Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox

[cabiness42]

2005 was lucky. It doesn't change the fact that it was an incredible and magical year and that the Sox were an incredible team.

 

It wasn't entirely luck. Those 5 starters all had track records of being pretty durable.

[Eminor3rd]

Nothing against you but have you done enough research on variances in players O- Contacts rates to establish anything about it ? Maybe studied a group of high profile players from rookie year to now and see if there is any correlation ?

 

Sometimes you make it seem like its the end all be all of how good a player is or will become like you did with Garcia. Doesn't hitting for a high average mean anything at all ? I'd be pretty damn happy with every Sox prospect putting up a .380 batting average with lousy O-Contact rates wouldn't you ?

 

If I was making any sweeping generalizations, I think you are right to ask for some more evidence from me. But I'm not -- I'm simply talking about how Viciedo has taken a step backward offensively this year. That's an easy argument to make since all of his production-related numbers are worse, but since he is young and NOT a finished product, I'm trying to demonstrate a willingness to look beyond his numbers to see how his approach has differed. You and I both know that he swings at too many bad pitches, and if you look at Pitch F/X data, you see that he is swinging at more bad pitches than last year. I'm not aware of any research that tries to determine if successful players get better by learning to swing at more bad pitches, but that's probably because no one has felt that such research needs to be done.

 

As for Garcia, I'm quoting that number in comparison to all of the Major Leaguers currently. You can look at the leaderboards and see that his pitch selection numbers rank in the top 10 worst of all Major Leaguers, and that really only Carlos Gomez is having a decent year among all of those in the same neighborhood -- leading me to believe that his approach may murder AAA, but there's little to no precedent for it doing the same in MLB. Garcia belongs in the Majors, he's been there before and has nothing left to prove in AAA, so I'm evaluating him like a Major Leaguer. You don't hear me spending much time talking about Courtney Hawkins' rates, for example, because he's 19 and has so much more to figure out before I can evaluate him like a Major Leaguer.

 

Does that make sense? I know I'm clear as mud sometimes.

Edited August 5, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

He is calling 2005 luck with that comment. He takes any chance to belittle the Sox.

 

He was just pointing out that it was insane that all four starters threw all of those complete games. It's the only time it has ever happened in history -- so he acknowledged the exception to his rule.

[witesoxfan]

It wasn't entirely luck. Those 5 starters all had track records of being pretty durable.

 

I don't disagree with that, but the success they all had and that team generally coming together and winning like they did was pretty lucky, all things considered.

[Balta1701]

He was just pointing out that it was insane that all four starters threw all of those complete games. It's the only time it has ever happened in history -- so he acknowledged the exception to his rule.

That quote refers to "Staying healthy through the entire season" which is very different from throwing 4 consecutive complete games.

[LittleHurt05]

He was just pointing out that it was insane that all four starters threw all of those complete games. It's the only time it has ever happened in history -- so he acknowledged the exception to his rule.

 

I think he was referring to the fact that 4 starters never missed a start. And two guys took all 32 starts from the 5th starter's spot. It's not often a team goes through a season with only 6 guys making a start.

[Eminor3rd]

That quote refers to "Staying healthy through the entire season" which is very different from throwing 4 consecutive complete games.

 

I think he was referring to the fact that 4 starters never missed a start. And two guys took all 32 starts from the 5th starter's spot. It's not often a team goes through a season with only 6 guys making a start.

 

Ok, sorry. Same point though.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If I was making any sweeping generalizations, I think you are right to ask for some more evidence from me. But I'm not -- I'm simply talking about how Viciedo has taken a step backward offensively this year. That's an easy argument to make since all of his production-related numbers are worse, but since he is young and NOT a finished product, I'm trying to demonstrate a willingness to look beyond his numbers to see how his approach has differed. You and I both know that he swings at too many bad pitches, and if you look at Pitch F/X data, you see that he is swinging at more bad pitches than last year. I'm not aware of any research that tries to determine if successful players get better by learning to swing at more bad pitches, but that's probably because no one has felt that such research needs to be done.

 

As for Garcia, I'm quoting that number in comparison to all of the Major Leaguers currently. You can look at the leaderboards and see that his pitch selection numbers rank in the top 10 worst of all Major Leaguers, and that really only Carlos Gomez is having a decent year among all of those in the same neighborhood -- leading me to believe that his approach may murder AAA, but there's little to no precedent for it doing the same in MLB. Garcia belongs in the Majors, he's been there before and has nothing left to prove in AAA, so I'm evaluating him like a Major Leaguer. You don't hear me spending much time talking about Courtney Hawkins' rates, for example, because he's 19 and has so much more to figure out before I can evaluate him like a Major Leaguer.

 

Does that make sense? I know I'm clear as mud sometimes.

I don't see how you got that I wanted a study on how to be sucessful by swinging at more bad pitches, that would be pretty silly. I said take some players who who've been around a while whose contact rates may' ve started off bad and see how they've progressed and how contact rates correlate to their better or worst seasons.

 

I know as well as anyone that swinging at bad pitches is not a good thing. Certainly we both want to see improvement. Garcia is great at hitting strikes so force pitchers to throw strikes otherwise take your base on balls. Hawk always talks about hitters getting themselves out and how Tommy John was great at that. No one likes seeing Phegley flail at pitches in the dirt so often.

 

You said you don't evaluate Hawkins because he is just 19. Garcia just turned 22 in June and already was sucessful in high pressure situations like the ALCS. I guess I'm just more optimistic about how Garcia hits strikes than I am pessimistic about how often he swings at junk. But once he learns to lay off the junk, he'll be a beast.

[ptatc]

I think he was referring to the fact that 4 starters never missed a start. And two guys took all 32 starts from the 5th starter's spot. It's not often a team goes through a season with only 6 guys making a start.

Exactly, which is why I keep saying that getting rid of Danks will put the sox in a whole to have 7 starters in 2015.

 

However, the point remains that he was taking a shot at the Sox WS title.

[witesoxfan]

Exactly, which is why I keep saying that getting rid of Danks will put the sox in a whole to have 7 starters in 2015.

 

However, the point remains that he was taking a shot at the Sox WS title.

 

I still think you are reading way too far into that. I think he's merely talking about how fortunate and lucky the 2005 Sox were to only have to use 5 starting pitchers. It's the exception to the rule. Do you disagree?

[Eminor3rd]

But once he learns to lay off the junk, he'll be a beast.

 

Most of the stuff we're talking about now isn't really related to my original post about how Viciedo has been worse at the plate this year, so I don't really know what to say about that.

 

But the line quoted above -- I absolutely agree with. The problem is that it isn't a given that he actually will learn to lay off the bad stuff. The thing about Garcia being older and more advanced than someone like Hawkins is, in fact, one of the biggest reasons I worry about his plate discipline -- because he has come much farther, and has been instructed much longer, and he still is swinging at 41% of the pitches out of the zone. When you combine that with the fact that the White Sox coaching staff (from what I glean from the media and the way most Sox hitters have acted) appears to encourage an aggressive approach, I am afraid there's a good chance, maybe even a higher than average chance, that Garcia won't actually learn to lay off said junk. Watching Viciedo make zero progress is just further reason to believe the coaching staff isn't able or willing to teach an approach that will work for Garcia.

 

Of course, it's certainly possible that Viciedo simply isn't capable of recognizing pitches and it has nothing to do with the coaching staff. Maybe Viciedo is just obstinate and all of my impressions of the coaching staff are wrong; they are trying their best. It's also possible that Garcia will never listen to the coaching staff anyway and have a revelation and change his approach for the better on his own. Or maybe he'll just be Vladimir Guerrero. I hope one these things is the case, but there is no evidence that points to them, so it must be considered less likely that they will happen than what all of the data points to. And so I'm worried about him because it doesn't look like he's in the right environment to succeed, and that's why I didn't like the acquisition. I acknowledge he has tremendous talent and potential, but I was hoping that the Sox would address their horrid immaturity at the plate by acquiring a hitting prospect that had already shown a propensity for a more mature approach, and I thought it was a real possibility because there were some logical candidates on teams that wanted Peavy.

[cabiness42]

I just noticed on the Sox website that Garcia is not listed on the 40 man roster. He has to be there, right? He had to be on the Tigers 40 man roster since he was in the majors this season, and you can't lose your roster spot without clearing waviers, even if you're traded. Is this just an oversight on the website?

[flavum]

I just noticed on the Sox website that Garcia is not listed on the 40 man roster. He has to be there, right? He had to be on the Tigers 40 man roster since he was in the majors this season, and you can't lose your roster spot without clearing waviers, even if you're traded. Is this just an oversight on the website?

 

I noticed that the other day too. He has to be on the 40-man. That's just a mistake.

[LittleHurt05]

I just noticed on the Sox website that Garcia is not listed on the 40 man roster. He has to be there, right? He had to be on the Tigers 40 man roster since he was in the majors this season, and you can't lose your roster spot without clearing waviers, even if you're traded. Is this just an oversight on the website?

 

They tend to be slow to update the MLB website from some reason. ESPN already has him listed on their 40-man roster.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Most of the stuff we're talking about now isn't really related to my original post about how Viciedo has been worse at the plate this year, so I don't really know what to say about that.

 

But the line quoted above -- I absolutely agree with. The problem is that it isn't a given that he actually will learn to lay off the bad stuff. The thing about Garcia being older and more advanced than someone like Hawkins is, in fact, one of the biggest reasons I worry about his plate discipline -- because he has come much farther, and has been instructed much longer, and he still is swinging at 41% of the pitches out of the zone. When you combine that with the fact that the White Sox coaching staff (from what I glean from the media and the way most Sox hitters have acted) appears to encourage an aggressive approach, I am afraid there's a good chance, maybe even a higher than average chance, that Garcia won't actually learn to lay off said junk. Watching Viciedo make zero progress is just further reason to believe the coaching staff isn't able or willing to teach an approach that will work for Garcia.

 

Of course, it's certainly possible that Viciedo simply isn't capable of recognizing pitches and it has nothing to do with the coaching staff. Maybe Viciedo is just obstinate and all of my impressions of the coaching staff are wrong; they are trying their best. It's also possible that Garcia will never listen to the coaching staff anyway and have a revelation and change his approach for the better on his own. Or maybe he'll just be Vladimir Guerrero. I hope one these things is the case, but there is no evidence that points to them, so it must be considered less likely that they will happen than what all of the data points to. And so I'm worried about him because it doesn't look like he's in the right environment to succeed, and that's why I didn't like the acquisition. I acknowledge he has tremendous talent and potential, but I was hoping that the Sox would address their horrid immaturity at the plate by acquiring a hitting prospect that had already shown a propensity for a more mature approach, and I thought it was a real possibility because there were some logical candidates on teams that wanted Peavy.

You have certainly gone out of your way to be fair. I actually think you worry too much. Paralysis by analysis. I'm just glad the Sox got such a young guy who has already had success at the higest level no matter how brief it was. He obviously has a lot of talent. I'm not looking for reasons why he might fail. Yes ideally in a perfect world , he's not a finished product but show me more than a handful of guys at AAA who hit .375 and doesn't swing at alot of bad pitches. Then tell me you knew they were available for Peavy. In your mind you wanted more of a sure thing but it took some crazy 3 way trade just to come up with Garcia and he came from a team who needed badly to replace a guy who was going to get suspended and a team in our own division. That in itself tells me all the other guys who fit Hahns description of ML ready were not available .

[ptatc]

I still think you are reading way too far into that. I think he's merely talking about how fortunate and lucky the 2005 Sox were to only have to use 5 starting pitchers. It's the exception to the rule. Do you disagree?

I agree, but they used more than 5 during the season, which all teams need to have a successfull season. Which is also my point that he made sure to add that to the end of the sentence. The sox made it on luck because no one else has had this happen for them.

[Eminor3rd]

You have certainly gone out of your way to be fair. I actually think you worry too much. Paralysis by analysis. I'm just glad the Sox got such a young guy who has already had success at the higest level no matter how brief it was. He obviously has a lot of talent. I'm not looking for reasons why he might fail. Yes ideally in a perfect world , he's not a finished product but show me more than a handful of guys at AAA who hit .375 and doesn't swing at alot of bad pitches. Then tell me you knew they were available for Peavy. In your mind you wanted more of a sure thing but it took some crazy 3 way trade just to come up with Garcia and he came from a team who needed badly to replace a guy who was going to get suspended and a team in our own division. That in itself tells me all the other guys who fit Hahns description of ML ready were not available .

 

Yeah, definitely, I don't have any information to suggest that Garcia wasn't the best guy available, so I'll give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. It just really seemed like we were in a position to get a Garin Cecchini or Luis Sardinas or something, so I was disappointed.

 

At least we didn't get Will Middlebrooks

[cabiness42]

I agree, but they used more than 5 during the season, which all teams need to have a successfull season. Which is also my point that he made sure to add that to the end of the sentence. The sox made it on luck because no one else has had this happen for them.

 

They used Brandon McCarthy in one start of a doubleheader to avoid having anybody start on short rest. Aside from that, the five starters started every single game that season.

[Kalapse]

They used Brandon McCarthy in one start of a doubleheader to avoid having anybody start on short rest. Aside from that, the five starters started every single game that season.

Huh? McCarthy made 10 starts that year, including 4 in September.

[LittleHurt05]

Huh? McCarthy made 10 starts that year, including 4 in September.

 

Yeah, El Duque didn't pitch from May 16-June 3 and June 14-July 18.

[flavum]

Look at the 2012 Reds and Giants for rotations that didn't need much help.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yeah, definitely, I don't have any information to suggest that Garcia wasn't the best guy available, so I'll give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. It just really seemed like we were in a position to get a Garin Cecchini or Luis Sardinas or something, so I was disappointed.

 

At least we didn't get Will Middlebrooks

 

 

If Cecchini was in our system and Semien was in Boston would their standing as top 100 guys be reversed? I just think it's funny. Semien has performed the same if not better than Cecchini but everyone was clamoring for him in a Peavy deal like he's something we have never had before.

[JohnCangelosi]

Huh? McCarthy made 10 starts that year, including 4 in September.

Yes, I think he is mistaking that McCarthy start in Boston on a Monday which was a makeup from a washout a month prior. That wasn't a double header it

was a day game on Memorial day if memory serves...and he pitched excellent that game.

[Kalapse]

Yes, I think he is mistaking that McCarthy start in Boston on a Monday which was a makeup from a washout a month prior. That wasn't a double header it

was a day game on Memorial day if memory serves...and he pitched excellent that game.

He also started game 2 of a double header in Texas the week prior and was lights out. 7 baserunners and 9 K's in 14.2 IP in those 2 starts. Absolutely huge.

[witesoxfan]

He also started game 2 of a double header in Texas the week prior and was lights out. 7 baserunners and 9 K's in 14.2 IP in those 2 starts. Absolutely huge.

 

That's not even that good