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Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox


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Not saying I'm opposed to getting Bundy, but let's be clear about something... the 80% (or whatever number) "success rate" is not some on or off thing. That means 80% come back and are able to pitch. it does NOT mean there is an 80% chance they can pitch just as well. There is a whole range of possible outcomes, and there is no way it is that 80% of pitchers come back with the same level velocity, movement, control, etc. across the board. TJ is still a risk.

 

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 09:06 PM)
No it's really not. You could potentially get one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. TJ has an 80% success rate. Bundy is a potential ace.

 

Sign me up for it, but I could never see JR approving it.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 01:39 PM)
In my opinion, if Dylan Bundy were on the table, Peavy would already be in Baltimore. Tommy John or not. Last year he was the best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball. He's still going to be a stud. I'd take that chance and be really excited about it.

I have no idea what Hahn is thinking but I agree with the rest of your post. Bundy is the type of talent ill take a shot on.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:12 PM)
Doug Padilla ‏@ESPNChiSox 1m

 

Peavy says he's still expecting to pitch tomorrow. Last got a trade update from Hahn on Sunday.

 

So when he packed 5 bags for the road trip?

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 08:08 PM)
Not saying I'm opposed to getting Bundy, but let's be clear about something... the 80% (or whatever number) "success rate" is not some on or off thing. That means 80% come back and are able to pitch. it does NOT mean there is an 80% chance they can pitch just as well. There is a whole range of possible outcomes, and there is no way it is that 80% of pitchers come back with the same level velocity, movement, control, etc. across the board. TJ is still a risk.

Yeah that. I'm lost as to why people are promoting 80 percent success rate as a good thing. That seems awfully low for a non life threatening surgery. Oh and then he still has to be as good as he was and make up for key developmental time lost

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QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 01:18 PM)
On days like this I wish the mods here were more like the mods at WSI. Hand out bulls*** suspensions for anyone who claims we can get Bogarets for Peavy OR Profar for Rios.

Yeah, because you know better!

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:16 PM)
Yeah that. I'm lost as to why people are promoting 80 percent success rate as a good thing. That seems awfully low for a non life threatening surgery. Oh and then he still has to be as good as he was and make up for key developmental time lost

It is 80% satisfaction to return to previous level. It's higher just to return to pitching. 80% is high for any type of "replacement" surgery is regards to return to previous level of activity. sports medicine while making great leaps in recent years is still not an exact science. There are still things that cannot be done. For example, replacing a posterior cruciate ligament. Many people return froma torn ACL but tear a PCL and you turn out like Urlacher and need to retire.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:16 PM)
Yeah that. I'm lost as to why people are promoting 80 percent success rate as a good thing. That seems awfully low for a non life threatening surgery. Oh and then he still has to be as good as he was and make up for key developmental time lost

 

To me the question is interesting because you are talking about a pitcher who has been projected to potentially be a superstar. Pre-surgery no one had ANY chance of trading for him. Now with the uncertainty surrounding him, apparently that has changed. Is it worth a diminished shot at a kid who could be one of the best pitchers in baseball? Even if he if his ceiling comes down to say a #2-3 starter because Bundy "isn't the same", what is the value there, when that is combined with the chance at an ace type starter? How do you equate an offer like Dylan Bundy versus someone who doesn't have that potential ceiling, but also doesn't have that injury thing hanging over them?

 

I imagine you dig really hard into his medicals and talk to the doctors who both preformed the surgery and the people who are leading his rebab and go from there.

 

It really is a great baseball debate question with no right answer unless you have the gift of hindsight.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:23 PM)
It is 80% satisfaction to return to previous level. It's higher just to return to pitching. 80% is high for any type of "replacement" surgery is regards to return to previous level of activity. sports medicine while making great leaps in recent years is still not an exact science. There are still things that cannot be done. For example, replacing a posterior cruciate ligament. Many people return froma torn ACL but tear a PCL and you turn out like Urlacher and need to retire.

I love it when you analyze.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 08:23 PM)
It is 80% satisfaction to return to previous level. It's higher just to return to pitching. 80% is high for any type of "replacement" surgery is regards to return to previous level of activity. sports medicine while making great leaps in recent years is still not an exact science. There are still things that cannot be done. For example, replacing a posterior cruciate ligament. Many people return froma torn ACL but tear a PCL and you turn out like Urlacher and need to retire.

Thanks. That makes a lot more sense. Though going through the names of recent Tommy John plaers, I'm still not too encouraged

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I was just reading an Orioles forum and of course, they are suggesting they might trade Bundy for Sale, but never for Peavy.

 

One of the responses was "I'd be shocked if Sale makes it to his arb years without suffering major injury."

 

Uhhh....

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:38 PM)
I was just reading an Orioles forum and of course, they are suggesting they might trade Bundy for Sale, but never for Peavy.

 

One of the responses was "I'd be shocked if Sale makes it to his arb years without suffering major injury."

 

Uhhh....

 

Lol.

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QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:18 PM)
On days like this I wish the mods here were more like the mods at WSI. Hand out bulls*** suspensions for anyone who claims we can get Bogarets for Peavy OR Profar for Rios.

 

Eh, we let the gallery take care of the hanging when it comes to speculation. When people post things as fact and repeatedly are proven to be lying, then we step in.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 03:32 PM)
Thanks. That makes a lot more sense. Though going through the names of recent Tommy John plaers, I'm still not too encouraged

 

Who is the last elite SP to have not made it back from TJ?

 

Wainwright had it, still a boss.

Stras had it, still a boss

Zimmerman had it, came back even better.

AJ burnnet, Anibal Sanchez, and CJ Wilson are all still top of the rotation guys.

 

Bundy was said to have a FB consistently in the high 90's to go along with 3 other good pitches...Even if he comes back throwing in the low 90's (which probably won't be the case) he still has the potential to be an ace.

 

Fun fact, of the 360 opening day pitchers 124 have had TJ surgery at one point, over 1/3rd. Or so says bleacher report anyway.

Edited by scs787
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To me, the argument for taking on Bundy is that you figure a typical pitching prospect has a substantially LESS than 80% chance to be above average at the ML level. If you believe that a healthy Bundy has a much better chance than most -- and considering how polished and close to the Majors we was before his injury, I think that's at least a reasonable argument -- then you can consider the the 20% chance that he doesn't regain his stuff part of the risk that would normally be assigned to a less elite pitching prospect.

 

In other words, and 80% chance that Bundy is Bundy after the surgery might be much better odds than that of a guy like, say Ranaudo remaining healthy and developing into what Bundy already is.

Edited by Eminor3rd
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I think the peavy deal is imminent. With the way robin let him start the 8th the other day in front of the fans, so he could get the standing o from the home crowd, and then all this. Just saying

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QUOTE (JoshPR @ Jul 29, 2013 -> 04:57 PM)
I think the peavy deal is imminent. With the way robin let him start the 8th the other day in front of the fans, so he could get the standing o from the home crowd, and then all this. Just saying

And then slink away embarrassed that his last moment in a white sox uniform was, appropriately, giving up a HR.

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