may as well pencil in Viciedo there.

[Jose Abreu]

MLBTR says Rangers, Boston, and Yankees are early McCann frontrunners. If he were to sign with Texas, would anyone be opposed to a one year deal for Pierzynski? It would give Phlowers a chance to develop.